When will Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy sell BTC?

[Vincom]

MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, has become a prominent player in the Bitcoin market through its aggressive accumulation strategy. Their recent purchase of 850 BTC in January 2024 signals continued confidence in Bitcoin's potential^[1], especially considering their reported $4 billion profit on previous investments^[2]. This stands in stark contrast to mid-2022, when the company faced criticism for incurring significant losses^[3].

Saylor claims MicroStrategy will never sell their Bitcoin^[4], positioning them as unwavering "diamond hands". However, as a publicly traded company with profit-seeking shareholders like Capital International Investors, Vanguard, and Blackrock^[5], the pressure to capitalize on significant price increases cannot be ignored.

While missing out on 2021's peak proved costly, MicroStrategy's MSTR stock price has surged nearly 500% since their initial Bitcoin investment in July 2020^[6]. However, some argue that failing to take profits during bull runs contradicts optimal investment strategies.

While Saylor's personal belief in Bitcoin's future might be genuine, shareholder pressure could compel MicroStrategy to reconsider its stance if Bitcoin reaches significant highs, like the projected $160,000 in 2025, followed by signs of a downward trend. Considering the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market, with the next peak expected in 2025, it wouldn't be surprising to see MicroStrategy potentially offload some of its Bitcoin holdings then.

MicroStrategy's significant holdings and regular Bitcoin purchases have generated considerable interest in the cryptocurrency market. If the company decides to sell its BTC in 2025, it could trigger various market reactions:

• Potential Positive Impacts: MicroStrategy's monthly disclosures regarding BTC purchases and sales offer valuable insights into their perspective on the market, potentially influencing investor sentiment. Selling alongside a major player like MicroStrategy could present an opportunity for some investors to align their own investment decisions.
• Potential Negative Impacts: A large-scale BTC sell-off by MicroStrategy could trigger significant fear and panic selling, leading to a sharp decline in the price. If a prominent advocate like MicroStrategy loses faith in Bitcoin, it could erode investor confidence and lead to a sustained price drop, potentially pushing the price below $60,000 by 2026.

While Bitcoin's price fluctuations are cyclical, and Saylor and MicroStrategy acknowledged this, I would be surprised if they held onto their BTC during the anticipated crypto winter of 2026-2027.

I would like to know your opinion on this issue:

• What are your thoughts on the possibility of Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin during the current bull cycle's distribution phase?
• If such a sale were to occur, how do you anticipate it affecting the price of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market?
• Do you consider the actions of individual entities, such as MicroStrategy, when making investment decisions?

References:
[1] MicroStrategy acquired 850 bitcoin for $37.2 million in January
[2] Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy Bitcoin Bet Tops $4B in Profit
[3] MicroStrategy’s Losses on Its Bitcoin Bet Near $1 Billion
[4] Michael Saylor Suggests MicroStrategy Will Never Sell Its Bitcoin
[5] MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR): Holders
[6] MicroStrategy becomes first listed company to buy bitcoin as part of its capital allocation strategy

[headingnorth]

If a Microstrategy shareholder wants to take profits all they have to do is sell their shares of the company. No need to sell any bitcoin for that.

If Michael Saylor himself wants to profit from his bitcoin investment then likewise he can just sell some shares of the company. Not a single bitcoin ever needs to be sold.

[yhiaali3]

If a Microstrategy shareholder wants to take profits all they have to do is sell their shares of the company. No need to sell any bitcoin for that.

If Michael Saylor himself wants to profit from his bitcoin investment then likewise he can just sell some shares of the company. Not a single bitcoin ever needs to be sold.

What you say is true. They can sell shares without selling a single Bitcoin, but what about the new buyers of the shares? They will become owners of Bitcoin. Do you guarantee that they will not sell Bitcoin? Then we will return to the first question: If they sell these huge amounts of Bitcoin, what will happen to the price?

Michael Saylor has proven that he is a strong believer in Bitcoin and kept all of his Bitcoin during the difficult days that passed for Bitcoin in the bear market and almost caused the bankruptcy of the company, but he remained steadfast despite all that, but in the end this is a profitable company and it is certain that they want to get some profits, so they must sell. Some stocks or some Bitcoin when the market is high enough for them.

[Jawhead999]

What's the point? this question is similar like "today the weather is cloudy, maybe it will rain because bla bla, but there's a chance it will hot because bla bla".

I don't care whether MicroStrategy, Elon Musk, Robert Kiyosaki, Craig Wright, Donald Trump, Warren Buffet etc want to sell their own coins. If they sell their coins, there are many people want to buy it, so they're just the same like other people.

MicroStrategy didn't even have 1% of total BTC supply, it's not enough to manipulate the market, but they could manipulate the market because there's a lot stupid people are following the self pro claimed professional economist, investor, trader etc.


https://www.coingecko.com/en/public-companies-bitcoin

[headingnorth]

If a Microstrategy shareholder wants to take profits all they have to do is sell their shares of the company. No need to sell any bitcoin for that.

If Michael Saylor himself wants to profit from his bitcoin investment then likewise he can just sell some shares of the company. Not a single bitcoin ever needs to be sold.

What you say is true. They can sell shares without selling a single Bitcoin, but what about the new buyers of the shares? They will become owners of Bitcoin. Do you guarantee that they will not sell Bitcoin? Then we will return to the first question: If they sell these huge amounts of Bitcoin, what will happen to the price?

I don't think you understand how stocks works. As a shareholder in Microstrategy, or any other company, you are only allowed to buy and sell your share of the company.

It has nothing to do with buying and selling any actual bitcoin which you cannot dictate for Microstrategy to do.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I don't think you understand how stocks works. You own a share of the company. As a shareholder you are only allowed to buy and sell your share of the company.

It has nothing to do with buying and selling any actual bitcoin.

It depends, if you control a sufficient percentage of the company you can influence or directly decide the company's policy, which can include deciding to buy or sell bitcoin. But the majority shareholder with almost 100% of MSTR's shares is Michael Saylor, so the company will do what he says. And it seems quite clear that what it will do is not to sell but to continue accumulating, perhaps with the exception of a small sale for tax reasons, as has happened before.

[pooya87]

Considering how their purchases in the past never really had any meaningful effect on the price, it is obvious that their possible sale in the future is also not going to have any meaningful effect on the price! This is both because they buy/sell in a way that doesn't shock the market (eg. small increments, OTC, etc.) and also because the market is bigger than that to be significantly affected by these things.

When will they sell? That's not something we can know.
I just hope they sell, the more they sell the better. That's because I hate centralization and any centralized entity owning a large number of coins, specially when they do it with other people's money.

[Ambatman]

What you say is true. They can sell shares without selling a single Bitcoin, but what about the new buyers of the shares? They will become owners of Bitcoin. Do you guarantee that they will not sell Bitcoin? Then we will return to the first question: If they sell these huge amounts of Bitcoin, what will happen to the price?

I think you getting it wrong
They are buying the shares of Microstrategy not explicitly Bitcoin
The shares are been bought because of Microstrategy holdings of Bitcoin
This can be seen from the increase in their valuation of share since early last year.

Now moving on to OP question
1. Imo is their choice. Is their holdings they can choose to continue holding or selling, but we can't tell when that would occur.
2. If it's to take profit,  there wouldn't be much impact. The Bitcoin would be sold in smaller units that it wouldn't affect their market
Don't forget their recent Soaring valuation is as a result of Holding Bitcoin
Many investors are interested.
If in case of liquidation, Then there would be a short term dip but the market would correct itself and the sold Bitcoin would be shared and reduce Centralization.
3. I don't really. If you swayed by their actions you would fall under market manipulation tactics that most usually employ.

I just hope they sell, the more they sell the better. That's because I hate centralization and any centralized entity owning a large number of coins, specially when they do it with other people's money.

Grayscale is a living proof of this defect.
If anything happens to the firm
Shareholders would start withdrawing and Microstrategy would have to sell their holdings to meet up with their investors demand.

