How Bitcoin Supercycle could become reality

[d5000]

After the ATH break, which came unexpectedly before the halving date, people started to talk again about a possible Bitcoin Supercycle. To know what the Bitcoin Supercycle is, you can read this article on Cointelegraph which is surprisingly good.

In short: A Bitcoin Supercycle would break the "cyclic" nature of the Bitcoin price evolution we had in the last 11 years (since 2013), where sharp uptrends culminate approximately a year (or a bit more) after each halving and are followed by bear markets which go down more than 70% compared with the previous ATH. In a Supercycle, the price would continue its uptrend, perhaps a bit less steep than before, but we would not see a bear market of let's say more than 30-50%.

My take on this theory is that the way people use Bitcoin and invest into it must be change fundamentally until this will happen. But we may already be close, and it is even possible that the next bear market will already be much softer than the previous ones.

The current mentality of the Bitcoin community is still one of speculation "riding the waves" or "hoard and sell". Many will say that they're HODLing, but they will sell when they perceive the market has reached a top and will go down, or when there is already a clear downtrend.

This is what has to change. Instead, we need:

1) More people HODLing for longer periods than 4 years. I'm aware that not everybody is able to do this, but people with some savings can. And they would help the Supercycle to materialize, and profit in the end. You have to take always into account: if the Supercycle is finally there, and you sold, then you'll very likely regret it.
2) More people using BTC as a currency. This does not mean only for "payments", but also for example for remittances or for crowdfunding businesses (that's why I in generally approve the ICO model, only that of course you have to be wary about scams). This creates additional liquidity, and liquidity is helpful to mitigate crashes because it creates thicker order books. And crashes are what people fear most, and what makes them panic sell, and ultimately drives BTC down.
3) More people buying into the falling knife in bear markets. Even with the current 70-80% bear markets, buying at less than ~33% of the previous top actually always has meant that you will be able to sell for profit in less than a year, and if you have 3 years time to HODL then you have profitted always even if you bought near the top (excluding the 69-73k run).
4) More people DCAing into Bitcoin, and not only while the bull roars.

So basically when these four things occur, then the Bitcoin Supercycle is near, according to my personal opinion obviously. All these four items lower the probability for a deep bear market. This is also a self-sustaining pattern: if people see that bear markets aren't that scary anymore, they will HODL for more time and not panic sell.

Some people may think that "the ETFs already fixed that". But I'm not so sure about this. The ETFs could create more long term investment (my item 1) and add liquidity (item 2), but the reality is also that the market can become saturated at some point (still not now, of course!) and then at local tops there could be more outflows than inflows due to profit taking. And from this point on, deep bear markets still would be possible.

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[bluebit25]

I love hearing about this kind of speculation in the space, but I also think that things only happen when the elements like that are in place to get approval. From the moment bitcoin was approved for a spot ETF, I envisioned crazy things in the crypto space over the next 1 -2 years.
In fact, the difficult period has passed and we are approaching the main price increase cycle. However, this is also useful information for us to refer to to decide in accordance with the plan.

[hugeblack]

I still believe that the 4-year model is valid because the main variable in it is the return from the block compared to the average costs of producing Bitcoin. Currently, Avg Block Fees are 0.1447 BTC/block, and each block produces about 6.424 BTC $414,723. If Block Rewards decreases to 3.125, and assuming that the average fee will be 0.2 total 3.225, which means a price of about 128k on average for the next four years and a range between 80k to 140k during the next three years. we are still in the category of corrections of 60% to 80%, although the possibility of 60% is more likely and no Supercycle.

The thing that could affect the four-year cycle is transaction fees. If they rise sharply, exceeding an average of 1.5 per block, then the price of Bitcoin will definitely be stable and we will not witness changes every 4 years.

[Maus0728]

I still believe that the 4-year model is valid because the main variable in it is the return from the block compared to the average costs of producing Bitcoin. Currently, Avg Block Fees are 0.1447 BTC/block, and each block produces about 6.424 BTC $414,723. If Block Rewards decreases to 3.125, and assuming that the average fee will be 0.2 total 3.225, which means a price of about 128k on average for the next four years and a range between 80k to 140k during the next three years. we are still in the category of corrections of 60% to 80%, although the possibility of 60% is more likely and no Supercycle.

