Daily Forex Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.24.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD pair is currently influenced by critical economic events. Earlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.35%, which was anticipated by the market, accompanied by the RBA Rate Statement and subsequent Press Conference. These factors are crucial in shaping the Australian dollar's direction against United States’ Dollar. The RBA’s stance was seen as relatively neutral, keeping future rate hikes uncertain. Meanwhile, on the USD side, significant events like the upcoming FOMC member Bowman’s speech and data releases, such as the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y (5.9%, below the expected 6.5%) and the CB Consumer Confidence report, are likely to weigh on the US dollar’s performance. With the U.S. data releases showing mixed results, traders are closely monitoring the market for any clues on future Fed policy moves.


Price Action:
The AUD/USD H4 chart today shows a correction following a bullish rally. The price has now moved lower, testing a key support zone, indicating a consolidation phase. The Bollinger Bands show a sharp decline in volatility, with the price touching the lower band, suggesting the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the pair remains under pressure as both fundamental and technical factors point to a cautious sentiment. If AUD/USD breaks below current support, further downside may be expected, while holding above could see the pair attempt a recovery.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is currently hugging the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a possible oversold condition in the short term. A contraction in the bands suggests lower volatility, signaling that a breakout might be imminent.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is in bearish territory, with the MACD line below the signal line. The histogram is also below zero, supporting the bearish outlook. This indicates a potential for further downside if momentum doesn't shift soon.
DeM (DeMarker Indicator): The DeMarker indicator is currently reading at 0.334, signaling that the pair may be in an oversold condition, which could indicate a short-term bullish reversal if buyers step in at current levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The immediate support is at 1.35000, aligning with a key psychological level. A stronger support level is noted at 1.34610, which coincides with a previous low from earlier sessions.
Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance is at 1.35700, which aligns with the middle of the Bollinger Bands and prior consolidation. The next significant resistance is around 1.36050, which marks the upper boundary of the recent price action.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD technical analysis suggests a cautious outlook as the pair consolidates within the lower Bollinger Band range, signaling potential short-term downside pressure. However, oversold conditions on both the DeM and Bollinger Bands suggest a possible rebound if key support holds. Traders should monitor the MACD for confirmation of continued bearish momentum or potential reversal on AUDUSD price chart. Additionally, economic events like the RBA Press Conference and upcoming U.S. data releases could add volatility to the pair. In this uncertain market environment, prudent risk management is advised, with close attention paid to the 1.35000 support and 1.35700 resistance levels for any breakout signals.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.24.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.26.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD fundamental outlook today is influenced by both the Eurozone's economic factors and the strength of the US dollar. Recently, several key developments in both economies have affected this pair that’s also known as the “Fiber”. The US dollar has seen strength due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials like Governor Adriana Kugler, signaling potential rate hikes. Additionally, economic data from the US, including durable goods orders and jobless claims, have contributed to dollar strength. On the Euro side, consumer sentiment measured by the GfK survey, and remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde have highlighted inflationary pressures, which could push the European Central Bank towards a hawkish stance. With both central banks hinting at potential tightening, the EUR/USD forex pair remains at the mercy of its fundamental economic releases and policy updates in the coming days.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD price action on the pair’s H4 chart reveals a notable bullish trend, with price action testing resistance levels around 1.1184 to 1.1187. After a breakout attempt, the price faced rejection at the top of the rising channel. The pair seems to be consolidating around key support zones, reflecting market indecision as traders await further developments from central banks. The recent price decline suggests that bears have temporarily regained control, but with the price hovering near the lower boundary of the rising channel, further upward movement is possible if key support holds.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading within the cloud, signaling a potential period of consolidation. The lagging span also suggests mixed momentum, with no clear direction yet, as traders await additional catalysts.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 45.64, indicating neutral momentum. It's neither in the oversold nor overbought territory, suggesting that the market may be gearing up for its next significant move depending on economic news or technical breakout opportunities.
MACD: The MACD histogram remains slightly positive, with a minor bullish bias as the MACD line hovers near the signal line. However, momentum appears weak, and a more significant move would be required to confirm directionality.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The immediate support level is 1.1129, which is aligned with the rising trendline. A breach below this level could push the pair towards the 1.1116 zone, which marks the lower boundary of the channel.
Resistance Levels: The pair faces strong resistance at 1.1184 and 1.1187, the latter being a key psychological level. A break above this resistance could set the stage for a bullish continuation towards 1.1230.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD technical analysis on its H4 chart is showing signs of consolidation as it trades near key support levels. With both the Ichimoku cloud and MACD offering mixed signals, traders should wait for a breakout either above resistance at 1.1187 or a breakdown below 1.1129 to determine the next significant directional move. Upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve and ECB officials, as well as economic data, will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on the Fiber’s volatility. Setting appropriate risk management tools, such as stop-losses near key support/resistance zones, will be essential to navigate the EUR-USD market fluctuations.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.26.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.27.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCAD pair reflects the exchange rate between the US Dollar (USD) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Today’s key events impacting this pair include the upcoming speech from Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which could hint at future monetary policy, especially regarding interest rates and the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor force. In addition, traders are waiting for important US inflation data and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ upcoming reports on trade and income. On the Canadian side, attention will be on GDP figures, which offer insights into the country's economic performance. These events could drive significant volatility for USDCAD in the coming sessions.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, USDCAD is showing signs of a potential reversal after a strong bearish move. The price is currently in an upward channel following a drop, indicating a recovery phase. The pair recently found support around 1.3430 and has started to retrace upwards, moving closer to the 1.3470 resistance level. There are multiple signs suggesting a possible breakout if the bullish momentum continues, but traders should be cautious as the pair remains below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling potential further consolidation before a stronger move.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a bearish long-term sentiment. However, the upward trend from recent lows indicates potential bullish recovery, though it remains weak until the price breaks above the cloud.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is slightly below the signal line, and the histogram shows weak bearish momentum. Although there is some upward movement, a clearer bullish signal would emerge only if the MACD line crosses above the signal line, indicating stronger buying pressure.
DeMarker (DeM 14): The DeMarker indicator stands at 0.587, suggesting that the market is approaching an overbought condition. While not fully signaling exhaustion, traders should watch for any overbought conditions that might lead to a temporary pullback.
Williams %R (14): The Williams %R is at -14.71, nearing overbought territory. This suggests that the current upward momentum may face resistance soon, and a retracement could be imminent if the pair fails to break above key resistance levels.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support is at 1.3430, a level where the price recently found a bounce.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at 1.3480, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci level. The next key resistance is at 1.3525, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 chart is showing signs of a possible bullish recovery following a recent drop. However, the pair remains below the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting the longer-term trend is still bearish until confirmed otherwise. The MACD and Williams %R indicators show cautious optimism, but traders should be wary of overbought conditions, especially as the price nears key Fibonacci resistance levels. With upcoming fundamental news from both the US and Canada, volatility is expected. As always, traders should stay informed of breaking news and economic data to avoid unexpected market movements.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided here is for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions may change rapidly, and traders should conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.27.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURGBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.30.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/GBP news analysis today is influenced by various fundamental factors, including economic indicators, interest rates, and geopolitical events impacting both the Eurozone and the UK. As the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) manage their monetary policies, traders closely monitor releases such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from both regions. Recent releases indicate inflationary pressures in the Eurozone, which could prompt the ECB to adopt a more hawkish stance. Conversely, economic growth and inflation data from the UK may provide insights into the BoE's potential interest rate decisions, further impacting the EURGBP forecast today. Overall, these dynamics complicate the pair’s market environment, where traders need to stay alert to macroeconomic changes and their implications for the currency’s valuation.


