Fed rate adjustment on March 19/20 2024 what will happen?

[philipma1957]

I think the drop in BTC price is due to the fed rate adjustment meeting.

We should know by the 21st of march if they drop rates.

I think the BTC market stalled over this.

Opinions guesses etc.

CNBC thinks we do a freeze this time.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/heres-when-the-fed-may-start-cutting-rates-investment-strategists-say.html

[1714701261]

1714701261

[1714701261]

1714701261

[1714701261]

1714701261

[1714701261]

1714701261

[1714701261]

1714701261

[Lucius]

I think that the reason for the price drop may be something else, because it already happened before the FED makes a new decision. However, all speculations say that rates should no longer go up in the US, but also in the EU, which should be good news. The reason for the price drop is probably the liquidation of long positions, but also losses in the futures market, which together reached almost $1.5 billion.

The sell-off started during the U.S. trading hours on Thursday as the February Producer Price Index (PPI) came in 0.6% higher, doubling the pace in January and doubling economist forecasts, dousing hopes for a rate cut in May.
Data shows that crypto-tracked futures suffered over $800 million losses, the second-largest figure this year. Longs, or bets on higher prices, suffered $660 million in liquidations, likely contributing to the sharp downturn. Liquidation occurs when an exchange forcefully closes a trader’s leveraged position due to a partial or total loss of the trader’s initial margin.

[Doan9269]

It will be a better thing to see if actually this stays, i also noticed it that the fee rate has reduced at a desirable extent, maybe we should expect more of these as we go further because i know things cannot keep being the same way they have always appear, this should be a good news to some and while the miners may actually not find it as interesting like that because they are not earning as before at the cause.

[adaseb]

I think it’s the opposite. Bitcoin dropped because the stock market dropped last week due to the higher than expected CPI and PPI prints. Means that inflation is still here and traders are pricing in higher yields which was showed after the bond sell off.

I don’t think they will hike in March. If they did a cut then it would be bullish for stocks and crypto. However there is expectations that the fed might start rate cuts in June, and about 3 in total this year, towards the end of the year.

[With Gusto]

They raised too fast in recent history, so no action or a cut are the only likely options. The USA debt is out of control so at some point debates over small adjustments will end and mass panic will take over. Hopefully, that day can be delayed for several more years.

[Wind_FURY]

I think it’s the opposite. Bitcoin dropped because the stock market dropped last week due to the higher than expected CPI and PPI prints. Means that inflation is still here and traders are pricing in higher yields which was showed after the bond sell off.

I don’t think they will hike in March. If they did a cut then it would be bullish for stocks and crypto.

Jerome Powell won't hike, but he also won't cut rates. Rates will be maintained and it will be a continuation of the "higher for longer" narrative.

However there is expectations that the fed might start rate cuts in June, and about 3 in total this year, towards the end of the year.

The Federal Reserve is not in control, inflation is. The decision for rate cuts will depend on if actual inflation has truly gone down, OR if the unemployment rate surges uncontrollably.

[goaldigger]

I think it’s the opposite. Bitcoin dropped because the stock market dropped last week due to the higher than expected CPI and PPI prints. Means that inflation is still here and traders are pricing in higher yields which was showed after the bond sell off.

A proof that cryptomarket is also affected when the economy or stock market dropped, we are in the same cycle.
Well, considering that Bitcoin is already over bought and maybe this is just a normal correction with Bitcoin and no connection at all.

If they will increase the rate again, I'm sure many will be affected and yeah the problem with inflation and crisis is still here, there's another threat from Russia for a WWIII and that's more alarming.

[LoyceV]

I'm more worried about the fact that the entire economy not only depends but even relies on Central Banks' decisions.

[Lucius]

I'm more worried about the fact that the entire economy not only depends but even relies on Central Banks' decisions.

You are right about the central banks, but it should be emphasized that the eyes of the majority of the world are focused on the US central bank, no one even mentions (at least not too much) the European Central Bank or perhaps the central bank of Japan or the UK. It seems to me that all these banks are just waiting for what the FED will decide, and then align their decisions with that.

The world is much more centralized than many can imagine.

[LoyceV]

The world is much more centralized than many can imagine.

The more I think about it, the less it makes sense. Henry Ford comes to mind:

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.

He said that a long time ago, and I think it's still valid.

