what sort of btc transaction results in a visible price move on btc ?

[Aymeric75]

Hello,


I would like to know what types of transactions on the BTC blockchain would be responsible for a consequent move of the BTC price (e.g. a move of 4USDT)

I guess several criterias are to be taken into account:

- the amount of the transaction, I guess at least 1000s of btcs would be required to have an effect on the price. Do you have any idea ?


- who is the sender and who is the receiver. For instance, if I (the receiver) buy 10k BTCs on Binance (the sender), I guess this could result in an increase of the BTC price (?).




Thanks

[Mia Chloe]

Well transactions on the Bitcoin network affects the price of Bitcoin minimally. Significant changes in Bitcoin price can be as a result of conjestions on the mempool.
Most times price is also influenced by adoption rate and hodling rate. If all whales should suddenly sell most of their Bitcoins, the price of Bitcoin will definitely go down. And the more people hodl it becomes scarce and thus the price increases. Many other factors like halving and ordinals can also affect Bitcoin price.

[Orpichukwu]

What kind of transaction are you taking about here? Withdrawing over a few hundred thousand dollars from a crypto exchange won't even be enough to shake the market in both positive and negative aspects.
 
And just sending a few dollars as well from your private wallet to an exchange wallet can't also be able to affect the market price.

The only time I think a trade or transaction will be able to affect the market price is if miners decide to offload some of their reserve, which could amount to thousands of bitcoin being placed for sale in the market, at which point pulling off such a large amount from a single exchange will be enough to cause a negative impact on the market.

[Aymeric75]

Well transactions on the Bitcoin network affects the price of Bitcoin minimally. Significant changes in Bitcoin price can be as a result of conjestions on the mempool.
Most times price is also influenced by adoption rate and hodling rate. If all whales should suddenly sell most of their Bitcoins, the price of Bitcoin will definitely go down. And the more people hodl it becomes scarce and thus the price increases. Many other factors like halving and ordinals can also affect Bitcoin price.

thanks, could you clarify what do you mean by "a result of conjestions on the mempool" ?

Also I am not familiar with the other notions you mentioned (adoption and holding rate) but I will look into it

[Mia Chloe]

Conjestions in the mempool simply means there are a lot of transactions waiting to be confirmed on the mempool. So because of that transaction fees will increase because people will now have to kind of bid for block space for their transactions. Those with higher fees will be confirmed first before those with lower fees.

So since everyone wants their transactions confirmed quickly people being to use larger fees for the block space their transaction occupies , making it to take almost forever for transactions with low fees to be confirmed.

[Aymeric75]

What kind of transaction are you taking about here? Withdrawing over a few hundred thousand dollars from a crypto exchange won't even be enough to shake the market in both positive and negative aspects.
 
And just sending a few dollars as well from your private wallet to an exchange wallet can't also be able to affect the market price.

The only time I think a trade or transaction will be able to affect the market price is if miners decide to offload some of their reserve, which could amount to thousands of bitcoin being placed for sale in the market, at which point pulling off such a large amount from a single exchange will be enough to cause a negative impact on the market.

Of course the amount of btc transfered would have to be enourmous, I am conscious of this. As a small example, for 1$ move on the btc price, it would require a transaction worth around 250 millions dollars.

My question is more: what type of sender / receiver correspond to what type of move (bull / bear). For example: if Binance send 250m dollars of bitcoin to somebody (meaning the person bought these bitcoins on Binance), what is the impact ? the price goes up ?

But maybe I was not very clear

[Zaguru12]

Well transactions on the Bitcoin network affects the price of Bitcoin minimally. Significant changes in Bitcoin price can be as a result of conjestions on the mempool.

This is not entirely correct as congestion on the mempool doesn’t trigger the price, the bitcoin network is compromising of other tokens too like BRC20 tokens which we have seen that there movement has actually caused a congestion on the mempool, so this doesn’t have any effect on bitcoin entirely but did congested the mempool. Another example is when a bitcoin is moved there is no guarantee that it is sold it could be transferred from a wallet to an exchange or vice verse which still keeps the supply and the demand; which are the two things that actually trigger a change of bitcoin price.

- who is the sender and who is the receiver. For instance, if I (the receiver) buy 10k BTCs on Binance (the sender), I guess this could result in an increase of the BTC price (?).

No this doesn’t increase the the Market price to a significant degree, more volume is needed to be moved which could at least trigger a reaction from the community before we see a market price change, example is a move of thousands or probably millions of bitcoin by many whales or miners to somewhere like exchange will cause a market shift to bearish as there will be fear of losing out, a reverse case to somewhere like wallet will cause a market raise due to FOMO

[Aymeric75]

Well transactions on the Bitcoin network affects the price of Bitcoin minimally. Significant changes in Bitcoin price can be as a result of conjestions on the mempool.