[wxa7115]

I would like to know your opinion on this issue:

• What are your thoughts on the possibility of Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin during the current bull cycle's distribution phase?
• If such a sale were to occur, how do you anticipate it affecting the price of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market?
• Do you consider the actions of individual entities, such as MicroStrategy, when making investment decisions?

Concentrate on what you control, whether Saylor sells his coins or not and when this could happen have nothing to do with us, focus on keeping your coins secure, avoiding scams and investing what you can afford on bitcoin.

Those three actions have way bigger effect on your results as an investor than anything Saylor could do, could Saylor single-handedly crash the market and as such affect you if he wanted? Yes, but you have no way to know what he will do, making those speculations a waste of time for the most part.

[yhiaali3]

I think you getting it wrong
They are buying the shares of Microstrategy not explicitly Bitcoin
The shares are been bought because of Microstrategy holdings of Bitcoin
This can be seen from the increase in their valuation of share since early last year.

Yes, I completely understand this. I know that they are “buying Microstrategy shares and not Bitcoin explicitly.” I know that selling a few shares of the company will certainly not make any change, but I am talking about the case if the company sells a large amount of shares and the new buyer obtains a high percentage of the company’s shares. Then new buyers will have the right to make important decisions in the company, such as the decision to sell Bitcoin, if they can obtain the appropriate percentage.

[adaseb]

He will eventually start to sell his bitcoin, but nobody knows at what price. He bought some recently so most likely not at these levels but if we break ATH or hit $100K then I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts to scale out of some positions.

Everyone has a price for some it’s $50k, for some it’s $69K and for some it’ll be $100K or $1M, eventually they will all start to take profits. Nobody wants to round trip their entire position. Which is kind of what happened to MSTR when it topped in late 2021 and they ended up being underwater.

[Kakmakr]

You are looking at a scenario where they have to dump all their coins at the same time, to take profit... but that is not neccesarry.

They can sell a few coins to satisfy their shareholders and to accumelate more fiat to buy more coin, when the price drop again in the future.

"Diamond hands" will never sell all their coins... so forget about that.

[Ambatman]

but I am talking about the case if the company sells a large amount of shares and the new buyer obtains a high percentage of the company’s shares. Then new buyers will have the right to make important decisions in the company, such as the decision to sell Bitcoin, if they can obtain the appropriate percentage.

Why would the company want to sell huge amount of their shares?
If there's no liquidation threat or stagnation I see no reason why saylor would or other big holders would want to sell their shares
I understand your view but you should realise that even those that bought the share wouldn't want to sell all their holdings in a single breath
It would have a more negative effect and dip in the share valuation than in Bitcoin
One major attraction of Microstrategy is their holdings of Bitcoin
If they loss this advantage
Their share price would take a hit.

[Learn Bitcoin]

I understand what they said. But, I don't think it's true fact that they will never sell their Holdings. There will be a time when they have to take profit from their investment. If they want to cash out their profits, there are no other ways except selling their Bitcoin. But, if they keep their Bitcoin as an investment asset only and want to calculate the profits as unrealized, then why not?

They could do it as long as they want. I am not part of their team and don't know what is happening in their mind. They may be saying those positive things to influence the market. We never know the truth.

[thecodebear]

People get too obsessed with whether big holders are going to sell or not. Who cares. Microstrategy is on a bitcoin standard, they will continue accumulating bitcoin when they can. They have already sold once for tax accounting purposes, I'm sure they will sell some at other points in the future. I have no idea if they will try to play the market cycles or not, and it doesn't matter. Anyway it doesn't seem like Saylor has much interest in trying to gamble and beat the market with his company's holdings, but rather the safe choice of continuously accumulating more. If he wanted to play the market cycles he wouldn't have been buying all through the bull market in 2021.

[retreat]

No one knows when they will sell the Bitcoin they hold. They can sell when the Bitcoin price is rising or when it is falling, it depends on their decision. However, it doesn't matter when they will sell the Bitcoin they hold, because it won't have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market.

