My instincts on the value of bitcoin from now to halving

[Fundamentals Of]

Well it had just hit a mark above $71,000 a day after you made this post.

I think we are still in the middle of the bull run. The hype has not yet died down. Thanks to the halving that will happen next month, there probably remains a high level of FOMO until now, following the approval and the interest in the spot ETF.

Despite the sell-off that happened days ago, the recover was very quick. There is still a strong demand. I can still see $75,000 as a probability before the halving.

[AnonBitCoiner]

The price is regulary going up and down so its not a bad thing but we are getting opportunity to collect even more coins according to our target. Bitcoin once again touched the value of 71k$ but suddenly it returned back to 69k$ but it is not the last increase.

People have targeted the value of bitcoin to attain 100k$ and they will not sell their bitcoin before that value and if selling remains down then very soon we will see this targeted value. When bitcoin was down to 61k$ after 73k$ then people thought in similar way that Bull season become end but you can see that still we are in Bull season and once again bitcoin hit 70k$.

[Lucius]

At the time of making this post, on the 4hr TF the RSI shows overbought but then I've come to realize that in the market there's nothing like overbought or oversold in the true sense of it as price can stretch any length it wants. Though, from other confluences, I expect a little dip from this point at $70,300 to $67,800. If it breaks that level convincingly, we're likely hitting $52,200 region to embrace a value gap. If that doesn't hold, I'm scared to think of it but that would be price going down further to $43,800.

I assume that there are some technical analyzes that "suggest" such a scenario, but at the moment it seems quite unconvincing to me that Bitcoin can lose more than 40% of its value in less than a month, given that the OP mentions the halving as the deadline. It seems to me that there are a lot of people who completely underestimated the effects of spot ETFs, and now they are persistently trying to reverse the price to fill their bags.

If it is to be judged by yesterday, ETFs inflows are returning to levels from before with the new 5900 BTC, and that will hopefully keep the price above $60 000 regardless of the Grayscale dumps.

[Finestream]

Don't always rely on instinct without analysis, because sometimes it will only be misleading. Try analyzing how Bitcoin's movement worked from before the ATH to reaching the current price. Bitcoin will break through an ATH that we have never seen before, this is a bull market that many have been waiting for. The crypto market will also be influenced by fundamentals with some FUD and News continuing to come, manipulation always occurs and this is done repeatedly.

Instincts could somehow be true or not, but one thing is certain, if you do it mixed with good analysis, you will come up with a more reliable prediction. However, when it comes to bitcoin’s volatility, no one gets certain whether the current price would be the last rise, or there would be another rise that will appear in the market. But if we look at its previous bitcoin halving, there might be surprising highs and lows that will suddenly appear in the market, and all we have to do is to prepare for it and not fall from FUDs and FOMO that may lead to panic selling.

[YOSHIE]

Do you have some psychological intake or some personal opinion in related to my emotion?

We all must have emotions or speculation based on our own instincts, this is a sign that it is normal to think about the development of Bitcoin in the market, Everyone has their own right to assess the current and future price of Bitcoin, whether after the halving occurs or before.

Currently we can find various speculations on the internet, it is purely based on their own thoughts, just like you, so the question is....!
• Have you bought and stored Bitcoin, at what price did you buy it and how much do you have, don't answer, you just need to know that yourself.

It's useless to talk about halving or ATH, if we don't have Bitcoin for now, what's the benefit if we don't save before the value of Bitcoin is valued at $70k or $100k, lucky for anyone to have Bitcoin.

[Nrcewker]

Until and unless we reach the halving, we will see many fluctuations in the price. And for me that’s normal. The price is fluctuating due to the miners and the traders. If more people are buying the coins, they are increasing the demand for Bitcoins and as bitcoins are limited in numbers, hence the price goes up. The reverse happens when they sell the coins and hence we are seeing so many up and downs in the price.