This is not entirely correct as congestion on the mempool doesn’t trigger the price, the bitcoin network is compromising of other tokens too like BRC20 tokens which we have seen that there movement has actually caused a congestion on the mempool, so this doesn’t have any effect on bitcoin entirely but did congested the mempool. Another example is when a bitcoin is moved there is no guarantee that it is sold it could be transferred from a wallet to an exchange or vice verse which still keeps the supply and the demand; which are the two things that actually trigger a change of bitcoin price.

- who is the sender and who is the receiver. For instance, if I (the receiver) buy 10k BTCs on Binance (the sender), I guess this could result in an increase of the BTC price (?).

No this doesn’t increase the the Market price to a significant degree, more volume is needed to be moved which could at least trigger a reaction from the community before we see a market price change, example is a move of thousands or probably millions of bitcoin by many whales or miners to somewhere like exchange will cause a market shift to bearish as there will be fear of losing out, a reverse case to somewhere like wallet will cause a market raise due to FOMO

Thanks, yes this was my question actually, i.e. how to identify a transaction that might result in a bearish or bullish price movement

So, to summarize, if some people sells off a lot of bitcoins to Binance, this should/could result in a bearish. And vice versa

I would love to see this in action, but for this I would need to 1) be able to see the transactions happening in the blockchain 2) filter out only the huge transactions (that may appear extremly rarely I guess, 3) observe the bitcoin price

I know how to do 3) but not the two others, any idea ?

[darkangel11]

Thanks, yes this was my question actually, i.e. how to identify a transaction that might result in a bearish or bullish price movement

You can't, although some accounts like https://twitter.com/whale_alert attempt to do so.
For example, when a long time holder, be it Microstrategy, sends a lot of coins to an exchange, you can expect them to be preparing to sell.
Analysts track known addresses belonging to mining pools to see if they accumulate or sell their coins. They also track exchange wallets to measure inflows and estimate total amount of coins held by exchanges.
That said, someone can send coins to an exchange and never sell. People sometimes do it expecting a big move, but when it doesn't come they don't sell and sometimes even send coins back to storage.

So, to summarize, if some people sells off a lot of bitcoins to Binance, this should/could result in a bearish. And vice versa

For a sale to result in a drop in price there has to be not enough buyers.
Think about it this way. You have a big seller and a big buyer. The buyer is set at 40k USD with a buy order of 1000 BTC. The price is 40100, a buyer comes in with 800 bitcoin and dumps it all. He sweeps all the buy orders above 40k and dumps the rest into that 1k buy wall. The price drops by $100 and most likely recovers when small buyers see how big of a buyer is there at 40k.
As long as the supply is faced by equal or higher demand the price will not drop.

[thecodebear]

Hello,


I would like to know what types of transactions on the BTC blockchain would be responsible for a consequent move of the BTC price (e.g. a move of 4USDT)

I guess several criterias are to be taken into account:

- the amount of the transaction, I guess at least 1000s of btcs would be required to have an effect on the price. Do you have any idea ?


- who is the sender and who is the receiver. For instance, if I (the receiver) buy 10k BTCs on Binance (the sender), I guess this could result in an increase of the BTC price (?).




Thanks

Bitcoin moving on the blockchain doesn't affect the price at all. Price is only affecting by bitcoin being traded on exchanges. The entire concept of a price only happens because bitcoin is traded on exchanges. Price has nothing at all to do with blockchain transactions.

[wallet4bitcoin]

Hello,


I would like to know what types of transactions on the BTC blockchain would be responsible for a consequent move of the BTC price (e.g. a move of 4USDT)

I guess several criterias are to be taken into account:

- the amount of the transaction, I guess at least 1000s of btcs would be required to have an effect on the price. Do you have any idea ?


- who is the sender and who is the receiver. For instance, if I (the receiver) buy 10k BTCs on Binance (the sender), I guess this could result in an increase of the BTC price (?).




Thanks

The significant move of Bitcoin price is motivated by the players in the transaction and other factors.
Often times, we do not hear any announcement about institutions buying Bitcoin until they have actually bought, if for any reason the public gets wind of information that those institutions want to buy Bitcoin, it will affect the Bitcoin price, hence, the reason why it is not announced, however, it is the reverse on the sell, it must be sold to someone in the public market.

So, people tend to see the negative values.


When the number of withdrawals from cex increases also, it suggests that it is being taken for a "hold" and this drives scarcity which further increases the price also

[Easteregg69]

So since everyone wants their transactions confirmed quickly people being to use larger fees for the block space their transaction occupies , making it to take almost forever for transactions with low fees to be confirmed.

In context.

Your BTC will be returned if the fee you have paid is to low to get your transaction in a block. It takes a long time but that will eventually happen.

Talking from experience.

[humanvelocity]

I am really confused about this question, If you send someone x amount of btc then the other person is also receiving x amount of btc hence it doesn't make any difference in the market. What could make a difference if you sell your btc in exchange of any other crypto then surely yeah i suppose you could cause a dent in the universe.

