A new front of conflict China-Taiwan

[Mr. Tom]

It's a now or never time for China to invade the self ruling Island of Taiwan.

• China's population is ageing and shrinking, it would never have a larger youth population than it have today.
• China is already pretty much isolated from the world. The business are already more domestic market oriented. There are lesser effect of sanctions now.
• US invested in a multiple fronts already and having an election within a year can't afford to go on a head on war in the south china sea.
• A pipeline supply of oil and gas from Russia, even if not sufficient would make it able to fight a war. It would also enable them to directly supply Russia, Iran and it's proxies with artillery shells and missiles to engage US away. China has been hoarding and increasing the capacity for over a year now.

If China missed this opportunity, I guess they'll never be able to take taiwan by force ever.

[passwordnow]

That's not a new thing and has been circulating for how many years already. It is just going to be a matter of time when but I hope that speculation won't even happen. This can't even be solved by a peaceful talk because the US is already intervening in Taiwan's affairs and China doesn't like that.

While the allies of China can stand on their own and have their resources, China's resources are already enough to do what they have to do. Maybe it doesn't have to be an actual taking and conquering Taiwan. And they will just have to go through with their economic strategic moves like forming the BRICS and having many alliances and countries to go and join them. It's more economical but I don't know what is going to be more brutal.

[bluebit25]

I do keep feeling like OP's entire argument is completely wrong with what's going on.

China is still very strong and really, don't be fooled by the spread of unverified information. But in recent years, it is not uncommon for China to express its intention to annex Taiwan. I think at some point they will act without paying attention to the objections of other countries. I know of some discussions that maybe 2024 will be a volatile year with the political situation around the world, military hot spots still seem to show no signs of cooling down, there are also many possibilities China will not ignore the intention to annex Taiwan.

[Natsuu]

For China to grab Taiwan by force, it could stir up a big mess. Wars mean lives lost, economies messed up, and a bunch of other problems. It's usually better to talk things out than go all in with military stuff.

[kentrolla]

It would be a foolish move if Chine decides to take Taiwan by force as it cannot fight on multiple front because relationship between India and China ha not been so good and we often see some sort of skirmishes at the border so it cannot risk something like this at the moment and it is also facing internal conflict due to illegal occupation of East Turkistan aka Uygur Muslims and there has been news of unbearable brutality which is like a ticking time bomb which can explode any moment. China has to focus more on future on the land which it already rules rather than annexing Taiwan.

[Bushdark]

For now I don't think China is ready for any attack in Taiwan because the sanction is going to be here on China.
I think China is learning from Russia right now on how to behave to prevent any sanction from the United States.
China is just growing in ammunitions and weapon production and they needed enough time for them to be equipped with the right tools and information for them to have the muscles for any attack.

[Barikui1]

What i think about china taking over Taiwan is just a matter of when?
If you pay close attention to the Chinese president comment, you will know that he is just still trying to unify china and Taiwan peaceful, but if it fails, then their will be use of force, and secondly china is also paying close attention to the Russia and Ukraine war to know what to expect, how to react and navigate their way around sanctions when that time comes.

[btc78]

Other than China’s economic status, one major reason why China can not or will be having a hard time to take Taiwan by force is Taiwan’s geological location

China in no doubt has a very strong military presence but Taiwan being surrounded by waters would make it extremely hard for China to travel to Taiwan without being identified and being hit back by Taiwan

Now, Taiwan has a new president i am curious how this could affect the entire situation

[Essential10]

I don't think anything is going to happen between China and Taiwan. I have been hearing this kind of issue for a long time. But I think the ideal solution to the China-Taiwan conflict would be to form a true federal republic rather than a Chinese annexation of Taiwan. This would satisfy the wishes of both the Chinese government, which wants to maintain territorial integrity, and the Taiwan government, which wants to maintain its independence. Taiwan will have its own government and constitution, and will be responsible for its own domestic affairs while remaining a part of a larger federal system with China. It will allow economic cooperation and trade between the two countries. Speaking from my own perspective, this solution will help reduce tensions and promote stability in the region, which will benefit both the country as a whole and the international community.

[Ucy]

That could happen if Taiwan is under attack by other countries and China decides to intervane to help her, or if China is getting attacked unjustly from Taiwan, etc

I actually want China to succeed... Unfortunately it's abit hard to fight for nations that don't believe in Christian MESSIAH or are hostile to Christianity. It's as hard as leading goats to pasture and work... They are hard to guide unlike sheep and are not very obedient followers. The least they could do to attract favour is to really be humble, treat the believers over there well and don't prevent true Christainity from spreading.

Part of what is currently going well for Taiwan is support for nations that may be morally superior to China and their superior moral arguments. Not even because of the current weak leadership in Babylon. Left to that leadership alone and its allies with similar ideology, China would win

[Kelward]

What i think about china taking over Taiwan is just a matter of when?
If you pay close attention to the Chinese president comment, you will know that he is just still trying to unify china and Taiwan peaceful, but if it fails, then their will be use of force, and secondly china is also paying close attention to the Russia and Ukraine war to know what to expect, how to react and navigate their way around sanctions when that time comes.

The Russian Ukraine, war should be an eye opener for China, to consider before deciding to invade Taiwan, because they shouldn't expect it to be a stroll in the park, everybody expected that Russia, being a super power will just enter Ukraine, and impose their wish, but we've seen the resistance so far from Ukraine. China, should understand that Taiwan, has a strong ally being the US, so they have a lot to consider before taking any actions against Taiwan. Besides china and Taiwan, conflict have always been there since I can remember, I'm sure that nothing will lead to a war between them because the both sides will loose, and china, understands this.

