Demand for bitcoin exceeds supply by a factor of ten?

[headingnorth]

According to this only 900 bitcoins are mined every day but the current demand is ten times that amount.

If that is true then it is not hard to imagine what will happen to the price of bitcoin.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/YRKRn0Bozvc

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[NotFuzzyWarm]

Lose the "according to <random utube video>" and learn how Bitcoin works... The is no 'according to', it is straight math.

On average a block is found every 10 min meaning (on average) 144 blocks per-day are found. Current reward is 6.25BTC so yes that is 900 new BTC per-day being minted. In April the Reward drops to 3.125BTC making a daily total of 450BTC per day so no new news here... Note that fees attached to the block reward are not included in the calculation. Why? Because the fees are paid using already minted coin.

As for 'demand exceeds supply', um, that is where the perceived value of BTC or for that matter, any currency or other thing of value, comes from... Even now, the supply is just fine. At it's current exchange rates there are few things I can or would care to buy that costs more than a small fraction of what 1BTC is worth...

[Fundamentals Of]

That's the current demand. But as we all know, demand goes up and down all the time. So there might be days when demand is much higher than the number of new Bitcoins released. There are also times when the demand is much lower. This is basically the reason why there is high and fall of the prices as well. It's basically the result of supply and demand.

This is also the reason why halving is a big deal. The demand may rise and fall, but since adoption rate is still very low and is fast growing, it is generally rising. Now compare this with the new supply that does not rise and fall, but only falls lower and lower, we can safely predict that the price will keep on rising in longer time frames. That's why hodlers are winners.

[bobbybkk]

Basically supply always meets demand in a market system.

Example: There are 10 bottles of water for sale at a price of 1 USD per bottle. Now 100 customer show up and want to buy a bottle of water.

What is the situation now: The customer start bidding for each bottle of water and the highest bidder gets 1 bottle and so on until all 10 bottles are sold. Supply meets demand at a certain price point

If you start to argue that you want for example a new car and like to pay only 5 USD per car, then of course there is a mismach between YOUR desired price point and the available supply of cars for sale at a market price.

[Knight Hider]

Demand and supply are always in equilibrium. If 900 are being mined, maybe 9000 are being sold by others. If not, price would increase to a new equilibrium.

[Yamane_Keto]

It is true that on average, 900 new BTC are mined per day, and in the coming weeks it will become 450BTC, but it does not affect the market directly, as these 900 are not sold directly in the spot market, and most of them are sold OTC, so changing the supply will not immediately affect the price, but there is a possibility To increase demand in the coming months in exchange for a shortage in supply, which will cause the price to rise.

If the fees continue at an average of 0.2158 BTC/block, this will be after halving

Total block reward: 6.25 + 0.2158 = 6.4658
new total block reward: 3.125+ 0.2158=3.3408

6.4658/2=3.2329

Halving still works, so the cheaper the fees, there is a good chance that the price will rise and vice versa.

for high fees:

3.125+1.5 =4.625
Far from 3.2329, which means less influence of halving

[dothebeats]

You forgot to take into account the existing coins that are being traded in the market on the daily.

That 900 being minted daily is on top of the circulating supply, too, so there's no undersupply or overflowing demand happening as the circulating supply kind of fills in those demands. It also goes up and down every single time, and you can't expect a bear market to keep a consistent demand similarly to that of a bull run.

Now if demand somehow overshoots and most bitcoins in circulation already belong to a lot of hands, you know what's next. However in the mean time that's not happening, as there are still loads of bitcoin available for grabs in exchanges and people are still not having that extreme FOMO that occurs during bull runs.

[headingnorth]

Lose the "according to <random utube video>" and learn how Bitcoin works... The is no 'according to', it is straight math.

On average a block is found every 10 min meaning (on average) 144 blocks per-day are found. Current reward is 6.25BTC so yes that is 900 new BTC per-day being minted. In April the Reward drops to 3.125BTC making a daily total of 450BTC per day so no new news here... Note that fees attached to the block reward are not included in the calculation. Why? Because the fees are paid using already minted coin.

