To me it looks as if we are going back and forth for the time being and I would usually deem this time to be perfect to get into the DCA process. When you have an asset that has more upside than downside potential and it goes sideways for a while, then that's the time to make the right call and build your position with whatever disposable means you have available either in intervals or as a lump sum.
I am saying that we are going sideways because this up and down of a few thousand dollars never meant a lot in bitcoin. Google searches are relatively low but stable and so are the long-/short ratios on coinglass.com. By the way, these metrics don't mean that it couldn't blow up in the next few hours and go to $100k. What I am saying is that this rather represents a true opportunity than a gamble.
I don't disagree with anything that you are saying, yet from what perspective are you speaking? Have you already accumulated enough BTC or are you still accumulating BTC?
Surely, I presume that the overwhelming audience of this forum have not accumulated enough or more than enough BTC, so in that sense, the overwhelming suggestion is that any forum members should keep accumulating until they reach such status of enough accumulation or more than enough.
What to do becomes a bit more ambiguous for anyone who might be getting higher in regards to the amount of BTC that he has accumulated, so maybe those kinds of guys might just HODL or maybe from time to time buy on dips if there are dips that reach a sufficiently enough level.. otherwise they just might be just waiting and not really doing anything at these levels.. .not really buying and not really selling because we have largely been mostly between $55k and $74k since late February of this year.
If you only get started with your investment when the hype is on full fire and it is in the media everywhere again and the long-/short ratios are strongly shifting in favor of long positions, you might already have left value on the table.
I agree with that too... so anyone who has been accumulating BTC for less than a whole cycle or who might not have had front loaded his bitcoin investment may well have to just keep accumulating, and where we have been for the past 8-ish months should not decrease confidence in regards to where we might be going from here.
For a long term approach it doesn't really matter whether you get in at 67k or 61k. The road to 100k is already settled anyway in my opinion and it shouldn't be a threshold to sell either. Some people might say once we reach 100k, I take profits. I think that would be a huge mistake unless there are special circumstances that make it the best option for you personally.
That is true.. Mostly likely there should be a need for a whole cycle or two if anyone might be scraping off much if any "profits" in the $100k territories, and gosh we likely have come accross quite a few forum members in the past who had been thinking that 2x - 5x profits were meaningful, and then they ended up selling too much BTC too soon.
I believe once we reach six figures aka 100k, the potential rise afterwards can go faster than some people imagine. When bitcoin hit 10k, the magical five figure threshold has fallen and 20k didn't feel as wild anymore as 10k always felt although it is far more money that's need to go from 10k to 30k than is needed to go from 1k to 10k. But it is psychology. It feels unreal to go from 1k to 10k, weirdly enough, more unreal than going from 10k to 30k.
That's why I think you'd rather be in the market before it hits 100k because by then we might see a new push 300k as people say "six figures is six figures". It's interesting how magical this 100k threshold is. It is as unreal as 10k once was.
I largely agree with you about this too, yet every cycle we end up witnessing folks selling way too many BTC too soon, when they get caught up upon adding another digit, just like you mentioned with too many selling too soon around $1k and also too many selling too soon around $10k... though surely the first time we got to $10k there had not really been enough time for the buyers to catch up with the price, yet this time around, it seems that buyers have had plenty of chance to catch up with the price, namely, nearly 4 years.. hahahahaha. We were around $64k in early 2021, so sure 3.5 years ago, and so we might consider our back and forth and our opportunities for the buyers to catch up to the price to be a 3.5 year process and so we shouldn't be having any fears of buyers to continue to buy, even if the BTC price might go up several times from here.. sure it is not guaranteed, yet it can surely be problematic for guys who think that they are smart and they sell too much too soon in anticipation to buying back cheaper, but the price goes the opposite direction of their expectations... yeah, surely no coiners, lowcoiners, bitcoin doubters (naysayers), shitcoin pumpers, fence sitters all are going to believe that some of us bitcoin HODLers are talking our book and bitcoin cannot go up and blah blah blah.. and I hardly give too many shits because I am o.k.. either way, yet a lot of them do not have coins or do not have enough coins, and they are too busy fucking around preparing for down (or fucking around with shitcoins or failing/refusing to buy bitcoin) rather than making sure that they have enough for up, just in case.. which is the nature of an asymmetric bet to the upside, you don't even have to have a lot of coin in order to be prepared for UP, but you are kind of fuck if you naysay bitcoin and you fail/refuse to prepare for up because you think you are smarter than everyone else in terms of your supposed (presumptive) understanding of king daddy and your presumptions that its upside is limited to some arbitrary numbers that you have in your head.
