Will Bitcoin Spot ETF's Manipulate Bitcoin's price?

[dim_mak5]

Hi new here

I worry that BlackRock and Vanguard and others in the Wall Street Gang issue paper bitcoin IOU's aka Bitcoin ETF's.

Who is going to Audit them that they have the real bitcoins to back up their BTC ETF's 1:1?

I ask because the Gold & Silver markets have been manipulated and cornered by these wall street criminals after their commodity ETF's been released decades ago.

All top investors say they allocate 5-10% of their portfolio into Gold most likely Gold ETF's. If that's the case then why Gold still stuck under $2000.

All bitcoin moonboys on youtube saying if all institutions just allocate just 2-3% of their portfolio then bitcoin marketcap will rise into $trillions and each bitcoin will easily be over $100k however if institutions have already allocated 5-10% of their portfolio into Gold then why gold price is not going anywhere?

Isn't it the interest of Wall Street to Supress the bitcoin price so they can buy it cheaply then issue more paper bitcoin ETF's against their real btc reserves to supress the price like fraud then when the holders of these ETF's decide to get real bitcoins instead then there wont be 1:1 bitcoin backup reserves causing ETF's to crash and blackrock get richer because they hold the real btc that they manage to trick btc hodlers to sell their real bitcoins to them.

We need to observe bitcoin hodler wallets on the btc blockchain and see if blackrock can manipulate btc hodlers into selling their real bitcoins to them when blackrock manipulate the price to $100k per btc then blackrock and wall street will have the most bitcoin in the world.

Cant we separate the btc price into 2, the free market btc price & the fake btc IOU ETF price?

[Darker45]

There's no point separating them when spot Bitcoin ETF is directly reflecting the real-time market price of Bitcoin.

However, I understand and share your fears. Despite regulatory safeguards and policies; despite regular audits and reports; despite the requirement of holding an amount of Bitcoin equivalent to that of the shares; despite a daily net asset value report, we know this won't be fully implemented. This is Wall Street's game. They own even the government.

I don't think there will ever be an honest-to-goodness business here. 1:1 is just on paper, that's why owning real Bitcoin is still the best way to do it.

[GreatArkansas]

For me, Bitcoin ETF could influence Bitcoin's price through various mechanisms.
Concerns about market manipulation are not unfounded, given the relatively unregulated nature of the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin spot ETF could potentially manipulate Bitcoin's price. Because at first, the essence of ETF which they can do trading easier and broader access to Bitcoin for both retail and institutional investors without need for them to hold the cryptocurrency directly.

[tranthidung]

I don't think there will ever be an honest-to-goodness business here. 1:1 is just on paper, that's why owning real Bitcoin is still the best way to do it.

Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin and gave us unique chance to own private key and be our own bank.

We already were given the chance and we are free to use it to secure our funds through Bitcoin and Bitcoin private keys. If we refuse the chance, and decide to use custodial storage service like Bitcoin Spot ETFs that mostly partner with Coinbase as a custodian, we are accepting big risk.

We should never trust any third party company that they will keep our money safely. Trust sometimes will have to be charge with very expensive cost.

[avikz]

I don't know if Bitcoin ETF is going to manipulate the market price of Bitcoin, but the asset management companies that run the Bitcoin ETF can surely manipulate the market. Because the kind of money that these corporates are sitting on, it is very easy for them to manipulate it.

Gold is somewhat different in this comparison of price. It has a global market and it is very difficult for a single corporate to manipulate it. Also it doesn't have a limited supply, at least not a known limited supply. So I think gold should not be compared here in this case.

The major problem here is with the decentralization. The more and more corporates own it, the decentralization is gone. Manipulation is definitely possible but you really cannot say whether manipulation is really on going or not.

[Yamane_Keto]

Price has been manipulated for a while and in many ways. What you are talking about is manipulation of the asset, not the price.

