Countdown to the 4th Bitcoin halving.. what should we expect?

[Poker Player]

I don't expect anything special on halving day. What I do expect is that halving will slowly take effect and in a few months we will have a rise to $100K and beyond. By reducing the supply of new Bitcoins and having generated in the previous cycles price hikes there will be fewer Bitcoins for sale, or for sale at a price that the seller considers low.

[BlackHatCoiner]

I don't expect tremendous changes during the halving, but after it. We're falling from 900 BTC mined per day to only 450. It's a matter of time until there's pressure for 100k.

but I don't expect the same rise now to go from $3200 to $420000 but 6 digits is still possible.

We haven't been to $3200 since 2019. The last halving was in 2020. I don't see the relevance. We were about $9000 when the halving happened last time, and we're sitting on $70k right before the next one. That's more than 7x. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we are sitting in $420k right before the halving of 2028.

[Cryptomultiplier]

There isn't much to expect but the price patterns and market trend before then is what should matter most. Right now, BTC is down 13% making a bearish turn and that is the price dipping from the $73k past the ATH where it was last week to about $63k. Also miners activities has began to reduce noticeably.
Although the ETF has done more to increase BTC demand by investors, we are nearing the period when the market might go quiet for a time until the halving event has been effected.

[NotATether]

We haven't been to $3200 since 2019. The last halving was in 2020. I don't see the relevance. We were about $9000 when the halving happened last time, and we're sitting on $70k right before the next one. That's more than 7x. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we are sitting in $420k right before the halving of 2028.

I really don't think there's going to be a giant correction this year unless some exchange or government does something really stupid, like KuCoin going bust or USA trying to ban crypto payments or something like that.

That being said, Poker Player nailed it here:

I don't expect anything special on halving day. What I do expect is that halving will slowly take effect and in a few months we will have a rise to $100K and beyond. By reducing the supply of new Bitcoins and having generated in the previous cycles price hikes there will be fewer Bitcoins for sale, or for sale at a price that the seller considers low.

[Fatunad]

We haven't been to $3200 since 2019. The last halving was in 2020. I don't see the relevance. We were about $9000 when the halving happened last time, and we're sitting on $70k right before the next one. That's more than 7x. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we are sitting in $420k right before the halving of 2028.

I really don't think there's going to be a giant correction this year unless some exchange or government does something really stupid, like KuCoin going bust or USA trying to ban crypto payments or something like that.

That being said, Poker Player nailed it here:

I don't expect anything special on halving day. What I do expect is that halving will slowly take effect and in a few months we will have a rise to $100K and beyond. By reducing the supply of new Bitcoins and having generated in the previous cycles price hikes there will be fewer Bitcoins for sale, or for sale at a price that the seller considers low.

When it comes to correction then i dont make myself that too confident in regarding to this on which we know that dumps and extreme correction might still happen or shall we say that last dump before the market would really be  shooting up into the moon on which this is something that could likely to happen. I do agree on some points about that having that ETF thing on which it might not really be that much of a deep correction
if ever there's one would be happening but come to think on how much these fellas been holding? Considering their buy or entry point then it could be likely that they wont really be releasing their bags
in a short time. This is why i do agree on some points that there might be not much of a deep correction.

The key on here is that, you should expect the unexpected. No one really knows on what would happen in the market and its always been like this and there's no way that
we could be able to know on where it would really be going. This is why it would really be that just that depending on how you would really be acting according into it or
the steps that you would be making.

[Vincom]

I don't expect anything special on halving day. What I do expect is that halving will slowly take effect and in a few months we will have a rise to $100K and beyond. By reducing the supply of new Bitcoins and having generated in the previous cycles price hikes there will be fewer Bitcoins for sale, or for sale at a price that the seller considers low.

This is what happened in previous seasons, I hope it will repeat this season: Halving reduces the block reward, meaning miners have less BTC to sell, while increasing the minimum mining price of each BTC, thereby doubling the expected price of miners. In addition, Halving is also a media event, helping to attract new investors and cash flow, helping to increase the price of BTC in the long term.

At the Halving, BTC price will usually fluctuate slightly due to the sell-the-news sentiment in the market, but I don't think this is really important. It is just an opportunity for us to buy more BTC at a lower price. Spot BTC ETFs may have made new history as we have already had a new ATH before halving, but I think the cyclical nature of BTC will still be maintained and we will wait for the top of BTC in 2025.