I think you're speaking for everyone that the 4-year cycle is still the valid thing that we all should look out for, it's the thing that's consistently happening and it hasn't fail each cycle, I'd like to add that we can only be sure that there's supercycle happening or that it's going to happen when it finally happens, sure this is the first time that bitcoin has reached it's peak before halving but it's not the biggest telltale signs that a supercycle is going to happen.

Regarding the people that are going to be affected by this, I think that a lot of us would easily adapt to it in the case that it does happen, a lot of people that's been on the bitcoin market for awhile now have been through a lot of uncertain and volatile market patterns before so it's not really that difficult for us to adapt to changes that may come, even the new generation of bitcoin hodlers and investors are probably good at adaptation at adaptation to compared to past newbies that easily panic whenever the price goes down so bad.

[God bless u]

You might be right on the opinion of the super cycle but it's very difficult to make a decision on that for traders.BTC in this bull run multiplied peoples investments many times and now to hope for a super cycle and hold that amount is a bit difficult to think.

The investors who don't have a larger capital of assets should take the profits out because a super cycle hasn't occurred previously and to judge its occurrence can be very risky. The big investors should move on with the holding it might be true because the points you mentioned are well on the road to destination. So it's very tricky right now.

[Plaguedeath]

Most of Average Joes didn't think Bitcoin is the best asset for long term holding.

Let's say they have $100K, they will split it to 3-4 assets: first they will invest $50K in ETF (not Bitcoin ETF), second they will invest $40K in precious metal or stock, then the $10K they will invest in cryptocurrency. Usually they will diversify 50% for top cryptocurrency and 50% for shitcoins.

They think Bitcoin is like shitcoins, they use it to make more money through timing the market.

Most people will "buy into the failing knife" and "DCA", but holding longer than 4 years is high unlikely.

[davis196]

1) More people HODLing for longer periods than 4 years. I'm aware that not everybody is able to do this, but people with some savings can. And they would help the Supercycle to materialize, and profit in the end. You have to take always into account: if the Supercycle is finally there, and you sold, then you'll very likely regret it.
2) More people using BTC as a currency. This does not mean only for "payments", but also for example for remittances or for crowdfunding businesses (that's why I in generally approve the ICO model, only that of course you have to be wary about scams). This creates additional liquidity, and liquidity is helpful to mitigate crashes because it creates thicker order books. And crashes are what people fear most, and what makes them panic sell, and ultimately drives BTC down.
3) More people buying into the falling knife in bear markets. Even with the current 70-80% bear markets, buying at less than ~33% of the previous top actually always has meant that you will be able to sell for profit in less than a year, and if you have 3 years time to HODL then you have profitted always even if you bought near the top (excluding the 69-73k run).
4) More people DCAing into Bitcoin, and not only while the bull roars.

You could just use the term "mass adoption of Bitcoin" instead of writing all that text.
There's room for growth of Bitcoin. The amount of Bitcoin investors/supporters around the world is still relatively small. The problem is that most noobs, who enter the world of Bitcoin are lacking experience, which means that they are vulnerable to panic selling and falling into various crypto scams.
Bitcoin remains a scarce asset with growing demand, which means that the price is destined to increase in the long term. That doesn't mean that there won't be bear markets in the future. I still convinced that many BTC investors/traders are capable of panic selling, if a big enough FUD reason occurs.

[livingfree]

And from this point on, deep bear markets still would be possible.

I agree but as we move to another year and going through a cycle again for the bull run, it's more likely that these bear markets won't be that aggressive compared to the past ones that we've been.

This time, I guess I am saying this because we're on the bull run. But if I'm looking back at 2018 and 2022 which they've followed the bull run, it's more obvious that the hit goes with the 2018 and the deeper bear market has happened by that time.

Unlike 2022, it's more of a slow market but can still be said as another bear market. It doesn't look painful at all when we've been holding for so long and even if the peak was $69k, we've got a new all time low at that time.