As for 'demand exceeds supply', um, that is where the perceived value of BTC or for that matter, any currency or other thing of value, comes from... Even now, the supply is just fine. At it's current exchange rates there are few things I can or would care to buy that costs more than a small fraction of what 1BTC is worth...

If the video is "straight truth" in your words then why denigrate it just because it is from Youtube? If it is "straight truth" then shouldn't you be praising it?  

Youtube doesn't create the content it is simply a medium to communicate it. Don't confuse the two. So learn how Youtube works.

 

[Poker Player]

That's the current demand. But as we all know, demand goes up and down all the time.

Right, you always have to keep in mind that it is not a static thing.

Demand and supply are always in equilibrium. If 900 are being mined, maybe 9000 are being sold by others. If not, price would increase to a new equilibrium.

Well, I would qualify that this is at a specific price. In the last year the trend has been that supply has not matched demand by very little, so the price trend has been increasing. If there is demand for 900 bitcoins a day at a price of around $50k and only 850 are sold the way for those left not buying to prompt those holding bitcoin to sell is to raise the bid price.

[pooya87]

Demand is not something you can easily measure and then come up with a number like "10x higher" (or lower). There are ways we can speculate about demand and then the intrinsic value of bitcoin and I've always said that there is more demand than the supply (hence the intrinsic value is higher than this) but it is speculation, inaccurate and is definitely not 10x higher!
A smaller ratio is reasonable and it could even be suppressed by market manipulation (explaining why price isn't rising at that time despite higher demand) but higher ratio like 10x is impossible because price would shoot up to reach equilibrium. After all supply and demand have to be in equilibrium or close to it, otherwise price moves in a direction to reach it.

[adaseb]

Keep in mind that as we go higher and higher the demand might be the same but the supply will be higher because some will start to take profits.

You can see this with GBTC, as we went higher so did their flows and some other BTC etf also had negative flows for a couple of days.

The higher we go the more difficult it’ll be to maintain that momentum.

[Churchillvv]

The scarcity of every good always increase its demand and judging from the population in the world and with basic economical knowledge the higher it gets demanded the lower it circulates because of fear of missing Out but currently with the population of exchanges and Bitcoin adoption there is a tendency that there are lots of Bitcoin in exchanges waiting to be purchased/ claimed.

Perhaps there is no definite amount of demand, we all speculate at different levels the number of demand but it all mere speculations because it could be higher or even lower than we expected. so the your definite amount of 10x is obviously wrong/correct at the same time so it would be better left out that miss information.

[Catenaccio]

The scarcity of every good always increase its demand and judging from the population in the world and with basic economical knowledge the higher it gets demanded the lower it circulates because of fear of missing Out but currently with the population of exchanges and Bitcoin adoption there is a tendency that there are lots of Bitcoin in exchanges waiting to be purchased/ claimed.

Scarcity does not always lead to value.

Use cases and utility of it will make its value and very fortunately, with Bitcoin we have all, scarcity, use cases and utility. It explains Bitcoin growth in adoption, price and value since 2009.

Developers, scammers can use Bitcoin source code, fork an altcoin, change the total supply to 10M or 5M but its shit coin will not have price like x2 or x4 of Bitcoin price.

How many Bitcoin forks are there?

[Zaguru12]

Keep in mind that as we go higher and higher the demand might be the same but the supply will be higher because some will start to take profits.

You can see this with GBTC, as we went higher so did their flows and some other BTC etf also had negative flows for a couple of days.

The higher we go the more difficult it’ll be to maintain that momentum.

