2024 Elliott Wave

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Does it have to be below $54k?
Wouldn't there be any possibility that this new drop would reach above 54k?
a wave failure or something that could fit

Very Thanks!!

Expecting 51K at the very least, which is a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the entire bull market since the NOV-2022 low.
If there is a new all-time high before the pullback, then the Fibonacci levels will change.

[josegines]

Does it have to be below $54k?
Wouldn't there be any possibility that this new drop would reach above 54k?
a wave failure or something that could fit

Very Thanks!!

Expecting 51K at the very least, which is a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the entire bull market since the NOV-2022 low.
If there is a new all-time high before the pullback, then the Fibonacci levels will change.

It is increasingly clear that we need an Elliot 2025 to know how this bullrun ends

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

It is increasingly clear that we need an Elliot 2025 to know how this bullrun ends

Will be happy to get just a few months right in 2024

[el kaka22]

For those who do not understand why and how that works, could you explain to us why do you expect a drop to 51k? Or even more? I am looking at the chart, and the weekly moving average seems fine, and the indicators that I check, or even something as simple as fear/greed index type of stuff, all of them shows a potential to grow a lot more. That's something more realistic, reaching to 70k from here, wouldn't be that hard, we are talking about 5% or so, that would be very likely and happens even daily, wouldn't be a shock to anyone.

What you are talking about is a drop beyond 20%, and I do not think that it would be possible at this point, and I am not just saying that because of my gut feeling, which also says that it won't happen, but I am putting this based on EMA and weekly, even BB says so, I feel like it doesn't really look like something that could be happening. But I have never used Elliot Wave before, so I would like to learn, what that means, how that works, and how is that showing something closer to 51k, which is such a huge drop. If you could explain that, it would be lovely so that we would be able to check it ourselves as well whenever we want to instead of bothering you.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

For those who do not understand why and how that works, could you explain to us why do you expect a drop to 51k? Or even more? I am looking at the chart, and the weekly moving average seems fine, and the indicators that I check, or even something as simple as fear/greed index type of stuff, all of them shows a potential to grow a lot more. That's something more realistic, reaching to 70k from here, wouldn't be that hard, we are talking about 5% or so, that would be very likely and happens even daily, wouldn't be a shock to anyone.

What you are talking about is a drop beyond 20%, and I do not think that it would be possible at this point, and I am not just saying that because of my gut feeling, which also says that it won't happen, but I am putting this based on EMA and weekly, even BB says so, I feel like it doesn't really look like something that could be happening. But I have never used Elliot Wave before, so I would like to learn, what that means, how that works, and how is that showing something closer to 51k, which is such a huge drop. If you could explain that, it would be lovely so that we would be able to check it ourselves as well whenever we want to instead of bothering you.

Elliott Waves are often related to each other in Fibonacci relationships; see here:
https://www.elliottwave.com/waveopedia/fibonacci-relationships/

From the 21-NOV-2022 low to 14-MAR-2024 high, a five wave impulsive structure appears to be complete —the first wave of the bull market leg.

Typically, this first leg is retraced a Fibonacci 38.2% which is around 51K.

[d5000]

I'm not convinced about the 38.2% retracement being that important. In the last bull run without drastic external influences (I'm referring here to the "Covid crash" in 2020), which was the rally between 2015-2017, there were a few times when the price indeed retracted by a bit more than a third, but that were only flash crashes (e.g. the post-halving dip in 2016 from 750ish to 500ish, and the 1130ish to 780ish dip in January 2017 caused by the discussion about the allowance of Bitcoin futures contract at this moment - rally had started at $135 so it was in both cases probably less than a 38.2 % retracement).

The 53.5K dip was imo already close enough to that kind of retracement, and that the dip stopped before reaching the 51k level predicted by Fibonacci retracement hypothesis can be perfectly explained by the lowering volatility due to increased liquidity we've seen from 2016/17 to 2024.

As I already wrote before (to justify that I'm not thinking we're currently in a "minor 2" wave but in "minor 4" or even already in "minor 5" if the 53k dip was the low) I'm in general of the opinion that technical indicators like Elliott waves always have to be employed together with an interpretation of market sentiment. As the Elliott wave theory is justified by mass psychology effects, using it in a purely mathematical way could lead to wrong conclusions.

Fibonacci levels are even more difficult to justify scientifically, however I'm also interpreting them as mass psychology phenomenons: it's the points approximately where some traders who sold near the top / bought near the bottom are likely to close positions because they may have achieved their goal with that trade. But if you interpret them in this way, then it loses importance if the retracement was of 35% or 40% or 38.2%.

Conclusion: It could still go down to <51k, but I think the probability is quite low.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I'm not convinced about the 38.2% retracement being that important. In the last bull run without drastic external influences (I'm referring here to the "Covid crash" in 2020), which was the rally between 2015-2017, there were a few times when the price indeed retracted by a bit more than a third, but that were only flash crashes (e.g. the post-halving dip in 2016 from 750ish to 500ish, and the 1130ish to 780ish dip in January 2017 caused by the discussion about the allowance of Bitcoin futures contract at this moment - rally had started at $135 so it was in both cases probably less than a 38.2 % retracement).

The 53.5K dip was imo already close enough to that kind of retracement, and that the dip stopped before reaching the 51k level predicted by Fibonacci retracement hypothesis can be perfectly explained by the lowering volatility due to increased liquidity we've seen from 2016/17 to 2024.

As I already wrote before (to justify that I'm not thinking we're currently in a "minor 2" wave but in "minor 4" or even already in "minor 5" if the 53k dip was the low) I'm in general of the opinion that technical indicators like Elliott waves always have to be employed together with an interpretation of market sentiment. As the Elliott wave theory is justified by mass psychology effects, using it in a purely mathematical way could lead to wrong conclusions.

Fibonacci levels are even more difficult to justify scientifically, however I'm also interpreting them as mass psychology phenomenons: it's the points approximately where some traders who sold near the top / bought near the bottom are likely to close positions because they may have achieved their goal with that trade. But if you interpret them in this way, then it loses importance if the retracement was of 35% or 40% or 38.2%.

Conclusion: It could still go down to <51k, but I think the probability is quite low.

Yes, the COVID crash was very steep, but the daily/weekly/monthly candles managed to close above the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level...