Bitcoin ETF

[macson]

Yesterday several Bitcoin ETF launched in the US and had a trading volume of 4.6 billion USD. I think we can all see that this is market changing volume since people that traded the Bitcoin ETF are probably not yet invested in Bitcoin. Interestingly the huge volume was not represented on popular bitcoin exchanges, which made me wonder where the bitcoins are actually being both/sold. Does somebody has information about that topic?
Do you think that overnight/weekend gaps from the ETF are potential trading opportunities? In my mind there should be huge gaps, if for example the bitcoin price changes a lot over the weekend.

Bitcoin ETF is claimed to be able to attract the interest of older investors who have more confidence in trusted financial managers and don't want the hassle of buying and storing Bitcoin in crypto exchanges and personal wallets, but the question that crosses my mind is doesn't this Bitcoin ETF actually create Bitcoin supply doubles? cmiiw

The first appearance of the bitcoin ETF did make the price of bitcoin rise several percent, but from what i noticed, many traders tried to take profit from that flash bullishness.  Honestly, i'm still skeptical about Bitcoin ETFs, even though many say this is a good breakthrough for mass adoption, i'm not so sure, maybe i still have to study more deeply about the potential of this Bitcoin ETF.

[1715077867]

1715077867

[1715077867]

1715077867

[1715077867]

1715077867

[1715077867]

1715077867

[1715077867]

1715077867

[Lucius]

~snip~

In theory, one should distinguish between futures BTC ETFs that have existed for some time, and what is now approved, which is a physical spot ETF. The biggest difference is that futures BTC ETFs do not have actual BTC in their base, while spot ETF funds have to buy BTC in order to be able to sell shares in the fund based on that.

The majority understood that these funds will start buying BTC in order to start doing business and that consequently they will remove a certain amount of BTC from the market, which will increase the price of BTC according to the law of supply and demand. Of course, the unknown has always been how much interest investors will have in such a way of investing, but also the fact that companies like Grayscale were converted into BTC ETFs, and that they had a huge amount of BTC in their possession.

It is possible that other companies also bought before the approval, and when we take into account that all of them probably used OTC and custodial solutions, there was actually no real pressure on the market (so far). The majority of those who invested because of the possible effect of ETFs on the price decided to take profits when they saw that no pump would happen, and now we are where we are - the next big thing (in a positive sense) is the halving.

[jaberwock]

It looks like Bitcoin ETF was just another hype on the hype-train and it was priced in way way earlier but people didn't notice it. They expected a bull run to $100k... which hasn't happened yet... a bull run to $100k may still happen but it probably won't be triggered by the ETF. The next halving is a better bet now. Remember BAKKT was yuuge too but once it happened, nothing has happened. Nowadays nobody even remembers wtf BAKKT was. Seriously wtf was it about again?

No, it's not just a mere hype but it had a purpose and it can be permanent. But, is the price you mean the increase? Well, majority of us are not blind to not see it, but maybe they are only expecting something more than that. They can't believe that after the approval, the price hardly had an increase and what is more surprising is that the price had only dumped.

I guess this is due to the frustration of the public. They started dumping their coins already. You are right mate about that BAKKT thing. If you didn't mentioned it here, I won't remember it. I still believe that ETF is better than it and people won't forget it easily, if in case it also fades away.

[hZti]

the price hardly had an increase and what is more surprising is that the price had only dumped.

Well there is a very good explanation for that, that many people missed in the first place. The Greyscale Bitcoins are very expensive if you consider yearly cost of storage. SO people are now selling these to get in a cheaper Bitcoin ETF. This means people are now selling a lot of bitcoins which leads to sinking prices. They will hold their cash as long as they see that the price will go down.
If however we see an uptrend they will jump in and this will most likely result in a big spike.

[slaman29]

the price hardly had an increase and what is more surprising is that the price had only dumped.