I doubt that I am saying to wait before investing into bitcoin, even though I am saying get started investing in bitcoin as soon as possible within the confines of your discretionary/disposable income. So any aspect emphasizing waiting, learning or getting comfie. .That is not me. You are reading into what I say if you are believing that I am saying that.
Investors tend not to adhere to well-defined periods to follow the Bitcoin investment timing process, but the decision to continue depositing from the moment they decide can be very fruitful if it has discretionary money. Some investors overestimate bearishness, which can cause their investments to lag behind bull runs. An investor should gradually invest part of the income from a job or business to build up a modest holding by investing in Bitcoin. @JayJuanGee
You always advise us that there should be a balance between running bitcoin deposits with real assets.
Perhaps you are not doing it on purpose, but you are frequently misstating my prior assertions. Perhaps you are mixing me up with someone else or not reading what I have been saying correctly?
There surely are needs to balance BTC investment amounts with our abilities to make sure that we are able to cover our expenses and to make sure that we are spending from disposable/discretionary income in the arena that we are not going to expect to need that money that has been invested into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer.
In fact, I quoted you in the context of some investors giving more importance to Bitcoin investment than real assets due to emotions and trying to understand the tendency of building a Bitcoin stash through investment and channeling our investment down the road if a part of the discretionary income is invested so that there is a balance with real assets and investors can decide to invest the amount they can afford to lose. We prefer to assume that the price of Bitcoin will increase a lot and should make realistic investment decisions without devaluing our real assets in that price trend.
If we have a decent-sized Bitcoin pile, at that time we must have a place to invest in Bitcoin from the excess assets that we can get a touch more holding in a short time and in multiple cycles. Here it is possible to ensure the proper use of each bearish period with a gradual increase in the amount of backup funds.
To me, it sounds like you are saying different things than me, including when you state that you are summarizing my ideas, so I just want to make sure that I point out that I believe that what you are saying does not sound the same as what I am saying.
i suppose that if you are citing what I said and then saying what you believe that I mean, then at least others would be able to verify your statements to figure out if we might be saying the same thing or similar things.
I am getting somewhat lost in terms of figuring out what I might be able to say that is an attempt to clarify what I am saying that seems to differ from what I believe that you are saying to summarize me.
Essentially, I will concede that guys who come to bitcoin with other investments are going to be in a different position as compared with guys who come to bitcoin and they have no other investments.
Generally, I prefer to start out our presumption that newbies coming to bitcoin do not have any other investments and/or maybe they might have some savings that they might be able to direct towards investing into bitcoin when they are starting out in their journey to build up their bitcoin investment. So, in the beginning of any investor's journey, I am not presuming that they have any other investments to balance, and I am not even suggesting that they need to counter-balance their bitcoin investment with real assets, even though frequently, I will suggest that any newbie investing into bitcoin should be attempting to protect his investment into bitcoin by simultaneously building his emergency fund so that he never has to sell his bitcoin at any time that is not of his own choosing. Emergency funds tend to be held in the kind of cash that is generally used to pay bills, so whatever might be the fiat of the area that a person pays expenses, even though surely there are some jurisdictions in which the fiat loses value so much that some people might prefer to hold their cash in dollars (or some dollar equivalent) rather than holding the cash in the form of their own fiat. So I am not even suggesting that any kind of need to balance bitcoin investments with real assets, as you seem to be proclaiming to be my prior talking points.
Another thing I do frequently proclaim is that newbies should be attempting to individualize their investment into bitcoin in accordance with their
9 individual factors.
Once a person may have spent time building up his bitcoin investment and his emergency fund and other kinds of reserve funds, and then maybe the bitcoin investment might start to get close to or exceed a year's expenses, then maybe the person might consider balancing and/or diversifying into real assets, yet that is also optional as to when to start that kind of balancing and even how to go down such a balancing path, so I have never suggested any kind of need to balance with real assets and/or to even particularize which assets are good for balancing, except that I tend to suggest that investing into shitcoins is not necessary and also that traditional classifications of other categories of investable assets would be properties, equities, bonds, commodities and perhaps even business endeavors, yet none of those are mandatory areas that I had proclaimed to be necessary to balance a bitcoin investment beyond bitcoin and cash.. and surely anyone who invests long enough into bitcoin and ONLY has bitcoin and cash, may well start to figure out that it may well be in his interest to make sure that all of his investments are not ONLY in bitcoin and cash, yet I am not even suggesting that such balancing would be part of the earliest stages of bitcoin investing, except for people who had been able to front load their BTC investment and to get to higher levels of BTC investment faster than the overwhelming majority of folks who likely are going to need 1-2 cycles or more accumulating BTC before they might end starting to feel some needs to balance out their BTC investment with other assets (whether real or not).
