BTC created new ATH before Halving: are you surprised?

[Vincom]

BTC reached a new ATH of 69,170.63 USD today, marking a significant moment in its history. This is a surprising development, as BTC has traditionally never reached a new ATH before the halving event.

BTC halving is an event built into Bitcoin's code that cuts the reward for mining new BTC in half, roughly every four years. This happens because the halving is triggered at a specific number of mined blocks (around 210,000)^[1], and with an average block creation time of 10 minutes, it works out to roughly four years between halvings.

In simpler terms, Halving reduces miners' income, causing the minimum BTC mining cost to roughly double. This means that for miners to maintain their pre-halving income, the BTC price would also need to roughly double. This is considered one of the driving forces behind the historical price increases of BTC observed after each Halving event^[2]. It may contribute to the roughly 4-year cycle observed in both BTC and the broader crypto market, similar to some traditional markets. I believe this cyclical pattern might have been part of Satoshi's calculation when creating Bitcoin.

I believe that BTC history can be segmented into distinct periods. The first period, spanning from its genesis block mined on January 3rd, 2009^[3], to the third halving event on May 11th, 2020, exhibits unique characteristics:

• Singular ATH: a period witnessed a single, prominent ATH, suggesting a distinct price discovery phase.
• Bounded Bear Markets: Subsequent bear markets never dipped lower than the prior cycle's peak, potentially indicating a rising price floor.
• Pre-Halving Stagnation: New ATHs consistently emerged after halving events, suggesting a price increase pattern tied to block reward reduction.
• Fib retracement at Halving: The BTC price at each halving appears to gravitate towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding downtrend.

Due to the consistent properties mentioned earlier, predicting the first stage is generally straightforward.

The second stage, however, presents a more intricate picture. While it may have begun around May 11th, 2020, coinciding with Halving 3, there are some key deviations from the previous cycle:

• Double-peaked ATH: ATH took the form of a double peak, occurring in both April and November of 2021.
• Deeper crypto winter: The current crypto winter's bottom point sits lower than the prior cycle's peak, reaching 15.5K USD in November 2022 compared to 19.8K USD in December 2017.
• Early new ATH: Notably, a new ATH emerged today, before the Halving 4.
• Uncertain Halving price: The BTC price at the time of this halving remains undetermined, with the possibility of exceeding the previous cycle's ATH.

While I'm impressed by BTC's new ATH, as a non-technical investor, I'm cautious about this deviation from historical cycles. In 2021, I successfully timed the market by selling in November-December based on cyclical patterns. This time, however, the uncertainty is higher. The next peak for BTC could be in November 2025, but an earlier ATH in 2024 followed by a crypto winter in 2025 is also a possibility. Predicting this accurately is difficult, and more data is needed for a clearer picture.

I want to know your views on BTC reaching a new ATH before the Halving:

• Are you surprised by this event?
• Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
• Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

References:
[1] What Is Bitcoin Halving? Definition, How It Works, Why It Matters
[2] Bitcoin Halving 2024: How It Works and Why It Matters
[3] How and when did Bitcoin start? The complete Bitcoin history

[coolcoinz]

Bounded Bear Markets: Subsequent bear markets never dipped lower than the prior cycle's peak, potentially indicating a rising price floor.

2017-18 peak - 20k
Bear market lows <16k.

How is that not dipping lower?

I am surprised by the pump, but maybe the cycles are changing. There's too many first times all of a sudden.
We had a covid black swan event in 2020, for the first time.
We had a very weak bull marker with only 3.5x raise from the all time high, for the first time.
And finally, the long and deep bear market that took us below all time highs and far below the 200 week MA.

Maybe this bull market is just an indicator of a shift? Or maybe this is a double peak that's coming, like in 2013?

[Faisal2202]

Are you surprised by this event?

Yes, I was surprised by this event but not when it made a new ATH, as when BTC made $62k I then realized BTC would definitely cross the previous ATH. Now I am wondering what will happen to the BTC price after the halving event. I hope it will be a surprising event as well. I assume BTC will easily cross $100k and many say it has the potential to cross $150k. And just because of this event, I am bullish.

Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?

Yes, I think this signals a new stage in BTC history, as this never happened before so I think this will be a monumental event for BTC. As I said before BTC will outperform our expectations once again. I hope things will not go sideways, if they go, then those who are bullish on it will lose more, while bear will earn a hell lot of money.

Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

No, that's because nothing has changed, besides ATH, and that's due to the ETF, and in pas ETF has never been approved, and there has been no such level of hype, that's why BTC made a new ATH. And after halving as according to cyclical nature of BTC, it will make new ATH.

[franky1]

when people notice a previous pattern. and to many do.. they all start pre planning that pattern and thus end up breaking the pattern

also the ETF changed the paradigm too, although now the market is reacting by bringing the price down to not cause too much breakage from the pattern

oh and the top price was actually a little higher than $69k in 2021, but the average of exchanges just classed it as a 2021 rounded number of $69k
so its not a complete break of the pattern

[un_rank]

I want to know your views on BTC reaching a new ATH before the Halving:

• Are you surprised by this event?
• Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
• Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

Now, not so much surprised, the price has been leaning towards going above the ATH for weeks now. But in general it comes as another shock that this cycle has come with.