Price Action:
The EUR/GBP H4 chart shows the price is currently trending below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating the pair’s bearish sentiment. Its price action has shown a consolidation phase following a previous downtrend, suggesting a possible accumulation of positions before a potential breakout. The market is currently oscillating near key support and resistance levels, with the pair’s price movement reflecting indecision among traders.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price trading below the Ichimoku Cloud highlights the pair’s bearish market structure. A breakout above the cloud would be necessary for a trend reversal, while a sustained movement below it suggests ongoing selling pressure.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is positioned at 48.43, indicating that the EURGBP sentiment is neutral with no clear overbought or oversold conditions. This level suggests that there is potential for either a bullish reversal or a continuation of the bearish trend, depending on future price action.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator shows values of 72.15 and 66.96, indicating a potential overbought condition. This could suggest that the price may face resistance at current levels, leading to a correction or pullback if sellers begin to dominate the market.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The nearest support is at 0.83311, with further support located at 0.83205. These levels are critical as they may attract buying interest if the price tests them.
Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance level is at 0.83460. A breakout above this level could signify a shift in momentum, potentially paving the way for higher prices.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/GBP forecast today on its H4 chart is currently exhibiting signs of consolidation after a bearish phase, supported by the positioning of key technical indicators. With the price below the Ichimoku Cloud, traders should be cautious about potential short positions, particularly near key resistance levels. However, the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator suggest a watchful approach, as they indicate neutral to slightly overbought conditions. Upcoming economic releases and ECB/BoE communications will be crucial in determining the pair’s future price movements. Risk management strategies, including stop losses, should be implemented to navigate the volatility inherent in this currency pair.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
09.30.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.01.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/CAD pair is currently influenced by various economic developments. The Canadian Dollar's movement is heavily tied to oil prices, and recent volatility in the oil market has caused fluctuations in the CAD. The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to hold interest rates has also kept the CAD under pressure. Meanwhile, Eurozone data continues to show mixed results, with weaker industrial production in Germany. However, inflationary pressures persist in the Eurozone, adding complexity to the European Central Bank's (ECB) future policy moves. Both these factors are shaping the EUR/CAD's performance this week, with upcoming economic data releases and oil price movements playing a critical role.