By the way, your emphasis on "real" assets surely does not sound like something that I would proclaim to be necessary, since that makes me sound like some nutjob that believes gold has value because it is physical or even that houses have value because you can live in them and blah blah blah bullshit ideas that wouldn't be the kinds of proclamations that I would have had been making in recent times... or perhaps ever (in the past 10 years since I got into bitcoin).
By the way, these metrics don't mean that it couldn't blow up in the next few hours and go to $100k. What I am saying is that this rather represents a true opportunity than a gamble.
anything that's strong enough to cause that rapid boost of Bitcoin price from this price to $100k in the next 4 hours would be something that's strong enough to seriously shake the global financial system but even at that, it's unlikely that Bitcoin getting to $100k will happen too sudden within interval of hours.
There might have been past record that suggest such possibility of Bitcoin doing almost an additional 50% of it curent price in 4 hours that I'm not aware of but from recent chat expecially from the times it's clear that it will take days, weeks or months before Bitcoin will blow up to $100k. We know event also matters and can play a big role with regards how fast Bitcoin surges to $100k but the fact still remains that it will take time and processes before it eventually happens.
Of course, within hours is a bit of an exaggeration, since even when there are considerable price bounces, or even going into areas of price discovery, some of the momentum usually will have to build up, yet going 50% or higher past our current ATH within days is not really out of the question, yet I would imagine that even from here (Mid $66ks) there would be a bit of resistance until we reach $74k-ish, and then there should be some resistance in the $80k-ish area and then there also should be some resistance before going above $100k, so perhaps some resistance from about $92k to $98k and even right at $100k.. but sometimes when the BTC price starts to go up like that in those seemingly crazy kinds of ways, the resistance disappears because the otherwise sellers will sometimes pull their sell orders with a kind of sense of futility to sell during periods that price discovery is happening and there are no really signs of short-term stopping points.. and that it becomes a bit futile to try to go against the momentum once the momentum starts happening...and we cannot always know when that is going to be and how much of a move causes fewer and fewer coins to be available and for sale at those prices.
At some point, even when the BTC price is shooting up, there ends up being pauses that may or may not be able to stop or reverse the UPpity momentum... yet even those pausing points are not always obvious in terms of their likely success to stop the BTC price from going up... so then at that point, guys who had sold too much too soon may well end up kicking themselves, and/or getting stubborn, and sometimes turning into bitter no coiners or bitter low coiners, when they could have had a different fate if they had not ended up selling too many of their corn too soon.
I am not going to proclaim to know when or if those kinds of times are coming to bitcoin in the near future, yet I have been through several of them in the past 10 years, and it surely is a tense kind of a feeling, and can be paralyzing even for guys who are mostly hanging onto our coins, we may well be getting nervous about how much our net worth is going up in such a short time (on paper), and we may well question whether and/or how much we might want to put those paper profits into cash or just let them ride...so some of us who might have thought that we had a plan may well end up modifying our plan in the midst or just otherwise going through tough deliberations about what to do.. which might even be more difficult for guys who are in their earliest of stages of BTC accumulation. since they already know that they don't have enough BTC, but they also don't want to sell any either, even though they might well sense that the current level of BTC price rises are not sustainable... but they still might not be sure about what to do, even if they might have already had a tentative plan, but at the same time, they are questioning their tentative plan.
In fact, I quoted you in the context of some investors giving more importance to Bitcoin investment than real assets due to emotions and trying to understand the tendency of building a Bitcoin stash through investment and channeling our investment down the road if a part of the discretionary income is invested so that there is a balance with real assets and investors can decide to invest the amount they can afford to lose. We prefer to assume that the price of Bitcoin will increase a lot and should make realistic investment decisions without devaluing our real assets in that price trend.
If we have a decent-sized Bitcoin pile, at that time we must have a place to invest in Bitcoin from the excess assets that we can get a touch more holding in a short time and in multiple cycles. Here it is possible to ensure the proper use of each bearish period with a gradual increase in the amount of backup funds.