Well there is a very good explanation for that, that many people missed in the first place. The Greyscale Bitcoins are very expensive if you consider yearly cost of storage. SO people are now selling these to get in a cheaper Bitcoin ETF. This means people are now selling a lot of bitcoins which leads to sinking prices. They will hold their cash as long as they see that the price will go down.
If however we see an uptrend they will jump in and this will most likely result in a big spike.

There's always a good explanation for everything in trading but you sorta hit it on the head saying "many people missed in the first place".

No, MOST (if not all) people missed, cause nobody said anything about it. Everyone said "ETF" boom. Period. I was saying all along ETF not gonna do anything, old news, and people overestimating impact. It was not popular.

It's so stupid to see people are selling Grayscale to buy ETF because cheaper fees lol. Buy Bitcoin. Actual Bitcoin. No storage fee.

ETF buyers aren't holders they're speculators.

[hZti]

ETF buyers aren't holders they're speculators.

While I agree to some degree with you, I have to say that bitcoin is way more complicated than people think. Yes if you want to invest a large quantity in bitcoin you can afford to buy a hardware wallet and read into it a lot. But if you just want to invest up to 500 USD it is probably not really worth your time to not just buy the ETF.

[slaman29]

ETF buyers aren't holders they're speculators.

While I agree to some degree with you, I have to say that bitcoin is way more complicated than people think. Yes if you want to invest a large quantity in bitcoin you can afford to buy a hardware wallet and read into it a lot. But if you just want to invest up to 500 USD it is probably not really worth your time to not just buy the ETF.

Speculators aren't complicated. They want to buy low and sell high (or the other way around). If they can do that without actually getting involved in all the complications of buying the asset like sourcing it and storing it and paying for security, they would.

Hence futures, hence ETF.

A guy with only 500 to invest won't start with a hardware wallet. Just a simple digital wallet, careful security, even paper wallet is better. Cheaper.

Guy with $500 doesn't want to lose 1% fees annual to ETF and KYC etc.

I know cause I had $500 and I bought BTC, not a future or ETF lol.

[MusaMohamed]

A guy with only 500 to invest won't start with a hardware wallet. Just a simple digital wallet, careful security, even paper wallet is better. Cheaper.

That person can use free open source non custodial wallet like Bitcoin Core, Electrum. If wanting more security, use those wallets with multisig wallet.

If don't have big capital and enough money to buy a hardware wallet, don't try to buy second-hand (used) hardware wallet, it is terrible practice because potential backdoors that will steal bitcoin.

[GUIDE] How to Safely Download and Verify Electrum.
Creating a multisig wallet.
Creating a cold storage wallet.

[avikz]

Do you think that overnight/weekend gaps from the ETF are potential trading opportunities? In my mind there should be huge gaps, if for example the bitcoin price changes a lot over the weekend.

I don't think so that the gaps over the weekend will become a trading opportunity. Because the ETF companies are smart enough to understand that Bitcoin market is available and operating 24/7. So they can understand that there will be price differences during the weekend closing and Monday morning. They can very well choose to block any purchase or sell request occurred during weekend.

[batang_bitcoin]

It's mostly over the counter and that's what they do. And with these, I don't think that we're going to see some overnight gains because of them. So it's a month already or close to it since we've seen them approved. We see some moves of it before the approval and then became stagnant after the approval. With that having said, we still need for some push but let it stay there and don't be worried about the ETF because they're one of the major contributors on the next cycle for this bull run which likely going to start this year and will last next year.

[TravelMug]

ETF buyers aren't holders they're speculators.

While I agree to some degree with you, I have to say that bitcoin is way more complicated than people think. Yes if you want to invest a large quantity in bitcoin you can afford to buy a hardware wallet and read into it a lot. But if you just want to invest up to 500 USD it is probably not really worth your time to not just buy the ETF.

Speculators aren't complicated. They want to buy low and sell high (or the other way around). If they can do that without actually getting involved in all the complications of buying the asset like sourcing it and storing it and paying for security, they would.

Hence futures, hence ETF.

