When will Bitcoin catch up with Gold in capitalization?

[ArikeTobi]

I want to know your opinion:

• Do you think Bitcoin has any chance of catching up and then surpassing Gold in capitalization?
• If so, when in the future might that event take place?
• If this happens, will it be a good thing for Bitcoin?

The people will soon realized the difference between a centralized asset and a decentralized one, this is one of the advantage one that can get with Bitcoin adoption, you don't need permission or access from any central authority to be able to invest and hold bitcoin as you can have with gold, the reason that gold is being centralized alone will convince people not to make an investment in gold as the stand to understand the difference privacy, rate, interest and security measures required for gold and which is nothing to bother with bitcoin investment.

[Hamza2424]

No doubt that Bitcoin can reach the capital amount of gold on this timeline, and even Bitcoin has a chance to win over the gold in this capitalization race. I'm quite curious when it can reach this level most people may predict in this cycle which may sound unrealistic for the rest let's leave it to the time.

For Bitcoin now, I think it's losing its worth as a payment mode due to time to time network cost issues, on the same time people are also now considering Bitcoin as a Liquid gold which gives an indication that people just want Bitcoin to be an asset class not a pehyment mode.

[thecodebear]

anyone can right now create an altcoin with a 1trillion token pre-mine..
sell 0.001 token for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

anyone can right now create company with a 1trillion shares. (metaphorically, though securities commission will have rules)
sell 0.001 shares for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

If anyone could do that there would be tons of quadrillion dollar companies and cryptocurrencies. Instead of anyone being able to do these things, nobody has ever done these things.

There's only 1 trillion dollar cryptocurrency, only 7 trillion dollar companies, the highest being 3 trillion, a mere 0.003 of a quadrillion that according to you anyone could do.

Market caps represent the total value of an asset's supply. It's important to know for what it is. It's why we know that Bitcoin is more valuable than a random altcoin. People who don't understand what a market cap is would think that BCH is worth more than SOL because the price is higher, or they are the type of people who think its better to buy some random altcoin than Bitcoin because the altcoin is priced at a fraction of a cent while Bitcoin "costs too much" in the tens of thousands of dollars, and they don't realize nobody cares about the tiny market cap altcoin while Bitcoin is a major trillion dollar asset.

[thecodebear]

I'm not pessimistic but it might not happen within anybody's lifetime here. Gold has already established its value for thousands of years. Even after gold has vacated its throne as a currency, central banks are still keeping hoards of gold in their vaults. Gold will always have value. Even outside the realm of money, economics, and finance, gold will remain to be valuable as technologies are using it. Outside technologies, gold is also sought after by jewelers.

But if it happens a hundred years or two from now, it must of course be good for Bitcoin. Bitcoin must already be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars by then.

uhh Bitcoin will be worth hundreds of thousands this decade and next decade, and almost certainly leave that range for the millions in the 2040s, not in a century or two.

In a hundred or two hundred years from now, assuming something doesn't happen to make bitcoin stop its growth and reverse course, Bitcoin will definitely be worth tens of millions of dollars. There is no doubt about that.


Some math for you:

100 years of let's say 3% inflation, with no actual real value growth for Bitcoin's value, from $50k would take Bitcoin to $960k. That's just inflation, 2024 $50k = $960k in 2124 with 3% annual inflation. With just 11x real price growth (which is likely in the next 15 years, not 100 years) Bitcoin would be worth $10.5 million. Definitely Bitcoin will be worth in the tens of millions of dollars in 2124, and the hundreds of millions of dollars in 2224. The thing is that the Dollar will be nearly worthless compared to today.

[SamReomo]

I want to know your opinion:

• Do you think Bitcoin has any chance of catching up and then surpassing Gold in capitalization?
• If so, when in the future might that event take place?
• If this happens, will it be a good thing for Bitcoin?

Yes, I think that Bitcoin can surpass the gold market capitalization in future not only surpassing it but it has the potential to reach 2x the capitalization that gold has. It's not going to happen within 4 years but I'm sure in a decade or two from now we may see Bitcoin surpassing market capitalization of gold or even reaching it's 2x capitalization by then.

If that happens then surely it will be a very good thing for Bitcoin. Bitcoin will be accepted all over the world if that happens and no country would pose ban or any restrictions on Bitcoin and its trading. By then if cash exists then people will directly purchase Bitcoin with cash because it will be widely available in each city and town. All online and offline services will accept Bitcoin as a payment method and people will give it more priority over other payment methods.