I like to think "the economy" depends on companies producing things, and people working for them. I expect most people to think like this.
But in reality, "the economy" depends on the amount of money being created by central banks, and it's terrible that basically everyone's life can be influenced literally at the flip of a switch.

This is also the main reason why I like Bitcoin. "Fix the money, fix the world"!

[davis196]

So you are suggesting that all Bitcoin traders/investors/HODLers are keeping an eye on the FED meetings and they make buying/selling decisions on whether FED will increase or decrease the interest rates? I find this hard to believe. The FOMO phase is over and it is impossible for the market to support a price level above 70K for a long time. Therefore most traders are selling BTC right now and sell traders are buying.
The "fear of missing out" is replaced with "fear of selling at a lower price" so everyone wants to sell now. This leads to a lower price. I think that this price drop has the potential to go below sixty thousand dollars. Anyway, I'm just going to HODL and wait for the next bull run.

[Minor Miner]

I think that this price drop has the potential to go below sixty thousand dollars. Anyway, I'm just going to HODL and wait for the next bull run.

When bitcoin increased to 70k$, people predicted bitcoin would soon reach 80k$ this month, but in the past 2 days bitcoin is entering a correction phase and many people started to change their predictions and believe that bitcoin will decrease below 60k$. As holders, we should not care about whether bitcoin increases or decreases in the short term, we should focus on accumulating and only sell when the price reaches the target, IMO.

Regarding the OP's question, I think the market has recently stopped paying too much attention to the Fed's recent decisions. If there is a decline, bitcoin will quickly recover immediately.

[Wind_FURY]

I think it’s the opposite. Bitcoin dropped because the stock market dropped last week due to the higher than expected CPI and PPI prints. Means that inflation is still here and traders are pricing in higher yields which was showed after the bond sell off.

A proof that cryptomarket is also affected when the economy or stock market dropped, we are in the same cycle.
Well, considering that Bitcoin is already over bought and maybe this is just a normal correction with Bitcoin and no connection at all.

Zoom out Bitcoin's chart to the maximum, then try to find the chart for the total M2 money supply and compare it with Bitcoin's market cycles. There's a correlation. If the money supply expands, Bitcoin is in a bullish cycle, of it contracts, it goes in a bearish cycle.

But the current surge is the only bullish cycle during a period of contraction. That probably means it's not sustainable, BUT it also means Bitcoin will surge like it surged during 2015 when the money supply expands.

[With Gusto]

..
...find the chart for the total M2 money supply and compare it with Bitcoin's market cycles. There's a correlation. If the money supply expands, Bitcoin is in a bullish cycle, of it contracts, it goes in a bearish cycle.
....

Too much funny money being created = More inflation and higher BTC prices, no surprise there. We seem to have two (or more) conversations developing:

1) Does the "Fed rate adjustment on March 19/20 2024" really matter when the big picture calls for a historically huge collapse of the Global economy?
2) Will the Fed (or any other "economic fundamentals") affect the ability of BTC to continue the 2024 Bull run and stay near/above the ATH before going much higher?

[Wind_FURY]

..
...find the chart for the total M2 money supply and compare it with Bitcoin's market cycles. There's a correlation. If the money supply expands, Bitcoin is in a bullish cycle, of it contracts, it goes in a bearish cycle.
....

Too much funny money being created = More inflation and higher BTC prices, no surprise there. We seem to have two (or more) conversations developing:

1) Does the "Fed rate adjustment on March 19/20 2024" really matter when the big picture calls for a historically huge collapse of the Global economy?

I believe the right question should be, will Jerome Powell be brave enough and be more aggressive with the rate hikes. I'm very confident that the answer to that is, NO. He will maintain the current interest rate, which is currently good because it's higher than the core inflation rate, and "wait for more data".

2) Will the Fed (or any other "economic fundamentals") affect the ability of BTC to continue the 2024 Bull run and stay near/above the ATH before going much higher?

Currently? But what can Jerome Powell do except maintain the current interest rate. But if core inflation surges above 5.5% - the current interest rate, it might be necessary for the Federal Reserve to do another rate hike, which could affect all markets.

[el kaka22]

If you are right and if the price went lower because of this, then I think it is going to be quite tough for us to get to a point where it could work any differently. I think it is important to focus on what we can do, and in this case I feel like the most important thing to do we have in our hands is just wait it out.

