Daily Forex Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 22.08.2024





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD news analysis today is currently influenced by several key economic indicators. For today, the focus is on the U.S. data releases, including Jobless Claims and PMI figures, which will provide insights into the U.S. economy's health. Stronger-than-expected data could bolster the U.S. Dollar, leading to potential changes in the GBP/USD exchange rate. On the other hand, the U.K.'s PMI data and CBI Industrial Trends Survey are essential for gauging the British economy's performance. Better-than-expected U.K. data could support the Pound, but overall for this pair that is also known as the “Cable”, its market sentiment will largely be driven by U.S. economic indicators due to their global impact.


Price Action:
The GBP/USD H4chart, depicts the pair in a clear uptrend, with the price moving within an ascending channel. The recent candles show the Cable’s strong bullish momentum, with the price making higher highs and higher lows. The pair’s price action suggests that the pair is likely to continue its upward trajectory, although the price is currently approaching significant resistance levels that could lead to a temporary pullback or consolidation.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud:
The price is well above the Ichimoku Cloud, which is a strong bullish signal. The Tenkan-sen (blue) and Kijun-sen (red) lines are in a bullish crossover, further supporting the upward momentum. The Chikou Span (green) is also positioned above the price, confirming the bullish trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is currently around 79.88, indicating that the pair is in overbought territory. While this suggests that the bullish momentum is strong, it also warns of a possible correction or consolidation in the near term as the market may need to cool off.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels:
Immediate support is located at 1.3034, followed by stronger support at 1.2939, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud.
Resistance Levels:
The pair is currently testing resistance at 1.3089, with the next significant resistance level around 1.3140.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/USD technical analysis today shows a strong bullish trend, supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and the ascending channel formation. However, the RSI indicates that the pair is overbought, suggesting that a correction could be imminent. Traders should consider the upcoming U.S. economic data releases, which could influence the pair's forecast today. A break above 1.3089 could lead to further gains, but caution is advised due to the overbought RSI. Proper risk management, including setting stop-losses below the lower channel boundary, is recommended to protect against potential market volatility.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.26.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD news analysis today is influenced by a variety of macroeconomic factors, including crude oil prices (since Canada is a major oil exporter), interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, and economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment data, and inflation rates. Additionally, recent data releases related to U.S. durable goods orders are crucial as they indicate future production levels and economic strength. An actual reading higher than forecasted is generally seen as positive for the U.S. dollar. As a leading indicator of economic activity, a robust increase in these orders can signal that manufacturers anticipate stronger demand, which could support the USD against other currencies, including the CAD, subsequently affecting the pair also known as the “Loonie.”


Price Action:
The USD/CAD H4 chart shows the pair’s bearish trend, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. The Loonie’s price action has seen a downward momentum, breaking below key support levels, and trending within a downward-sloping channel. The pair’s candlestick patterns indicate selling pressure, with a lack of significant bullish reversal signs at the moment. A breakdown below the current support zone could lead to further declines, confirming the continuation of the bearish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating the pair’s bearish market sentiment. The cloud itself is acting as a resistance, and the lagging span (Chikou Span) confirms this bearish outlook as it is also below the price action. The future cloud is thin and bearish, suggesting that there is no immediate sign of reversal in this downtrend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 21, indicating that the market is in oversold territory. This suggests that while the bearish momentum is strong, there might be a potential for a short-term corrective bounce. However, oversold conditions alone do not indicate a reversal but rather that the current trend might be overstretched.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic indicator is also in the oversold region (around 10.92), which aligns with the RSI reading, indicating that the selling pressure might be nearing exhaustion. The possibility of a bullish crossover in the stochastic lines may hint at a potential short-term recovery, but confirmation is needed.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is seen at the 1.35062 level, which aligns with the lower boundary of the current descending channel. A break below this level could open the way towards further downside targets around 1.3450.
Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance level is marked at 1.35574, followed by a more significant resistance at 1.36139, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the descending channel and the Ichimoku cloud’s lower edge.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/CAD technical analysis today on the H4 timeframe is exhibiting its strong bearish sentiment, as evidenced by the technical indicators and the descending price channel. While oversold conditions on the RSI and Stochastic indicators suggest a possible short-term correction, the prevailing trend remains bearish. Traders should watch for the price action around the key support and resistance levels for potential breakout or reversal signals. The Loonie’s Fundamental analysis data, such as the upcoming durable goods orders release, could provide additional volatility and direction for the USD/CAD forecast. Risk management strategies, including the use of stop-loss orders, are advisable given the current market conditions.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
08.26.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