[Abiky]

I want to know your opinion:

• Do you think Bitcoin has any chance of catching up and then surpassing Gold in capitalization?
• If so, when in the future might that event take place?
• If this happens, will it be a good thing for Bitcoin?

With institutional investors in the game, it should only be a matter of time before BTC surpasses Gold in market cap. It's not a question of "IF", but rather "WHEN". I believe it will take a couple of years before this happens. You can increase your odds of striking it rich if you buy and hold BTC today.

The "yellow metal" (Gold) has often been trusted for centuries, so it's hard to imagine it will lose traction in the future. It will co-exist with Bitcoin for generations. Even Gold is being "tokenized" on the Blockchain with the introduction of RWAs such as Paxos Gold and Tether Gold. Exciting times ahead for both assets (BTC and AU). Just my thoughts

[m2017]

Bitcoin's meteoric rise has sparked comparisons to gold, particularly as a hedge against inflation^[1].

Compared to bitcoin, gold is inferior as a hedge against inflation. Gold allows you to “freeze” money at the current stage, while bitcoin, due to its growth in value at each new cycle, allows you to increasingly outpace inflation, which, by the way, is also progressing.

Some even envision it supplanting the precious metal as the ultimate store of value^[2].

Or at least firmly entrenched in the position of an alternative store of value.

However, the path to surpassing gold's market cap of $13.47 trillion remains shrouded in uncertainty^[3-4].

There is undoubtedly uncertainty, but one cannot help but notice that bitcoin is gradually moving in that direction (to surpassing).

An exorbitant price could hinder Bitcoin's utility as a payment method, relegating it to government reserves.

It will be almost impossible to combine in bitcoin both a payment method and a savings method at the same time. These are completely different functions.

I want to know your opinion:

• Do you think Bitcoin has any chance of catching up and then surpassing Gold in capitalization?
• If so, when in the future might that event take place?
• If this happens, will it be a good thing for Bitcoin?

- Yes.
- There is too little data that can change to give an accurate forecast.
- As soon as we wait for this, then we will know.

[Faisal2202]

However, the path to surpassing gold's market cap of $13.47 trillion remains shrouded in uncertainty

You have made a good analysis here, I liked this information, this has made me realize how much gold has been made or discovered from 2010 to now, which means the gold supply is not limited by what most people used to say, I don't agree on this fact that's because the price volatility of BTC and Gold has huge difference, for example, this fact.

-cut-
Form that chart, gold was around $1900 in 2011 forth quarter. Gold price as of today is $1961.

While if we at see BTC price, it is insane. It gives people more profit than gold, it's the best asset to store the value, even if it's highly volatile, but in the long run, it gives you more profit than holding your money in Gold. Well, we were talking about the market cap of Gold which is around $13+ trillion while of BTC as of today is around $1.09 Trillion. That solves one thing why Gold has a huge market cap while BTC doesn't (due to supply). And that's not limited to Gold.

[ChiBitCTy]

I was having a conversation with a good buddy about this just a day or two ago.  I've also been preaching about this topic for about a decade at this point...bitcoin and gold are far from the same thing, lumping the two together really just doesn't make sense.  Gold is used for a lot of "real world" things such as for electronics, automobiles and jewelry.  It's a precious metal, where bitcoin is an electronic payment system.  Comparing the two or expecting bitcoin to catch up with golds "capitalization" I think just shows how too many people still see bitcoin as a gold replacement, which it's just not.

[The Cryptovator]

Why do you want to compare Bitcoin capitalization with gold capitalization exactly? Before you ask this question, you should keep in mind that bitcoin and gold aren't the same thing. Gold has been mined continuously, and there are no limits. But Bitcoin has a limit; some days it will be ended. Gold is from nature, and it won't end. So gold capitalization will increase day by day. Though Bitcoin capitalization has also been increasing, it depends on price movements only. So we can't forecast when Bitcoin could surpass gold capitalization. 

[franky1]

anyone can right now create an altcoin with a 1trillion token pre-mine..
sell 0.001 token for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

anyone can right now create company with a 1trillion shares. (metaphorically, though securities commission will have rules)
sell 0.001 shares for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

If anyone could do that there would be tons of quadrillion dollar companies and cryptocurrencies. Instead of anyone being able to do these things, nobody has ever done these things.

