Fed holds on rate.

[spectre71]

The markets heated up in anticipation of a rate cut but now the "free money" pipe isn't running (yet).

Big boys know this and haven't poured the coals to ETF's yet, they anticipate better buying opportunities ahead.

I am willing to speculate that we will go mostly sideways until the next fed which will be sorta around the (bullshit) halving time.

Tech companies are having troubles and bitcoin closely mimics them.

Buy Buy Buy in my idiot Cramer voice.

[1714199723]

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[takuma sato]

I still don't understand how 99% of people I see around talking about FED rates consider that lowering of rates automatically means something bullish. Do these people not realize that everytime rates have been lowered in the past 24 years, with 100% accuracy, it just announced and underlying problem that ended in recession and thus a big correction of the SP500? (which would mean, a BTC correction almost guaranteed, unless unlikely huge uncorrelated price action)

Basically, if FED cut rates, it's bearish, since if there was nothing wrong, they wouldn't lower them. And if they keep them high, also bearish, because those in debt have bigger problems paying them, which lead to bankruptcies and unemployment as well as problems in society due mortgages not being able to be paid etc. So I don't see how a sort of a crash is avoided, but of course, this is not financial advice and timing on things can always be off. Me personally im keeping some cash on the side.

[EarnOnVictor]

The markets heated up in anticipation of a rate cut but now the "free money" pipe isn't running (yet).

Big boys know this and haven't poured the coals to ETF's yet, they anticipate better buying opportunities ahead.

I am willing to speculate that we will go mostly sideways until the next fed which will be sorta around the (bullshit) halving time.

Tech companies are having troubles and bitcoin closely mimics them.

Buy Buy Buy in my idiot Cramer voice.

Point of correction, there are no big boys anywhere in this situation, it is only an assumption, they do not know better than you do and what is official is always kept so, so that it will not be an issue for the officials since it is illegal if leaked, and could cause market manipulations. But of course, economics predicted the hold in the Federal Funds Rate and that was what happened yesterday even as Jerome Powell delivered his speech. And for the record, what came over the market was never the interest rate effect as it was retained just as it was, but was the speech of Jerome Powell.

The guy was Hawkish in statements which later excited the USD against other assets including Bitcoin. I watched Gold and Bitcoin closely due to the news, they initially reacted the same way even as they both moved lower in reaction to the speech, but Gold later survived it and recovered shortly afterwards. But unfortunately, Bitcoin has been set lower because of that. What I could interpret into this is that Gold is bullish in the short term with no serious barrier on its way but Bitcoin was battling the 1D Fibo support level of $43,606 at that time. Bitcoin hit that level this week after breaking $40,243 but was unable to break it thereby creating negative price action below it which is what is causing the current fall.

[OgNasty]

I still don't understand how 99% of people I see around talking about FED rates consider that lowering of rates automatically means something bullish. Do these people not realize that everytime rates have been lowered in the past 24 years, with 100% accuracy, it just announced and underlying problem that ended in recession and thus a big correction of the SP500? (which would mean, a BTC correction almost guaranteed, unless unlikely huge uncorrelated price action)

Basically, if FED cut rates, it's bearish, since if there was nothing wrong, they wouldn't lower them. And if they keep them high, also bearish, because those in debt have bigger problems paying them, which lead to bankruptcies and unemployment as well as problems in society due mortgages not being able to be paid etc. So I don't see how a sort of a crash is avoided, but of course, this is not financial advice and timing on things can always be off. Me personally im keeping some cash on the side.

The entire economy has been propped up with stimulus for over a decade now. That’s pretty much all investors care about. Everyone knows the entire world is running on funny money. The only thing investors want to know is when we’ll see more stimulus. The sooner the better, so bad news is good news.

When inflation hit in the 70s it hit in 2 waves and the second was worse than the first. We aren’t out of the inflation woods yet so not lowering is the right move even though it will cause pain.

[hugeblack]

I still don't understand how 99% of people I see around talking about FED rates consider that lowering of rates automatically means something bullish. Do these people not realize that everytime rates have been lowered in the past 24 years, with 100% accuracy, it just announced and underlying problem that ended in recession and thus a big correction of the SP500? (which would mean, a BTC correction almost guaranteed, unless unlikely huge uncorrelated price action)

There was a correction and it was bearish. Bitcoin is not fundamentally linked to the stock market and the SP500, so we cannot say that it will move according to the stock market movement. Reducing interest levels affects investors because they are always looking for profit and the price of Bitcoin is guaranteed to rise. Zero interest rates mean that the rise pump for Bitcoin will be magnified.

We can see its impact in the previous price cycle and how most DeFi prices rose.

