A new ATH before halving. Is it possible?

[Fundamentals Of]

Ever since its creation, Bitcoin's ATH is reached after the halving, more than a year after the halving to be more precise. There have been three halvings so far. This kind of pattern is true to all of them.

But I'm becoming curious this time around. The price has already reached $52,000 and we are still 2 months away from the halving. Bitcoin's ATH was reached on November 10, 2021. 2 months prior to that, the price was only around $46,000. From $52,000, it only took a month for Bitcoin to reach an ATH of $69,000.

Now, my question is: is it a possibility that this upcoming halving is unique in that a new ATH is reached before it? We still have a lot of time left. With the demand beating the supply, $69,000 is not far away from the current price.

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[OgNasty]

I would have said it isn’t possible a few months ago, but this latest rise puts an all time high at any moment on the table. Even when Bitcoin was hitting it’s all time high last time there was virtually no stoppage between $69K and $50K. I can’t say when the move for the all time high will happen, but I know that when it does it will be quick.

[mk4]

The all-time high of $69k is an increase of just around 27% from here; so of course it's very possible. All it takes is a good number of green days then voilà — all-time highs.

And of course, things can be different this time. We didn't have hundreds of millions of dollars pumping into bitcoin through the ETFs in the previous halvings lol.

[famososMuertos]

I don't think it is exactly the influence of third parties, they are a part not the whole, the protagonists are several, let's not forget who is the main promoter.

Now, given the background and the very fact that the short sellers will do their thing, this new unprecedented fact is not coming for this cycle before Halving, the truth is that we can have an ATH by the end of June.

^{There is no editing in this post, it is a prediction so let's clarify: yeah! june, 2024}

[adaseb]

Yes it’s possible as long as the etf inflows are at $500M per day. So far for the last 5 days or so we got $500M each day. Today as far as I can tell it should also be close to $500M.

So the supply is getting drier and drier and we should go higher and higher as long as the flows continue. Since we broke $50K, we already are getting more and more FOMO because everyone think we will break ATH going closer to the halving dates.

[JariKriting]

In my opinion, before the halving, the Bitcoin price will not reach its new ATH price. unless the buying demand is very large and is pumped by investors including exchangers, it can reach the new ATH price. without this it will be difficult to reach the latest ATH price

[Bobrox]

Current Bitcoin all time high price (ATH) last two years ago around $69,000 and bitcoin price today close above $52K, I don't think it difficult left two months before halving bitcoin make new ATH price. Raise to last All time high (ATH) just need round 15% left or bitcoin need to raise more than $17K if want get opportunity for making new all time high price for second time.
In my opinion its possibilities for bitcoin will raise new ATH price before halving, last day bitcoin success break out until raise to $52,500 and current bitcoin keep stable with drastically correction, wait and see in few days later get potential bitcoin will make another history with new all time high (ATH) price exactly before halving and potential raise up to $75K.

[pooya87]

The cycles have been broken so I wouldn't speculate only based on them.
There is also the potential to start a big bull market, palpable by looking at the market. So the possibility to set a new ATH is strong.

But at the same time we still have the global economy and the recession that is countering the rally. In $40k level, these two opposing forces reached a balance but the halving effect changed it in favor of bitcoin, and also the fact that interest rates hasn't risen for some time is playing an important role as it helped some money come back to Bitcoin market.

So as a conclusion, can this trend continue? I think the chances are high.

[retreat]

In my opinion, before the halving, the Bitcoin price will not reach its new ATH price. unless the buying demand is very large and is pumped by investors including exchangers, it can reach the new ATH price. without this it will be difficult to reach the latest ATH price

Like you, I also don't think that we will be able to reach ATH before the halving, because it seems there will be a correction before the halving and that will put Bitcoin in a bad position. My feeling is that maybe we will reach ATH after the halving. That's just my feeling, because anything can happen in the market.

[Lida93]

Now, my question is: is it a possibility that this upcoming halving is unique in that a new ATH is reached before it? We still have a lot of time left. With the demand beating the supply, $69,000 is not far away from the current price.

currently the price is at $51,600+  that's just a difference of $17,000+ to a $69k price and more, and looking at the time that we're yet to cover before the halving it's rational to say it's possible to say that a bitcoin ATH could take place before the halving.

Perhaps should this happens then to me I feel it's going to stem a precedent in history  of bitcoin that the future of bitcoin ATH after this very one in focus will be skeptical for all investors as the debate will be that an ATH might set in before a halving or a halving before an ATH but either ways this will all depend on the demand and supply of the market.

[Oshosondy]

Now, my question is: is it a possibility that this upcoming halving is unique in that a new ATH is reached before it? We still have a lot of time left. With the demand beating the supply, $69,000 is not far away from the current price.