Price Action:
The EUR/CAD H4 chart indicates that the pair is trading in a consolidation phase after a recent bullish push. The price action shows a pullback from the 1.5170 resistance level and is currently hovering around the 1.5060 level. The pair is testing the lower boundary of a consolidation range, with key support at 1.4900. Bollinger Bands show decreased volatility, suggesting the potential for a breakout in the near term. Traders should watch for a decisive break either above the resistance at 1.5170 or below the 1.4900 support to determine the next move.


Key Technical Indicators:
William %R: The Williams %R on the EUR/CAD chart is near -56, indicating a neutral state with no strong overbought or oversold signals. A further drop below -80 could indicate oversold conditions, signaling potential buying opportunities.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is in bearish territory, with the MACD line below the signal line. The histogram is also below zero, supporting the bearish outlook. This indicates a potential for further downside if momentum doesn't shift soon.
DeM (DeMarker Indicator): The DeMarker indicator is near 0.45, indicating that the pair is not in an oversold condition but may face continued selling pressure if it breaches key support levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The immediate support is found at 1.4900, a psychological level that has acted as a strong base in previous sessions. Below this, 1.4850 could provide further support.
Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance is at 1.5170, a critical level that the pair has struggled to break. If EUR/CAD manages to close above this level, it could test the next resistance at 1.5270, marking the upper boundary of recent price action.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/CAD analysis suggests a cautious approach as the pair continues to consolidate near key support. Fundamental factors such as Canadian oil price movements and Eurozone inflation will play a significant role in shaping the direction of the pair. While technical indicators like the MACD and Bollinger Bands suggest the possibility of a breakout, traders should wait for confirmation before entering new positions. Prudent risk management is advised, with close attention to the 1.4900 support and 1.5170 resistance levels for potential breakout signals.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
10.01.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.02.2024



Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD forex pair, also known as “Fiber,” reflects the relative strength of the Eurozone and US economies. Currently, the market is focused on macroeconomic data such as employment figures, inflation rates, and central bank policies. Upcoming releases, such as France’s government budget balance and unemployment data across key European economies, are critical for Euro traders. On the US side, employment data (ADP) and Federal Reserve speeches will significantly impact the US Dollar’s performance. Any stronger-than-expected ADP job growth or hawkish Fed commentary could strengthen the USD, putting further pressure on the EUR/USD forecast today.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 chart has been in a downtrend within a descending channel. The pair’s price action has been unable to breach the 1.1153 resistance level and is now testing support around 1.1068. The continuation of lower highs and lower lows within the channel indicates the Fiber’s strong bearish momentum, with no immediate signs of reversal. The price is hovering near the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting potential further downside movement if the support level breaks.


Key Technical Indicators:

RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is currently at 36.73, indicating the pair is approaching oversold conditions. While this suggests bearish momentum, it also implies that a relief rally could be on the horizon, especially if the RSI dips below 30.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD histogram is negative, with the MACD line below the signal line, reinforcing the pair’s bearish outlook. The increasing distance between the two lines suggests that bearish momentum is still strong, with no immediate signs of reversal.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:
Immediate support is seen at 1.1068, followed by stronger support at 1.1005, which could act as a critical level if the bearish trend continues.
Resistance Levels:
The nearest resistance stands at 1.1153, with the next significant resistance level around 1.1200 if the price manages to reverse the current downtrend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD technical analysis today is displaying its strong bearish signals on the H4 timeframe, with both MACD and RSI indicators supporting the downward momentum. However, with the RSI nearing oversold conditions, a short-term pullback could be expected, but the overall EURUSD outlook remains bearish unless key resistance levels are breached. Traders should watch upcoming US employment data and Federal Reserve speeches for further direction. Risk management is crucial, especially given the volatile nature of the pair.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
10.02.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.03.2024



Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The NZD/USD forex pair, also known as “Kiwi,” is often influenced by commodity prices and global risk sentiment, and continues to be impacted by macroeconomic data from both New Zealand and the U.S. Today, traders are watching upcoming U.S. reports, including jobless claims and the job cut announcements, which will provide insight into the U.S. labor market's health. Stronger-than-expected data could bolster the U.S. dollar, as it reflects an improving economy and increases the likelihood of further tightening by the Federal Reserve. On the New Zealand side, global commodity prices, particularly those of agricultural goods and dairy products, remain a key driver for the NZD. With the latest ANZ Commodity Price Index on the horizon, any significant changes in global prices could have a direct impact on the Kiwi’s forecast today.


