2024 Elliott Wave

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[sparkl3t]

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2024/04/20240408-btcusd.png

Not a triangle, maybe a complex flat

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Not a triangle, maybe a complex flat

Appears to be Falling Triangle at the moment...

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[d5000]

Your analysis of late March, where you predicted a deeper fall below 60k, was actually quite good (even it the dip got lower than your predicted 57-58k, but I believe this was mainly due to long liquidations and a mini-panic)

I am also quite a fan of Elliott waves because they can be explained well with mass psychology and with the "overbought"/"oversold" conditions.

For the current slightly bearish movement we're seeing since the March ATH of >73k, I think the most likely options are (in decreasing probability, from my subjective point of view):

1) a bearish wave 4 in a ~2-3-year bullish cycle with peak in late 2024 or early 2025. Wave 1 would have been, in this case, the movement in late 2022 to mid-2023 up to 32k. Wave 2 would have been the consolidation down to 25-26k, and Wave 3 then the whole way up to 73K. This means that after this wave 4 has bottomed, an "euphoria phase" with >100k could follow.
2) a correction inside a bullish wave 3, peak would be in early to mid 2025. This would be even more bullish, because then we could expect some more ATHs (perhaps up to 80-90k or even 100k) before wave 4 sets in and brings us again down to 55-70k or so. The likelihood of this scenario, in my opinion, has however lowered in favour of scenario 1 due to the relatively weak last weeks.
3) a bearish wave 2 in a 3-4-year bullish cycle, peak in late 2025 or even 2026. This would be the most bullish option, but I think it's relatively unlikely. Basically that would mean that everything from 15.5k up to 73k was a Wave 1. And in my opinion, taking into account the attention levels and psychologic sentiment (Google Trends, Greed & Fear etc.) we have already advanced more than this stage. The only argument in favour of that scenario is tha none of the corrections we've seen in this bull market before the current wave was really important enough to be considered a "wave". In the short term this would be bearish, it could mean we could fall down to 50k before seeing 70k again, but in the mid to long term this would be uber-bullish, the cycle high in 2025 could then easily surpass $200.000 or even more.

Let's see how it plays out, interesting times ahead

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Your analysis of late March, where you predicted a deeper fall below 60k, was actually quite good (even it the dip got lower than your predicted 57-58k, but I believe this was mainly due to long liquidations and a mini-panic)

I am also quite a fan of Elliott waves because they can be explained well with mass psychology and with the "overbought"/"oversold" conditions.

For the current slightly bearish movement we're seeing since the March ATH of >73k, I think the most likely options are (in decreasing probability, from my subjective point of view):

1) a bearish wave 4 in a ~2-3-year bullish cycle with peak in late 2024 or early 2025. Wave 1 would have been, in this case, the movement in late 2022 to mid-2023 up to 32k. Wave 2 would have been the consolidation down to 25-26k, and Wave 3 then the whole way up to 73K. This means that after this wave 4 has bottomed, an "euphoria phase" with >100k could follow.
2) a correction inside a bullish wave 3, peak would be in early to mid 2025. This would be even more bullish, because then we could expect some more ATHs (perhaps up to 80-90k or even 100k) before wave 4 sets in and brings us again down to 55-70k or so. The likelihood of this scenario, in my opinion, has however lowered in favour of scenario 1 due to the relatively weak last weeks.
3) a bearish wave 2 in a 3-4-year bullish cycle, peak in late 2025 or even 2026. This would be the most bullish option, but I think it's relatively unlikely. Basically that would mean that everything from 15.5k up to 73k was a Wave 1. And in my opinion, taking into account the attention levels and psychologic sentiment (Google Trends, Greed & Fear etc.) we have already advanced more than this stage. The only argument in favour of that scenario is tha none of the corrections we've seen in this bull market before the current wave was really important enough to be considered a "wave". In the short term this would be bearish, it could mean we could fall down to 50k before seeing 70k again, but in the mid to long term this would be uber-bullish, the cycle high in 2025 could then easily surpass $200.000 or even more.

Let's see how it plays out, interesting times ahead

There is a wave, a pullback, from 11-JAN-2024 to 23-JAN-2024, a -21.50% decline, which your first option is overlooking perhaps ?

[d5000]

There is a wave, a pullback, from 11-JAN-2024 to 23-JAN-2024, a -21.50% decline, which your first option is overlooking perhaps ?

Completely correct, and in fact I was favouring my model "2" until the 56.5k dip happened just for this reason.

However, while the pullback in January was significant regarding the "depth" of the correction, with over 20% loss, it was very short compared to the mid-2023 pullback (31->25k) and the current pullback (73-56.5). The January pullback lasted less than two weeks, while the other two, which I thus favour to be the 2 and 4 bearish waves were much longer (the current pullback will soon be 2 months long). We could thus explain the January pullback simply as a period of higher-than-normal volatility inside a minor pullback due to the ETF decisions.

But I don't rule out that model 2 is still the one to follow. Would be of course more bullish. If 56.5k was the bottom there are still chances that this model holds.

The model you're favouring, which is my item 3, is of course also not impossible. This would be basically equivalent to the "Supercycle" or "this time it's different" theory. But I have slight doubts about it. I also think I disagree that the peak of this wave would be the end of the uptrend since 2011. IMO such long cycles in the case of a novel asset like Bitcoin can only be evaluated taking into account the real adoption/success.

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[josegines]

When will we know that MINOR 2 is over?  

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When will we know that MINOR 2 is over?  

An impulsive five-wave bounce, from either the 51K or 44K zone, ought to confirm MINOR-2 pullback is complete.
 

[josegines]

When will we know that MINOR 2 is over?  

An impulsive five-wave bounce, from either the 51K or 44K zone, ought to confirm MINOR-2 pullback is complete.
 

then you think it hasn't finished falling, because the low was around 53k

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then you think it hasn't finished falling, because the low was around 53k

Correct, decline still not over yet. Expecting 51K zone at the very least.

[d5000]

I think the categorization of this bearish wave as "Minor 2" is still wrong. For me, "minor 2" was the 32k-25k pullback in 2023 as I wrote above.

So basically @OP, even if you're short-term bearish, in my opinion you're still too mid-term bullish ("Minor 2" would mean basically that wer'e still in a beginning bull market.)

Of course the 32-25k pullback doesn't look that more bearish than the "minute" pullbacks we've seen in other occasions (48k -> 38k for example).

But Elliott waves in my opinion are not purely mathematical theories, but ways to try to condense mass psychology phenomenons into a chart pattern. And that's basically what I think it's wrong: The current market sentiment isn't at all looking like we just escaped a long crypto winter. Instead, the euphoria near the ATH in March was clearly already a sign of a fully developed bull market, albeit very likely not comparable to the "new paradigm" sentiment near a cycle top.

This is why I still think we're in a "minor 4" wave. I also don't rule out the bottom of this wave is already in, above all taking into account that news like the MtGox payout generally generate most fear when they are announced, and when they are already occurring (like now), the panic is reduced every day. But of course lower lows are still possible in this wave. 51k would indeed be a mark where I would expect support due to the relatively long sideways pattern in early 2024 in this region. Next mark for me would not be 44 but 48.5k (the "ETF local high" in January).

[josegines]

What I would like is to know how to identify the new ATH, so I will continue here to get some clue.

Will it arrive this year or next?

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What I would like is to know how to identify the new ATH, so I will continue here to get some clue.

Will it arrive this year or next?