Bitcoin Spot ETF Tracker

[franky1]

Yeah I read earlier that today two of the smaller ETFs had their volume for the day hit dozens of times their normal daily volume. They had no idea why, but guessed that perhaps their ETFs got added to some fund as that seems like it would be the only thing that makes sense.

see the chart, the purple(HODL(vaneck)).. on the right most stick
its not as big as orange(IBIT(blackrock)) so not like its sky rocketing to top investment, even green(FBTC(fidelity)) has had bigger days
but purple(HODL(vaneck)) compared to its own previous days of the thin horizontal line mean yeah 1000x, so it sounds huge when only comparing it to its own previous position..
but not like 1000x of IBIT, nor 10x of IBIT, nor 1.1x of IBIT
so its not huge in the scheme of investments. but more of a sign they finally found a customer or finally stopped hiding behind a closed door and now joined the party

im sure they know why.. going from no business at all to sudden activity. seems more like a question of they need to explain their lack of business for 6 weeks

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[thecodebear]

Yeah I read earlier that today two of the smaller ETFs had their volume for the day hit dozens of times their normal daily volume. They had no idea why, but guessed that perhaps their ETFs got added to some fund as that seems like it would be the only thing that makes sense.

see the chart, the purple(HODL(vaneck)).. on the right most stick
its not as big as orange(IBIT(blackrock)) so not like its sky rocketing to top investment, even green(FBTC(fidelity)) has had bigger days
but purple(HODL(vaneck)) compared to its own previous days of the thin horizontal line mean yeah 1000x, so it sounds huge when only comparing it to its own previous position..
but not like 1000x of IBIT, nor 10x of IBIT, nor 1.1x of IBIT
so its not huge in the scheme of investments. but more of a sign they finally found a customer or finally stopped hiding behind a closed door and now joined the party

im sure they know why.. going from no business at all to sudden activity. seems more like a question of they need to explain their lack of business for 6 weeks

Yeah I wasn't trying to say these small ETFs suddenly are gonna start doing thousands of bitcoin inflows a day. I was just saying they got tons of volume yesterday out of nowhere.

And the CEO of VanEck legitimately said he has no idea where the trading volume came from, because it wasn't just a few big orders, but many thousands of individual orders. I think it was like ~32,000 orders yesterday for Van Eck whereas they normally have maybe a few hundred or maybe ~1000 a day. So his best guess was their ETF got added to some managed investment fund so everyone moving in and out of that managed fund was suddenly moving in and out of their ETF. Makes sense. Will be interesting to see what the actual inflow for those ETFs is for yesterday. Volume doesn't necessarily mean a ton of net inflow, but I gotta imagine it'll be a significantly larger inflow than they are used to getting if those ETFs are now part of other funds.


The other one was the Wisdom Tree ETF which is by far the smallest ETF, but you can see on the top of that chart in the light blue their volume went from barely visible to quite large yesterday.

[tranthidung]

The trend is going to be strong as the chart for daily bought / sold Bitcoin by Bitcoin Spot ETFs shows. They are going to 300,000 BTC bought BTC that is a huge number after only 29 days of trading. BlackRock are leading and outperforming other ETFs.

Additionally, Bitcoin exchange balance has dropped a lot since day 1 of Bitcoin Spot ETF trading according data from Coinglass.
https://www.coinglass.com/Balance

[OgNasty]

I'm a little bit surprised that GBTC continues to have so many owners.  I wonder if they're motivated by thinking the price will continue to rise or if they are just not aware they could get exposure elsewhere with a lower fee...  The only thing that could make any sense to me is if they feel they're better off leaving their money where it is and avoiding paying any gains taxes they may be sitting on, as they feel the loss of money from taxes might hurt their future return when switching to a new fund.  I haven't thought the math out yet, but it seems that would be the only reasonable reason to still have funds parked there.

[The Cryptovator]

Definitely, the Bitcoin ETF is positive for the entire Bitcoin community. But still, I am not sure if the ETF broker is 100% backed by bitcoin-traded funds. If they fully cover Bitcoin, then more money should flow into the Bitcoin market, and that's how Bitcoin would fly. This is the only concern from my side. SEC should take care and audit through a firm that trades Bitcoin backed by the broker or exchange. 