[BALIK]

If a Microstrategy shareholder wants to take profits all they have to do is sell their shares of the company. No need to sell any bitcoin for that.

If Michael Saylor himself wants to profit from his bitcoin investment then likewise he can just sell some shares of the company. Not a single bitcoin ever needs to be sold.

We all invest in bitcoin with the ultimate goal of profit, so even if they sell their bitcoins it is not surprising. And whether they want to sell their shares of the company or sell bitcoin is up to them to decide, there are no regulations prohibiting them from selling bitcoin when they want to make a profit.

Furthermore, why are so many people afraid of big investors selling their bitcoin? Bitcoin is a financial market and anyone has the right to buy and sell, why do we always ask stupid questions and get scared when someone sells large amounts of bitcoin? If there are sellers, there will be buyers, and the market will always be like that, there is nothing to fear what will happen even if Satoshi sells all his bitcoins, let alone these organizations.

[Lucius]

Considering how their purchases in the past never really had any meaningful effect on the price, it is obvious that their possible sale in the future is also not going to have any meaningful effect on the price! This is both because they buy/sell in a way that doesn't shock the market (eg. small increments, OTC, etc.) and also because the market is bigger than that to be significantly affected by these things.
~snip~

I don't remember exactly if it was like that in the beginning, because the first public purchase was in the amount of $250 million and some 20 000+ BTC, which probably had a positive effect on the price, but not even close when the news appeared that the companies of Mr. Mars invested in BTC. I concluded a long time ago that the number of BTC that someone bought is not too important, it is much more important who bought them.

Saylor doesn't have nearly the influence that some other people have, regardless of the fact that he is positive about Bitcoin unlike those other people. However, what Saylor is doing is far from the idea on which Bitcoin was built, so the question is always whether what he is doing is positive or negative for Bitcoin in the long term?

I still think that for him, regardless of the statements he makes, Bitcoin is just a business that should result in profit, and it is not impossible that one day he will sell part or all of the BTC that his company bought.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

It's likely that everyone here has our own opinion, but it's only up to Michael Saylor as to when he is going to sell. But for sure, with the current sentiments and the approaching block halving, most likely the selling point not just for Saylor but for us long term holder is near the all time high.

They have big amount of Bitcoin in their arsenal, we might or might not known when they are going to sell as obviously it will have a impact on the market. So depends on how they sell it, OTC or other methods that those like whale alerts might not have known when they are going to dump.

[BlackBoss_]

I don't remember exactly if it was like that in the beginning, because the first public purchase was in the amount of $250 million and some 20 000+ BTC, which probably had a positive effect on the price, but not even close when the news appeared that the companies of Mr. Mars invested in BTC. I concluded a long time ago that the number of BTC that someone bought is not too important, it is much more important who bought them.

https://saylortracker.com/
The first purchase is 16796 BTC and a second purchase is 21454 BTC with its value at $250M that is mentioned by you. MicroStrategy even bought 19452 BTC when Bitcoin was exchanged at $52,765.

MicroStrategy or Mr. Mars (Elon) is only booster to hype the market that is necessary to help Bitcoin gets more attention from new investors and attract more capital to this market. In 2024, we will have Bitcoin Spot ETFs but they will not only components that contribute to Bitcoin growth and new all time high.

Tesla investment history in Bitcoin with a purchase when Bitcoin was about $38,000.
https://bitcointreasuries.net/entities/2

Rumor is SpaceX invested in Bitcoin too and Elon Musk confirmed in a Twitter Space.

I still think that for him, regardless of the statements he makes, Bitcoin is just a business that should result in profit, and it is not impossible that one day he will sell part or all of the BTC that his company bought.

He and MicroStrategy will take profit and they will not hold all their bitcoins forever. They can take profit partially with their bitcoins to polish their company balance sheet and financial report. They can come back to purchase bitcoin again but I don't believe if they will never take any profit from Bitcoin investment.