A guy with only 500 to invest won't start with a hardware wallet. Just a simple digital wallet, careful security, even paper wallet is better. Cheaper.

Guy with $500 doesn't want to lose 1% fees annual to ETF and KYC etc.

I know cause I had $500 and I bought BTC, not a future or ETF lol.

True, and maybe if we can add though, speculators are not a long term holder, at least that's what I understand them because they will take any chance to sell just to make profits. And maybe those who are ETF buyers are not technically incline, doesn't knows the difference between online wallet or what is Electrum vs Trezor and Ledger. So they will have their own definition of long term or speculators. But for us, as you have describe, $500 and that's it, good start and then we learn the intricacies of Bitcoin and security and privacy and think that it's not that complicated at all.

[BlackBoss_]

It's mostly over the counter and that's what they do. And with these, I don't think that we're going to see some overnight gains because of them. So it's a month already or close to it since we've seen them approved. We see some moves of it before the approval and then became stagnant after the approval. With that having said, we still need for some push but let it stay there and don't be worried about the ETF because they're one of the major contributors on the next cycle for this bull run which likely going to start this year and will last next year.

Over the counter trading will be not enough for all Bitcoin Spot ETFs. They are doing this in their first month of buying bitcoin but they will not have enough bitcoin over the counter market to do it in future. We see after 2 weeks of operations, those Bitcoin Spot ETFs already bought big bitcoin amount that is nearly same as MicroStrategy has done since 2020.

Their capital size and purchasing power should not be under estimated because in fact they are big enough to absorb not only new generated bitcoins but all available bitcoins on Over The Counter market.

True, and maybe if we can add though, speculators are not a long term holder, at least that's what I understand them because they will take any chance to sell just to make profits. And maybe those who are ETF buyers are not technically incline, doesn't knows the difference between online wallet or what is Electrum vs Trezor and Ledger. So they will have their own definition of long term or speculators. But for us, as you have describe, $500 and that's it, good start and then we learn the intricacies of Bitcoin and security and privacy and think that it's not that complicated at all.

They prioritize convenience and accept risk of don't store bitcoins by themselves. They rely on two entities, Bitcoin Spot ETF and their partner to store their bitcoins. Most of Bitcoin Spot ETF choose Coinbase as a custodial entity.

In this bull market cycle, it will be affected and centralized in Bitcoin Spot ETFs and Coinbase. Let's hope Coinbase will not get bad operations like FTX because if they get such bad operation, Bitcoin market will be dumped very hard when news is brought to the light.

[slaman29]

While I agree to some degree with you, I have to say that bitcoin is way more complicated than people think. Yes if you want to invest a large quantity in bitcoin you can afford to buy a hardware wallet and read into it a lot. But if you just want to invest up to 500 USD it is probably not really worth your time to not just buy the ETF.

A guy with only 500 to invest won't start with a hardware wallet. Just a simple digital wallet, careful security, even paper wallet is better. Cheaper.

Guy with $500 doesn't want to lose 1% fees annual to ETF and KYC etc.

I know cause I had $500 and I bought BTC, not a future or ETF lol.

True, and maybe if we can add though, speculators are not a long term holder, at least that's what I understand them because they will take any chance to sell just to make profits. And maybe those who are ETF buyers are not technically incline, doesn't knows the difference between online wallet or what is Electrum vs Trezor and Ledger. So they will have their own definition of long term or speculators. But for us, as you have describe, $500 and that's it, good start and then we learn the intricacies of Bitcoin and security and privacy and think that it's not that complicated at all.
[/quote]

It's something I say many times. People mistake speculator for investor. Speculators simply aren't interested in long term benefits, they only want to make money. So ETF suits speculators. And they didn't need to wait for ETFs. Futures and derivatives are way more than enough, even cheaper and possible with leverage. ETF worked for gold because there wasn't really much you could access but Bitcoin derivatives loads existed before ETFs.

So forget the $500 guys like us waiting excitedly for ETFs it never happens