[STT]

Its been doing well over the last day up until about New York open on main markets and its plunged back to where we were.  Its still above a support level so could just be turbulence but you can never be totally sure it'll perform how you expect.  

If we maintain above 63k I'll stay positive in my outlook for BTC, thats the bulk of the move we have in the last month and about the lowest prices of mid March when it could have turned negative but reassumed the near highs.    Seems there is resistance about 71.8k and it'll be surer when we have beaten that level and have it as support only seen in the lows of BTC price action.

BTC might need to keep repeating despite the bright lights of the halvening being so close its not an immediately bullish situation.  Any price in this region is good overall.

[BABY SHOES]

Your instinct tells me differently, okey you might be able to say it's ATH before the last halving but my instinct for the next cycle is still very likely to repeat the same - ATH before halving.

Actually we don't know what happens in the future, now I'm just mentioning a new record where bitcoin ATH before halving, this is also another factor of course if there is no event that supports it then the price will not touch ATH now.

Even for the next cycle bitcoin will be much developed, what if the adoption has started to run for some institutions? This may happen again where ATH was before the halving.

[beerlover]

From many analyst speculating that bitcoin price could get to $150k and while there are some people who are optimistic that price could get to $500k after halving but I don't see that coming though we can't give exactly what the price may falls out to be  but seeing that bitcoin has created new ATH even before halving is what kept many investor baffling and on suspend without going further to give the next out come what it could be. As holder just keep holding your investment without panicking because I know lots of people are panicking currently without knowing the next movement of bitcoin.

I could say that 150k is definitely possible because it is not "that" high, we are talking about another double and it will be around that level anyway, considering where we are right now and how we are expecting a bull run, having the price doubled wouldn't be all that weird. However, when we are talking about 500k, that is basically 7 times higher than what we have right now, doesn't mean that it's impossible, it just means that it wouldn't be all that simple and could make it a little harder to handle.

This is why I believe that the best thing to do in this case would be just having some trouble in the end. I believe that we could see it grow, and may make a lot of money for us but probably not 500k, that's just way too much.

[Gozie51]

Do you have some psychological intake or some personal opinion in related to my emotion?

Well I will not be surprised if it doesn't rise again to that level until halving. My own emotion is that the price have actually risen far above my expectations and market expectation for the history of bitcoin. However, it seems this halving is really going to change the fortune of the crypto market and making investors have lots of benefits with the way it broke previous ATH before halving because this is the first time I have noticed this happening. The reason for this is hodlers are really expecting much this season and they are hodling tight.

[Ndabagi01]

I don't mean to predict the market cap price but my conscience whispers to me that the current rise up again or bitcoin would be the last rise before halving.
As at the time of making this thread,  the price was $70K + which we're aware that it formally broke its ATH even when itsy not yet at the bull run before it depreciated again but my instincts is whispering me that this current up rise again would be the last rise before halving.

Do you have some psychological intake or some personal opinion in related to my emotion?

Your thoughts may be correct, but the market is extremely unpredictable, and external factors may cause your analysis to fail. I know your prediction is what many other people will say about the market and what they expect before it halved. Since a dip to $63K, the price has been unable to break above $70K after a repulsive spike in the market, indicating a resistance at that point and a possible breakthrough at that point only after halving.

[kamvreto]

Instincts could somehow be true or not, but one thing is certain, if you do it mixed with good analysis, you will come up with a more reliable prediction. However, when it comes to bitcoin’s volatility, no one gets certain whether the current price would be the last rise, or there would be another rise that will appear in the market. But if we look at its previous bitcoin halving, there might be surprising highs and lows that will suddenly appear in the market, and all we have to do is to prepare for it and not fall from FUDs and FOMO that may lead to panic selling.

Panic selling will only happen to those who don't have a basic guideline or strategy as to why they should hold on and buy more when it goes down. Fundamentals and a combination of analysis will give you an idea of ​​how the market will move, beginners must know that so they can prepare themselves to face the market without panic. FUD and FOMO will only come in turns, this can be utilized well and don't get caught in between.