A lot of events before now has signalled that Bitcoin is getting into a new phase and now more than before, past events can deviate from future actions. What we don't know is how much deviation to expect.

Not worried. Change is constant.

- Jay -

[odolvlobo]

In simpler terms, Halving reduces miners' income, causing the minimum BTC mining cost to roughly double. This means that for miners to maintain their pre-halving income, the BTC price would also need to roughly double. This is considered one of the driving forces behind the historical price increases of BTC ...

That's a common misconception based on Marx's Labor Theory of Value, which has been mostly rejected by modern economists.

Anyway, the fact that the bull run to an ATH has started long before the halving in every case strongly indicates that it is unrelated to the halving process.

[thecodebear]

About a year ago I figured it could very well hit the ATH, or at least come close to it, like getting back to $60k, by the time of the halving. But then as of this Fall when it was still only in the mid-to-high $30,000s I figured it'd take until the summer to break the ATH.

Then the ETFs got approved and TradFi started nonstop piling into Bitcoin, and here we are with the ATH taken down suddenly with a month and a half before the halving. Been a pretty great last 14 months for Bitcoin from $16k to $69k!

[hd49728]

About a year ago I figured it could very well hit the ATH, or at least come close to it, like getting back to $60k, by the time of the halving. But then as of this Fall when it was still only in the mid-to-high $30,000s I figured it'd take until the summer to break the ATH.

Then the ETFs got approved and TradFi started nonstop piling into Bitcoin, and here we are with the ATH taken down suddenly with a month and a half before the halving. Been a pretty great last 14 months for Bitcoin from $16k to $69k!

Bitcoin made me surprised by rising and rising before and after Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals but the new all time high is not too convincing. Bitcoin just has its correction immediately after hitting that price.

I really waited for a correction of Bitcoin and finally it comes, but honestly I expect it to happen sooner than today, start at lower price.

Unfortunately, with a correction after making a new all time high, it looks not good as price returns to only below $60,000. Assume the price in OP is a new all time high, on Binance I see it hits only $69,000.

[SamReomo]

• Are you surprised by this event?

No, I'm not surprised because I was sure enough that BTC reaches a new ATH in March to May after seeing the buying pressure that the Bitcoin had due to those ETFs. It's just the beginning, we may see price correction but after that I'm quite sure we will see another such rally. Previously, I was thinking that Bitcoin would cross $100k when bull run gets intensity but now I think that Bitcoin could possibly reach $120k or even cross it when bull run reaches its full intensity. A new ATH before the bear run starts would be anywhere from $120k to $140k or even more than that.

[Hamza2424]

Are you surprised by this event?

Yes, I was surprised by this event but not when it made a new ATH, as when BTC made $62k, I realized BTC would definitely cross the previous ATH. Now I am wondering what will happen to the BTC price after the halving event. I hope it will be a surprising event as well. I assume BTC will easily cross $100k and many say it has the potential to cross $150k. And just because of this event, I am bullish. 

Hmm, Surprising that you are bullish dude haha because it's a new ATH already and you are expressing your Bullish turn now hehe, Anyway it's totally up to you that you make your market moves. ATH's are always surprising and 150k is not a big deal according to the current momentum I'm expecting a great rise again after May reason some deadlines. At the same time, there's still time to go beyond the 100k, and by the end of 2024 100k will be a little surprising because I'm expecting an 80k to 90k potential gain by the end of the year, At the same time 2025 might bring the optimistic target of 150k+.

Who knows what's gonna happen, still these are some of my instincts.

[Nwada001]

oh and the top price was actually a little higher than $69k in 2021, but the average of exchanges just classed it as a 2021 rounded number of $69k
so its not a complete break of the pattern

This is absolutely correct, just like the 24-hour price pump of $69,000, which captured most exchanges and was recorded on the coin tracker. 
 
Some exchanges picked the price at $69,100 and above, which was the ATH before it started dropping back right now, which I believe is part of the price correction. 
 
But while removing some part of the price that has already been recorded, Are the figures not compatible enough for them to record them on the exchange, or is something restricting them from doing that?

[icalical]

Not much of a surprise I think, and halving could be just one of many factors, the ETF I guess also impacting the market, and more world leader seems like supporting Bitcoin. The thing is the difference of this new ATH and the previous ATH is not that much, and it now Bitcoin price already got some correction. This could be bad, and with very little different of that current and previous ATH I think the resistance will be quite strong for the price to break the new ATH.

[EL MOHA]

Anyway, the fact that the bull run to an ATH has started long before the halving in every case strongly indicates that it is unrelated to the halving process.

I would say it is still related to the halving period. Yes most of this pumping is associated to the ETF approved which had many investors to bag more bitcoin but decision also was shaped by the upcoming halving, most of the traders will have actually invested because they think that with bitcoin halving coming and an almost guaranteed bull run after it, they will think Lowest they can get bitcoin will be before the halving and That’s probably why they choose to invest early.

