Bitcoin price history, ATHs and bottoms.

[tranthidung]

In finance and TradFi (Traditional Finance), we have saying like "This time will be different". That is true and untrue.

True by nothing in life will repeat itself 100% accurately.
Untrue by there are always things to be different, just in small or big scale.

Let's see Bitcoin Price History with past bottoms and ATHs. You can do your own calculation with data from Coinmarketcap and run your own sheet or can simply look at this source.

Details are in the graphical chart so I don't type it here. Let me know what you feel most meaningful for you and your future investment in Bitcoin?

For me, it is % dip from ATHs, that are -93%, -85%, -84% and -77%.
Note:

• I did not compare information in the chart with my calculation as I only made a first one for price change from $32 to $1242, it is 38x, not 32x, so probably there are some minor inaccuracies but let's skip them and see an overview picture.

[1714532665]

1714532665

[1714532665]

1714532665

[1714532665]

1714532665

[Husires]

Yes, the charts do not match, but the patterns are similar. In the previous cycle, the price broke the previous ATH barrier, which is was 20k, and it decreased blown that,  in this cycle and before halving ATH was broken, which indicates because New ATH may seem different from the previous or we may see prices above 200k that will make -93%, -85%, -84% and -77% corrections above 60k by the end of 2026.

[HideYourKeys]

My guess is that we might not see such huge corrections in this cycle, we will see

[mk4]

I'm going to bet that once bitcoin goes low enough that would make that chart look screwed(even just a bit remotely different), people would be mass selling BTC — only to see it bounce (as per usual) after a good while lmao. People tend to take huge bets off a single chart or a single metric.

[PrivacyG]

I'm going to bet that once bitcoin goes low enough that would make that chart look screwed(even just a bit remotely different), people would be mass selling BTC — only to see it bounce (as per usual) after a good while lmao. People tend to take huge bets off a single chart or a single metric.

True.

But I would also bet that we would all feel uncertainty in such a case.  Even if I love Bitcoin this much and know it will most likely never die off or fall off a cliff with no more recovery ever, I would feel uncertain watching the graph make crazy moves.  It would throw almost the entire community into temporary F U D pretty much.

[thecodebear]

Yeah and that 77% drop was only because Luna collapsed and then caused a string of other collapses. Drop might have only been like 55%-60% or so if not for that. When Luna collapsed the bottom so far had only been 55% down which was several months prior and the market at the time was only like 45% down.

If the industry can avoid some large ecosystem collapse like Mt Gox in 2014 or Luna + Crypto Lending industry + FTX in 2022, I think the bear market bottom will only be 50%-60% down, maybe even slightly less of a drop than that. So if peak is say $150k, maybe it bottoms at $60k-$80k, and probably only takes like 6 months to bottom instead of 12+ months. That'd be my guess.

If this bottom is much shallower, that'll lead to even shallower bear markets in the future too. Because some people try to time the market, sell in bull and buy back during bear. But given paying taxes on profits, and having to guess where the top and bottom will be and very likely not hitting real close to either, if the difference between top and bottom are no longer extreme like 70-80%, it makes muuuuuch less sense to try to trade the market cycle. So even a bit shallower bear markets should lead to more long term holding, which leads to even shallower bear markets. It wouldn't surprise me if by next decade these extreme swing market cycles are largely gone. Especially since the halvings themselves are already much less significant since well over 90% of the supply is already out. Also the ETFs may possibly help blunt bear markets as well since all sorts of funds are going to be adding the bitcoin ETFs and so people are going to be buying the ETFs indirectly through lots of other Wall St funds regardless of whether bitcoin is in bull mode or bear mode.

[ImThour]

Yeah and that 77% drop was only because Luna collapsed and then caused a string of other collapses. Drop might have only been like 55%-60% or so if not for that.

Not really, $16k Price had to happen before we go $170k the next year. It was a long support trendline on a weekly timeframe which I was able to spot early.


Here is a screenshot of my chart and the idea which I posted on TradingView in April of 2022. It was clear to me that by the end of year (2022) Bitcoin will touch the support trendline.
You can see for yourself. Everything happens for a reason. Price Action > Any Crypto Incident/Event.

[Husires]

My guess is that we might not see such huge corrections in this cycle, we will see

I think that breaking ATH before halving is a response to a 20K break in the previous down side of that cycle, and if this happens, we will be between 60k to 70k for the next four months.

Yeah and that 77% drop was only because Luna collapsed and then caused a string of other collapses. Drop might have only been like 55%-60% or so if not for that. When Luna collapsed the bottom so far had only been 55% down which was several months prior and the market at the time was only like 45% down.

I think the opposite is what happened, as the chaos caused by FTX and Luna was the reason that the upward trend was broken and that ATH was 69k instead of ~80k ~100k, which gives a correction by 93%, -85%, -84% to ~20k

[thecodebear]

Yeah and that 77% drop was only because Luna collapsed and then caused a string of other collapses. Drop might have only been like 55%-60% or so if not for that.