[Hamphser]

I don't mean to predict the market cap price but my conscience whispers to me that the current rise up again or bitcoin would be the last rise before halving.
As at the time of making this thread,  the price was $70K + which we're aware that it formally broke its ATH even when itsy not yet at the bull run before it depreciated again but my instincts is whispering me that this current up rise again would be the last rise before halving.

Do you have some psychological intake or some personal opinion in related to my emotion?

Instincts,intuition,inner voices,guts etc.. or whatsoever. These are the things that us normal people would really be having specially on dealing up into something on which we do know that it could bring out
those kind of assumptions basing up in what we do observe or been wary about those probabilities but of course you would really be still needing to get in line into those things which you could
really be able to do something like having some application of analysis.Its really that something that too risky if you do really find yourself on trusting up with those those intuition of yours but since
we are dealing with crypto market or with Bitcoins price then it could really shoot up or drop into those prices that we arent that expecting.

The key on here is that when it comes to halving period then we might be seeing prices which might be considered up to be the floor.

[Maslate]

The price is regulary going up and down so its not a bad thing but we are getting opportunity to collect even more coins according to our target. Bitcoin once again touched the value of 71k$ but suddenly it returned back to 69k$ but it is not the last increase.

People have targeted the value of bitcoin to attain 100k$ and they will not sell their bitcoin before that value and if selling remains down then very soon we will see this targeted value. When bitcoin was down to 61k$ after 73k$ then people thought in similar way that Bull season become end but you can see that still we are in Bull season and once again bitcoin hit 70k$.

Expect that when the market turns bullish, price fluctuations become more visible as there are times that bitcoin price suddenly rise or make a sudden price decline. I guess that’s part of the trend having a bullish market. But as long as you keep your faith in hodling and expect that there will be more price increase that’s about to happen, then you will never be at loss. I can see that $70k or $71k is not the last price but we will see more price increase before bitcoin halving and bull run.

[Wiwo]

Since you mentioned that you made the statement based on your emotions, make it clear that you are speaking based on unflunce which may have come from recent price actions and I won't blame you for making that statement of having a stable price until after the halving, even though we can't give it a 100% go for that to happen but we can loudly say that we have overcome the worst stage of the market where there be heavy volatility

We may also likely see another all time price break out and that will come along the line when we happen to fine any chance for the market breakout before the main event.

[wxa7115]

I don't mean to predict the market cap price but my conscience whispers to me that the current rise up again or bitcoin would be the last rise before halving.
As at the time of making this thread,  the price was $70K + which we're aware that it formally broke its ATH even when itsy not yet at the bull run before it depreciated again but my instincts is whispering me that this current up rise again would be the last rise before halving.

Do you have some psychological intake or some personal opinion in related to my emotion?

The halving is already very close so I speculate it is possible the price will remain close to where it is already, since I believe many traders will like to see the behavior of the market and how it reacts to the halving.

But while your prediction could be correct, I do not see why it is important for you, are you planning to make a big movement and buy bitcoin during that time or something? Because if that is not the case then why care about what it may happen during the next weeks, as we have almost all the bull market ahead of us.

[El duderino_]

I don't mean to predict the market cap price but my conscience whispers to me that the current rise up again or bitcoin would be the last rise before halving.
As at the time of making this thread,  the price was $70K + which we're aware that it formally broke its ATH even when itsy not yet at the bull run before it depreciated again but my instincts is whispering me that this current up rise again would be the last rise before halving.

Do you have some psychological intake or some personal opinion in related to my emotion?

Everyone who's says that is just an emotional talker... hoping for a rise before the halving but writing it wil not reach another ATH before the halving just to get some reactions of people who will write there thinking it will reach some new ATH's to feel more comfort for themselves.

