Bitcoin Spot ETF Tracker

[tranthidung]

Yes it’s nice seeing the GBTC flows decline and for us to have positive flows for the rest of the etfs.

I think since we seem to be having more small bank issues like we did back in March 2023, we might see bitcoin get even more flows as more small and medium banks get seized by fdic. Seems that since the BTFP is ending that there will be more pain in the banking sectors.

People will no longer feel safe keeping their money in banks and will search for a better alternative such as bitcoin.

• Despite of selling pressure from Grayscale, the trend is positively up and I believe it will be very greenish in coming months.
• Total Bitcoin bought and hold by those Bitcoin Spot ETFs, excludes Grayscale, will surpass MicroStrategy holding soon. They are going to achieve it after only 2 weeks of accumulation.
• My thinking is I don't care about what they are doing behind the scene but with their accumulation, they will hold those bitcoins (on behalf of customers obviously) and will contribute to reduce circulating supply on exchanges.

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[thecodebear]

Yes it’s nice seeing the GBTC flows decline and for us to have positive flows for the rest of the etfs.

I think since we seem to be having more small bank issues like we did back in March 2023, we might see bitcoin get even more flows as more small and medium banks get seized by fdic. Seems that since the BTFP is ending that there will be more pain in the banking sectors.

People will no longer feel safe keeping their money in banks and will search for a better alternative such as bitcoin.

• Despite of selling pressure from Grayscale, the trend is positively up and I believe it will be very greenish in coming months.
• Total Bitcoin bought and hold by those Bitcoin Spot ETFs, excludes Grayscale, will surpass MicroStrategy holding soon. They are going to achieve it after only 2 weeks of accumulation.
• My thinking is I don't care about what they are doing behind the scene but with their accumulation, they will hold those bitcoins (on behalf of customers obviously) and will contribute to reduce circulating supply on exchanges.

Oh that top chart is a really useful graphic!

[franky1]

previously GBTC was dissolving shares to sell its position(DCG owned coin) to pay down gemini/genesis/ftx debt
which caused the spot market to dip, because DCG wanted the cash
(cash leaving the spot markets to pay off debt)

then other AP who bought gbtc shares voted to dissolve the shares and then OTC sold coin to unlock them from grayscale holdings and instantly buy them back to lock into other ETF thus not cause spot public market changes(cash didnt leave the markets)

stats as of today for main etf's
blackrock: 70,005btc
grayscale: 478,337btc

blackrock: 66,200.01 (previous day blackrock: 63,488) +2,712
grayscale: 482,592 (previous day Grayscale: 487,025) -4,433

^blackrock taking 61% of grayscales share dissolvements(redemptions)

blackrock gained 3805 since last update
grayscale lost 4,255 since last update
^blackrock taking 89% of grayscales share dissolvements(redemptions)


the image above talking about how other etf totalled 170k coin buy. is not representing 170k of open public spot exchange coin buys.. but the ETF swaps from GBTC
because grayscales now 478k coin +170k other etf = ~648k which was grayscales holding last month pre etf launch

so ETF's are not buying heaps of coin from the open spot market.. YET

[thecodebear]

Slow day for Fidelity yesterday for some reason. Blackrock picked up a few thousand bitcoin as usual, but Fidelity only picked up around 800. Super low for them. So the net bitcoin in ETFs only grew slightly yesterday because of that. That following 3 days during which Fidelity picked up 12,986 BTC, or 4300+ per day.

[CODE200]

Very interesting to see that most of this companies are using Coinbase exchange as their custodian, except VanEck using Gemini exchange and only Fidelity is using self-custody.
This tells you we still have long road ahead of us until people realize importance of self-custody and holding your own keys.
Shut down, compromise or hack Coinbase and most of this ETF's are gone.