The only Bitcoin you own is the one that you have withdrawn from the platforms to your wallet where you have the private key. All other forms of ownership are certificates from a third party telling you that you have an amount of Bitcoin that is kept for you, but these claims cannot be believed or denied.These entities can manipulate even the presence of observe bitcoin hodler wallets, and it is easy to buy bitcoin, so there is no need to trust a third party to do it for you.

[Darker45]

I don't think there will ever be an honest-to-goodness business here. 1:1 is just on paper, that's why owning real Bitcoin is still the best way to do it.

Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin and gave us unique chance to own private key and be our own bank.

We already were given the chance and we are free to use it to secure our funds through Bitcoin and Bitcoin private keys. If we refuse the chance, and decide to use custodial storage service like Bitcoin Spot ETFs that mostly partner with Coinbase as a custodian, we are accepting big risk.

We should never trust any third party company that they will keep our money safely. Trust sometimes will have to be charge with very expensive cost.

Satoshi's Bitcoin is pretty straightforward. You buy it and keep it. That's it.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are complicated and rather messy. It's not just a third party that we're forced to trust. While Satoshi's Bitcoin removes third parties, this spot Bitcoin ETF thing not only keeps it but even adds more, a whole lot more.

If your asset is managed by Charles Schwab, for example, you can actually buy BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF. Since BlackRock isn't allowed to directly purchase Bitcoin, it has authorized participants to do that on its behalf. J. P. Morgan is one. But then BlackRock's IBIT is also sponsored by iShares Delaware. And then there's Coinbase, the Bitcoin custodian. There's also BNY Mellon as the cash custodian and administrator.

So there's your brokerage firm, the trust, the sponsor of the trust, the trustee, the trustee of the trust, the custodian of the trust's Bitcoin holdings, the custodian of the trust's cash holdings, the administrator, that you need to fully trust. LOL! Further, there are also different regulating agencies that you also need to trust that they won't suddenly change tune in the middle of the game.

[adaseb]

Don’t worry about any manipulation. They are not creating paper bitcoins to crash the market. Many of the Bitcoin etfs have publicly published their cold storage of their holdings and you can see how much they have and compare it to their AUM.

And these are publicly traded companies and they need to file proper statements and documents to prove they own these bitcoins.

Many of the holders of these etfs are regular individuals who invest with their 401K. It’s not all Wall Street traders who want to crash the market.

[Odohu]

The entrance of spot ETF into Bitcoin will, at some point, make Bitcoin similar to other stocks such as Dow Jones that are heavily manipulated through different mechanisms. We should not expect that big institutions are coming to play fair because they never have and never will.  What happened on the day of approval, where Bitcoin pumped to over $48k before going downhill within a short time, is a classical indication of what is possible when deep pockets enters the market.

Like many contributors has already said, owning real Bitcoin is still a preferred option.

[takuma sato]

Of course they will attempt to manipulate the price for their own interests, but they really have to do nothing to gain money, beside run the business properly, that is, to be a good custodian and to track the BTC price, then collect the fees. So they are going to make a ton of money from just being good actors.

That doesn't mean they will be good actors tho. I predict some sort of push for a Bitcoin USD Government Friendly hard fork in the future, pushed by Blackrock and co. If I were to buy an ETF, I would but the Fidelity one.

[Jawhead999]

All top investors say they allocate 5-10% of their portfolio into Gold most likely Gold ETF's. If that's the case then why Gold still stuck under $2000.

All bitcoin moonboys on youtube saying if all institutions just allocate just 2-3% of their portfolio then bitcoin marketcap will rise into $trillions and each bitcoin will easily be over $100k however if institutions have already allocated 5-10% of their portfolio into Gold then why gold price is not going anywhere?

It because Gold isn't that scarce in the first place, no ones know the total supply unlike Bitcoin. You shouldn't compare between a transparent and very limited asset with a private and limited asset.

Cant we separate the btc price into 2, the free market btc price & the fake btc IOU ETF price?