USD/JPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.27.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The upcoming economic data releases from both the US and Japan are set to influence the USD/JPY pair's direction prediction. In the US, key indicators such as the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, and Richmond Manufacturing Index will be released. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is expected to show a slight decrease from 6.8% to 6.2%, indicating a cooling in the housing market. Meanwhile, the CB Consumer Confidence index is expected to rise to 100.9 from a previous 100.3, suggesting improved consumer sentiment. The Richmond Manufacturing Index is projected to show an improvement from -17 to -14, which still indicates contraction but at a slower pace. These mixed data points could create a volatile trading environment for the USD.
On the Japanese side, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) y/y is forecasted to slightly decrease from 3.0% to 2.9%, signaling a potential slowdown in price pressures; which stands as an important forecast element for this fore pair. The BOJ Core CPI y/y is expected to remain stable at 2.1%, suggesting persistent inflation concerns within Japan. The stable inflation rate and the recent dovish stance of the Bank of Japan could continue to exert downward pressure on the JPY.


Price Action:
The USD/JPY pair is forming a bearish flag pattern on the H4 chart after a significant bearish wave, which suggests a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price is currently consolidating within this pattern, and a breakout to the downside could accelerate the bearish momentum. However, the presence of bullish technical indicators points to a possible short-term corrective wave.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 41.70, indicating bearish sentiment, yet it is not in the oversold territory, suggesting room for further downside before a reversal might occur.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The Stochastic is approaching the 70 level, indicating potential for a bullish wave in the short term if it crosses above this threshold. This could signal a temporary upward correction within the broader bearish trend.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The nearest support is at the lower trendline of the bearish flag pattern, around 144.00. A break below this level could see the pair testing the next support near 142.50, which aligns with previous lows.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the upper trendline of the bearish flag, around 145.00. A break above this level could target the next resistance at 146.50, potentially invalidating the bearish flag pattern and signaling a bullish reversal.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY H4 chart suggests that the pair is consolidating within a bearish flag pattern, with potential for further downside if key support levels are breached. Traders should closely monitor the upcoming economic data releases from both the US and Japan, as these could provide the catalyst for the next major move. Given the mixed signals from technical indicators and fundamental outlook, traders should be prepared for both bearish and short-term bullish scenarios, adapting their strategies accordingly to the evolving market conditions.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
08.27.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 28.08.2024



Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD pair, reflecting the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar, is currently navigating through various economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the United States. In the Eurozone, inflation data has presented a mixed picture. Germany's Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in flat at 0.0% for the month, below expectations of a 0.3% increase, suggesting subdued inflationary pressures in Europe's largest economy. Meanwhile, Spain's Flash CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which is below the anticipated 2.8%, indicating lower inflationary momentum than expected. These figures suggest that inflation concerns might be less pronounced in the Eurozone, possibly leading to a more dovish stance from the European Central Bank.
On the US side, economic indicators such as the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) q/q showed a stable 2.8% growth rate, aligning with market expectations. This stability is indicative of a resilient economic outlook in the US. Additionally, the Unemployment Claims remained consistent at 232K, further reinforcing a stable labor market. The Preliminary GDP Price Index, also stable at 2.3%, aligns with market forecasts, indicating controlled inflation in the US. These stable economic indicators in the US might support the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance, impacting the USD's strength relative to the Euro.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has experienced a notable bullish wave, driving the price higher towards key resistance levels. Recent price action suggests that this bullish momentum may be waning, as indicated by candlestick patterns that show indecision or possible reversal near these resistance levels. A bearish correction could be on the horizon, particularly if the bullish momentum fails to break through the established resistance.


Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows that Tenkan-sen (blue line) is about to cross below Kijun-sen (red line), a bearish signal suggesting potential trend reversal. The price has been trading above the cloud, indicating an uptrend, but the potential Tenkan-Kijun crossover is a warning of a shift in momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is showing a negative divergence, where the price makes higher highs, but the RSI fails to confirm those highs, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Currently, RSI is at 55.8787, which is in the neutral zone but leaning towards overbought conditions.
Volume Analysis: The volume has not significantly supported the recent bullish wave, implying that the upward momentum might lack the strength to sustain a further rally. Lower volume during price increases often indicates potential exhaustion of buying interest.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest resistance level is at 1.1187, which is a recent high and could serve as a barrier for further upward movement. A break above this level could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
Resistance: Key support levels to monitor include 1.1100, near the base of the Ichimoku cloud, and further below at 1.0975, where a significant Fibonacci retracement level lies.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD pair on the H4 chart is showing signs of a potential bearish correction following a strong bullish wave. Negative divergence in the RSI, a potential bearish Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen crossover in the Ichimoku Cloud, and low volume support suggest that the bullish momentum may be fading. Traders should look for confirmation of a reversal through price action around the current resistance level before considering short positions. Profit-taking could be aimed at key support levels like 1.1100 and 1.0975, using tight stop-losses to manage risk effectively.


Disclaimer: The EUR/USD analysis provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information. Always consider risk management strategies and consult with a financial advisor if necessary.


FXGlory
28.08.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.29.2024


Time Zone: GMT
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) is experiencing potential volatility due to key economic events scheduled today. In the US, the market will closely watch Raphael Bostic's speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, where his comments may provide insights into future monetary policy directions, affecting the USD's strength. Moreover, important data releases like the GDP Second Release and Unemployment Claims are expected, which can offer clues about the US economy's health and labor market. On the AUD side, no major economic releases are scheduled for today, which may keep the currency influenced primarily by external factors, especially from the USD.


Price Action:
The AUDUSD forex pair is showing a bullish trend on the H4 chart. The pair is trading within an ascending channel, with the recent candles moving towards the upper boundary. The last two candlesticks have shown positive movement, with the most recent candle being bullish, indicating sustained upward momentum. The AUD/USD price is currently moving between the 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci retracement levels, edging closer to the 100% mark. This suggests a strong upward bias, with the potential to test higher resistance levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands have tightened, indicating reduced volatility and a potential buildup for a breakout. The price has been trading in the upper half of the bands and is now near the upper band, suggesting that the bullish momentum is still intact. This position implies a higher probability of further upward movement in the AUD USD price. However, traders should watch for any signs of reversal as the price approaches the upper band limit.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is positioned above the signal line, and the histogram is showing positive but decreasing momentum. This indicates that while the bullish trend persists, the strength behind the movement is diminishing. Forex traders should watch for any potential crossover, which could signal a shift in momentum and a possible price correction in the AUD/USD pair.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 61.23, which is below the overbought threshold of 70. This suggests that there is still room for upward movement before the AUD-USD reaches overbought conditions. The RSI supports the ongoing bullish trend and indicates that the market is not overly stretched.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the price, indicating a bullish trend. This shift supports the upward movement, with the dots acting as potential support levels. As long as the Parabolic SAR remains below the price, the bullish bias in the AUD USD is likely to continue.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The immediate support is at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, around 0.67100, followed by stronger support near 0.66865, which aligns with the 50% retracement level.
Resistance: The primary resistance is at the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, approximately 0.68345. If the price breaks above this level, the next target could be the upper boundary of the ascending channel.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD pair on the H4 chart shows continued bullish momentum, underpinned by positive price action and supported by the technical indicators like Bollinger Bands, MACD, RSI, and Parabolic SAR. While the trend remains upward, caution is advised due to the tightening Bollinger Bands and the decreasing momentum shown by the MACD histogram. Upcoming economic events and data releases, especially from the US, could introduce volatility and influence price movements. Traders should monitor these developments closely and consider employing risk management strategies to navigate potential market fluctuations.