If Coinbase gets hacked, that's probably the only time that they'll be doing something about self-custody, it's actually a smart thing for most of them to use Coinbase though, wouldn't that mean that they're going to be selling their bitcoins much faster than Fidelity since they're the ones that are using self-custody? Or there's something in the works that's making all of this still work the same for all of them to their favor, you know like cash first and then get the bitcoins later because there's delay something like that. I believe that it's not a long road anymore though, as adoption gets more widespread, I think that it gets more people to be aware that we should consider storing bitcoins for ourselves and the information availability and delivery is much faster than ever so I believe that it's slowly going up from here when it comes to self-custody of your crypto.

[thecodebear]

I don't know if you all have been following how much daily bitcoin ETFs are buying, but its getting pretty nuts.


First half of last week net buying actually slowed down considerably, but second half of last week and beginning of this week ETFs are piling HUGE numbers into Bitcoin, even while Grayscale selling has dropped down to under 2000 btc per day.

Last two days of last week net buying was ~8600 bitcoin and ~12,100 bitcoin.

Yesterday's data is now out:
- 1900 btc sold by Grayscale.
- While Blackrock alone picked up about 7500 btc! Fidelity picked up just over 3000 btc.
- And some of the other ETFs the past few days are starting to pick up a more bitcoin on a daily basis than they had been before.
- ~10,200 net bitcoin bough yesterday. Price was roughly $50k yesterday so that's just over $500 million net buying yesterday.

There was a lull recently in ETF buying, probably just investors not being sure when Bitcoin would recover from the post-ETF dip, but now with the price ripping since middle of last week ETF investors have been going on a buying spree!

Between Thursday, Friday, and Monday they've picked up about 30,900 bitcoin, which at the current price of $49.5k has added $1.5 billion to the ETFs assets under management. In just three business days!

The ETF market is extremely healthy and we can see them reacting the same as the spot market - they get excited and buy more when the price goes up. Just a week ago it looked like daily net buying was going to settle under $100 million already but now its up at half a billion a day.


ETF market including Grayscale currently has about 691k bitcoin. Of course we have no idea how the daily buying will go up and down in the future but ETFs could be at a million bitcoin by the halving, which would take over 6000 btc net daily buying from now until the halving (which may or may not happen but it should at least be fairly close if it doesn't hit a million by then). Presumably the non-Grayscale ETFs would be around 600k btc when the market hits a million btc. Grayscale had like 620k bitcoin when the ETFs launched, so when they all hit a million that'll be 380k net buying in just 3.5 months if it can do this by the halving. I think few people knew how strong TradFi interest in Bitcoin would be already. I figured it would only maybe get to $5 - $10 billion in the first few months, but it may pass $20 billion net buying in just a few months.

[GreatArkansas]

Very interesting to see that most of this companies are using Coinbase exchange as their custodian, except VanEck using Gemini exchange and only Fidelity is using self-custody.
This tells you we still have long road ahead of us until people realize importance of self-custody and holding your own keys.
Shut down, compromise or hack Coinbase and most of this ETF's are gone.

If Coinbase gets hacked, that's probably the only time that they'll be doing something about self-custody, it's actually a smart thing for most of them to use Coinbase though, wouldn't that mean that they're going to be selling their bitcoins much faster than Fidelity since they're the ones that are using self-custody? Or there's something in the works that's making all of this still work the same for all of them to their favor, you know like cash first and then get the bitcoins later because there's delay something like that. I believe that it's not a long road anymore though, as adoption gets more widespread, I think that it gets more people to be aware that we should consider storing bitcoins for ourselves and the information availability and delivery is much faster than ever so I believe that it's slowly going up from here when it comes to self-custody of your crypto.

For me, this is the biggest challenge right now. How do these companies protect their Bitcoins, or me, there's nothing wrong about using another third-party company for their Bitcoin because it's not their field to protect Bitcoins so for me, it's better than doing self custody, these ETF companies must only focus on what they are doing.

