Post-ETF effect: Has Bitcoin Bottomed yet?

[EarnOnVictor]

The Bitcoin ETF saga of approval/rejection has finally been put to rest as the "approval" finally has it. But the market has never greeted it with much excitement as it sold on that very day of approval but rose sharply to hit a little above $49,000 the next day before plummeting ever since then. This is no doubt a short-term setback for Bitcoin even as we expect the positive effect of halving on the coin. Also, I hope that this short-term bearish trend, (perhaps I should call it a correction of the main bullish trend) will not grow into a more determined bearishness that will put the coin under further pressure.

As it is now, since last week, I knew that Bitcoin would fall but I expected it to be held by the support level of the 1D Fibo level of 38.2% at $40243 as you can see on my chart below. The market hit the level yesterday and sharply rebounded to record a daily high of $42,143. This indicates that it respected the level and buyers pended their position at the level or closer levels. A sustainable bullish price action above the level, in my opinion, might be the end of the recent bearish view and will bring about the resumption of the whole bullish trend to retarget above $49,000.

But first, the resistance level of the 1D Fibo level of 23.6% at $43,606 must be successfully breached higher, while a daily close above the level will ascertain it. However, a successful breach of the 1D Fibo level of 38.2% at $40243 will cause more bearish pressure that will eventually unveil $37,519, which is the 1D's 50% Fibo level before any bullish consideration will ever be possible.

This is my view guys. What are your views about the current Bitcoin status?

[Oshosondy]

This is my view guys. What are your views about the current Bitcoin status?

From my analyses, if there would be any bear market that will significantly make bitcoin to stay below $40000, the price will still likely bounce back above $40000. But if it continues and stay for a long time without bouncing back or getting below the price several times, more bearish market may get the price fall to $38000 but which might get to $36500 if the bears continue to dominate. But I can see another resistance at $38000-$38500.

But bitcoin price is not predictable, anything can happen, the price might fall more, but the chance is less likely. But if bitcoin the price fall more, it is highly predicted that the price will never fall below $30000 ever again even if it falls to $30000.

The best that can be done is to DCA so that you can buy at varying price. I do not think the price of bitcoin will increase for now. What we are waiting for now is halving and its positive effect on bitcoin price.

[mk4]

I don't think we can assume bottoms in the near future until Grayscale sells whatever amount of BTC they need to sell. Safe to assume that they've been a good chunk of the sell pressure we had since few days ago; and the selling should continue on Monday.

[Wiwo]

I never expected bitcoin to act anything otherwise to what it current price and market conditions are, many times, it is proven already that bitcoin doesn't follow any particular directions and at that, bitcoin would just act accordingly to what pressure the market positions brings it ways.

So it was just based on speculations that many believe that bitcoin ETF approval will trigger the market uptrend, well bitcoin is not a rocket science tools and for that, bitcoin mostly never follow the hypes and trends but then this can have a long terms effects on the price of bitcoin in the long run.

[electronicash]

This is my view guys. What are your views about the current Bitcoin status?

it hasn't bottomed yet that's what they say. some analysis i've read was that the bottom price could be $32k. if what they are saying is true then there is a chance that a huge dump will come before the bounce that will trigger the massive bull run.

i think it will take weeks before the price bounce. it's a gradual decline in price that is torturing holders on whether to decide to sell or not.
here's a good example https://twitter.com/naiivememe/status/1747997275887136938

[Jegileman]

I don’t see us reaching the bottom already. The market is still very much volatile and that can be said from the massive sell off. ETF will still play a significant role in this market, maybe not now but very soon before the halving will take place. The direction it is going now was now expected by anyone and when we are all carried away from the thought of it that is when I think it will show its true effect to the market. As we await the halving and not knowing when the bottom will be reached, it is better to continue accumulating before it recovers and start going up in price again.

[TravelMug]

I think there will be more minor dip, if I'm not mistaken, CME’s Bitcoin futures contract which expires every last Friday of the month, is going to put a lot of selling pressures this 26th. So not to burst the bubble, who knows, maybe we can go as low and break $40k again, just saying.