Not really, $16k Price had to happen before we go $170k the next year. It was a long support trendline on a weekly timeframe which I was able to spot early.


Here is a screenshot of my chart and the idea which I posted on TradingView in April of 2022. It was clear to me that by the end of year (2022) Bitcoin will touch the support trendline.
You can see for yourself. Everything happens for a reason. Price Action > Any Crypto Incident/Event.

haha there is nothing that "had to happen". There are things that happened. If what you just said is true then it literally wouldn't matter what happens because the chart would just automatically follow a line. Obviously that is not real life. You are saying that a bunch of collapses in the crypto ecosystem had zero effect on the market. Obviously your idea is wrong. I really hope you don't think markets simply automatically follow lines on a chart, because anyone can draw any sort of line lol

[thecodebear]

Yeah and that 77% drop was only because Luna collapsed and then caused a string of other collapses. Drop might have only been like 55%-60% or so if not for that. When Luna collapsed the bottom so far had only been 55% down which was several months prior and the market at the time was only like 45% down.

I think the opposite is what happened, as the chaos caused by FTX and Luna was the reason that the upward trend was broken and that ATH was 69k instead of ~80k ~100k, which gives a correction by 93%, -85%, -84% to ~20k

Huh??

Are you living a life where time goes backwards??? haha

Those things happened during the bear market, many months after the ATH. ATH was in 2021. Luna, crypto lenders, FTX were from Spring 2022 to Fall 2022. Bear market was already 6 months in by the time that stuff started happening. But I like the absurdist science fiction approach haha, where events in the future causes results in the past. It'd be funny to write a history book like that trying to explain past events based on future events.  Like, because fiat money collapses later in the 21st century that's WHY Satoshi created Bitcoin, because he lives in an opposite time flow from the rest of the universe and so experiences time backwards, and he brought future computer science ideas to create Bitcoin in the past to give humanity an escape from the fiat monetary collapse he had already experienced in the future. I kinda love it haha

[DanWalker]

My guess is that we might not see such huge corrections in this cycle, we will see

I have the opposite thought, the stronger bitcoin increases, the stronger it falls. Many believe that as bitcoin ETFs are approved and regulations emerge, bitcoin will become more stable and less volatile. But since the ETF was approved, bitcoin's volatility has not decreased and has sometimes become stronger. I remember a few days ago when bitcoin crossed its old ATH and touched 70k4$, but then within a short period of time bitcoin dropped to 59k$ and then fluctuated around the 66k-68k$ area. Bitcoin has fluctuated more than 10 thousand dollars in less than an hour, how can it be said that bitcoin is gradually stabilizing?

[hatshepsut93]

For me, it is % dip from ATHs, that are -93%, -85%, -84% and -77%.

Interesting thing to note that during the latest bear market the price went below the level of the ATH of the previous cycle when in dipped below $20k. This happened for the first time and it could be interpreted as a dangerous signal, but now we have reaching ATH level before the halvening, which also happened for the first time and is a positive signal.

The moral here is that Bitcoin is still quite unpredictable and its patterns are broken all the time.

[tranthidung]

Interesting thing to note that during the latest bear market the price went below the level of the ATH of the previous cycle when in dipped below $20k. This happened for the first time and it could be interpreted as a dangerous signal, but now we have reaching ATH level before the halvening, which also happened for the first time and is a positive signal.

In latest years, 2022 and 2024, we witness something never happened before in Bitcoin history. In a bear market in 2022, it drops to below a previous all time high and in 2024, even before the halving, it has a first time ever to make its new all time high.

In history of Bitcoin, it only makes new all time high after its halving and even several months after a halving. We are witnessing something strange but interesting this year with Bitcoin fourth halving.

The moral here is that Bitcoin is still quite unpredictable and its patterns are broken all the time.

It's unpredictable. Very few people expected / predicted Bitcoin will drop below $20,000 in 2022 and make a new all time high in early 2024.

[kryptqnick]

I'll start by saying that I think a logarithmic scale is less honest and less informative than a linear scale, so the chart the op shared is not the kind of chart I'd use when thinking about the price.
But I agree that Bitcoin is losing less value over time during the bear markets. Another thing I like to look at is the growth of the bottom price. For instance, after $1.1k in 2013, the bottom was $172; after $20k in 2017, the bottom was $3200; while after $67k it was over $15k. We can see how much the bottom is getting higher after each bull market, which shows more confidence in Bitcoin even during its worst times.

[Lucius]

~snip~
In history of Bitcoin, it only makes new all time high after its halving and even several months after a halving. We are witnessing something strange but interesting this year with Bitcoin fourth halving.