Yes there are many investors who get too emotional about investing and underestimate the real assets. Especially inexperienced and novice investors. I think the investment should have a balance of real assets or the amount of cash flow should be greater than the amount of money invested. You can use this cash flow as a back up fund. Back-up funds generally act as protection of investments or are considered to be protection of investments. Having back up funds is a prerequisite to sustain the investment for a long period of time.
We often get too pragmatic while investing, and don't plan for the future at all. Proper planning is essential to make an investment successful. Even that plan should be from the beginning to the end of the investment. Every investor should consider having a back-up fund and it is better if this back-up fund is more than the amount invested. Because you can divide this back up fund into several parts and prepare different funds for different periods. Be it a reserve fund or an emergency fund, you prepare the funds depending on your needs. But I consider the emergency fund a must. An investor should always be prepared for the unexpected.
If you are reading laijsica to be meaning that "real assets" is actually cash and emergency funds, then perhaps laijsica is saying similar things as me and other forum members if he is largely just referring to various kinds of back up funds rather than talking about real assets in terms of gold or physical property or some of those other kinds of understanding of real assets, since I surely have not been suggesting any kind of need to build or maintain investments in any other assets besides bitcoin and cash until such a point of time that they might get to a large enough size (such as 1 years of expenses) that it might start to make sense to branch out into other kinds of ways of holding value while still emphasizing the continued building of the bitcoin holdings... so yeah, if laijsica is referring to "real assets' to be cash, then we might be somewhat on the same page, even though the use of the term "real asset" is misleading if he considers cash to be a real asset rather than conventionally the term "real asset" refers to physical assets such as property, gold and maybe even equities in a company, which truly I would not consider those kinds of assets to be necessary for beginner bitcoiners, yet they might build up to a situation in which they might start to feel some needs to balance their bitcoin investment into other categories besides just bitcoin and cash.
I think years back the DCA strategy was not effective because the price was kinda affordable compare to now and i believe most investors back then where lump summing, I mean back then one can get some numbers of Bitcoin with $5k but right now it's entirely a different case,
That's not true and DCA is not something that just come out suddenly it has always been here right from the day one of Bitcoin, I don't no how you are seeing it because DCA is not like a physical entity that can be developed like that, so is like a theory that has already been on existence, so it was only left for people to know it and those who knows it then was also making a good use of it just like the way we are currently doing right now, secondly don't think that it was because of how low the price of Bitcoin is then that made people to disregard it, excluding the existence of DCA then is like saying that there was no investment when Bitcoin started, perhaps you are thinking that as you are learning about it now means that is not long it was introduced, however how would you no that Lump sum came on existence before DCA?.
Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy that plays an important role in Bitcoin. (DCA) plays an important role in investing in Bitcoin, because it can be said that (BTC) is considered the best method for a long-term chapter (DCA). The goal of dollar cost averaging is to apply value investing principles to regular investments.
The term DCA is said to have been first coined by Benjamin Graham in his 1949 book The Intelligent Investor. Graham writes that dollar cost averaging is something that practitioners will typically invest the same number of dollars in a stock each week or month or quarter.
From this we can say (DCA) is not something that came from nowhere. A review of history shows its rise long before the advent of Bitcoin.
Thanks for adding a little literature to the DCA method that I have been using for my bitcoin accumulation without knowing the origin. To be frank, I first learnt about the DCA method in this forum and I have fallen in love with it because of the ease and peace it gives me while investing in bitcoin. Through the DCA method, I have experienced exponential growth in my bitcoin portfolio at minimal financial stress. If I heard about the DCA method long time ago, maybe I could have applied it in other areas of investments when I have not heard about bitcoin. Right now, bitcoin is the best investment opportunity I have seen, the reason I am committed to buying through the DCA method and holding it for long time.
The actual practice of DCAing likely existed prior to it receiving a name.. whether applying it to stocks or a farmer applying the principle to saving money in order to buy a cow...or various other kinds of applications, since surely investing in stocks was not as available to regular people in earlier years and surely bitcoin and even shitcoins have brought more and more opportunities for normal peeps to get involved into investing, which surely I would not suggest to invest into shitcoins, even though they have come available to normal people in ways that might have been much more difficult to get such access to areas of investment even 5 or 10 years ago (even though many of us would not consider shitcoins to reasonably fit into the category of "investment").