[franky1]

I'm a little bit surprised that GBTC continues to have so many owners.  I wonder if they're motivated by thinking the price will continue to rise or if they are just not aware they could get exposure elsewhere with a lower fee...  The only thing that could make any sense to me is if they feel they're better off leaving their money where it is and avoiding paying any gains taxes they may be sitting on, as they feel the loss of money from taxes might hurt their future return when switching to a new fund.  I haven't thought the math out yet, but it seems that would be the only reasonable reason to still have funds parked there.

pre january.. the 620k coins were owned by grayscale aka DCG
they dont want other 'sponsors' (AP's) adding new piles of coin into GBTC custody. as its competition of entering new shares which buyers then buy from the other AP sponsors.. so grayscale put the fee up high as a deterrent

grayscales most common sense reason to be on a selling/redeeming spree is because the 620k were all DCG owned. when DCG lose court cases for other legal issues(ftx, genesis, plus other matters) DCG cant just plead poverty or file bankruptcy to avoid paying out..
so needs to sell its claims and hope to pay down the small court claims using some of the sales, but remove its asset position before the big claims come due

[tranthidung]

I'm a little bit surprised that GBTC continues to have so many owners.  I wonder if they're motivated by thinking the price will continue to rise or if they are just not aware they could get exposure elsewhere with a lower fee...  The only thing that could make any sense to me is if they feel they're better off leaving their money where it is and avoiding paying any gains taxes they may be sitting on, as they feel the loss of money from taxes might hurt their future return when switching to a new fund.  I haven't thought the math out yet, but it seems that would be the only reasonable reason to still have funds parked there.

If they want to move from Grayscale to other Bitcoin Spot ETFs because they want to enjoy lower service fees, they will have to sell their shares in Grayscale and by that, they will have to pay tax.

Tax rate is much higher than what they can save with service fees and I agree with you that it does not worth to sell GBTC and buy other Bitcoin Spot ETF shares.

I know there is a fee rate ware among Bitcoin Spot ETFs but it is more targeting at new investors, not current investors in Grayscale (Previously Grayscale Bitcoin Trust). 1.5% as service fee from Grayscale is undeniable significant higher than fees of other Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

[tranthidung]

Some summary graphics about Bitcoin Spot ETF trading in last month.

• Selling pressure from Grayscale (investors) eventually began to slow down and with less selling pressure from Grayscale, the inflow will outperform outflow.
• From January to February, net inflows of all Bitcoin Spot ETFs increases a lot from 33k BTC to 85k BTC.
• We also can see the new supply crisis. Last 28 days, all Bitcoin Spot ETF bought 272k BTC, Grayscale sold 167k BTC and more important, only 25,2k BTC was mined from latest Bitcoin blocks. This crisis will become bigger after the halving in April.

• https://twitter.com/TheCryptoZombie/status/1761122243235414302
• https://twitter.com/thomas_fahrer/status/1762286478116503683

[franky1]

I'm a little bit surprised that GBTC continues to have so many owners.  I wonder if they're motivated by thinking the price will continue to rise or if they are just not aware they could get exposure elsewhere with a lower fee...  The only thing that could make any sense to me is if they feel they're better off leaving their money where it is and avoiding paying any gains taxes they may be sitting on, as they feel the loss of money from taxes might hurt their future return when switching to a new fund.  I haven't thought the math out yet, but it seems that would be the only reasonable reason to still have funds parked there.

If they want to move from Grayscale to other Bitcoin Spot ETFs because they want to enjoy lower service fees, they will have to sell their shares in Grayscale and by that, they will have to pay tax.

Tax rate is much higher than what they can save with service fees and I agree with you that it does not worth to sell GBTC and buy other Bitcoin Spot ETF shares.