If the price will not go down, or there will be no selling pressures, then good, but from what I have observed, when we are close to CME or even CBoE expirations, regardless of Post-ETF effect, prices will go south.

[STT]

Buy on strengths rather then the hope of ceased weaknesses.   We can go sideways while not really resolving anything, at present I'd put us into a downtrend until proven otherwise.  Reasoning being multiple fronts or questions over momentum and resolution of the selling as OP  mentions.  So since the 8th of Jan its possible to draw in a downtrend that though challenged has not yet been negated fully, wait for that to play out before assuming we can resume upwards.  I think we face multiple hurdles in that respect still.

[nelson4lov]

Does anyone know how we can track how much BTC Grayscale has sold so far? I know how much colder potentially be sold but no idea how much has been sold so far in order to realistically know when to expect buy pressure to pick up. The temporal downtrend will end when Grayscale finishes selling BTC. We'd have interesting times ahead. I'm even surprised that BTC is still above the $40K level. It should be somewhere around $35K judging from the selling pressure in recent days.

[davis196]

The "Bitcoin ETF approval" hype has already been consumed by the market and the traders right now are selling and taking the profits.
I expect a stagnant/bearish market in the first half of 2024 and a post-Bitcoin halving bull run in the second half of 2024.
There's nothing to worry about, even if the price drops down to 30K USD. The market will have more bull runs this year.
I think that historically(except the beginning of 2021) January and February aren't very bullish months for Bitcoin. I know that such historical comparisons can't be always accurate, but some traders keep paying attention to this kind of data.

[Zaguru12]

The "Bitcoin ETF approval" hype has already been consumed by the market and the traders right now are selling and taking the profits.
I expect a stagnant/bearish market in the first half of 2024 and a post-Bitcoin halving bull run in the second half of 2024.
There's nothing to worry about, even if the price drops down to 30K USD. The market will have more bull runs this year.
I think that historically(except the beginning of 2021) January and February aren't very bullish months for Bitcoin. I know that such historical comparisons can't be always accurate, but some traders keep paying attention to this kind of data.

I also predicted a bearish trend in the first quarter of this year but the hype around the ETF approval wanted to shift the focus of the market following a regular pattern of past trends that before halving the bearish sentiment takes effect. Right now with this market swing been caused by some institutional sales like Garyscale we need to relax to understand how the market reacts to it. The selling pressure is definitely settling in but still the $40k support level seems firm to be broken but if this sell power persists then we might be at seeing it breaking that support as others predicted above. The upward trend line has been broken out by bitcoin and a retest has been done but if another retest is done again and the trend doesn’t go back into the trend line then the &40k support will be broken and a new $38500 -$37000 new support will be set

[jossiel]

Without that much technical explanation about what was happening. I'll apply the logic about going up and low.

Like when the market's high, everyone should expect that there's an upcoming drop. In short, if something comes down then it should come up anytime soon.

If Bitcoin has bottomed already, we'll start to see the newer higher lows soon but before that there's the halving coming soon and it's the same with the effect of Bitcoin Spot ETF that it will take time to impact.

[adaseb]

It will probably bottom when they don’t sell $500M worth of bitcoins every day. So far every day it’s been half a billion. We are able to absorb most of this with the inflows from the other etfs but eventually these inflows will start to decline more and more.

So they either need to sell less or the market needs to buy more of the shares for the etfs to generate enough inflows. It’s looking very bearish especially at the Asian open and we are just dumping towards the $40k area.

[Hamphser]

It will probably bottom when they don’t sell $500M worth of bitcoins every day. So far every day it’s been half a billion. We are able to absorb most of this with the inflows from the other etfs but eventually these inflows will start to decline more and more.

So they either need to sell less or the market needs to buy more of the shares for the etfs to generate enough inflows. It’s looking very bearish especially at the Asian open and we are just dumping towards the $40k area.

Not really shocking, they've been able to accumulate when Bitcoins price is still $20k+ then what would be expecting? of course they would really be deciding on unloading their bags on which it would really be just that normal that they would really be that selling those coins for profits and its none of our business on how they would really be handling their coins. Even if we dont like for those coins to be sold
then there's nothing we can do if they have decided on getting profits which its a typical thing and easy money considering that they had bought on the bottom or much cheaper.
We do know that fundamentals doesnt always work crypto on which it could neither effect or not the market positively or really just being neutral.
Bottom? Everything hasnt bottomed yet, we should wait pre-halving and post halving season on which these are the times or moments where extreme dips happen.