Price Action:

The NZD/USD H4 chart shows a clear downtrend, with the pair moving within a descending channel. The pair’s price has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment. The pair recently broke below a key support level of 0.6296, which has now turned into resistance. Current NZDUSD price action suggests that bearish momentum may continue unless a clear reversal signal appears.


Key Technical Indicators:

RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is currently at 35.99, which indicates that the pair is approaching oversold conditions. However, there is still room for further downside before the RSI reaches extreme levels, suggesting that the pair’s bearish momentum could persist in the short term.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic oscillator is at 16.69, deep in the oversold zone. This suggests that while the pair remains under selling pressure, a potential bullish reversal could be on the horizon if buyers step in at these levels.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD is in negative territory, with the histogram showing increased downward pressure. The MACD line is below the signal line, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:
The nearest support level is at 0.6230, which aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel. If this level breaks, further downside toward 0.6175 could be expected.
Resistance Levels:
The immediate resistance is now at 0.6296. A break above this level would indicate a shift in sentiment and could signal the start of a bullish correction.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD/USD technical analysis today shows the pair remains in a strong downtrend on the H4 timeframe, with key technical indicators pointing to its continued bearish pressure. The RSI and Stochastic oscillator both suggest the pair is nearing oversold conditions, hinting at a possible short-term reversal. However, as long as the price remains below the resistance level of 0.6296, the bearish momentum is likely to continue. Traders should watch for upcoming U.S. data releases, as stronger-than-expected numbers could further strengthen the U.S. dollar, putting additional pressure on the Kiwi. Risk management is crucial in this volatile environment, and traders should consider setting stop losses near key support and resistance levels.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
10.03.2024

[FXGlory Ltd]

BTC/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.04.2024


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTCUSD forex pair reflects the exchange rate between Bitcoin (BTC) and the US Dollar (USD), a crucial instrument for cryptocurrency traders. Today’s market is poised for volatility due to significant economic releases in the US, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the Unemployment Rate. These reports are essential indicators of economic strength, and a higher-than-expected NFP figure or lower unemployment rate may support the USD, leading to downward pressure on BTC/USD. Additionally, remarks from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams are anticipated, with any hawkish tone likely strengthening the USD. As labor inflation data is released, it could also contribute to volatility in the cryptocurrency market, as USD strength generally puts downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.


Price Action:
Looking at the BTC USD H4 chart, the price has been in a consistent downtrend after failing to maintain its bullish momentum from earlier weeks. The pair is currently trading below the Ichimoku cloud, a clear indication of bearish dominance. A descending trendline is capping any attempts for recovery, further confirming the bearish outlook. Price has been consolidating just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $60,050, indicating a potential battle between buyers and sellers. If the price remains below this key support, the bears may push it lower, toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $58,483.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is currently below the Ichimoku cloud, which indicates bearish market conditions. The cloud itself is red and growing, suggesting that bearish momentum is likely to continue in the short term. The lagging span and future cloud are both below price action, adding to the negative outlook.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum, with the MACD line well below the signal line. The histogram is negative, and while it is contracting slightly, there’s no indication of a bullish crossover soon. This reinforces the bearish trend and suggests continued downward pressure.
%R Indicator (Williams %R): The %R is currently around the -70 mark, indicating that the market is in bearish territory but not yet oversold. This suggests that there is still room for the price to decline further before a potential reversal or consolidation.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is located at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $60,050. If this level breaks, the next significant support lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $58,483. A failure to hold this could see the pair dropping towards $56,000.
Resistance Levels: On the upside, resistance is found at the descending trendline around $61,800. Above this, the next major resistance is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $61,897, coinciding with the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.


Conclusion and Consideration: The BTC/USD H4 chart indicates a bearish bias in the market, with price trading below key technical levels, including the Ichimoku cloud and major Fibonacci retracement points. Bearish momentum appears strong, as confirmed by the MACD and %R indicators. However, any upside surprise in today’s US economic releases, particularly the NFP or unemployment figures, could add further downside pressure on Bitcoin. Traders should remain cautious as the market could see heightened volatility due to these upcoming fundamental drivers. The key support at $60,050 will be critical to watch, as a break below could signal deeper corrections toward $58,483.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
10.04.2024