It is not surprising that we have such a bull run considering that the SEC finally approved spot ETFs after a year of rejection, and when BlackRock entered the game, it was a sign that things would change. All those who knew how powerful that company was already then had a clear sign that they should start buying BTC, and today we see that they were right.

Even if there is no halving this year, I believe that we would have the same effect on the price, but I also believe that nothing happens without a reason, and that this year was chosen for the perfect combination of favorable events that will result in a significant increase in the price of BTC, and accordingly to that the huge profits that investors and companies will make.

It's unpredictable. Very few people expected / predicted Bitcoin will drop below $20,000 in 2022 and make a new all time high in early 2024.

Who could have known that a scammer named Do Kwon would appear almost at the same time as the incompetent Bankman and that together they would cause damage that was measured over $100 billion? Without those two, my personal opinion is that the price of BTC would have stayed at around $30 000.

[tranthidung]

It is not surprising that we have such a bull run considering that the SEC finally approved spot ETFs after a year of rejection, and when BlackRock entered the game, it was a sign that things would change. All those who knew how powerful that company was already then had a clear sign that they should start buying BTC, and today we see that they were right.

I know Black Rock and Bitcoin Spot ETF success mean a lot for Bitcoin market but things are happening actually unpredictable too. It is too fast if we see after Gold Spot ETFs, it takes many months to start rising in price. Bitcoin is different, better than gold, and moves up faster than gold.

Who could have known that a scammer named Do Kwon would appear almost at the same time as the incompetent Bankman and that together they would cause damage that was measured over $100 billion? Without those two, my personal opinion is that the price of BTC would have stayed at around $30 000.

I agree for sure.

Two black swan events in 2022 caused the price fell down a lot like described above. Without these black swan events, Bitcoin would have not fallen below $20,000.

By the way, let me share one more graphics from CryptoQuant, that can be helpful for newbies who will surely be fearful with corrections along a bull run.

The All time Average Drawdown in bull markets is -15%.

[Lucius]

I know Black Rock and Bitcoin Spot ETF success mean a lot for Bitcoin market but things are happening actually unpredictable too. It is too fast if we see after Gold Spot ETFs, it takes many months to start rising in price. Bitcoin is different, better than gold, and moves up faster than gold.

There was a question as to whether investors would show great interest in this way of investing in Bitcoin, and now it is unquestionable that they have firmly bitten the hook and are not letting go. BlackRock as an intermediary obviously instills great confidence in Bitcoin, and the difference between gold and Bitcoin is incomparable - because there is gold in undetermined quantities, and Bitcoin is very limited compared to how huge the market is.

A few years ago, someone compared the number of millionaires with the number of BTC (then there were only 46 million) and concluded that if each of them wanted only 1 BTC, it would not be enough for everyone.

The All time Average Drawdown in bull markets is -15%.

That is interesting information, and it will be even more interesting to see if we will have similar corrections in this bull run.

[kentrolla]

That's relatable to my thoughts as this time I don't see the pattern repeating because we have had BTC ATH before the halving which was not the case in previous halving cycles. This year looks bit different but we cannot rule out correction phase as some of us are saying there won't be corrections or very little correction but we cannot rule anything on that as only time will tell us about it.

[bbc.reporter]

I reckon presently that when the bearish people have been declaring that they are bullish and some of them declaring that they were bullish before everyone began to be bullish, we should certainly begin to be careful. There will be strange things that will start happening where everything will begin speculating more and buy on leverage more. These late pumpers will be the exit liquidity of the whales.

Also, other strange occurrences will be similar to this. If someone pays to play Michael Sailor Moon's there is no second best speech in the Las Vegas sphere, this might be the peak of bitcoin heheheh.



If the community around Solana memecoin dogwifhat ( WIF +2.50% ) gets its way, a picture of a Shiba Inu in a hat will soon grace the Las Vegas skyline for a week.

That's because a new initiative, unsurprisingly titled "sphere wif hat," seeks to raise $650,000 for one week of advertising the memecoin on Sphere, Las Vegas's recently-launched LED-outfitted spherical event venue.

Source https://www.theblock.co/post/281521/sphere-wif-hat-dogwifhat-holders-set-sights-on-vegas-ad-raise-240000

[adaseb]

Yeah right now we are on a similar path as those in the past during the halving period. Generally we go up exponentially and this time we've been rallying before the halving which is fairly new, especially since we broke the ATH. Halving will be most likely on April 20 or around that day.

Currenly we got tons of money entering crypto. We had $2B in tether print yesterday, every stock trading session we got +$500M in new flows, we also got Saylor which bought $800M worth of BTC at like $60K. Most likely as MSTR keeps rallying he will keep issuing those convertibles notes and will keep buying them and the price of the stock will rally and he will sell more and buy more bitcoin.

Doesnt look like the train is stopping anytime soon.