[JayTrain]

I was honestly surprised by the market going down after the ETF approval. It's either a prolonged correction or something else that regular crypto enthusiasts might not be aware of. In such times, the key is to stay calm and wait until the ETF market adjusts to the new financial asset. After all, it primarily involves traditional finances and companies. Bitcoin is something new for them, so they are likely approaching it cautiously. Patience is crucial in these situations.

[d5000]

I don't think we can assume bottoms in the near future until Grayscale sells whatever amount of BTC they need to sell. Safe to assume that they've been a good chunk of the sell pressure we had since few days ago; and the selling should continue on Monday.

According to this Coindesk article, the biggest selling pressure could be over (or close to over) though.

Investors have sold more than $2 billion worth of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) since it was converted into an exchange-traded fund earlier this month.
A large chunk of that exodus was FTX's bankruptcy estate dumping 22 million shares, according to private data CoinDesk reviewed and two people familiar with the matter.

Nonetheless, the selling could continue a bit, but not caused by such events, but by trader psychology. Now that we're already seen dips below 40k, some will wonder if a bearish wave pattern is forming, and may be cautious with new buys. I think also the fact that the ETF top was close to the psychological barrier of 50k may play a role.

[LogitechMouse]

~
But first, the resistance level of the 1D Fibo level of 23.6% at $43,606 must be successfully breached higher, while a daily close above the level will ascertain it. However, a successful breach of the 1D Fibo level of 38.2% at $40243 will cause more bearish pressure that will eventually unveil $37,519, which is the 1D's 50% Fibo level before any bullish consideration will ever be possible.

This is my view guys. What are your views about the current Bitcoin status?

It seems like the $40,000 psychological support has broken, and currently the price of Bitcoin by the time I'm posting this is at around $39,700.
I think it's too early to say that we will see Bitcoin staying below $40,000 since we are only seeing this happening for a few hours only, but looking at the daily chart of Bitcoin base on what OP has shared, it seems like Bitcoin will continue to go down in the upcoming days.

It seems like the acceptance of a Spot Bitcoin ETF has more negative effects towards in the market than positive. I think Grayscale dumping some Bitcoins have an effect on this (correct me though. Nevertheless, I expect a more bearish weeks for the crypto market.

Well, every dip is an opportunity, so take this opportunity to buy more Bitcoin at a lower price.

[armanda90]

Has bitcoin bottomed yet right now? interested question after ETF bitcoin approval and for the first time this year bitcoin broken the support price until $39,400, usually have prediction with bottom or support bitcoin price around $40k but can't stable before bitcoin going dump drastically with ETF effect. Do you have assumption behind ETF approval have manipulation make bitcoin have going to lower price.

Unfortunately, the acceptable ETF bitcoin approval have more negative than positive effect looking bitcoin trend keep going down since first time ETF approval published. Still can't predict until how much bitcoin lower price again before bounce back to higher price and reach another new highest price for this year.

[Yamane_Keto]

IF you zoom out



Rumors about ETFs started in October, when the price was at $27,000, and from there the price continued to rise, reaching $49,000. The price almost doubled due to ETFs, and it is healthy to see a correction in this price. The correction may lead us in the short term to $37,000 to $35,000, but inevitably To be a starting point for a new rise, as it is unlikely that we will see $20,000 again, and after the price rise, it is unlikely that we will see $30,000 again. Start worrying if we drop below $27,000 and not $40,000.

[pooya87]

I wasn't expecting a big rise after ETF since it was mostly empty hype without an actual direct and immediate effect on the price but I was expecting a small rise at the very least. With the drop out of nowhere and without reason the only conclusion is market manipulation and panic sell specially when you consider that we are at the pre-halving-period which is known to be a bullish trend!

Has it bottomed? Probably not but the dump doesn't seem to have the biggest strength to continue for that long.