There's only 1 trillion dollar cryptocurrency, only 7 trillion dollar companies, the highest being 3 trillion, a mere 0.003 of a quadrillion that according to you anyone could do.

Market caps represent the total value of an asset's supply. It's important to know for what it is. It's why we know that Bitcoin is more valuable than a random altcoin. People who don't understand what a market cap is would think that BCH is worth more than SOL because the price is higher, or they are the type of people who think its better to buy some random altcoin than Bitcoin because the altcoin is priced at a fraction of a cent while Bitcoin "costs too much" in the tens of thousands of dollars, and they don't realize nobody cares about the tiny market cap altcoin while Bitcoin is a major trillion dollar asset.

you think there are no altcoins with more then a trillion coins/tokens in circulation....

https://in.tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/prices-highest-supply
arbdogeAI 174.4 quadrillion tokens

[nakamura12]

Bitcoin could potentially outshine gold in market value because of its limited supply and increasing popularity. When this might happen is anyone's guess, depending on things like regulations, technology improvements and overall economic vibes. Whether it's good for Bitcoin is a mixed bag because some see it as a cool validation while others worry about more rules and market ups and downs. It's a wild ride with no clear answers

We don't know that it might be sooner for bitcoin to catch up with gold in capitalization since bitcoin is very much accessible than gold and that's my opinion about it but anyway, there's no point in comparing the two assets because the two is far different from each other. Gold can be used to display in public where people can see you have gold and I think bitcoin can also be displayed in public like using a material to make it shape the same as BTC logo or even your wallet address ( a wallet address that is not your main if you are concerned about your privacy although gold is much better in that aspect). Also, bitcoin already outshine the gold in market value if we talked about value but the OP is about conversion of btc to capital and not it's market value.

[hatshepsut93]

It's one thing for Bitcoin to reach the marketcap of gold, or really any other milestone, and a different thing to actually hold it. In the past there was a huge difference between the ATH and an average price of a period before or after that. We could witness Bitcoin temporarily reaching marketcap of gold in the next 10 years, but seeing it holding that level is something that's not likely to happen soon.

It's easy to say that Bitcoin can easily double, tripple and quadruple in price because it did so in the past, but this growth rate will sooner or later end, nothing can go only up and up at a fast rate infinitely.

[Darker45]

This might happen but we're far from it. I'm not taking away this possibility, though. As an asset, Bitcoin somehow mimics gold. Bitcoin has been touted as the digital gold by many people, including those who have long been playing in the world of finance. Just like gold, Bitcoin is an asset that has high stock to flow ratio. Gold can be considered scarce, but Bitcoin is way scarcer. As a matter of fact, it will stop producing new supply at some point.

Therefore, considering that Bitcoin is better than gold in more ways than one, it would be logical to expect that its market cap will one day catch up. But that might take decades.

[kryptqnick]

I love that the op's post is very detailed, provides a lot of useful info and is based on several sources. We're very far from the required price and capitalization to beat gold, so it's important to be realistic about it. I do believe that $678k per Bitcoin is a possibility, but not something that will happen in the near future. The last bull market brought a 3x multiplier, so, if the multiplier doesn't get smaller, we'd need 4-5 bull markets for the price to get to that point. Considering the long bear markets and an average 4-year cycle, that means we need 15–20 years to get there. But that's not all because, in the meantime, gold can also increase its value, so Bitcoin would get the where gold used to be as of 2024. Fully catching up is not something I consider impossible, but it can take several decades, I believe.

[NotATether]

But surpassing gold might not be the ultimate victory. An exorbitant price could hinder Bitcoin's utility as a payment method, relegating it to government reserves. Perhaps a more achievable and beneficial goal lies in surpassing larger corporations like Microsoft ($3.026 trillion), placing Bitcoin's value at a more accessible $154,000 per unit.

Why?

Bitcoin is not a corporation, despite the CEO of Bitcoin memes.

Nobody actually does anything to increase Bitcoin's valuation, except for buying and selling it.

We already have a way to deal with a highly deflated price of Bitcoin and that is the Lightning Network (and not everyone likes it, but it does the job well).

Teaching people how to use it properly will be a problem though. Especially the whole thing about adding channels before you can send or receive anything from them.