[franky1]

even while Grayscale selling has dropped down to under 2000 btc per day.

side note. DCG(genesis) gained control over ~27,800btc controllable coin from winning a courtcase that seen in favour of genesis being owners of 31.2m GBTC shares that were in LOCKED in dispute with the gemini(earn) case.. so those coins are free to move now
(31.2m shares at @0.00089309btc per share= 27,864btc)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/genesis-wins-dispute-with-gemini-over-ownership-of-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-shares-d035c006

sidenote.
DCG owe another $2b (~40,000btc) in other court case. (was $1b now $3b in dispute)
https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2024-02/genesis-amended-complaint.pdf
 so expect DCG(grayscale) to sell them 31.2 GBTC shares now they are open to move and in DCG control

[thecodebear]

Very interesting to see that most of this companies are using Coinbase exchange as their custodian, except VanEck using Gemini exchange and only Fidelity is using self-custody.
This tells you we still have long road ahead of us until people realize importance of self-custody and holding your own keys.
Shut down, compromise or hack Coinbase and most of this ETF's are gone.

If Coinbase gets hacked, that's probably the only time that they'll be doing something about self-custody, it's actually a smart thing for most of them to use Coinbase though, wouldn't that mean that they're going to be selling their bitcoins much faster than Fidelity since they're the ones that are using self-custody? Or there's something in the works that's making all of this still work the same for all of them to their favor, you know like cash first and then get the bitcoins later because there's delay something like that. I believe that it's not a long road anymore though, as adoption gets more widespread, I think that it gets more people to be aware that we should consider storing bitcoins for ourselves and the information availability and delivery is much faster than ever so I believe that it's slowly going up from here when it comes to self-custody of your crypto.

For me, this is the biggest challenge right now. How do these companies protect their Bitcoins, or me, there's nothing wrong about using another third-party company for their Bitcoin because it's not their field to protect Bitcoins so for me, it's better than doing self custody, these ETF companies must only focus on what they are doing.

I don't believe Coinbase has ever even been hacked. At least I don't ever remember hearing about a Coinbase hack. Coinbase customers have been hacked of course but I don't think the exchange itself has been hacked. While probably every single other exchange has been hacked at some point or even multiple times.

And I'm sure their institutional custody service has plenty more safeguards than their consumer services. I would think the bitcoin being held in Coinbase for these ETFs is quite safe. Of course its always a small worry, but since institutions need an actual custody plan (unlike individuals who can just hold their private keys themselves) I think Coinbase is probably the safest option for them, which is likely why most of them chose Coinbase.


And as for the original comment, I think a lot of Bitcoiners don't understand that most people want convenience, and don't want to have to worry about key management. Especially for people who are buying an ETF which means they are ONLY using Bitcoin as an investment and will never be using that Bitcoin as a currency. The future ecosystem of Bitcoin is going to be a mix of self-banking bitcoiners who control their own money, people trusting institutions to custody their bitcoin just like the use banks for fiat, and just owning bitcoin purely as an investment vehicle through ETFs. While purists may say only the first option is acceptable, and certainly that is the best advice, if you want Bitcoin to be adopted globally you have to accept that there will eventually likely be billions of people in the second two options (along with hopefully billions of people in the first option as well).

[thecodebear]

even while Grayscale selling has dropped down to under 2000 btc per day.

side note. DCG(genesis) gained control over ~27,800btc controllable coin from winning a courtcase that seen in favour of genesis being owners of 31.2m GBTC shares that were in LOCKED in dispute with the gemini(earn) case.. so those coins are free to move now
(31.2m shares at @0.00089309btc per share= 27,864btc)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/genesis-wins-dispute-with-gemini-over-ownership-of-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-shares-d035c006

sidenote.
DCG owe another $2b (~40,000btc) in other court case. (was $1b now $3b in dispute)
https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2024-02/genesis-amended-complaint.pdf
 so expect DCG(grayscale) to sell them 31.2 GBTC shares now they are open to move and in DCG control

Good site notes. No doubt there will be more bouts of large selling coming from Grayscale for the 2022 collapses that have yet to settle their debts. I'm sure these will lead to a few red days for ETFs when these things get dumped. But those odd red days will be among a sea of 9-dollar-figure green days.

