2024 Difficulty Cycle Analysis (Blocks per Pool)

[joker_josue]

I would like to present a new analysis of the difficulty cycles. Throughout this year I will present data on how each difficulty cycle went. With details of how many blocks each pool mined, and the amounts of fees received.

Below are the data from the first two cycles:









If you have ideas to enrich this analysis, feel free to share. 

[1714252178]

1714252178

[joker_josue]

Below is the result of the cycle that ended on day 2. We can see that it was a cycle that had fewer blocks mined.





I will try in the next posts to have the data presented in BBCode mode. We'll see how it goes.


EDIT: Updated table, with correct data about the last cycle.

[philipma1957]

Below is the result of the cycle that ended on day 2. We can see that it was a cycle that had fewer blocks mined.





I will try in the next posts to have the data presented in BBCode mode. We'll see how it goes.

every diff cycle we have 2015 or 2016 blocks. depending on how you want to count.

I think you meant fewer coin rewards. not fewer blocks.

[joker_josue]

every diff cycle we have 2015 or 2016 blocks. depending on how you want to count.

I think you meant fewer coin rewards. not fewer blocks.

Strange... based on the information collected, only "1729" were counted. And I collected the information in the same way as before. 

I'll try to see what could have happened, to only have counted that number of blocks.

[joker_josue]

I have already corrected the analysis. By mistake I wasn't counting two days!
I apologize for the situation, I'm still fine-tuning some things and these errors may arise, I hope the future will be better.

[philipma1957]

I have already corrected the analysis. By mistake I wasn't counting two days!
I apologize for the situation, I'm still fine-tuning some things and these errors may arise, I hope the future will be better.

no worries you are still doing decent work.  My issue is while I know what to show. And I know what data to use.

 I am not that good at scraping the data and processing it.

[joker_josue]

no worries you are still doing decent work.  My issue is while I know what to show. And I know what data to use.

 I am not that good at scraping the data and processing it.

Regarding that, whenever you need, talk to me. Processing Excel data is up to me. 

_{Without being something highly complex - I don't like macros and scripts. I prefer to keep things more pure to avoid bugs.} 

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   829376  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   112.0335%  (801 / 714.96 expected, 86.04 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 81093222134441 and 84669614313026
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.4052% and +12.1420%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 10:29 PM  (in 7d 12h 44m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 15, 2024 at 11:36 AM  (in 8d 1h 51m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 11h 54m 37s and 13d 1h 1m 7s

12% is about 72eh which is around 360,000 S21's

[joker_josue]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   829376  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   112.0335%  (801 / 714.96 expected, 86.04 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 81093222134441 and 84669614313026
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.4052% and +12.1420%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 10:29 PM  (in 7d 12h 44m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 15, 2024 at 11:36 AM  (in 8d 1h 51m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 11h 54m 37s and 13d 1h 1m 7s

12% is about 72eh which is around 360,000 S21's

We are already 90 blocks advanced in this cycle.
I didn't follow these cycles in detail before, but is this type of jump normal?

[JayJuanGee]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   829376  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   112.0335%  (801 / 714.96 expected, 86.04 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 81093222134441 and 84669614313026
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.4052% and +12.1420%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 10:29 PM  (in 7d 12h 44m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 15, 2024 at 11:36 AM  (in 8d 1h 51m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 11h 54m 37s and 13d 1h 1m 7s

12% is about 72eh which is around 360,000 S21's

We are already 90 blocks advanced in this cycle.
I didn't follow these cycles in detail before, but is this type of jump normal?

Of course since we are more than 5 days into this difficulty period, the average time for finding a block are more accurate to attempt to predict the whole period than they would have had been in the first day or two, but still the range remains so large (between 7.5% to 12%, because it is estimated that we are still going to need close somewhere in the ballpark of 7.5 to 8  more days to reach the end of the difficulty period.... and so there could be a question regarding whether this rate is sustainable.. and also from the below chart, we can see from the recent history (the last year) that there have been ONLY 3 periods that the difficulty adjustments had gone over 7% in the positive.. so the hashing power does seem to be a bit on the higher side in current times even though we still seem to be less than half way through this particular difficulty period... but if we choose over 5% then we have 9 difficulty periods in the past year and if we choose over 6% then we have 7 difficulty periods in the past year. So perhaps we would have to see where it lands, but if we have two in a row that are over 7%, then of course, we are concluding that more and more hashrate is coming on line for one reason or another, and perhaps largely just finding it economical for any particular miner to make such attempts to build up his own hashrate right before the halvening.


https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   829376  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   112.0335%  (801 / 714.96 expected, 86.04 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                            
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Next Difficulty:   between 81093222134441 and 84669614313026
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.4052% and +12.1420%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 10:29 PM  (in 7d 12h 44m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 15, 2024 at 11:36 AM  (in 8d 1h 51m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 11h 54m 37s and 13d 1h 1m 7s

12% is about 72eh which is around 360,000 S21's

We are already 90 blocks advanced in this cycle.
I didn't follow these cycles in detail before, but is this type of jump normal?

Not common to go up that much. 1.2 billion in gear is a lot of gear.

[stompix]

Throughout this year I will present data on how each difficulty cycle went. With details of how many blocks each pool mined, and the amounts of fees received.

Would be also nice to have the market share of pools added in a table to keep tabs on the evolution for their hashing power.
BTC is doing such a thing here:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-pools
but it's annoying since if you have something weird in the last week it also influences the last month so you're left wondering how much things have changed from the previous 3 weeks.
If you're using excel it would be pretty easy, just export the % of blocks from each epoch into a new sheet.

The thing with this is that I really want to see how those heat/cold waves in Texas that supposedly shut down a lot of the hashrate that should be part of just Foundry are rely affecting the distribution, I'm right now at something like 90% sure some of the big guys are splitting theirs with multiple pools. Or they are doing this for some of their farms, or something like that.

[joker_josue]

Throughout this year I will present data on how each difficulty cycle went. With details of how many blocks each pool mined, and the amounts of fees received.

Would be also nice to have the market share of pools added in a table to keep tabs on the evolution for their hashing power.
BTC is doing such a thing here:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-pools

Basically what you're asking for is a graph that tracks the evolution of the pools' hash rates throughout the difficulty cycles, right?
This seems like an easy thing to do, considering that I already record the % of blocks that each pool mines throughout the cycle. 

Did you want this information in graph form, or in a table?

[stompix]

Basically what you're asking for is a graph that tracks the evolution of the pools' hash rates throughout the difficulty cycles, right?

Yeah, I kept spinning that explanation instead of just x goes to there! 

Did you want this information in graph form, or in a table?

Just table, as you can import it every week discrepancies could be seen easily, no need for extra work or fancy graphs!
Since you're doing this from your own time there is no point spending too much on something that might not even reveal a thing, and even if my tinfoil hat theory is right we're not achieving anything, just realizing big guys are playing with us!

[joker_josue]

Below is information on another cycle.






@stompix
I'm still preparing things to present historical information on the performance of the pools in each cycle. 

[joker_josue]

Below is the data from the last two difficulty cycles:











_{@stompix You are not forgotten, I just haven't had the time yet. Coming soon.} 

[joker_josue]

Below are the tables for the last two difficulty cycles: