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Author Topic: Estimation on time until reaching next difficulty level  (Read 2100 times)
Alexium
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April 06, 2011, 02:17:12 PM
 #1

Greetings!
I'd like to hear from those familiar with the system's statistics. How much time would you say we have until next difficulty level, considering the present hashrate and the hashrate growth speed?

Thanks!
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin-Qt, but full nodes are more resource-heavy, and they must do a lengthy initial syncing process. As a result, lightweight clients with somewhat less security are commonly used.
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cdhowie
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April 06, 2011, 02:25:03 PM
 #2

Greetings!
I'd like to hear from those familiar with the system's statistics. How much time would you say we have until next difficulty level, considering the present hashrate and the hashrate growth speed?

Thanks!
The hash target is adjusted every 2016 blocks to try to cause the next 2016 blocks to take two weeks to find.  So, if the network's hash strength is growing, you can expect the target to adjust a bit sooner than two weeks.

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April 06, 2011, 02:26:43 PM
 #3

Current Blocks: 117028 | Current Difficulty: 82347.22294654 | Next Difficulty At Block: 118943 | Next Difficulty In: 1915 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 2 weeks, 0 days, 12 hours, 57 minutes, and 20 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 76076.55229829

There is no strict numbers, always updated during 2 week period.

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Alexium
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April 06, 2011, 02:29:16 PM
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Please excuse a noob, I didn't know it's being ajusted periodically.
I think I read something about saltatory difficulty adjustment upon reaching some predefined amount of blocks (2 hundred thousand something).
Have to go RTFM.
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April 06, 2011, 02:32:48 PM
 #5

Please excuse a noob, I didn't know it's being ajusted periodically.
No need to excuse anyone; everyone starts a noob. Smiley

For further reading on this subject:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

If it's not clear from the articles, the difficulty is a function of the target; the target adjusts about every two weeks, and this changes the difficulty.

Tips are always welcome and can be sent to 1CZ8QgBWZSV3nLLqRk2BD3B4qDbpWAEDCZ

Thanks to ye, we have the final piece.

PGP key fingerprint: 2B7A B280 8B12 21CC 260A  DF65 6FCE 505A CF83 38F5

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Alexium
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April 06, 2011, 02:34:14 PM
 #6

Please excuse a noob, I didn't know it's being ajusted periodically.
No need to excuse anyone; everyone starts a noob. Smiley

For further reading on this subject:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

If it's not clear from the articles, the difficulty is a function of the target; the target adjusts about every two weeks, and this changes the difficulty.
Thanks!
xenon481
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April 06, 2011, 02:55:41 PM
 #7

the target adjusts about every two weeks, and this changes the difficulty.

More accurately, the target adjusts every 2016 blocks. If the period between retargets was less than two weeks, then the difficulty increases. If it was more than two weeks, the difficulty decreases.

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Alexium
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April 06, 2011, 02:59:02 PM
 #8

cdhowie, xenon481, thank you. I think I got it.
I still wonder what's an average speed of hashrate growth for, say, last 6 months. Or last year. Is it possible to find that out?
The idea is to calculate the difficulty for a given time in the future, based on the current trend.
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April 06, 2011, 03:28:00 PM
 #9

cdhowie, xenon481, thank you. I think I got it.
I still wonder what's an average speed of hashrate growth for, say, last 6 months. Or last year. Is it possible to find that out?
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png

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Alexium
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April 06, 2011, 03:32:29 PM
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Thank you. I never thought it was SO FAST. So sad I didn't know about the project last summer...
cdhowie
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April 06, 2011, 03:51:03 PM
 #11

More accurately, the target adjusts every 2016 blocks. If the period between retargets was less than two weeks, then the difficulty increases. If it was more than two weeks, the difficulty decreases.
That's exactly what I said in my first reply.  I was summarizing.  Tongue

Tips are always welcome and can be sent to 1CZ8QgBWZSV3nLLqRk2BD3B4qDbpWAEDCZ

Thanks to ye, we have the final piece.

PGP key fingerprint: 2B7A B280 8B12 21CC 260A  DF65 6FCE 505A CF83 38F5

SerajewelKS @ #bitcoin-otc
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