[naira]

Some people may think that "the ETFs already fixed that". But I'm not so sure about this. The ETFs could create more long term investment (my item 1) and add liquidity (item 2), but the reality is also that the market can become saturated at some point (still not now, of course!) and then at local tops there could be more outflows than inflows due to profit taking. And from this point on, deep bear markets still would be possible.

ETFs are like an appetizer for Bitcoin to become more massive. It could be said that the opening of this ETF is an ideal point for all institutional investors who previously did not dare to enter Bitcoin, now they can place their trust in a party whose reputation is beyond doubt to store their assets. We who act as retailers must be a little patient and not easily give up Bitcoin ownership, institutional demand for Bitcoin is always in large quantities, so the increasing demand in the market shows a sign that the Bitcoin Supercycle cannot be stopped this year and next year.

[Cryptomultiplier]

Some people may think that "the ETFs already fixed that". But I'm not so sure about this. The ETFs could create more long term investment (my item 1) and add liquidity (item 2), but the reality is also that the market can become saturated at some point (still not now, of course!) and then at local tops there could be more outflows than inflows due to profit taking. And from this point on, deep bear markets still would be possible.

ETFs are like an appetizer for Bitcoin to become more massive. It could be said that the opening of this ETF is an ideal point for all institutional investors who previously did not dare to enter Bitcoin, now they can place their trust in a party whose reputation is beyond doubt to store their assets. We who act as retailers must be a little patient and not easily give up Bitcoin ownership, institutional demand for Bitcoin is always in large quantities, so the increasing demand in the market shows a sign that the Bitcoin Supercycle cannot be stopped this year and next year.

I think we just have to agree that the pathway Bitcoin is threading is more than just a perfect pre-planning. The advancement and progress BTC has had to make over the time has helped other cryptos rise to the challenge and become better.
The forces behind the creation of BTC is more than responsible for this and that's why each stage of achievement makes it a more demanded coin hence making it more fulfil its supercycle.
Like the ETF approval, accepting to be regulated in many societies, having its own ATM machines in some developed cities, having a good store value, the halving and other things it has recently done to make it genuine, it's definitely going to be bullish a long time.
The supercycle is already in motion and we might see BTC rising to more than $120k before may/June, with more ETF investors.

[DanWalker]

Personally, I also predict this bull cycle will be a super bull cycle, but the catalyst for that to happen is that we have the ETFs, inflation cools down, the US election, the world economy enters the post-crisis recovery period, everyone's need to make money will be greater because everyone needs money to overcome the recent difficult period...All of this will trigger a super bullish cycle, as investment demand increases significantly. This will not only happen in the cryptocurrency market but also across the entire financial market.

[stompix]

I still believe that the 4-year model is valid because the main variable in it is the return from the block compared to the average costs of producing Bitcoin. Currently, Avg Block Fees are 0.1447 BTC/block, and each block produces about 6.424 BTC $414,723. If Block Rewards decreases to 3.125, and assuming that the average fee will be 0.2 total 3.225, which means a price of about 128k on average for the next four years and a range between 80k to 140k during the next three years. we are still in the category of corrections of 60% to 80%, although the possibility of 60% is more likely and no Supercycle.

The block reward is tricky stuff.

For example, if we look back a few months the reward was under 30 mils a day, now ( a bit unusual as faster blocks happened today day) it has spiked to $74 mils, so even the so-called halving cycle will not really mean a decrease of supply in $ value, we were producing 30 mils of coins we're going to produce 35 mils even after this.
Also, the fee is more tied to the value in $, people don't really care about 20sat/vb or 100sat/vb they care what that means in $, so the blocks will never be able to keep an equilibrium there.

I will go with d5000 opinion as I think we're entering a stage of market maturity, and unlike previously the causes for large swing will be gone, as well as a new attitude from the new generation of investors

[kryptqnick]

Well, the price not falling more than 30-50% below the ATH sounds very nice, but I don't get why it's supposed to happen now. I mean, sure, the bull market came a little early, but I don't think it's such a major change. I'm also wondering whether smaller drops will be accompanied by smaller gains in the bull markets.
As for things that have to change, hodling for 4+ years and using Bitcoin more as a currency sound like two very different and perhaps incompatible points.