[Easteregg69]

I am really confused about this question, If you send someone x amount of btc then the other person is also receiving x amount of btc hence it doesn't make any difference in the market. What could make a difference if you sell your btc in exchange of any other crypto then surely yeah i suppose you could cause a dent in the universe.

Leverage trading can lead to exchange panic and price fluctuations.

[Aymeric75]

So, to wrap up from your answers, in order to look for the influence of BTC movements on its price, I should check the following kinds of transactions (only when big money is involved of course):


- when an exchange receives BTC = probable big sell => bearish

- when an exchange "loses" a big amount of BTC (<=> withdrawals), it creates some scarcity and btc increases

- when an institution decides to buy, it does not announce but we know it at some point, and it could incentivize people to buy BTC, so the price might increase

- when an institution decides to sell and announces it, people could associate this with a loss of value, so the price could decrease

- regarding the mining pools, I don't know what to think

[Zaguru12]

- when an exchange receives BTC = probable big sell => bearish

- when an exchange "loses" a big amount of BTC (<=> withdrawals), it creates some scarcity and btc increases

- when an institution decides to buy, it does not announce but we know it at some point, and it could incentivize people to buy BTC, so the price might increase

- when an institution decides to sell and announces it, people could associate this with a loss of value, so the price could decrease

First question yes when a big amount or volume of bitcoin is sent to an exchange it is mostly for sale because no one actually keeps a large amount of bitcoin on an exchange, so it is a direct sell off and could affect the market depending on the number of sellers and the volume or amount of bitcoin.

When large funds are withdrawn from exchanges it is mostly bought and transferring them to a personal wallet signals a sign to investors that the movers are looking to hold for long and many will react to this depending again on the volume bought

Institutions announcing there sale or buys are just trying to cause FOMO in the market by making it public nothing much the price doesn’t do a significant change on this

[Riginac111]

Well transactions on the Bitcoin network affects the price of Bitcoin minimally. Significant changes in Bitcoin price can be as a result of conjestions on the mempool.
Most times price is also influenced by adoption rate and hodling rate. If all whales should suddenly sell most of their Bitcoins, the price of Bitcoin will definitely go down. And the more people hodl it becomes scarce and thus the price increases. Many other factors like halving and ordinals can also affect Bitcoin price.

the price of Bitcoin courses the congestion of Bitcoin transactions because our experience that if bitcoin price is not high there is nothing we make the price of Bitcoin all the transactions of Bitcoin to be congested so what courses the price of Bitcoin to increase is the mind and what makes the congestion to continue his also the high price of Bitcoin because once bitcoin price is high once the mind is also high once people like to transact so the transaction of Bitcoin is what courses the transaction fee to be high and the congestion continue to happening.

In this aspect what I want us to understand is that if bitcoin price is not high will not have a large congestion but if the price is low we will have a limited congestion so that is what I noticed in Bitcoin because since the price continue to increase is when we are experiencing high fee but when the price was low nobody experiences high transaction fee so therefore it is the demand what causes the congestion, why if it is supply is higher than the demand they congestion will be also low so that is what I want everyone to understand in Bitcoin

[Aymeric75]

- when an exchange receives BTC = probable big sell => bearish

- when an exchange "loses" a big amount of BTC (<=> withdrawals), it creates some scarcity and btc increases

- when an institution decides to buy, it does not announce but we know it at some point, and it could incentivize people to buy BTC, so the price might increase

- when an institution decides to sell and announces it, people could associate this with a loss of value, so the price could decrease

First question yes when a big amount or volume of bitcoin is sent to an exchange it is mostly for sale because no one actually keeps a large amount of bitcoin on an exchange, so it is a direct sell off and could affect the market depending on the number of sellers and the volume or amount of bitcoin.

When large funds are withdrawn from exchanges it is mostly bought and transferring them to a personal wallet signals a sign to investors that the movers are looking to hold for long and many will react to this depending again on the volume bought

Institutions announcing there sale or buys are just trying to cause FOMO in the market by making it public nothing much the price doesn’t do a significant change on this

thanks for the insights

[hatshepsut93]

No transaction be changing the price of BTC, because it would be possible for whales to just manipulate the market for easy profit. They could send large amount to exchanges to cause panic, and buy the dip instead of dumping the coins. Or send coins out of exchanges to pump the price.

We really don't have any information to make decisions when we see large transactions. Could be the act of buying or selling, or could be just moving coins around.

[ObscurePen]

Bitcoin price has two components: a base value that it must be sold at or over for miners to profit/break even for their services. This value is dependent on the block difficulty. Higher difficulty requires more powerful asics to solve and thus miners have to spend more money on equipment. So it’s not really the amount of Bitcoin in one transaction that affects price, but the number of transactions occurring.
And on top of that normal supply and demand which is self explanatory