[Casdinyard]

One thing you should brace yourselves fr is the panic dumping that will happen when the halving commences and people are shocked bitcoin couldn’t propel itself to the stratosphere just yet. It happened in the previous halvings, with the most devastating one being in the most recent halving where bitcoin literally dropped to 3k if I’m not mistaken, by which it recovered quickly and had rallied itself towards 60k by 2021.

People should prepare themselves so they can time their buys correctly and reentry at the safest and most profitable price points possible. With these taken care of you can almost always expect a 2024-2025 that’s bountiful. Don’t let the panic dumping scare you off of the crypto scene as with bitcoin, being the safest cryptocurrency to invest out there, all these price dumps act as a more profitable reentry price for seasoned investors like us.

[redsun114]

Expect nothing? BTC will eventually go above $100k everybody can see that but is it going to be enough for you? Everybody is living their own reality. Depending on how many coins you hodl and what your entry price is, your expectations may vary a lot. So if you don't expect anything, you won't get disappointed if nothing happens. However, if something slightly good happens, then you will be very happy because your expectations were very low. (basically nothing) That's the secret recipe of being a long term hodler. Just pretend dead because dead people are the best investors according to Fidelity.^[1]

One thing I always say is that expectations hurt.
There is nothing wrong with thinking positively and being optimistic, but too many expectations will only disappoint you. It can be even more painful when you want to invest in projects that pay off over a long period. We should keep our minds ready for any situation because trading is not something in which you will get fixed and constant profit.

I am very optimistic about Bitcoin like all traders, I am optimistic that BTC will go higher, but I always keep my mind open to the possibility that anything can happen so we should be ready for any kind of results in the short or long run.

[kro55]

Expect nothing? BTC will eventually go above $100k everybody can see that but is it going to be enough for you? Everybody is living their own reality. Depending on how many coins you hodl and what your entry price is, your expectations may vary a lot. So if you don't expect anything, you won't get disappointed if nothing happens. However, if something slightly good happens, then you will be very happy because your expectations were very low. (basically nothing) That's the secret recipe of being a long term hodler. Just pretend dead because dead people are the best investors according to Fidelity.^[1]

One thing I always say is that expectations hurt.
There is nothing wrong with thinking positively and being optimistic, but too many expectations will only disappoint you. It can be even more painful when you want to invest in projects that pay off over a long period. We should keep our minds ready for any situation because trading is not something in which you will get fixed and constant profit.

I am very optimistic about Bitcoin like all traders, I am optimistic that BTC will go higher, but I always keep my mind open to the possibility that anything can happen so we should be ready for any kind of results in the short or long run.

This is what many investors are missing, many only dream of higher goals that bitcoin will achieve and they ignore the risks that bitcoin can bring to us. No asset is risk-free and bitcoin is no exception, Bitcoin is even riskier because the higher the return, the higher the risk.

I also look forward and have great expectations that bitcoin will touch $100k or more, but I will not rule out a scenario where bitcoin will plummet, and I always have a backup plan for my investment.

[AVE5]

On halving, we should expect the miners' reward to be reduced by a half. That's what this event is about. We can also expect more media attention on Bitcoin than usual, maybe a few articles about halving. There's no direct correlation between halvings and bull markets because counting whatever happens over the next 1 year or so and attributing that to halving is stretching it. During 2016 halving, the price stayed roughly the same as pre-halving, and the bull market properly hit only at the end of 2017. The 2020 halving was also largely uneventful, with the price really starting to grow in October of the same year. So this time, it will probably also be pretty uneventful.

Absolutely, the halving is a slash of reduction of the miners rewards which as an event is exercised at every circles of 4 years. It's also deeply affected to the investors which gives some highlights of selling their holdings before this halving run due to marketing emotions of lost of funds and still the same halving is accompanied to influence Investors to invest and attracts more of Investors with the media speculations that a new market phase would trend which is the bull run where investors a d miners rewards would be multiplied in folds but in an exaggeration of impressive volumes.