[Hispo]

To be honest, I never truly understood the economical need of China to try to take over Taiwan. Taiwan itself is a very small and tiny island in comparison the rest of the Mainland China, China has a giant economy compared to Taiwan and also a big population.
China could easily and perfectly continue to exist without Taiwan and it's territory, so this is a political issue and has nothing to do with economy or national security of China. It is very selfish of China to co sider an Invasion, endangering thousands or millions of lives, just because their imperialist way of thinking.
It would be a great favor to the world peace if Pekin realized that and gave up on their claims over the Island of Taiwan and left those people alone with their democratic and fully functioning country.
It is just foolishness the pursue of political power through the so called reunification.

[cabron]

To be honest, I never truly understood the economical need of China to try to take over Taiwan. Taiwan itself is a very small and tiny island in comparison the rest of the Mainland China, China has a giant economy compared to Taiwan and also a big population.
China could easily and perfectly continue to exist without Taiwan and it's territory, so this is a political issue and has nothing to do with economy or national security of China. It is very selfish of China to co sider an Invasion, endangering thousands or millions of lives, just because their imperialist way of thinking.
It would be a great favor to the world peace if Pekin realized that and gave up on their claims over the Island of Taiwan and left those people alone with their democratic and fully functioning country.
It is just foolishness the pursue of political power through the so called reunification.

It's national security because if the US is in Taiwan, it still means Taiwan is not independent since it will mean it's controlled by the US.

But Taiwan is a Chinese-speaking island. Even the UN supports Taiwan as part of China so there is no need for war to unify. It's just news out there that Taiwan is a country when it's not. If there were no news and hype about that, no one would ever even know Taiwan is one of the closest islands in China.

[Hispo]

To be honest, I never truly understood the economical need of China to try to take over Taiwan. Taiwan itself is a very small and tiny island in comparison the rest of the Mainland China, China has a giant economy compared to Taiwan and also a big population.
China could easily and perfectly continue to exist without Taiwan and it's territory, so this is a political issue and has nothing to do with economy or national security of China. It is very selfish of China to co sider an Invasion, endangering thousands or millions of lives, just because their imperialist way of thinking.
It would be a great favor to the world peace if Pekin realized that and gave up on their claims over the Island of Taiwan and left those people alone with their democratic and fully functioning country.
It is just foolishness the pursue of political power through the so called reunification.

It's national security because if the US is in Taiwan, it still means Taiwan is not independent since it will mean it's controlled by the US.

But Taiwan is a Chinese-speaking island. Even the UN supports Taiwan as part of China so there is no need for war to unify. It's just news out there that Taiwan is a country when it's not. If there were no news and hype about that, no one would ever even know Taiwan is one of the closest islands in China.

The argument or the talking point all this potential conflict in Asia is because of the national security in China does not stand by its own, because it that was the case then China would have also serious geopolitical problems with both Sourh Korea and Japan, which are both allies of the United States and also hold military bases of the United States. Actually, if I recall correctly, after the Japanese defeat in the Second World War, Japan gave up their right to permanently have a military and their citizens could not longer have access to guns or swords.
Regardless of all of it, you do not see China talking in the same terms about South Korea or Japan.
Most of the people in Taiwan do not even want to be annexed to China anyways, it would seems this is rather a question on land and power over it than the will of the people, who chose to live free in democracy and away from a technological totalitarian regime.
I bet it is not comfortable to live in a social credit society, with cameras and facial recognition all around.

[Die_empty]

If China missed this opportunity, I guess they'll never be able to take taiwan by force ever.

The opportunity that you are referring to is very risky. China knows the consequences of starting a war in Taiwan. The US has vowed to defend Taiwan in the case of any attack from China which means unlike the case in Ukraine, the US will directly be involved in the war. Fighting the US is going to war with NATO and its allies which could signify a large-scale global war. From my observation, China is avoiding a confrontation with NATO that was why they never gave the needed military support. They kept disputing reports that they were supporting the invasion of Ukraine even when we all know that Putin and Xi Jinping are close friends. China will continue to do everything possible to influence the political structure of Taiwan and might not engage in any military confrontation.   

[tsaroz]

If China missed this opportunity, I guess they'll never be able to take taiwan by force ever.

The opportunity that you are referring to is very risky. China knows the consequences of starting a war in Taiwan. The US has vowed to defend Taiwan in the case of any attack from China which means unlike the case in Ukraine, the US will directly be involved in the war. Fighting the US is going to war with NATO and its allies which could signify a large-scale global war. From my observation, China is avoiding a confrontation with NATO that was why they never gave the needed military support. They kept disputing reports that they were supporting the invasion of Ukraine even when we all know that Putin and Xi Jinping are close friends. China will continue to do everything possible to influence the political structure of Taiwan and might not engage in any military confrontation.   

NATO can't get involved there if it's China attacking taiwan. US may or may not get involved considering the nature of their commitment and the circumstances but NATO being an defensive alliance won't get activated unless the attack is directly to its members.

Article 5

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”


Article 6

“For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

    on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France 2, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;

    on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.”

Article 5 and 6 of the NATO charter makes it clear. Further NATO is mostly US and all of NATO are now overwhelmed with Ukranian and Middle east conflict where they are indirectly involved. If there's a case of war in Taiwan they may still get involved the same way.
I believe its unlikely for China to attack Taiwan (I might have said the same for Russian attacking Ukranians in 2022). Because  China considers US the main opponent and the way they are trying to get over US is through science and technology. It's a common understanding in China that when they'll be rich and powerful enough, taiwan would peacefully join China. Till than, they don't want taiwan to declare independence.

[DeathAngel]

China has wanted Taiwan for a very long time. I don’t think they are brave enough to attack though because of the response there would be from other countries. If no other nation resisted then China would invade but I think China are very wary so they will not attack.