[spectre71]

Big boys know this and haven't poured the coals to ETF's yet, they anticipate better buying opportunities ahead.

Point of correction, there are no big boys anywhere in this situation, it is only an assumption, they do not know better than you do and what is official is always kept so, so that it will not be an issue for the officials since it is illegal if leaked, and could cause market manipulations.

Um. I guess BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK et al are not big?

They know what's up. The tail wags the dog.

[cakravothy]

fed rate cut in the USA does not have a big effect on the decline in the price of bitcoin. for example, the decline or increase in price is not too big. what is certain is that halving is waiting. after halving the price will certainly crawl up and surely also the big impact on the price will rise high and have a big effect on the price of bitcoin.

[spectre71]

fed rate cut in the USA does not have a big effect on the decline in the price of bitcoin. for example, the decline or increase in price is not too big. what is certain is that halving is waiting. after halving the price will certainly crawl up and surely also the big impact on the price will rise high and have a big effect on the price of bitcoin.

You are right it doesn't. You have it ass backwards. Use  Google as your friend, you will see fed rate HIKES decrease BTC as well as markets, more expensive money. Rate cuts as well as anticipated rate cuts increase the markets, cheap money.

Go get learned.

[adaseb]

We all knew they wouldn’t cut rates in January. And most likely with the data that was released there is a small chance we see a rate cut in March.

However everyday there is something going on. Seems that banks are being hit again like they were in March 2023 and we got a huge rally in the bond market as many are expecting the fed to cut rates to save these banks. Or they will simply just restart QE like they did in 2008 and 2020.

Seems everyday there is a huge sentiment shift.

[takuma sato]

I still don't understand how 99% of people I see around talking about FED rates consider that lowering of rates automatically means something bullish. Do these people not realize that everytime rates have been lowered in the past 24 years, with 100% accuracy, it just announced and underlying problem that ended in recession and thus a big correction of the SP500? (which would mean, a BTC correction almost guaranteed, unless unlikely huge uncorrelated price action)

Basically, if FED cut rates, it's bearish, since if there was nothing wrong, they wouldn't lower them. And if they keep them high, also bearish, because those in debt have bigger problems paying them, which lead to bankruptcies and unemployment as well as problems in society due mortgages not being able to be paid etc. So I don't see how a sort of a crash is avoided, but of course, this is not financial advice and timing on things can always be off. Me personally im keeping some cash on the side.

The entire economy has been propped up with stimulus for over a decade now. That’s pretty much all investors care about. Everyone knows the entire world is running on funny money. The only thing investors want to know is when we’ll see more stimulus. The sooner the better, so bad news is good news.

When inflation hit in the 70s it hit in 2 waves and the second was worse than the first. We aren’t out of the inflation woods yet so not lowering is the right move even though it will cause pain.

The market is betting that rates will be lowered this year. If rates are lowered without expecting a recession then you buy the soft landing narrative. I personally don't buy they will pull this. I think the economy is different since 2000's on a post-internet, post-QE mode economy things function different. Rates should always stay around current ones so people get some for their savings but too much debt will not allow this, rates will be lowered, and recession will hit just like in 00, 08 and 20, now with the fastest rise on rates ever, the effects on the economy will be too much to maintain and they will ease, thus confirming the fact. Second wave inflation is indeed a risk. So the FED is trapped between cutting too soon and generating a second wave, or taking too long and creating a recession.

[EarnOnVictor]

Big boys know this and haven't poured the coals to ETF's yet, they anticipate better buying opportunities ahead.

Point of correction, there are no big boys anywhere in this situation, it is only an assumption, they do not know better than you do and what is official is always kept so, so that it will not be an issue for the officials since it is illegal if leaked, and could cause market manipulations.

Um. I guess BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK et al are not big?

They know what's up. The tail wags the dog.

Of course, these guys are big and it is obvious, no one can state otherwise.

But I disagree with you on the rest. Being a company, I mean big for that matter doesn't directly give you the insider information that could cause market manipulations. They are speculators just like you and if you have the necessary information which is general, they are not better than you. Only that they have human power and resources better than you, but this still does not matter. What matters most is how you use the resources and information at your disposal.

[thecodebear]

The markets heated up in anticipation of a rate cut but now the "free money" pipe isn't running (yet).

Big boys know this and haven't poured the coals to ETF's yet, they anticipate better buying opportunities ahead.

I am willing to speculate that we will go mostly sideways until the next fed which will be sorta around the (bullshit) halving time.

Tech companies are having troubles and bitcoin closely mimics them.

Buy Buy Buy in my idiot Cramer voice.