I know there is a fee rate ware among Bitcoin Spot ETFs but it is more targeting at new investors, not current investors in Grayscale (Previously Grayscale Bitcoin Trust). 1.5% as service fee from Grayscale is undeniable significant higher than fees of other Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

the fee GBTC charge is not to end user share holders. its to AP(agents/brokers)
AP's then charge share dealing fee's and portfolio charges to end user share holders

for instance
im not in US but using the bank broker dealer i used to use for stocks and shares for demo
Grayscale
2%
AJ Bell £22 a quarter
bank £9.50 per trade
i as front-end investors only see/pay £9.50 per trade plus £22 a quarter.. where its AJBell that pays 2%/year to grayscale and recoups that 2%/year within its quarterly charge to investors they have like you or me

i cannot request my shares (in this demo) to be dissolved to then cash out at the back end of grayscale to then move into blackrock
i can only sell my shares to the bank(other investors banks match) at the front end then take my cash to buy shares from another broker that is agent of blackrock

its AJBell(in this demo) that would need to buy back the shares from shareholders like me if they want to re-form a basket to then allow AJBell to ask grayscale to dissolve shares and exit the back end of grayscale and then buy into being an agent of black rock

[thecodebear]

I'm a little bit surprised that GBTC continues to have so many owners.  I wonder if they're motivated by thinking the price will continue to rise or if they are just not aware they could get exposure elsewhere with a lower fee...  The only thing that could make any sense to me is if they feel they're better off leaving their money where it is and avoiding paying any gains taxes they may be sitting on, as they feel the loss of money from taxes might hurt their future return when switching to a new fund.  I haven't thought the math out yet, but it seems that would be the only reasonable reason to still have funds parked there.

Yes I am sure taxes is the main thing. If people sell GBTC sure they can go straight into another ETF that has lower fees but they'll own less because they'll have to pay taxes on their gains. I'm sure this is why Grayscale kept their fee really high compared to others, because they realized while they would lose a lot of clients, a lot would stay in order to not take capital gains and so Grayscale would still have a huge amount of the market.

Though it probably isn't a great long term strategy as over the years the Bitcoin they hold will continue to dwindle with people eventually here and there deciding to sell, while Blackrock and Fidelity ETFs are both definitely going to grow larger than GBTC ever was. But Grayscale could always decide in the future to drop their fees to make their ETF more sustainable and try to compete.

[thecodebear]

Grayscale selling on Friday was actually under 1000 BTC for the first time. While of course the other ETFs are buying up several thousand bitcoin a day.

I saw that yesterday Blackrock ETF had its largest volume day yet, beating out the first day of the ETF launch. Will be interesting to see how that volume yesterday translated into actual inflow. Maybe that meant massive ETF buying and yesterday was a big day upward for ETF net inflow. And of course the price went up over $5000 yesterday so I guess its possible that part of that was because of a massive day for ETF buying and the OTC market ran dry and the OTC market had to scoop up a bunch of Bitcoin from exchanges, thus creating a big surge in price. That would appear to be the best explanation of the huge surge yesterday given that there was no news other than Microstrategy buying more which never moves the market anyways. I'll be interested to see the ETF numbers from yesterday when they get posted.

[franky1]

something interesting i have noticed

yesterday blackrock reported assets of ~141k btc.. but notice this on their site
https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust#holdings

notice the amount of the second line 'USD CASH' the 153,999

then compare to todays report of btc holdings (151.5k taking into account price swings of yesterday)

and it shows todays btc is near yesterdays "USD CASH" number

im not saying its exact.. but i seen a pattern that when they only buy say 2500btc.. the previous days "USD cash" was only ~2500(2400-2600) above the BTC holding amount of that day

i feel they are subtly hinting that days prediction of how many coins they want to buy for the next day. (but obviously cant be accurate due to swinging prices of the days trade)

this pattern of seeing a small difference of ~2500 in "usdcash" number on report day manifests into about roughly the amount of extra coins that appear next day(giving into account the price swings that may differ the amount slightly to prediction/plan)

this pattern of seeing a small difference of ~10000 in "usdcash" number previous day manifests into about roughly the amount of extra coins that appear next day(giving into account the price swings that may differ the amount slightly to prediction/plan)

..
i have not kept an exact eye on it every day, but did see a pattern now and again when i was looking several times over last 6 or so weeks.

so interesting to start watching if tomorrow we see blackrock report a 15k increase in BTC holdings tomorrow..(166k-151k=15k)
i dont mind being wrong, but lets see

[thecodebear]

Damn...anyone else noticed so far this week (thru wednesday) ETFs have had inflows of what looks like over half a billion dollars every day!