Exactly it is just a simple demand and supply chain. Since the last quarter of last year when the hype around bitcoin ETF started the demand level was higher and that’s why you could see that we have been in uptrend since and only got a heavy correction when GBTC started sell and also Microstrategy too. But right after that when the news of other ETF approved entities started buying we saw the price increasing and up till now in that zone. So when you see the buy side (price increase) is higher than the sell side then we can say the demand is higher than the supply but we can’t just simply quantify it base on percentage. The best thing we can have is the buying volume at that time which is also not accurate.

I will have to disagree with you that supply will overshadow demand yes it would after a long bullish period but overall the demand will increase more because of the massive adoption coming into bitcoin

[NotFuzzyWarm]

The simplest way to see in real time what the buy/sell amounts available and their pricing is to just use a site like https://bitcoinity.org/markets/coinbase/USD
Pick your local currency and exchange, in this case Coinbase and USD, and it is all displayed...

[adaseb]

I think the flows are slowing down. So far without blackrock we are about flat for the day. I think we might end up at $200M or so for the day.

Last Friday was also slower than usual. I don’t think we will have a period of 6 days where we got $500M of flows a day. But as long as these flow are not negative then we should be good.

It’s normal for many to take profits as we head higher. Many took profits in the $50k if they bought at the $40k dip at end of January.

[pooya87]

Keep in mind that as we go higher and higher the demand might be the same but the supply will be higher because some will start to take profits.

You can see this with GBTC, as we went higher so did their flows and some other BTC etf also had negative flows for a couple of days.

The higher we go the more difficult it’ll be to maintain that momentum.

I don't think we can compare ETFs with real Bitcoin in terms of adoption. The demand for them is very limited and is not going to grow over time, specially since it is a local thing not global like bitcoin itself.

However, with Bitcoin as the price grows there is increasing amount of media coverage (free advertisement) for it that attracts even more people to Bitcoin. That means the demand increases as the price goes up.

[hd49728]

I don't think we can compare ETFs with real Bitcoin in terms of adoption. The demand for them is very limited and is not going to grow over time, specially since it is a local thing not global like bitcoin itself.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs we are talking about are from USA and they only serve US. citizens. There are some other Bitcoin Spot ETFs in other nations but they are for local citizens, not global and not open accessed for everyone.

Even in the USA. there are some conditions to buy shares of those Bitcoin Spot ETFs and not all investors can meet those conditions. Customer and investor population of Bitcoin Spot ETFs are very limited, not wide like Bitcoin.

However, with Bitcoin as the price grows there is increasing amount of media coverage (free advertisement) for it that attracts even more people to Bitcoin. That means the demand increases as the price goes up.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs are very helpful to Bitcoin market in 2023 and 2024 with effects like you said. It's free advertisement for Bitcoin from companies that want to launch their products related to Bitcoin and get profit.

[kryptqnick]

The part about 900 BTC per day is simply a fact, as described and explained by NotFuzzyWarm. The part about the 10x demand, however, is more controversial. He's saying that 9,000 BTC is bought per day by two major Bitcoin ETF companies. I'm not sure where he's getting that information, but even assuming it's correct, it's still not right to compare it directly to the amount of new BTC being mined every day because there's plenty of BTC in circulating supply, plenty of BTC sellers, and also because we don't know how long this accumulation phase by ETFs will last.
And then, comparing 900 BTC per day with 9,000 BTC accumulation, he somehow jumps to 20x price increase conclusion. That's unsubstantiated.

[NotATether]

According to this only 900 bitcoins are mined every day but the current demand is ten times that amount.

If that is true then it is not hard to imagine what will happen to the price of bitcoin.

The supply is actually much higher than the coins being mined, for two reasons:

The first one is that there are loads of people and entities who are looking to dump their coins onto the market, which means there are plenty more for people to buy.

The seconds reason is that mined coins are not immediately available to spend since you have to wait for 100 blocks before you can spend the output of a coinbase transaction.

Notice how the price is only rising a little bit and not too much, or even staying steady sometimes? This is cased by only slightly higher demand as opposed to supply. Or sometimes the two are even equal.