[Nanga Parbat]

One thing I always say is that expectations hurt.
There is nothing wrong with thinking positively and being optimistic, but too many expectations will only disappoint you. It can be even more painful when you want to invest in projects that pay off over a long period. We should keep our minds ready for any situation because trading is not something in which you will get fixed and constant profit.

You are right In investing relying entirely on your own judgment is nothing short of a laughing stock.  In every investment there is the fear of profit or loss, but judicious thought and experience can be beneficial to us.  Always remember not just relying on guesswork, but making decisions with thorough details and analysis.  As in every trade there is risk in investing, but controlling our psychology is the secret to our success.  We investments should always be made keeping in mind your financial goals and risk tolerance.

[LogitechMouse]

~
Some may wonder how this affects the price of Bitcoin going forward. From historical data, Bitcoin has always risen after the previous three halvings. Let's see if this trend continues.

What's your take on this? How excited are you for this halving, and what's your prediction for BTC price movements?

Well, you said it already. Supply will be cut into half, demand will stay the same if not increase therefore, the price of Bitcoin will increase in the long run. Let's also include the fact that there is a Spot Bitcoin ETFs that have been approved, and ever since they operated, there has been a huge amount of Bitcoin going to these companies. There will be a "supply shock" that will happen.

Miners will be the most affected on this one because their profitability will be reduced, but with the price of Bitcoin increasing, I think it will cover that loss in the long run. Based on history, the price of Bitcoin goes up a months after the halving event, and like what happened in the last 3 halving events, I believe that it will happen again this time. Trend will continue because. How excited I am? Hmmm, not really because I've seen it happened once already during the pandemic and TBH, nothing significant will happen. The day when it will happen will just be a normal day for us investors. Price will not get impacted right away that's for sure.

Prediction? Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by Q4 of 2023 at least.

[Agbe]

Bitcoin's price won't be affected to huge degrees during the halving events if we see the history of it, but this time due to the ETFs, I believe the value of Bitcoin will grow during the halving event. I think that Bitcoin may reach $75k value during the halving event this time. However, I also think that it may reach or cross $80k value if a new rally takes place.

I was also predicting the price at $75k or $80k during the halving but seeing the price now $65,462.9 and it is still going down now. Therefore bitcoin bitcoin price might go down to below $60k in the halving. And this is my first time of coming to see the halving. And many people do not know the meaning of halving but they have been hearing the concept of the events since they join the community. So this thread can also made some justification on it. The halving event is important for both the buyer and the seller (both traders) because it reduces the number of new mining bitcoins that has been generated in the network. So this will make the price rise again when the demand is high. And that will be the all Time High ATH period in bitcoin. Those who are still confused of the event or occasion can learn from this.

[Assface16678]

One thing I always say is that expectations hurt.
There is nothing wrong with thinking positively and being optimistic, but too many expectations will only disappoint you. It can be even more painful when you want to invest in projects that pay off over a long period. We should keep our minds ready for any situation because trading is not something in which you will get fixed and constant profit.

You are right In investing relying entirely on your own judgment is nothing short of a laughing stock.  In every investment there is the fear of profit or loss, but judicious thought and experience can be beneficial to us.  Always remember not just relying on guesswork, but making decisions with thorough details and analysis.  As in every trade there is risk in investing, but controlling our psychology is the secret to our success.  We investments should always be made keeping in mind your financial goals and risk tolerance.

.This coming halving event, I'm sure it will be hyped again and many investors or new investors will surely buy bitcoijnin its high price the scary part is those who are not experience enough in investing and bitcoin and they might sell their bitcoin right away if theu saw it dip even just a little bit and this is a common mistakes of those new investors that invest or briught bitcoin out of nowhere, they are just following the trend or the hype and engaging in bitcoin without proper analysis in the market, we can't blame them but the thing is it will affect the movement of the bitcoin, but what I expect in the halving event is that it might cause of bitcoin's skyrocketing of price but of course we or I'm not 100% sure if it will happen, its just baded on my analysis it might happen but let's see, market is unpredictable, few days left we will witness either good or bad news. 

[Sanitough]

I don't expect anything special on halving day. What I do expect is that halving will slowly take effect and in a few months we will have a rise to $100K and beyond. By reducing the supply of new Bitcoins and having generated in the previous cycles price hikes there will be fewer Bitcoins for sale, or for sale at a price that the seller considers low.