~9400 BTC, then ~10,100 BTC, then ~11,200 BTC. Going by the approximate bitcoin price each day that was ~$500 million, ~$580 million, ~$680 million. Give or take a few tens of millions. Totally bonkers numbers.




Back when the ETFs launched I figured it would pick up a few billion dollars the first month or so, then settle down to like $50 million or so daily. It's literally doing 10x my expectations now haha. Makes me wonder how large the BTC ETF market will grow over the long term, or at least over several years. Like if by next halving in 2028 there are say 2 million bitcoin (well let's say 2.6 million to account for the 620k btc that were already in Grayscale) locked up in a market that didn't exist until this year, that could really increase expectations of Bitcoin's growth in the coming decade. Since end of 2021, once we knew that cycle's peak, I've been expecting the current cycle peak to be roughly $150k, and next one in 2029 to be $250k-$300k. But with 5 years for ETFs to operate by the 2028/29 bull run, shoot, maybe I need to bump those expectations up like $100k higher. Anyway, just some fun idle speculation.

[tranthidung]

Damn...anyone else noticed so far this week (thru wednesday) ETFs have had inflows of what looks like over half a billion dollars every day!

~9400 BTC, then ~10,100 BTC, then ~11,200 BTC. Going by the approximate bitcoin price each day that was ~$500 million, ~$580 million, ~$680 million. Give or take a few tens of millions. Totally bonkers numbers.

The new capital is big and Bitcoin Spot ETFs are nearly half of Gold ETFs, just after a little bit more than 1 month of trading. Gold ETFs need 20 years, since 2004 to get only 2 times of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

and it shows todays btc is near yesterdays "USD CASH" number

im not saying its exact.. but i seen a pattern that when they only buy say 2500btc.. the previous days "USD cash" was only ~2500(2400-2600) above the BTC holding amount of that day

i feel they are subtly hinting that days prediction of how many coins they want to buy for the next day. (but obviously cant be accurate due to swinging prices of the days trade)

It is a good hint as they must have cash to buy bitcoins. We will test this hint more in coming days of it continues, you discovered a good indicator but I guess it won't be true for all days because they don't need to use all cash they have to buy bitcoins.

It can be right for 1 day, 2 days or more but not for 100% of days.

[franky1]

and it shows todays btc is near yesterdays "USD CASH" number

im not saying its exact.. but i seen a pattern that when they only buy say 2500btc.. the previous days "USD cash" was only ~2500(2400-2600) above the BTC holding amount of that day

i feel they are subtly hinting that days prediction of how many coins they want to buy for the next day. (but obviously cant be accurate due to swinging prices of the days trade)

It is a good hint as they must have cash to buy bitcoins. We will test this hint more in coming days of it continues, you discovered a good indicator but I guess it won't be true for all days because they don't need to use all cash they have to buy bitcoins.

It can be right for 1 day, 2 days or more but not for 100% of days.

well they moved upto 161k not 166k so a 10k day not a 15k day
so debunked theory myself

we are now entering the weekend so tomorrows report of today will be last one for this week until tuesday reports on mondays accumulations

the USDCASH listed today is at 182k so would need to be a 20k day today(reporting tomorrow) to make up for it

[thecodebear]

10k bitcoin selling from Grayscale today, totally aberrant from the past few weeks. Makes me think maybe that was the start of Genesis dumping the Grayscale shares they recently got approval to unload.

Despite that, it was still close to a $100 million net positive day for the ETFs lol. The buying is crazy.

[franky1]

10k bitcoin selling from Grayscale today, totally aberrant from the past few weeks. Makes me think maybe that was the start of Genesis dumping the Grayscale shares they recently got approval to unload.

Despite that, it was still close to a $100 million net positive day for the ETFs lol. The buying is crazy.

yes yesterday was a bumper day for the week for grayscale. because math:
on 6 days (minus yesterday) showed ~6k out from grayscale and ~24k in to blackrock

the 1 day results showed ~10k out from grayscale and ~10k in to blackrock
the 7 day results showed ~16k out from grayscale and ~34k in to blackrock

however if it was due to selling out to cash out for genesis paybacks.. its not even a fraction of what they owe so expect more to come from grayscale
as from the start of january there has been alot more coin purchases from otc/exchange  rather then grayscale exits to then enter other ETF's

compared to ETF prelaunch .. just Grayscale's 620k holding..
total ETF of all ETF holding is as of last report at ~815k

so 195k extra btc is locked into ETF in last near 8 weeks

[tranthidung]

as from the start of january there has been alot more coin purchases from otc/exchange  rather then grayscale exits to then enter other ETF's

compared to ETF prelaunch .. just Grayscale's 620k holding..
total ETF of all ETF holding is as of last report at ~815k

so 195k extra btc is locked into ETF in last near 8 weeks

If this rate of accumulation continues, BlackRock and Fidelity will take over a first position from Grayscale soon. [1]

Now Grayscale has 428,544 BTC and the numbers for BlackRock and Fidelity are 161,226 and 104,128 BTC respectively. These new Bitcoin Spot ETFs only have a little bit more than one month of trading and still have a lot of time to take over a first position from Grayscale.

[1] https://bitcointreasuries.net/

We have another Green week from US. Bitcoin Spot ETFs with totally 30,041 BTC added.

[thecodebear]

as from the start of january there has been alot more coin purchases from otc/exchange  rather then grayscale exits to then enter other ETF's

compared to ETF prelaunch .. just Grayscale's 620k holding..
total ETF of all ETF holding is as of last report at ~815k

so 195k extra btc is locked into ETF in last near 8 weeks

If this rate of accumulation continues, BlackRock and Fidelity will take over a first position from Grayscale soon. [1]

Now Grayscale has 428,544 BTC and the numbers for BlackRock and Fidelity are 161,226 and 104,128 BTC respectively. These new Bitcoin Spot ETFs only have a little bit more than one month of trading and still have a lot of time to take over a first position from Grayscale.

[1] https://bitcointreasuries.net/

We have another Green week from US. Bitcoin Spot ETFs with totally 30,041 BTC added.

Yeah for sure Blackrock and Fidelity will overtake Grayscale. Blackrock maybe within a couple months, Fidelity perhaps this Summer. Will be interesting to see where Grayscale ends up. I could see them leveling off around 300k btc. Though I suppose if they never adjust their fee downward, long term they would keep going down to zero, but one would think they will eventually lower the fee. Maybe once Blackrock and Fidelity pass them they'll decide to lower their fee to keep their fund viable as the number three ETF.


Hey also the 30k for the week in your chart, that's only for four days right? Week isn't complete. Actually I think that's only for three days. Looks like thru Thursday should be around 32,000 btc, and of course still missing Friday's data. Unless Friday was a bit negative and you already have that data so the week dropped down a bit to finish at 30k?? I only use that https://heyapollo.com/bitcoin-etf website which adds the data in the afternoon of the business day after. Do you already have Friday's data?

[thecodebear]

however if it was due to selling out to cash out for genesis paybacks.. its not even a fraction of what they owe so expect more to come from grayscale

Yeah if that was indeed Genesis selling, which I gotta assume it was cuz why else would Grayscale suddenly go from selling like 1k - 3k per day for weeks to suddenly a 10k day, that was of course only part of the genesis sale.

A couple weeks ago when genesis got approval it was said they had $1.3 billion to sell, but that was presumably at a low $50,000s btc price. So probably more like $1.6 billion now. If we estimate 6k-7k of that 10k was from Genesis, that's only about $400 million, or a quarter of what they have to sell. So if Thursday was indeed the first day of Genesis selling then we should expect another 3 or 4 days of major Grayscale selling in the near future.