Why only into two markets? there are more than two:

1. P2P and DEX BTC price.
2. Shitcoins pegged to Bitcoin e.g. WBTC, BTCB.
3. Centralized exchange price.
4. ETFs.

[thecodebear]

I remember reading about the whole "Wall St manipulates the price of Gold to keep it down" thing a couple years ago when I was reading up on Gold. Had no idea if there is any truth to it or if its just a gold bug conspiracy theory. But it seems like all gold bugs bring it up a lot. I'm guessing its more conspiracy theory than reality.


Anyway, Bitcoin ETFs simply buy (or sell) based on their customer's purchases of the ETF. Not sure what you're talking about OP when you talk about paper bitcoins. They literally have to buy the bitcoin with their customers money and in exchange the customer gets an ETF share of the same value. "Paper bitcoins" don't come into it anywhere. They aren't issuing anything other than ETF shares, which are based on the money their clients give them to buy bitcoin with.


And Gold is a very old asset. Everybody already owned Gold. And still it like doubled in price from 2009 to 2011 in the aftermath of the great recession and when the Gold ETF hit. You act like Gold price never moves, but it moved a ton during that time. Then after the global economy mostly went back to normal people dropped their Gold and the price went back down some, and stayed there until 2019/2020 when it went up due to economic concerns and then covid to current price. Gold has actually moved a ton the past 15 years considering how mature of an asset it is and the fact that its only main purpose is as a store of value.


In your post you literally described what you think Wall St will do with Bitcoin ETFs as fraud. You think they are going to commit fraud and potentially go to jail just to keep the price of Bitcoin down? While they are going to make a bunch of money off their customers buying their ETFs and a Bitcoin price that goes down would only hurt their business. Also the ETFs simply follow the spot price because they have to buy actual bitcoin for the ETFs.

Also what is this about Blackrock manipulating people into selling them their bitcoin?! lol. People sell because they want to sell. Nobody is like "oh I better sell my bitcoin so Blackrock can buy it!" Like what are you even talking about? The ETFs are just new participants in the Bitcoin market, buying on behalf of the clients who are purchasing shares of the ETFs.

Your whole post sounds like a big conspiracy theory tbh.

[Smack That Ace]

Will Bitcoin Spot ETF's Manipulate Bitcoin's price?

This world is controlled by people with a lot of money, so even without a bitcoin ETF, there will be other ways for institutions and sharks to manipulate bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. And speaking of price manipulation, you should know that bitcoin price has never been completely determined by supply and demand, it has always been the most manipulated asset and that is why it has a high level of volatility.

Bitcoin was created by satoshi to be a peer-to-peer currency, a decentralized asset, but we ourselves turned it into a financial market. And once it is a financial market, manipulation is inevitable, whether we have a bitcoin ETF or not.

[Ruttoshi]

I hate third party, because they will always look for a way to manipulate the market since they have investors bitcoin in their custody. They are never out to help you safeguard your bitcoin, but they are out to make profit from your bitcoin that you will keep in there custody.

One thing that I like in bitcoin due to it decentralized nature is that, the price can be manipulated but it will only be in a short term, and bitcoin price will go back to the way it was designed. There are still people that keep their bitcoin in self custody wallets, this is why the price manipulation will not last.

[Husires]

Many have tried to imitate Bitcoin and failed. The attempts began with altcoins, then bitcoin forks, and when the alternatives did not work, we found that Wrapped tokens had begun to appear, such as wBTC, and then we find Bitcoin on more than one blockchain. However, most people still know what Bitcoin is, and many decide to withdraw it to their wallets.

Gold has lost its luster not because of the conspiracy theory, but there are other investments that give a better return. There are lands, real estate, debts, bonds, stocks, and cryptocurrencies, and under each of these are thousands of assets that may have a higher ROI than gold.

[esinka1903]

"Satoshi's Bitcoin is pretty straightforward. You buy it and keep it. That's it.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are complicated and rather messy. It's not just a third party that we're forced to trust. While Satoshi's Bitcoin removes third parties, this spot Bitcoin ETF thing not only keeps it but even adds more, a whole lot more."  I agree 100%.