[electronicash]

this supercycle has been talked about years ago. cool to see it will be possible already by how the market is doing this year that we hit the previous ATH without the halving. we normally get this after halving so it is amazing how this will carry on.  I'm sure the ETFs have something to do with this, it's not just BlackRock that's buying up so yes I'm gonna be hoping it will really happen. who wouldn't want that?

when baby boomers are trying to buy some BTC, i suppose we're already heading there.

[d5000]

I still believe that the 4-year model is valid because the main variable in it is the return from the block compared to the average costs of producing Bitcoin. Currently, Avg Block Fees are 0.1447 BTC/block, and each block produces about 6.424 BTC $414,723. If Block Rewards decreases to 3.125, and assuming that the average fee will be 0.2 total 3.225, which means a price of about 128k on average for the next four years and a range between 80k to 140k during the next three years. we are still in the category of corrections of 60% to 80%, although the possibility of 60% is more likely and no Supercycle.

Could you elaborate a bit more? Is your assumption based on variations of the selling pressure by miners?

My take on that is that miners' "power" to influence price is declining and already quite small, as they're a small minority of all BTC sellers now (about 0,1 % if you take total exchange volume, may be higher on the BTC/USD market though).

Most of Average Joes didn't think Bitcoin is the best asset for long term holding.

That's actually part of the problem why we have seen no Supercycle yet. It's a self-reinforcing cycle.

You could just use the term "mass adoption of Bitcoin" instead of writing all that text.

No, seems you didn't understand the post. "Mass adoption" could also mean that every single person in the world adopts the habit of buying low and selling high. This is absolutely the kind of mass adoption which will keep the harsh bull-bear cycles in place. And no, it's not only noobs who are selling at the cycle tops or when they think the bear market has begun. The whales do the same thing, and pro traders short the market.

You could shorten the examples I gave to something like "stability-oriented mass adoption". Or "mass adoption without cyclic speculation". But the type of adoption is still crucial.

[Upgrade00]

To get the super cycle we would need majority of bitcoins to be in the hands of cooperations and institutions. Regular retail investors will for the most part act to maximize profits as soon as possible, making a couple of mistakes along the way. Only a few would be able to put significant amount of money away for the long term (4+ years) and not panic as the market goes up and down. We cannot wish that the rest will build that mindset or start to earn enough to comfortably do that.

If we can unlock this as a community, it would be a big step in moving us closer to the super cycle.

[Casdinyard]

After the ATH break, which came unexpectedly before the halving date, people started to talk again about a possible Bitcoin Supercycle. To know what the Bitcoin Supercycle is, you can read this article on Cointelegraph which is surprisingly good.

In short: A Bitcoin Supercycle would break the "cyclic" nature of the Bitcoin price evolution we had in the last 11 years (since 2013), where sharp uptrends culminate approximately a year (or a bit more) after each halving and are followed by bear markets which go down more than 70% compared with the previous ATH. In a Supercycle, the price would continue its uptrend, perhaps a bit less steep than before, but we would not see a bear market of let's say more than 30-50%.

My take on this theory is that the way people use Bitcoin and invest into it must be change fundamentally until this will happen. But we may already be close, and it is even possible that the next bear market will already be much softer than the previous ones.

The current mentality of the Bitcoin community is still one of speculation "riding the waves" or "hoard and sell". Many will say that they're HODLing, but they will sell when they perceive the market has reached a top and will go down, or when there is already a clear downtrend.