Disclaimer: This AUDUSD analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information.

FXGlory
08.29.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/CAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.30.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The upcoming economic data releases from both the US and Japan are set to influence the USD/JPY pair's direction prediction. In the US, key indicators such as the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, and Richmond Manufacturing Index will be released. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is expected to show a slight decrease from 6.8% to 6.2%, indicating a cooling in the housing market. Meanwhile, the CB Consumer Confidence index is expected to rise to 100.9 from a previous 100.3, suggesting improved consumer sentiment. The Richmond Manufacturing Index is projected to show an improvement from -17 to -14, which still indicates contraction but at a slower pace. These mixed data points could create a volatile trading environment for the USD.
On the Japanese side, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) y/y is forecasted to slightly decrease from 3.0% to 2.9%, signaling a potential slowdown in price pressures; which stands as an important forecast element for this fore pair. The BOJ Core CPI y/y is expected to remain stable at 2.1%, suggesting persistent inflation concerns within Japan. The stable inflation rate and the recent dovish stance of the Bank of Japan could continue to exert downward pressure on the JPY.

Price Action:
The USD/JPY pair is forming a bearish flag pattern on the H4 chart after a significant bearish wave, which suggests a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price is currently consolidating within this pattern, and a breakout to the downside could accelerate the bearish momentum. However, the presence of bullish technical indicators points to a possible short-term corrective wave.


Key Technical Indicators:
Support Levels: The immediate support is at 1.4881. A break below this level could see the pair testing lower support zones, which may align with historical lows.
Resistance Levels: The immediate resistance is the descending trend line. A successful breakout above this line, confirmed with a close above 1.4932, could indicate a shift to a bullish phase, targeting higher resistance areas.

Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The nearest support is at the lower trendline of the bearish flag pattern, around 144.00. A break below this level could see the pair testing the next support near 142.50, which aligns with previous lows.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the upper trendline of the bearish flag, around 145.00. A break above this level could target the next resistance at 146.50, potentially invalidating the bearish flag pattern and signaling a bullish reversal.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/CAD H4 chart suggests that while the pair is in a bearish trend, technical indicators are showing signs of a potential short-term reversal due to bullish divergence and oversold conditions. Fundamental factors, including weaker-than-expected Eurozone inflation data and slightly weaker Canadian GDP figures, could provide mixed influences on the pair. Traders should closely monitor the price action around the descending trend line for potential breakout opportunities, either to the upside for a buy signal or to the downside below the support level for a sell signal.

Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
08.30.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.03.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing notable fluctuations influenced by a mix of European economic data and US market dynamics. Today's EURUSD calendar includes significant releases like the Real Retail Sales from Germany and the French General Budget Outcome, both pivotal in shaping the Euro's trajectory. Concurrently, the speech by Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is highly anticipated, with potential implications on the Euro's strength depending on the tone and content regarding future monetary policy. Across the Atlantic, the US market awaits the PMI data, which is a critical economic health indicator. Such data can directly impact the USD's strength against a backdrop of global economic uncertainties.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD Price Action has shown a consistent bearish trend on the H4 chart, marked by a descending channel pattern. Recent sessions have recorded a narrow oscillation between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, indicative of bearish momentum with intermittent stability. The last three candles, specifically bearish, reinforce the downtrend, hinting at potential continued bearish pressure if the upper resistance of the channel holds.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The EUR/USD's price movement within the Bollinger Bands displays a bearish trend, as it hovers between the middle and lower bands. The narrowing of the bands slightly suggests a decrease in market volatility and a potential consolidation phase could be nearing.
Parabolic SAR: Indicative dots positioned above the candles signal continued bearish dominance, aligning with the overall downtrend observed in the price channel.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): With an RSI value at 34.28, the market is nearing oversold territory, suggesting a potential slowdown in the bearish momentum or a forthcoming bullish correction.
%R (Williams Percent Range): The %R indicator at -87.38 further corroborates the strong bearish momentum, as it lies close to the extreme end of its range, signaling that the market might be oversold.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest significant support level is observed around 1.09470, which aligns with historical lows and the lower Bollinger Band.
Resistance: Resistance can be found at approximately 1.11095, coinciding with the channel's upper boundary and the middle Bollinger Band.