We are now closer to bitcoin halving and yet, there’s still no anything special that come up with bitcoin price these days. So might as well not to expect more from this halving, just focus on hodling until we end up seeing an impressive price when bitcoin bull run comes. However, this halving is still an important event for bitcoin, that’s why majority are still looking forward for great news days before halving.

[pooya87]

but I don't expect the same rise now to go from $3200 to $420000 but 6 digits is still possible.

We haven't been to $3200 since 2019. The last halving was in 2020. I don't see the relevance. We were about $9000 when the halving happened last time, and we're sitting on $70k right before the next one. That's more than 7x. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we are sitting in $420k right before the halving of 2028.

We saw prices below $4k resistance in first quarter of 2020 too. But maybe my time frames are a bit weird because I consider the previous cycle (the one started after the correction from $20k bubble in 2018) to be incomplete so I usually count that bottom as the start of the entire cycle we are still in.

[Kakmakr]

20 days to go to this significant event, something that might break the smaller miners ..but also something that benefit the speculators in this technology. 

We will soon see a situation where the Block reward will be less than 1 bitcoin and we hope transactions will increase enough in the future, so that "Miner fees" can replace it.

I cannot see that happening with the Lightning Network grabbing most of the small payments ... but we will have a better picture of the future of Bitcoin mining after this "Halving".

[tygeade]

Expect nothing? BTC will eventually go above $100k everybody can see that but is it going to be enough for you? Everybody is living their own reality. Depending on how many coins you hodl and what your entry price is, your expectations may vary a lot. So if you don't expect anything, you won't get disappointed if nothing happens. However, if something slightly good happens, then you will be very happy because your expectations were very low. (basically nothing) That's the secret recipe of being a long term hodler. Just pretend dead because dead people are the best investors according to Fidelity.^[1]

One thing I always say is that expectations hurt.
There is nothing wrong with thinking positively and being optimistic, but too many expectations will only disappoint you. It can be even more painful when you want to invest in projects that pay off over a long period. We should keep our minds ready for any situation because trading is not something in which you will get fixed and constant profit.

I am very optimistic about Bitcoin like all traders, I am optimistic that BTC will go higher, but I always keep my mind open to the possibility that anything can happen so we should be ready for any kind of results in the short or long run.

Yeah true, you can't make profit all the time, there is no scenario which that could even be possible. What we aim at would only be trying to make profit whenever we can and hope that overall it's in profit. You can lose 10 make 20 and be in profit, that doesn't mean you never lost, you just won more than you lost that's it. If you can aim at that, then you are going to be doing a lot better without a doubt. Lots of people miss that part of the deal and try to not make a loss.

With this new halving, I bet that there will be a lot of people who will make a lot of money, we all make money during bull run, but unfortunately there are way too many people who will hold way too long and take too many risks and lose more than they earn when the bear comes.

[EarnOnVictor]

I don't expect anything special on halving day. What I do expect is that halving will slowly take effect and in a few months we will have a rise to $100K and beyond.

This is on point, my friend. The halving, contrary to how many people believe it, will not impact the Bitcoin market positively immediately. It may take a while and it might start with a negative market outlook before the expected buying. And if I should predict, I would say that in the first weeks after halving, Bitcoin might take a nosedive and this will discourage people so much, and hence, the reason for the initial fall. But it will get to a level where it will meet strong support where the effect of the halving will start and this would couple with the completion of some kind of correction at that time due to the initial fall.

For this, Bitcoin would have taken the needed market breath to have more power and room for a higher price and this would return FOMO into the market to the point that the $100,000 would be hit within a short period of time afterwards. I nonetheless expect this to happen towards the 8-11 months of 2024, and if the tempo is sustained till the first quarter of 2025, Bitcoin may reach $120,000 easily in that period.

In other words, there could be some turbulent moments before the sweet ride upward, which is against the immediately smooth ride that people widely expect.

[Dunamisx]

Everyone is eager to see what is going to be like on the occasion of the halving event, well, all i can say now is for us to do all we can while ensuring that we are investing and holding, because the market already is going unpredictable and we can begin to see the massive rise anytime from now, instead of us expecting what it may be like or look, we can have our hands on something that may give us opportunity over our investment on it, the earlier the better.