I didn't even know people were actually expecting a rate cut at that meeting lol. People are way too hyped up about that stuff. Rate cuts will happen in due time, and probably won't start until late Spring or the Summer. The market needs to not be so demanding of immediate cuts. The Fed would only be itching to cut rates if the economy started doing badly, but its still humming along nicely, and the stock market is at all time highs despite the rates being high. I think they'll be nice and slow with the rate cuts and spread them out over the next few years. I think the only major reason to cut rates right now would be to help bring down mortgage rates (which I don't believe are directly tied to the Fed rates but generally do follow the rates up and down) which are indeed very high.

[thecodebear]

I still don't understand how 99% of people I see around talking about FED rates consider that lowering of rates automatically means something bullish. Do these people not realize that everytime rates have been lowered in the past 24 years, with 100% accuracy, it just announced and underlying problem that ended in recession and thus a big correction of the SP500? (which would mean, a BTC correction almost guaranteed, unless unlikely huge uncorrelated price action)

Basically, if FED cut rates, it's bearish, since if there was nothing wrong, they wouldn't lower them. And if they keep them high, also bearish, because those in debt have bigger problems paying them, which lead to bankruptcies and unemployment as well as problems in society due mortgages not being able to be paid etc. So I don't see how a sort of a crash is avoided, but of course, this is not financial advice and timing on things can always be off. Me personally im keeping some cash on the side.

But I think normally when rates are cut it is BECAUSE of economic problems. Now rates are going to be cut simply because the country is used to them being at or near zero and so the rates are currently way out of tune with the idea this century of where rates should be to allow endless borrowing in the economy.

The rates starting to be cut later this year won't be to stop an economic decline, as the economy is doing just fine - the recession tons of people have been saying was imminent for the past two years never hit, and in fact the economy is looking stronger than expected right now. The rates will be cut simply to get it back in line with what people/borrowers/companies expect it to be. Though I think they will probably end up only cutting to like 2% instead of 0% this time because since the economy survived rates over 5% just fine there isn't a reason to go back to zero and having it at around 2% gives the Fed some options for cutting when the next inevitable economic decline does happen. Dropping from 5% to 2% I bet will happen over the course of like 2.5 to three years though.


And the rate cuts are good for Bitcoin price. This market cycle the ETFs, the halving, and rate cuts are going to be major catalysts. Because investors generally feel there is less risk investing when rates are low and when rates are being cut. So Bitcoin is going to feel safer to TradFi investors when they see the Fed cutting rates every few months.

[philipma1957]

the fed went flat around 2006 to 2007 and we crashed and burned. in 2008

that flat 1 year period was pretty much death ☠️

so if we stay flat in march and june we will likely burn in the fall.

time will tell.

[takuma sato]

I still don't understand how 99% of people I see around talking about FED rates consider that lowering of rates automatically means something bullish. Do these people not realize that everytime rates have been lowered in the past 24 years, with 100% accuracy, it just announced and underlying problem that ended in recession and thus a big correction of the SP500? (which would mean, a BTC correction almost guaranteed, unless unlikely huge uncorrelated price action)

Basically, if FED cut rates, it's bearish, since if there was nothing wrong, they wouldn't lower them. And if they keep them high, also bearish, because those in debt have bigger problems paying them, which lead to bankruptcies and unemployment as well as problems in society due mortgages not being able to be paid etc. So I don't see how a sort of a crash is avoided, but of course, this is not financial advice and timing on things can always be off. Me personally im keeping some cash on the side.

But I think normally when rates are cut it is BECAUSE of economic problems. Now rates are going to be cut simply because the country is used to them being at or near zero and so the rates are currently way out of tune with the idea this century of where rates should be to allow endless borrowing in the economy.

The rates starting to be cut later this year won't be to stop an economic decline, as the economy is doing just fine - the recession tons of people have been saying was imminent for the past two years never hit, and in fact the economy is looking stronger than expected right now. The rates will be cut simply to get it back in line with what people/borrowers/companies expect it to be. Though I think they will probably end up only cutting to like 2% instead of 0% this time because since the economy survived rates over 5% just fine there isn't a reason to go back to zero and having it at around 2% gives the Fed some options for cutting when the next inevitable economic decline does happen. Dropping from 5% to 2% I bet will happen over the course of like 2.5 to three years though.


And the rate cuts are good for Bitcoin price. This market cycle the ETFs, the halving, and rate cuts are going to be major catalysts. Because investors generally feel there is less risk investing when rates are low and when rates are being cut. So Bitcoin is going to feel safer to TradFi investors when they see the Fed cutting rates every few months.