Conclusion and Considerations:
The EUR/USD pair is currently in a bearish phase, indicated by both price action and key technical indicators within the H4 timeframe. Investors should remain cautious, as the upcoming economic announcements from both Europe and the United States could inject significant volatility and potentially alter the currency pair's direction. Traders are advised to watch for any breakout above the channel resistance or a bounce from support levels as key signals for short-term trading opportunities.


Disclaimer: The EUR/USD H4 analysis is provided as a general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Financial trading involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a professional advisor before making any investment decisions. Changes in market conditions can occur rapidly, requiring constant review and adaptation of strategies.


FXGlory
09.03.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

Silver/USD (XAGUSD) H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.05.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
As of the latest market insights, Silver trading against the US Dollar (XAGUSD) on the H4 timeframe shows nuanced movements ahead of significant economic data releases. Today, US economic indicators such as job cut announcements, ADP employment change, and initial jobless claims could sway the USD strength significantly. Favorable reports are expected to bolster the USD, exerting downward pressure on Silver prices. Conversely, weaker data may enhance Silver's appeal as a hedge, pushing prices upward. Investors and traders should remain vigilant to these updates to gauge potential market directions effectively.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, Silver has been navigating a challenging terrain marked by a descending channel, showcasing a bearish trend that recently attempted a reversal. The Silver USD price action near the middle Bollinger Band indicates a struggle between bears and bulls, with recent candles attempting to break above this resistance. The near-touch of the Fibonacci 50% retracement level suggests a potential shift in momentum if sustained buying pressure continues, pointing to an upcoming test of higher resistance levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Silver price has been predominantly in the lower half of the bands but recently rebounded from the lower band towards the middle. This movement indicates a possible alleviation of the selling pressure, with the current Silver price attempting to breach the middle band—a crucial pivot for further bullish signals.
Parabolic SAR: Recent dots positioned below the candles signify a potential reversal from the prior downtrend. This indicator suggests that the downtrend momentum is losing strength, and a bullish sentiment might be developing, especially as the price approaches the middle Bollinger Band and the Fib 50% level.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): With a reading of 41.93, the RSI indicates that the market is neither oversold nor overbought, leaving room for potential upward movement if buying pressure increases.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains below the signal line, indicating ongoing bearish momentum. However, the decreasing histogram bars may suggest that the bearish momentum is weakening, aligning with the potential shift suggested by other indicators.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: Immediate support is found at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, around $27.322, where previous lows have consolidated.
Resistance Levels: Initial resistance is observed at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, near $28.018. A breach above this could test the 50% level at approximately $28.710, which aligns with the middle Bollinger Band.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The Silver/ XAGUSD market on the H4 chart presents a complex scenario, balancing between bearish trends and emerging bullish signals. The approaching economic data from the US could serve as a catalyst for significant price movements. Traders should monitor these indicators closely, considering both the technical setups and external economic factors influencing market dynamics.


Disclaimer: This Silver USD analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their due diligence and consider their financial position before engaging in trades based on this analysis.