Because, if OP is right and this drop was due to this adjustment, then we need to remember that they are not going to increase it, the only viable two options would be either keep it as it is or just lower it. If they keep it as it is, is that a reason to drop it? I mean some may think so, but I think if we increased to 70k+ with the same interest, we should go back up again anyway, but if they drop it then it would be insanely well for crypto.

[OgNasty]

I think the price went lower because we just had a massive runup with lots of buying from the ETFs and we aren’t seeing the same inflows continue. I doubt it has anything to do with fed rates decisions. That being said, they want to lower but obviously can’t with inflation starting to tick up again. They should raise and try to pop the AI bubble, but they won’t do that either because we’re already seeing cracks forming in housing and private debt. So I think they’ll do nothing but issue a statement saying they’re keeping an eye on inflation.

[EarnOnVictor]

I think the drop in BTC price is due to the fed rate adjustment meeting.

We should know by the 21st of march if they drop rates.

I think the BTC market stalled over this.

Opinions guesses etc.

CNBC thinks we do a freeze this time.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/heres-when-the-fed-may-start-cutting-rates-investment-strategists-say.html

Thanks for putting this across, but I see things differently here. Bitcoin cannot be falling this much due to the FED's expected rate cut. It never moved this way when the inflation figures have been rising again in recent weeks, so the start of the FED's cutting can't cause the huge fall we are expecting now. What I believe is causing this is the much-expected and needed retracement, it is long overdue judging by the way Bitcoin has been strongly rising almost unchallenged for weeks. It has to fulfil the law of gravity like any other market/asset, so it will reach certain levels before it can meet strong support that would be effective enough to cause a rebound. Also, the breach of strong support at $67,629 has aggravated the fall recently.

As for FED, the Rate decision will happen today and tomorrow, and I still do not believe they will resolve to any rate cutting soon. We can decode that through the bitting inflation that has rekindled itself in the US recently. The recent releases of the CPI, PPI, and PCE are not encouraging as they show that inflation is moving higher again. They can't be that careless to cut the rate at a time like this, they would want to watch more and hold. For this, I expect a Hold of the Federal Fund's Rate, just as economists expect the same as seen below.

[Wind_FURY]

I think the price went lower because we just had a massive runup with lots of buying from the ETFs and we aren’t seeing the same inflows continue. I doubt it has anything to do with fed rates decisions. That being said, they want to lower but obviously can’t with inflation starting to tick up again. They should raise and try to pop the AI bubble, but they won’t do that either because we’re already seeing cracks forming in housing and private debt. So I think they’ll do nothing but issue a statement saying they’re keeping an eye on inflation.

THAT was actually what the Federal Reserve should have done two years ago. Tighten aggressively, even if that causes a recession, WHILE the people still have their savings intact. Going through it would be easier because they still have their savings as a fall-back. Currently, the people have less to no savings, more debt, and high interests rates with less money in circulation. An economic collapse now would not cause a Recession. It would be worse, a Depression, and it's harder to recover.

BUT let's hope that Jerome Powell is truly in control, and that he will succeed in accomplishing the "Soft Landing".

[philipma1957]

I think the price went lower because we just had a massive runup with lots of buying from the ETFs and we aren’t seeing the same inflows continue. I doubt it has anything to do with fed rates decisions. That being said, they want to lower but obviously can’t with inflation starting to tick up again. They should raise and try to pop the AI bubble, but they won’t do that either because we’re already seeing cracks forming in housing and private debt. So I think they’ll do nothing but issue a statement saying they’re keeping an eye on inflation.

THAT was actually what the Federal Reserve should have done two years ago. Tighten aggressively, even if that causes a recession, WHILE the people still have their savings intact. Going through it would be easier because they still have their savings as a fall-back. Currently, the people have less to no savings, more debt, and high interests rates with less money in circulation. An economic collapse now would not cause a Recession. It would be worse, a Depression, and it's harder to recover.

BUT let's hope that Jerome Powell is truly in control, and that he will succeed in accomplishing the "Soft Landing".

No he did exactly what was done back in 2007-2008 a longer flat period.  the cut was needed now not in june.  I smell a repeat of 2008.

maybe 🤔 it will help btc more than I think.