What we predicted before was that the price of Bitcoin can reach $48000 to $52000 if bitcoin ETF is approved. The price is there now but no one knows if all-time-high can be gotten to before halving. If my analysis is correct, I am not expecting all-time-high before halving. Although I am not saying it is not possible.

The all-time high of $69k is an increase of just around 27% from here; so of course it's very possible.

It is possible but no that easy. Let us see what will happen in March. I am guessing that March may not be that favorable but I am not sure because there is nothing making the market to dump than GBTC that was sold immediately after bitcoin ETF was approved by the United States.

In my opinion, before the halving, the Bitcoin price will not reach its new ATH price. unless the buying demand is very large and is pumped by investors including exchangers, it can reach the new ATH price. without this it will be difficult to reach the latest ATH price

What are you saying? I can also say the only reason water can wet something is when water is used to wet that thing.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

With the demand beating the supply, $69,000 is not far away from the current price.

Regarding the above statement, how do you know there's more demand than supply (aside from the fact that bitcoin's price is currently rising)?  And who's to say that demand won't suddenly drop?  There's no guarantee that the halving is going to have an effect on the price of bitcoin at all, regardless of what happened in the past.  Personally I think the halvings have already been priced in--but that doesn't mean there won't be speculators who'll be driving up demand, expecting a jump in price because of the upcoming halving.

Everything I wrote above aside, I do indeed think we could see a new ATH soon.  Don't know if it'll be before or after the halving, but for whatever reason bitcoin is red hot right now.  Effin' white hot.  The only problem I see is that if the price goes up too high, too fast then we're probably going to see a massive crash.  It's happened before.

[Wind_FURY]

A new ATH before halving. Is it possible?

Although I'm not as bullish as everyone because of the current macro-economic condition around the globe, which I believe we'll see another crash before Bitcoin surges to six digits, BUT to answer OP's question - YES, it's possible. Why? One of the possible, but currently, biggest reasons right now might be because those Gold ETF investors are selling their investments in exchange for the Bitcoin spot ETF.

We're seeing horses being replaced by cars, a phenomenon when the new replaces the old.

[Mahanton]

With the demand beating the supply, $69,000 is not far away from the current price.

Regarding the above statement, how do you know there's more demand than supply (aside from the fact that bitcoin's price is currently rising)?  And who's to say that demand won't suddenly drop?  There's no guarantee that the halving is going to have an effect on the price of bitcoin at all, regardless of what happened in the past.  Personally I think the halvings have already been priced in--but that doesn't mean there won't be speculators who'll be driving up demand, expecting a jump in price because of the upcoming halving.

Everything I wrote above aside, I do indeed think we could see a new ATH soon.  Don't know if it'll be before or after the halving, but for whatever reason bitcoin is red hot right now.  Effin' white hot.  The only problem I see is that if the price goes up too high, too fast then we're probably going to see a massive crash.  It's happened before.

There are really people who do say such things without even trying out to look again or trying to realize that this market isnt really just that talking about moving upwards.As we do all know that
this market isnt something that could really be predicted on which it would really be that always a matter of demand and recognition in speaking about value then it would really be always reflected on that.
New ATH before halving? Possible but its unlikely, we might be able to se those huge movements but doesnt mean that it would be a non-stop thing. Always anticipate that after a rise then there would always be a drop.
Its normal for people to look for new ATH, who doesnt like that?

It is really just that people are really that rushing up things on seeing new ATH, its exciting but we shouldnt really make ourselves that too optimistic because so that you wont really be able to make yourself
that being hopeful into those numbers.

[STT]

Its possible but it would be a negative for any larger objective.   Are we really wanting to rush towards 70k and thats it, an over extended unstable move causes instability then fear meaning we go back to 30k or even lower.    Rush too much and it will just become a leveraged trade, thats why it sells off at the top so aggressively.    Add in the inexperienced and new buyers at those high prices, thats alot of bruised people and negative headlines etc.
  58k occurring right now would be the positive price move I would mostly appreciate for this year, the reason Im fine with a modest target is if we were solid at such a level not a sharp spike hurting the ground level buyer of BTC, then the much bigger gains are possible.
  My thoughts on this current move are it resembles 2019 and at the time that didnt appear too much but it didnt hold its gains especially under pressure.   My rough take is dont worry the highest price, consider the lowest price from here on far more important.  Im going to be really enthusiastic if we stay 40k or higher for 2024, thats a big launching point higher; less then that I worry in haste we slip.

[stompix]

Now, my question is: is it a possibility that this upcoming halving is unique in that a new ATH is reached before it?

Everything is possible!
Tossing a coin heads 6 times in a row and then one time not and again 6 times heads is a possibility, just like the price going up three times after the halving happened and just like till we had the previous cycle (which broke the no ATH before the halving rule you think of)  eveything is a possibility.
Drawing lines on past performance and thinking it will repeat itself time and time again till the end of the world is just crystal ball gambling!

Regarding the above statement, how do you know there's more demand than supply (aside from the fact that bitcoin's price is currently rising)?  And who's to say that demand won't suddenly drop?  There's no guarantee that the halving is going to have an effect on the price of bitcoin at all, regardless of what happened in the past.  

Of course there is no guarantee!
And the whole thing about supply and demand and how mining 450 coins instead of 900 would reduce the supply is also ridiculous!

Everyone was bullish back in November cause the halving is coming and the price will go up based on the reduction of mined coins and they were making the math like : 900 coins a day , price was 30 000 so 27 million which will change to just 13.5 millions day.
Well now at these prices and assuming is not going over to 60k maybe  we will have 450 x 52 000, so 23.4 million, the incoming supply after the halving is already nearly as the supply in November!!!! The whole influx of coins halving effect that we were supposed to have has already been reduced by the jump in price!

Why? One of the possible, but currently, biggest reasons right now might be because those Gold ETF investors are selling their investments in exchange for the Bitcoin spot ETF. We're seeing horses being replaced by cars, a phenomenon when the new replaces the old.

If you're thinking of gold as the horses then you might change that to the early sledges before the wheel, gold has already been replaced a long time ago, SPDR is just peanuts compared to others despite having almost as much gold as Switzerland, it's just incurable goldbugs that keep those things alive.

[Moreno233]

Ever since its creation, Bitcoin's ATH is reached after the halving, more than a year after the halving to be more precise. There have been three halvings so far. This kind of pattern is true to all of them.

But I'm becoming curious this time around. The price has already reached $52,000 and we are still 2 months away from the halving. Bitcoin's ATH was reached on November 10, 2021. 2 months prior to that, the price was only around $46,000. From $52,000, it only took a month for Bitcoin to reach an ATH of $69,000.

Now, my question is: is it a possibility that this upcoming halving is unique in that a new ATH is reached before it? We still have a lot of time left. With the demand beating the supply, $69,000 is not far away from the current price.

All time high before halving is a possibility, at least it has become so clear now. It should not be a thing of surprise though except for sceptics. There are plenty things that make this halving year different from the others, the major one is the ETF approval that brought so much interest in Bitcoin. Many people are now interested in Bitcoin unlike before than there were a lot of resistance from both governments and cooperated institutions not forgetting individuals. I have not also heard about Bitcoin sceptics for a long time and that is to show that some of them might have changed their mind and started holding Bitcoin. So I am convinced that a new all time high is likely before halving at the rate BTC is growing.

[348Judah]

Now, my question is: is it a possibility that this upcoming halving is unique in that a new ATH is reached before it? We still have a lot of time left. With the demand beating the supply, $69,000 is not far away from the current price.

We may choose to say yes and eventually things turn the other way, we may also think that its not possible and see begin to see the unfolding aspect of the market performance to a new all time high or very close to before the halving, am just happy and elated that the entire bitcoin community were being delighted to see the recent market performance in a very shorter time than expected, if it happens that we have the new all time high before the halving, then its a significant impression that more are to come after the halving.

[ivankoh]

Ever since its creation, Bitcoin's ATH is reached after the halving, more than a year after the halving to be more precise. There have been three halvings so far. This kind of pattern is true to all of them.

But I'm becoming curious this time around. The price has already reached $52,000 and we are still 2 months away from the halving. Bitcoin's ATH was reached on November 10, 2021. 2 months prior to that, the price was only around $46,000. From $52,000, it only took a month for Bitcoin to reach an ATH of $69,000.

Now, my question is: is it a possibility that this upcoming halving is unique in that a new ATH is reached before it? We still have a lot of time left. With the demand beating the supply, $69,000 is not far away from the current price.

Basically anything is possible? Yes, every market movement has the potential to disrupt historical fundamentals in the same way that bitcoin ATH - if things reverse before the halving instead of after it is still possible. , except that local movements and invisible barriers can counteract it. Bitcoin has surpassed the target of 49k$ and then 52k$, which proves that the possibility of bitcoin running a new ath is very feasible. Of course, stop feeling emotional, you should be ready for scenarios where there is a possibility of a breakthrough.

[BABY SHOES]

So far I don't think it will be unique for the halving now where the price will reach ATH before its time but if for example to ATH before that it is still very possible because since the last few months the price of bitcoin has continued to rise.

Or maybe the cycle now the new ATH will be faster? I think it will be very possible because we don't have to wait long but to get to the price of $100K then it might take more time or a new narrative where there are rumors of bitcoin being excited, but I think we will never know about this prediction.