[franky1]

even while Grayscale selling has dropped down to under 2000 btc per day.

side note. DCG(genesis) gained control over ~27,800btc controllable coin from winning a courtcase that seen in favour of genesis being owners of 31.2m GBTC shares that were in LOCKED in dispute with the gemini(earn) case.. so those coins are free to move now
(31.2m shares at @0.00089309btc per share= 27,864btc)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/genesis-wins-dispute-with-gemini-over-ownership-of-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-shares-d035c006

sidenote.
DCG owe another $2b (~40,000btc) in other court case. (was $1b now $3b in dispute)
https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2024-02/genesis-amended-complaint.pdf
 so expect DCG(grayscale) to sell them 31.2 GBTC shares now they are open to move and in DCG control

Good site notes. No doubt there will be more bouts of large selling coming from Grayscale for the 2022 collapses that have yet to settle their debts. I'm sure these will lead to a few red days for ETFs when these things get dumped. But those odd red days will be among a sea of 9-dollar-figure green days.

i expect no green or red days of spot as a result.. just a custody backroom shuffle from one etf(grayscale selling) and other ETF buying. thus balance each other out

[thecodebear]

even while Grayscale selling has dropped down to under 2000 btc per day.

side note. DCG(genesis) gained control over ~27,800btc controllable coin from winning a courtcase that seen in favour of genesis being owners of 31.2m GBTC shares that were in LOCKED in dispute with the gemini(earn) case.. so those coins are free to move now
(31.2m shares at @0.00089309btc per share= 27,864btc)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/genesis-wins-dispute-with-gemini-over-ownership-of-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-shares-d035c006

sidenote.
DCG owe another $2b (~40,000btc) in other court case. (was $1b now $3b in dispute)
https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2024-02/genesis-amended-complaint.pdf
 so expect DCG(grayscale) to sell them 31.2 GBTC shares now they are open to move and in DCG control

Good site notes. No doubt there will be more bouts of large selling coming from Grayscale for the 2022 collapses that have yet to settle their debts. I'm sure these will lead to a few red days for ETFs when these things get dumped. But those odd red days will be among a sea of 9-dollar-figure green days.

i expect no green or red days of spot as a result.. just a custody backroom shuffle from one etf(grayscale selling) and other ETF buying. thus balance each other out

oh yeah I doubt it'll directly affect spot, at least not in a significant way. But if any of these things get dumped quickly, like hundreds of millions of dollars worth in a single day, we might see the occasional ETF red days like we saw the first couple weeks of ETFs.

But yeah I mean if the other ETFs buy up like $300 million dollars on a day when Grayscale dumps $400 million, that'd be $100 million red day for ETFs and $100 million of selling that the OTC market at large would have to cover that day. I have no idea the daily liquidity or volume of the OTC market, but I wouldn't expect much affect on spot markets even if that bled a bit over to the spot market, because the spot market itself is volatile enough and large enough that a bit of daily overflow selling from OTC to spot would be unlikely to make a noticeable difference that one could point to.

I'm guessing these allotments would be dumped over numerous days anyway to intentionally try not to cause slippage in the market price, as that is kinda the whole point of OTC markets.

[franky1]

my view

grayscale has already lost 28% of its pre-launch holdings in one month.
so lets fast forward 3months time.. other ETF will then be having to majority buy from spot open exchanges and/or miners
meaning less supply/more demand on spot markets

ETF's are not looking for a scheme that lasts 6 months, they have business plans set for the next 5-10 years. and so forward-looking, the impacts on spot will come forth. its still the "early adopter" stage for them

pension plans only diversify/adjust portfolio/divest(from trad-fi) every quarter on average, so yet to see many pension plans buy into bitcoin etf shares. thus the buckets of coins needed now, compared to later years is a big difference.

things will shift to greener pastures. but not this month

as for your thoughts that these ETF institutions will use the coin to manipulate spot via day trading.
when locking coin into custody, there are contracts involved when assigning shares pegged. these cant simply be released as easy as you think, nor can the institutions fractionally reserve double trade their collateral. SEC has rules to prevent this

EG
the deals to move out grayscales 28% so far are not made same-day. they are plans made pre launch where grayscale had a queue and a daily limit.