This what I say all the time. It's totally out of context for blockchain technology itself. The main purpose was to not rely on third parties, old school banking system, and now we are just back on track with the same things. I never understand the logic

[thecodebear]

"Satoshi's Bitcoin is pretty straightforward. You buy it and keep it. That's it.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are complicated and rather messy. It's not just a third party that we're forced to trust. While Satoshi's Bitcoin removes third parties, this spot Bitcoin ETF thing not only keeps it but even adds more, a whole lot more."  I agree 100%.




This what I say all the time. It's totally out of context for blockchain technology itself. The main purpose was to not rely on third parties, old school banking system, and now we are just back on track with the same things. I never understand the logic

I mean first of all, nobody is FORCED to trust the institutions that offer these ETFs haha. People willingly choose to buy the ETFs. Some people prefer to simply have bitcoin be an investment rather than use it in the future as a currency one day, and they prefer to invest in it through a financial product offered by their financial institutions rather than take on the responsibility of owning it themselves.

Bitcoin is a currency. Bitcoin ETFs are financial products that make it easy for people to invest in, and not own, Bitcoin. Two very different things, both very desired by  millions of people.

Bitcoin ETFs don't stop you from using bitcoin. They don't stop you from not relying on third parties. lol. It's just a different way to invest (rather than use) Bitcoin. We are not "just back on track with the same things". Bitcoin still exists! ETFs didn't make Bitcoin not exist all of a sudden haha. It's just a different way to use one of Bitcoin's features (specifically its feature that it is a supply capped asset and so appreciates over time). Or if you thought Bitcoin would just destroy all national currencies and it would be the only currency used in the world and everyone would be keeping their own private keys...well I guess you just never thought about reality tbh haha ;p

I feel like some bitcoiners need to step out of the bubble and realize the world is a big place and not everyone is going to directly use Bitcoin as a currency exactly the way you want them to. Not everyone is going to store bitcoin in cold wallets. Not everyone is gonna run their own node. Bitcoin was designed for those things, yes, and that ability is always open to anyone who wants to take full advantage of Bitcoin's features. But in no way does that mean everyone has to take advantage of every feature of Bitcoin. And in no way does that fact do anything to make Bitcoin less than what it is.

Having a concept of the ideological concept of Bitcoin as sovereign borderless decentralized money is a good thing. But acting as though reality not conforming to perfect ideology means Bitcoin is somehow corrupted or failing or being manipulated is very naive.

[fzkto]

Any big player who has a lot of bitcoins can manipulate the market. It used to be cryptocurrency exchanges that could easily set the price direction they wanted. Then it became the futures cme etf. Now it has become wall street. Although any of them can influence the price. This market is still very young and highly manipulative.

[The Cryptovator]

Your concern is reasonable; the Bitcoin ETF means more Bitcoin holdings by centralised organisations. They could definitely manipulate the market if they wanted since they are holding a large amount of bitcoin. But there should be transparency that they are holding exact allocations of trading on their platform. And since the SEC approved them for Bitcoin ETF trading, they should audit their exchange holdings. They should make sure exchanges aren't faking their holdings. An audit should be done by a third party from time to time and submit the report to the SEC. 

[AmoreJaz]

There's no point separating them when spot Bitcoin ETF is directly reflecting the real-time market price of Bitcoin.

However, I understand and share your fears. Despite regulatory safeguards and policies; despite regular audits and reports; despite the requirement of holding an amount of Bitcoin equivalent to that of the shares; despite a daily net asset value report, we know this won't be fully implemented. This is Wall Street's game. They own even the government.

I don't think there will ever be an honest-to-goodness business here. 1:1 is just on paper, that's why owning real Bitcoin is still the best way to do it.

We can't be very sure about their exact holdings. But yes, a regular third party audit can possibly lessen their thoughts of faking their holdings. However, the third party should have a very good reputation on this job. Otherwise, they can just easily practice the under-the-table scheme.

And I don't think they can really manipulate the btc market because there are so many stakeholders with varying interests. But they can surely influence the sentiments of the holders by giving some statements towards this market. So holders should be very careful in jumping over the hype that they can possibly create. Don't trust them too much about what they release to the public.