[Benedictare]

   Bitcoin is usually compared to Gold because  of its essential ways and qualities which makes it to be a strong store value especially when it is very small in supply, Bitcoin is good in every aspect because of its digital network,as a store value,medium of exchange,easy to secure and transport and can be used to pay for goods and services. Nevermind we believe that Bitcoin will catch up with Gold, for now Gold has a bigger market cap than Bitcoin,the good chance for advancement to put aside the rare metal area in portfolios can chase the Bitcoin amount to increase.

[Abiky]

Why?

Bitcoin is not a corporation, despite the CEO of Bitcoin memes.

Nobody actually does anything to increase Bitcoin's valuation, except for buying and selling it.

We already have a way to deal with a highly deflated price of Bitcoin and that is the Lightning Network (and not everyone likes it, but it does the job well).

Teaching people how to use it properly will be a problem though. Especially the whole thing about adding channels before you can send or receive anything from them.

The Lightning Network "works", but you still need to pay a high on-chain fee to open/close a channel (although this is a one-time payment). It seems that you can't avoid high fees on BTC. Either wait until fees go down, or switch to an altcoin with lower network congestion. Because of Bitcoin's current state, we cannot use it as "digital cash". It's only suitable as a store of value (or "digital Gold"). Investors are now considering BTC as the most likely successor of Gold in the future.

I would've wished the majority considered BTC as the successor of existing Fiat currencies subject to corruption and manipulation. With spot Bitcoin ETFs approved by the SEC, it should only be a matter of time before the BTC surpasses Gold in market cap. The question is: Are you buying and "hodling" the coin?

[thecodebear]

Why?

Bitcoin is not a corporation, despite the CEO of Bitcoin memes.

Nobody actually does anything to increase Bitcoin's valuation, except for buying and selling it.

We already have a way to deal with a highly deflated price of Bitcoin and that is the Lightning Network (and not everyone likes it, but it does the job well).

Teaching people how to use it properly will be a problem though. Especially the whole thing about adding channels before you can send or receive anything from them.

The Lightning Network "works", but you still need to pay a high on-chain fee to open/close a channel (although this is a one-time payment). It seems that you can't avoid high fees on BTC. Either wait until fees go down, or switch to an altcoin with lower network congestion. Because of Bitcoin's current state, we cannot use it as "digital cash". It's only suitable as a store of value (or "digital Gold"). Investors are now considering BTC as the most likely successor of Gold in the future.

I would've wished the majority considered BTC as the successor of existing Fiat currencies subject to corruption and manipulation. With spot Bitcoin ETFs approved by the SEC, it should only be a matter of time before the BTC surpasses Gold in market cap. The question is: Are you buying and "hodling" the coin?

Please don't suggest people use silly altcoins for payments instead of Bitcoin. With LN you pay a fee once, and not even high as you suggest, like $3 maybe, and then you can transact all you want for like less than a cent per transaction. Altcoins are not even money they are just centralized tokens, so you really can't compare them to using Bitcoin. The answer to bitcoin fees being a few dollars is never "use an altcoin", but rather "use L2". Just as if someone doesn't take cash the answer isn't "use shells", but rather "use a credit card".

[Abiky]

Please don't suggest people use silly altcoins for payments instead of Bitcoin. With LN you pay a fee once, and not even high as you suggest, like $3 maybe, and then you can transact all you want for like less than a cent per transaction. Altcoins are not even money they are just centralized tokens, so you really can't compare them to using Bitcoin. The answer to bitcoin fees being a few dollars is never "use an altcoin", but rather "use L2". Just as if someone doesn't take cash the answer isn't "use shells", but rather "use a credit card".

The fee you're going to pay will depend on how congested the Bitcoin blockchain is. It's not fixed at $3. It could be a lot higher if there's a resurgence in network activity. Altcoins (although many are centralized) are a much cheaper option than the LN (when taking into consideration paying a one-time fee on the BTC blockchain). Besides, the L2 network isn't ready for mainstream use. It's full of bugs. If the LN experiences an outage or collapses, you can say "bye-bye" to your sats for good.

Things aside, I think it's possible Bitcoin will reach Gold's market cap. Especially when a lot of prominent institutional investment firms are showing huge interest in it. I'd say we are still early to the game. Once BTC "explodes", market prices will be a lot higher than what they are right now. Perhaps, it will replace Gold in the future?