[franky1]

today blackrock hit 105,000btc.. a 10kcoin rise from last update yesterday
yesterday had 95k which was a 7.5k increase from the weekend

gaining more coins per day than its usual queue in the line, biting at the grayscale(outflow) pie
seems this week ETF's are getting hungrier and grayscales depletion schedule is not enough

[thecodebear]

today blackrock hit 105,000btc.. a 10kcoin rise from last update yesterday
yesterday had 95k which was a 7.5k increase from the weekend

gaining more coins per day than its usual queue in the line, biting at the grayscale(outflow) pie
seems this week ETF's are getting hungrier and grayscales depletion schedule is not enough

Dear god. The previous 3 business days had insane net inflows for ETFs (>8k, >12k, ~10k), but blackrock doing 10k by itself is nuts. Sounds like yesterday is going to be the biggest day yet, except for probably the first day of ETFs.


TradFi investors are getting FOMO as they see the price hit $50k.



Random thought: I'm reminded that there were people, I believe even on this site and that I saw elsewhere on the internet, who claimed that ETFs would be a flop because anyone in the US who wanted a Bitcoin ETF would have already gotten into the Canadian ETFs that were approved a few years ago. lol, those people are sorely disappointed.

[franky1]

Random thought: I'm reminded that there were people, I believe even on this site and that I saw elsewhere on the internet, who claimed that ETFs would be a flop because anyone in the US who wanted a Bitcoin ETF would have already gotten into the Canadian ETFs that were approved a few years ago. lol, those people are sorely disappointed.

canada has its own stock/shares market.?.?. never heard of it! (satire)
NASDAQ, hard to avoid it

american employers invest their employees pension in american shares of american markets... simple as that

[franky1]

anyone else notice
BITCO (investco galaxy)
https://www.coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf/BTCO

has been stuck at ~6.1k for the last month.. whilst the others have been grabbing coins by the multiple basket full
i feel we already have our first ETF  weak-hand tap-out

[thecodebear]

Last week the ETFs bought net 44k bitcoin. At $52k price thats $2.288 billion of bitcoin. In one week. Things are getting pretty nuts. Will be interesting to see if that ends up being an outlier week or if we should get used to the ETFs scooping up one or two billion dollars of bitcoin on a weekly basis...which would create a MAJOR supply shock once the halving drops network issuance down to 450 btc/day.

[tranthidung]

anyone else notice
BITCO (investco galaxy)
https://www.coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf/BTCO

has been stuck at ~6.1k for the last month.. whilst the others have been grabbing coins by the multiple basket full
i feel we already have our first ETF  weak-hand tap-out

It was predicted that only some of 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs will continue operations next one or two years like only 3 to 5 Bitcoin Spot ETFs will be able to attract investors and competitive enough to keep operation running without need to close their service.

It's fair competition among different companies with a same product. Investco Galaxy with this signal of lack of capital from investors, will be in list of possible disappear Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
Grayscale outflow continues to decrease and shrink since beginning of February.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs just have a best day since its start with about $2B combined trading volume in a single day.

[thecodebear]

Bitcoin Spot ETFs just have a best day since its start with about $2B combined trading volume in a single day.

Yeah I read earlier that today two of the smaller ETFs had their volume for the day hit dozens of times their normal daily volume. They had no idea why, but guessed that perhaps their ETFs got added to some fund as that seems like it would be the only thing that makes sense. Recently I heard someone....maybe Anthony Pompliano...talk about how beyond just people buying into the ETFs, investment firms are going to start adding the Bitcoin ETFs as a small percentage into their managed funds to improve those funds. So Bitcoin ETFs are going to end up in all sorts of portfolios that way and that going to really expand how much money is going into the ETFs. I guess its possible those two small BTC ETFs got added to some managed funds on Tuesday.