FXGlory
09.05.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.06.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCAD pair remains sensitive to key economic releases from both the U.S. and Canada. On the U.S. side, today’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment data will have a major impact on the U.S. Dollar’s strength. Positive employment data can strengthen the Dollar as it signals economic growth and could lead to further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, any hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams and Christopher Waller, will be closely watched for clues on monetary policy direction. On the Canadian side, the upcoming employment and unemployment data are key drivers for the Canadian Dollar. Better-than-expected employment figures can boost the CAD, indicating stronger economic activity in Canada. These releases will likely bring increased volatility to the USD/CAD forex pair.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, the USD CAD is currently in a bearish trend, trading below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Over the last few sessions, the price has been consolidating between the 1.34827 support and the 1.35562 resistance level. The pair briefly attempted to recover but has since retraced and is now hovering near the lower Bollinger Band. The bearish pressure is strong, though a potential bullish correction could be on the horizon if key support levels hold.


Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The USD-CAD price is in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, indicating bearish pressure. It is trying to move closer to the middle band, signaling a possible consolidation phase. The bands have widened recently, indicating increased volatility, which may precede a breakout in either direction.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have recently flipped above the candles, indicating that the current trend is bearish. Traders should watch for any reversal signals that could emerge if the price moves above key levels.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 45.55, which is below the 50 neutral mark but far from the oversold territory. This suggests that while the bearish momentum is intact, there may still be room for further downside before the market becomes oversold.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is slightly below the zero line, showing weak bearish momentum. The MACD line remains below the signal line, but any potential crossover could indicate the beginning of a bullish correction.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The immediate support is located at 1.34827. A break below this level could open the door for further downside, potentially targeting the next key support at 1.34000.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.35562. If the price manages to break above this level, it could trigger a bullish correction towards the next resistance at 1.36300.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 chart shows a clear bearish bias, with key indicators like the Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, and MACD signaling downward momentum. However, upcoming fundamental data, especially from the U.S. labor market and Canadian employment figures, will likely play a critical role in determining the pair's next move. Traders should remain cautious and monitor support and resistance levels closely, as a break could signal a shift in momentum. Additionally, news from Federal Reserve officials may provide further insight into the USD’s potential strength.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided here is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading Forex involves significant risk, and traders should conduct their own research or consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. Always stay updated on the latest market conditions, as they can change rapidly.


FXGlory
09.06.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.09.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair is currently influenced by key economic releases from both the Eurozone and the United States. From the USD side, the upcoming Wholesale Inventories report from the Census Bureau will be closely watched. A figure lower than forecast could signal inventory depletion and boost future purchasing power, benefiting the USD. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's Consumer Credit data, which reflects consumer spending confidence, could strengthen the USD if it shows an increase, as rising credit often correlates with consumer optimism. For the Euro, the Sentix Investor Confidence index will be critical. A higher-than-expected figure would indicate optimism in the Eurozone, potentially supporting the EUR. However, a negative result could reflect investor pessimism, putting further pressure on the Euro. These data releases will influence market sentiment and are likely to drive volatility in the EUR/USD pair.


Price Action:
The price action on the EUR/USD H4 chart shows a bearish trend, with the pair experiencing significant downward movement since August 23, 2024. After reaching a low around 1.1032, the pair retraced upwards, but the recovery was halted near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1184. The most recent candles indicate renewed bearish momentum as the pair failed to hold above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1108, suggesting that sellers are still in control. The price is currently consolidating around the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1089. A further decline could push the pair back toward the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1067, and a break below this would likely lead to a retest of the recent low at 1.1032. However, if buyers regain control, a push above 1.1108 could lead to a test of the 61.8% level at 1.1184.