This is what has to change. Instead, we need:

1) More people HODLing for longer periods than 4 years. I'm aware that not everybody is able to do this, but people with some savings can. And they would help the Supercycle to materialize, and profit in the end. You have to take always into account: if the Supercycle is finally there, and you sold, then you'll very likely regret it.
2) More people using BTC as a currency. This does not mean only for "payments", but also for example for remittances or for crowdfunding businesses (that's why I in generally approve the ICO model, only that of course you have to be wary about scams). This creates additional liquidity, and liquidity is helpful to mitigate crashes because it creates thicker order books. And crashes are what people fear most, and what makes them panic sell, and ultimately drives BTC down.
3) More people buying into the falling knife in bear markets. Even with the current 70-80% bear markets, buying at less than ~33% of the previous top actually always has meant that you will be able to sell for profit in less than a year, and if you have 3 years time to HODL then you have profitted always even if you bought near the top (excluding the 69-73k run).
4) More people DCAing into Bitcoin, and not only while the bull roars.

So basically when these four things occur, then the Bitcoin Supercycle is near, according to my personal opinion obviously. All these four items lower the probability for a deep bear market. This is also a self-sustaining pattern: if people see that bear markets aren't that scary anymore, they will HODL for more time and not panic sell.

Some people may think that "the ETFs already fixed that". But I'm not so sure about this. The ETFs could create more long term investment (my item 1) and add liquidity (item 2), but the reality is also that the market can become saturated at some point (still not now, of course!) and then at local tops there could be more outflows than inflows due to profit taking. And from this point on, deep bear markets still would be possible.

As time passes by, the skills and predisposition of the people about bitcoin and crypto in general changes for the better as anything that becomes better with age. What in the past would usually spell panic selling would not faze even the regular noobie at present, not only because they are more knowledgeable than newbies in the past were, but also because the community that bitcoin has harbored across the years turned into a solid cabal that allowed people to provide support and assistance among people who are already scared and confused about the state of the market in these situations, whereas in the past we're left to fend for ourselves.

I think all of this goes to show that what we are building here, intentionally and inadvertently shaped bitcoin not only to be a formidable currency that would stand the tests of time and the market, but also a community and an industry that is inclusive, smart, and actively looking for better ways to expand its reach. We keep this shit up and soon enough we're going to break the minds of ever critic out there, everyone who's had a doubt about bitcoin's validity eveer since it broke out the market in 2016, and every Ripple CEO who wishes they can be as big as us. LOL.

[harapan]

this supercycle has been talked about years ago. cool to see it will be possible already by how the market is doing this year that we hit the previous ATH without the halving. we normally get this after halving so it is amazing how this will carry on.  I'm sure the ETFs have something to do with this, it's not just BlackRock that's buying up so yes I'm gonna be hoping it will really happen. who wouldn't want that?

when baby boomers are trying to buy some BTC, i suppose we're already heading there.

The  bitcoin analysts will know when the supercycle will eventually commence,The supercycle evolution is going to be interesting that crypto is on the verge of a complete rise in mass adoption.

The emergence of bitcoin supercycle has been talked about for so long and it literally seems to be happening anytime soon.The pathway that bitcoin is creating for it's users is incredibly undeniable.
The supercycle is welcoming everyone into another realm full of expectations and excitement.

[btc78]

Expecting people to hold for longer than 4 years might be a punch in the moon.

One thing we can not change is the psychological nature of people. The way they think, the way they react, and the resulting consequences of those decisions are pretty much the same for almost all people. Many will expect fud and sell their coins even if there is no remotely bad happening.

Another thing is that due to high transaction fees, not a lot are very keen in using bitcoin as a currency. If this were to be solved, I am sure your fantasy of supercycle could actually come true.

[hatshepsut93]

I remember there was a lot of hype about the supposed supercycle in 2020-2021, and then it still player out the good old pattern of a big bull run ending with big crash. So the key word here is that a supercycle "could" become a reality, but the probability of it is unknown. Could be high, could be low.

But my worry is that there's also the probability of the opposite of the supercycle - super bear market that could happen if investors and traders get bored of Bitcoin and move on to something different, something completely unrelated to cryptocurrency. With a lot of money leaving the market and no new investments, there good be a very long depression with the price falling down by 80-90%. Essentially it would mean that majority of the Bitcoin market history was a big long bubble, and the bear markets were just corrections of this long mania phase.

The probability of this doomsday scenario is just as unknown as the probability of a supercycle.