Another reason could be associated with the fact that there more adopted people currently on bitcoin and the awareness of bull run and other bitcoin events have spread more than In the past and as such many have taken a position already, which is different to former halving events.

[batang_bitcoin]

Are you surprised by this event?

Somehow but when the ETFs were approved, that's the signal of it.

Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?

Yep, reaching the ATH even before the halving.

Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

Why would I? This is like a normal thing when there are good news prior to the halving but not a halving focused demand. Maybe it's hard to get it but the pump that we get doesn't have to do with the halving and obviously came from the ETFs.

[Zigabel]

In as much as I expected something like this ro happen, I didn't expect it will be in thia magnitude because the ATH had appeared too far away from the price is was as at a month or two ago, currently it's more like Bitcoin did 100% it's price within two months, from $37k to $69k, I think this is been caused by the effects of the recent happenings around Bitcoin which is triggering all this market effects because this year, so far Bitcoin seems to have received more adoption than it has ever received in previous years, it has as well received more adoption by some othe countries and others still thinking of further adoption aswell.

There's definitely going to be a correction before the halving because if it has been able to guy the ATH before the halving it means there was a trigger and it's definitely going to be corrected and Bitcoin will get back to its price that will birth the bull market after the halving.

[franky1]

oh and the top price was actually a little higher than $69k in 2021, but the average of exchanges just classed it as a 2021 rounded number of $69k
so its not a complete break of the pattern

This is absolutely correct, just like the 24-hour price pump of $69,000, which captured most exchanges and was recorded on the coin tracker.
 
Some exchanges picked the price at $69,100 and above, which was the ATH before it started dropping back right now, which I believe is part of the price correction.
 
But while removing some part of the price that has already been recorded, Are the figures not compatible enough for them to record them on the exchange, or is something restricting them from doing that?

not all exchanges all hit the ATH, nor at same moment.
couple years a go one exchange did hit above $69k whilst majority hung around the ~$68.5k average

so although then and now had a final top bidder above $69k most of people round down/up given enough time, reason, excuses

it dont matter what one exchange records. as exchanges have always recorded their own prices both now and before.. its more of the social sentiment plus passage of time, of what people end up rounding things to and that becomes the narrative.

EG
did you know after the 2013 ATH, the correction actually went below $100 due to MTGox closed deals. yet if you check any of the "historic" price charts the social sentiment that designed the charts ignores the depths MTGox landed at on its closing, (meaning they excluded the lows MTGox recorded)

same went for the 2021 high. some went above $69k but on average of multiple exchanges of $68.5k most just say $68500 for social sentiment
and given time, some will round todays top too

[ObscurePen]

Usually the price pumps before a halving event. This time with the increased demand from ETFs it makes sense that Bitcoin has a pretty big bull run.
In general, most people are not educated enough about the halving event. But the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the Bitcoin halving are buzz words that drove the price up earlier in the week.
Over time however, your graph shows how the bull run of each halving event is reducing in multiplier.

[GreatArkansas]

I don't understand why there are some people who voted for "I'm really surprised because this has never happened in history"
Because this is not the first time in history we have experienced this, where we experienced a massive pump before the Bitcoin block halved.

[hd49728]

I don't understand why there are some people who voted for "I'm really surprised because this has never happened in history"
Because this is not the first time in history we have experienced this, where we experienced a massive pump before the Bitcoin block halved.

Before the halving, Bitcoin historically has big price volatility, pumps and crashes. We just have about 15% correction before a halving that is needed for the market to reset.

Gamblers with overzealous leverages must be washed out of the market, to clean the market, and it is a necessary preparation for a halving and big parabolic bull run after that. I am optimistic to see the correction finally happened because the market will be more easily pumped from here.

did you know after the 2013 ATH, the correction actually went below $100 due to MTGox closed deals. yet if you check any of the "historic" price charts the social sentiment that designed the charts ignores the depths MTGox landed at on its closing, (meaning they excluded the lows MTGox recorded)

Market now is bigger than in 2013 and price on site like Coinmarketcap, Coingecko is averaged price and they have own formulas for price calculation.

same went for the 2021 high. some went above $69k but on average of multiple exchanges of $68.5k most just say $68500 for social sentiment
and given time, some will round todays top too

Because it is the average number, it is not important to say what is a highest price of Bitcoin. ATH needs to be much higher than 2021 all time high and it means nothing if a new all time high is only $50 or $100 or $200 higher than 2021 ATH.

It can play roles for psychology of market participants but the bull run is only started. Higher highs will be seen soon in coming months of 2024 and 2025.

[Poker Player]

I am a little surprised, because after how disappointing this cycle has been I didn't expect the price to be so high now. However, the fact that the ATH has been minimally beaten does not mean anything to me, because until it is clearly beaten I do not consider it beaten. If we take inflation into account, in real terms it would not have been beaten.

It will surely take a few more attempts to clearly pass the $70K barrier, which is when I will consider the previous ATH actually beaten.