Key Technical Indicators:
Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA): The TEMA is indicating a bearish bias, with the price trading below the short-term moving average, signaling continued downward momentum. As the price hovers near key support levels, traders should watch for a potential bounce or further downside acceleration if the price remains below the TEMA.
Volumes: Volume analysis reveals that sellers have dominated recent sessions, as higher volumes were recorded during the downtrend. However, volumes have started to decrease slightly as the price approaches key support levels, suggesting that bearish momentum may be weakening. A resurgence in volume during the next price movement will be crucial in confirming the direction of the next trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is currently below the zero line, confirming the bearish trend. Although the histogram bars are shrinking, indicating waning downward momentum, the MACD line remains below the signal line, suggesting that the market sentiment is still bearish. A bullish crossover of the MACD and signal lines would be needed to signal a potential trend reversal.
%R Indicator (Williams Percent Range): The %R indicator is in the oversold zone, currently around -80.85. This suggests that the market could be nearing a point of exhaustion in the current bearish move. While oversold conditions often precede a reversal, strong trends can keep the %R indicator in this zone for some time, so traders should look for confirmation before taking long positions.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: The first key support level is at 1.1067, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this level could open the door to further downside, targeting the recent low at 1.1032, which has provided significant support in recent sessions. If this level is breached, the next psychological support is at 1.1015, where buyers may attempt to step in to prevent further declines.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 1.1108, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, where the price has previously stalled. A breakout above this level would suggest a possible shift in sentiment, targeting the next resistance at 1.1130. The most significant resistance is at 1.1184, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, where sellers are likely to re-enter the market. A close above this level could signal a potential bullish reversal.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD pair remains in a bearish trend on the H4 chart, supported by key technical indicators such as the TEMA and MACD, despite signals of weakening momentum. The upcoming economic releases, particularly from the U.S. Census Bureau and Federal Reserve, as well as the Sentix Investor Confidence report from the Eurozone, will play a pivotal role in determining the next significant price movement. Traders should watch closely for price action around key support and resistance levels, as a break below 1.1067 would indicate continued bearish pressure, while a move above 1.1108 could signal the start of a bullish recovery.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own analysis and consider their risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. The forex market can be highly volatile, and unexpected news or events may lead to rapid changes in market conditions.


FXGlory
09.09.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPAUD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.10.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Upcoming economic data releases from both the UK and Australia will play a crucial role in predicting the direction of the GBP/AUD pair. Key releases for the GBP currency include Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index 3m/y, and the Unemployment Rate. The Claimant Count Change is expected to show an improvement from 135K to 95.5K, suggesting a slight improvement in the UK labor market. Average Earnings Index 3m/y is forecasted to dip from 4.5% to 4.1%, indicating weaker wage growth. The Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%, which may keep investor confidence intact but limits any significant bullish move in the GBP.
On the Australian side, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment data, along with the NAB Business Confidence report, is expected to provide insights into the current economic outlook. If both data sets show improving confidence, it could strengthen the AUD in the short term.


Price Action:
The GBP/AUD price line has entered a correction phase after a strong bullish wave. Currently, the price is consolidating above the Ichimoku cloud, which suggests that bullish sentiment may remain dominant in the near future. RSI (Relative Strength Index) is not yet in the overbought area, and the stochastic indicator shows that the bearish momentum is nearly exhausted. Traders should keep an eye on the bearish trend line within this correction phase, as a breakout above this area could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI: The RSI is hovering below the overbought level, suggesting more room for upward movement before reaching overextended conditions.
Stochastic: The stochastic oscillator is showing signs of reaching the end of a bearish run, hinting at a potential bullish crossover.
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken above the cloud, which is a bullish signal, and could indicate further upside if the price sustains above this area.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The nearest support is at 1.9500, just above the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. A break below this level could signal further bearish correction toward 1.9450.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the descending trend line formed in the current correction phase. A breakout above 1.9600 could confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, targeting the next resistance around 1.9700.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/AUD H4 chart suggests that while the pair is undergoing a corrective phase, the overall sentiment remains bullish due to the price holding above the Ichimoku cloud. If the price breaks above the current descending trend line during this correction, bulls are likely to take over the market again. Traders should also pay close attention to upcoming GBP and AUD economic data releases, as these can highly influence the pair’s movement in the short term.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.10.2024