Just let it goes no one can predict when we lift off or go down...

to many BTC'ers are focussing on the noise which others are writing.

If one just knows BTC and what there holding is the main thing to have then the rest is just noise.

Focus and learning is the key.

[aoluain]

(....)
Do you have some psychological intake or some personal opinion in related to my emotion?

For me, even before, I already thought that on every Bitcoin block halving, we do create a new all-time high, and the rally will always start before the day of the Bitcoin block halving - then we already experienced this, so for me, my target is already achieved.

Next for me is price discovery, since we have a new all-time high, we don't know where will be the resistance of the current cycle, no limitation. This time is crucial, high risk high reward.

Thats pretty much where I stand also, the big run up to a new ATH was kind of unprecedented
and unexpected somewhat by me early on. The Bitcoin market from the halving and after passing
the ATH will be charting new territories - very exciting.

Instincts could somehow be true or not, but one thing is certain, if you do it mixed with good analysis, you will come up with a more reliable prediction. However, when it comes to bitcoin’s volatility, no one gets certain whether the current price would be the last rise, or there would be another rise that will appear in the market. But if we look at its previous bitcoin halving, there might be surprising highs and lows that will suddenly appear in the market, and all we have to do is to prepare for it and not fall from FUDs and FOMO that may lead to panic selling.

Panic selling will only happen to those who don't have a basic guideline or strategy as to why they should hold on and buy more when it goes down. Fundamentals and a combination of analysis will give you an idea of ​​how the market will move, beginners must know that so they can prepare themselves to face the market without panic. FUD and FOMO will only come in turns, this can be utilized well and don't get caught in between.

There may be a lot of shorting happening ATM with the expectations that there will be a panic sell
off around the halving. I know its not panic selling but if those short trades get realised it will
cause a further dip and could then lead to panic selling. Who know's?

[EarnOnVictor]

-snip-
Do you have some psychological intake or some personal opinion in related to my emotion?

You seem to be mistaking some words as you misused conscience and emotion here, they are used for different purposes in the market in relation to trader's psychology. You might probably want to use instinct in their stead, regardless, traders should be more practical than psychological/emotional about the market. I advise you to always talk to your trading chart and make adequate analysis to weigh the economic data/events surrounding the asset you are dealing with rather than resolving to your feelings alone, this has always put a lot of traders in trouble. Fine, our instinct can tell us something, but have you used the fundamental happenings around Bitcoin and its chart conditions to back it up? That's how a true trader should think, we shouldn't just act blindly based on how we feel.

As it is, I will not predict anything serious before halving but just follow what my trading chart tells me even as I manage my portfolio correctly. Yet, the only thing I can see for now since the market is even getting more unpredictable daily is the $67,629 of TrendMagic. The level has been so helpful in making me gain from Bitcoin these days. I easily get between 250-350 pips from it using only that level as a reference point, and with the use of the price action in addition.

However, at present, since the market is above the level, I am still bullish today until further notice.

[Marvell1]

I don't mean to predict the market cap price but my conscience whispers to me that the current rise up again or bitcoin would be the last rise before halving.
As at the time of making this thread,  the price was $70K + which we're aware that it formally broke its ATH even when itsy not yet at the bull run before it depreciated again but my instincts is whispering me that this current up rise again would be the last rise before halving.

Do you have some psychological intake or some personal opinion in related to my emotion?

I agree with you, we will see a sharp increase in bitcoin price to welcome the halving. Bitcoin has recovered and at one point surpassed $71k, however in the past 2 days it is having a slight correction but it is a healthy correction in preparation for the next price increase. I believe that bitcoin will make new ATHs before and after the halving, and people continue to have more confidence in the impact of the halving causing bitcoin to increase in price.

When everyone is going crazy over the rising price of bitcoin and expecting higher increases is also the time when market makers dump the price of bitcoin. Market makers will reuse the same script they used when news broke of an ETF being approved.