This is the official FED narrative before every rate cut that I can remember. Look back in 2000 and 2007. What were they saying?

https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/business/worldbusiness/15iht-fed.4605930.html

Exactly. They always expect a soft landing. How would they expect anything else? If they confirm it, they would only accelerate the panic selling, thus they are always incentivized to not reveal the recession is coming.

Im not some conspiracy lunatic, im just looking the data, and we already have some dodgy stuff going on, like number of working hours declining to 2009 levels while unemployment rises. How does that make sense? I think we are going to see at first small rate cuts, then accelerated cuts as we have seen before which will confirm a recession, but maybe im wrong and Powell pulls a soft landing. Good luck to all.

[BitcoinsGreat]

I still don't understand how 99% of people I see around talking about FED rates consider that lowering of rates automatically means something bullish. Do these people not realize that everytime rates have been lowered in the past 24 years, with 100% accuracy, it just announced and underlying problem that ended in recession and thus a big correction of the SP500? (which would mean, a BTC correction almost guaranteed, unless unlikely huge uncorrelated price action)

Basically, if FED cut rates, it's bearish, since if there was nothing wrong, they wouldn't lower them. And if they keep them high, also bearish, because those in debt have bigger problems paying them, which lead to bankruptcies and unemployment as well as problems in society due mortgages not being able to be paid etc. So I don't see how a sort of a crash is avoided, but of course, this is not financial advice and timing on things can always be off. Me personally im keeping some cash on the side.

Well, the FED has to cut the interest rates very soon in the next few months and if they do not do that their banks will face enormous pressure and the situation may become even worse.
To bail out the situation the US government may issue/print new dollars and this means bitcoin price will rise high as the inflation will increase and people will invest in bitcoin to find a hedge against inflation.

[adaseb]

Yeah it would be great for the fed or the banks or anyone with debt to get lower interest rates but doing so is risky because inflation might come back.

Look at last months employment numbers, more than double the expected numbers and the average hourly wages went up 0.6% which is double.

Imagine what would happen to inflation if they cut rates right now? We would get double digit inflation in a year or so and interest rates would have to go even higher.

[spectre71]

I still don't understand how 99% of people I see around talking about FED rates consider that lowering of rates automatically means something bullish. Do these people not realize that everytime rates have been lowered in the past 24 years, with 100% accuracy, it just announced and underlying problem that ended in recession and thus a big correction of the SP500? (which would mean, a BTC correction almost guaranteed, unless unlikely huge uncorrelated price action)

Basically, if FED cut rates, it's bearish, since if there was nothing wrong, they wouldn't lower them. And if they keep them high, also bearish, because those in debt have bigger problems paying them, which lead to bankruptcies and unemployment as well as problems in society due mortgages not being able to be paid etc. So I don't see how a sort of a crash is avoided, but of course, this is not financial advice and timing on things can always be off. Me personally im keeping some cash on the side.

Well, the FED has to cut the interest rates very soon in the next few months and if they do not do that their banks will face enormous pressure and the situation may become even worse.
To bail out the situation the US government may issue/print new dollars and this means bitcoin price will rise high as the inflation will increase and people will invest in bitcoin to find a hedge against inflation.

I want those banks to fail and not be bailed out, I don't want anyone bailed out.  The middle class is submerged and dieing. Cutting rates would put more nails in our coffins. F wall st and the fed, what about main st?

[macson]

The markets heated up in anticipation of a rate cut but now the "free money" pipe isn't running (yet).

Big boys know this and haven't poured the coals to ETF's yet, they anticipate better buying opportunities ahead.

I am willing to speculate that we will go mostly sideways until the next fed which will be sorta around the (bullshit) halving time.

Tech companies are having troubles and bitcoin closely mimics them.

Buy Buy Buy in my idiot Cramer voice.

So what does that have to do with Bitcoin? I just don't understand why until now people still associate bitcoin with things like the fed or other American authorities, like they don't have anything else that can be used as a reference for speculating on the price of bitcoin. I understand that the Fed's decision could affect the price of Bitcoin, but is that the reason that Bitcoin depends on the Fed in the future? I feel we need to focus on bigger things, not just speculate on things that are actually not that important.

[el kaka22]

FED holds rate, so institutions will not move funds into bitcoin? But, I would say that FED rate has nothing to do with the way that we will go up, it's mostly about the fact that we are about to have halving and after that bitcoin has always gone up.

I am writing right here, and you can come back to it and tell me about it later on, I guarantee you, after 2024 April, basically after halving, there will be "some" stuff that will happen, it could be Elon musk, it could be fed, it could be anything and people will say that the price will go up, and I am telling right beforehand and before any of that happens; the price will go up due to halving and nothing more. All those people will time it perfectly and claim that they made it themselves and it's up thanks to them but that is not going to be the reason.