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Author Topic: Bitcoin halving, how low the price can be?  (Read 684 times)
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March 26, 2024, 01:45:57 AM
 #1

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?
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March 26, 2024, 08:36:52 AM
 #2

Let's use PlanB prediction, the floor price he estimates might be around $49K-$55K and it might cross $532K during bull run. If you ask about the price during halving event, probably went a bit and then we might suffer a little drop.

between $49k-$55k based on STH

Plan B acknowledges that there are error bands in the S2F model, but he believes that the price of Bitcoin will reach $532,000 in 2025.


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March 26, 2024, 08:49:32 AM
 #3

Let's use PlanB prediction, the floor price he estimates might be around $49K-$55K and it might cross $532K during bull run. If you ask about the price during halving event, probably went a bit and then we might suffer a little drop.

between $49k-$55k based on STH

Plan B acknowledges that there are error bands in the S2F model, but he believes that the price of Bitcoin will reach $532,000 in 2025.

The thing with PlanB is that his S2F modelling was already exposed to be flawed, as his modelling predicted that we will reach $100k from last bull run and it didn't happen. And so maybe some of his followers might not "believed" what he had to see again.

Well we have seen that we reach new all time high already at $73k.

And so it could be the floor price already. And again if S2F estimates it to be around $49K-$55K, then it could be wrong again. But PlanB can readjust it again to fit his narratives, just saying.

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March 26, 2024, 08:52:56 AM
 #4

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?
This topic is supposed to be dropped at the speculation board because it's about predictions (up and down of price). If you really know what halving is you understand that is a process where it divides the process of Bitcoin mining in halve. I haven't witnessed any halving because I am new to crypto currency but I hope this ones becomes a good experience to me and those that's new to crypto currency.
Bitcoin halving circle happeneds each 4 years (from what I have read). 3 halving has passed from 2016, 2016, 2020 now we want to experience another halving that will make it the 4th halving.
I can't really tell about how low or how high the price might be.

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March 26, 2024, 09:05:43 AM
 #5

Let's use PlanB prediction, the floor price he estimates might be around $49K-$55K and it might cross $532K during bull run. If you ask about the price during halving event, probably went a bit and then we might suffer a little drop.
Plan B's model, S2F, fails with its price forecast last cycle. It fails to predict the top of last cycle.

I would choose a better indicator, that points the top of last cycle correctly. Pi Cycle top indicator.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

I will check Realized price too
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/realized-price/

I always keep my eyes on Fear and Greed index.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/

And lastly Google Trend on Bitcoin.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin&hl=en

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March 26, 2024, 09:43:12 AM
 #6

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

As you know we are already in the bullrun season for bitcoin, we cannot be precise on how or when the market price go go high or low, but have this as a constant expectation with the market that we may not go as low as $50,000 and expect as high as $150,000 between now and next year after which we had the halving next month, if you invested, you will definitely experience the bull run coming further with new all time highs and be profitable in your bitcoin investments.

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March 26, 2024, 09:50:55 AM
 #7

You really want to find this out? Because I don't, there is no way you can be perfect with the bottom or the top, it's just too much of a worry for me.

Instead I choose to be ready for both sides, have you bought some Bitcoin already? There lord, there was a lot of time to have done this already, the 17k the 15k? No excuse about missing buying the dip unless you are too greedy.

I already have some Bitcoin and I have positioned myself with some USDT, waiting on some possible dump and I will go right in, if it doesn't come then I will ride up with my Bitcoin.

Forget what the price may be, get ready for both.

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March 26, 2024, 02:38:53 PM
 #8

Let's use PlanB prediction, the floor price he estimates might be around $49K-$55K and it might cross $532K during bull run. If you ask about the price during halving event, probably went a bit and then we might suffer a little drop.

between $49k-$55k based on STH

Plan B acknowledges that there are error bands in the S2F model, but he believes that the price of Bitcoin will reach $532,000 in 2025.

The prediction of planB? For that take it from me, the minimum is $0 and the maximum is $1T per bitcoin for the next cycle. With that prediction I'm sure I'm not wrong and so I don't have to keep rephrasing the theory when the data doesn't match what I predict, like he does. I don't even know how you continue to listen to him.

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March 26, 2024, 03:50:12 PM
 #9

how far can the price go down?
The prices may never get as low as we saw them some months ago, those times were very good opportunity to buy and those time may never come again. The prices will go down and present a little opportunity for some people to buy, but the opportunity will never be as good as what was missed.
how high can the price go up?
It is difficult for anybody to give an exact number, but the prices are expected to go high.

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March 26, 2024, 04:24:25 PM
 #10

Well, that's the thing that anyone is not sure about, because there is no specific or 100% prediction on whatthe price of bitcoin will be after the halving, but one thing is for sure: the halving will causeafter the halving, but one thing is for sure: the halving will causeafter the halving, but one thing is for sure: the halving will cause the price of bitcoin to surge even more as many people are buying more bitcoin in preparation for the bull run. Of course, we are still not sure, but as long as we want, we want bitcoin to keep on increasing in price. I know there's still a need balance so we can see and experience price drops or dips, but we can see that as an opportunity to bring bitcoin at a low price. Or we could do DCA for the series of dips when it happens during or after halving. Anyway,  I'm sure all of us are very excited about what the next result of bitcoin will be.

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March 26, 2024, 04:25:48 PM
 #11

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?
That's a good question, The price of BTC will start to go up and make new ATH and break the older ones many times, but if we consider the CPI data and integrate the inflation impact on the BTC price, it says BTC has to cross $77k because today's $77k will be equals to the last cycle's ATh ($69k). So I am considering this time the price of BTC will go higher than $77k. Well, at least that's what I am predicting.

Some people are predicting that the price of BTC might go down after the halving, I was also convinced to such predictions, but as halving is coming near, and I am seeing the real potential of BTC and demand as well, I can say for like %80 that BTC won't go down, but will go up even after the halving. I might be wrong so DYOR and don't take my prediction as guaranteed.

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March 26, 2024, 05:38:11 PM
 #12

Let's use PlanB prediction, the floor price he estimates might be around $49K-$55K and it might cross $532K during bull run. If you ask about the price during halving event, probably went a bit and then we might suffer a little drop.

between $49k-$55k based on STH

Plan B acknowledges that there are error bands in the S2F model, but he believes that the price of Bitcoin will reach $532,000 in 2025.




lol a great way to know not to trust someone is when they say Bitcoin is gonna hit half a million this bull run  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Half a million dollars will probably most likely be hit for the first time in 2032 bull run. That's a lot of years away.





Anyway, now way to know what the price will be during the halving, all we can say is a new bull market is starting so in the months to come the price is going to be a lot higher than it is now.
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March 26, 2024, 05:52:04 PM
 #13

Let's use PlanB prediction, the floor price he estimates might be around $49K-$55K and it might cross $532K during bull run. If you ask about the price during halving event, probably went a bit and then we might suffer a little drop.

between $49k-$55k based on STH

Plan B acknowledges that there are error bands in the S2F model, but he believes that the price of Bitcoin will reach $532,000 in 2025.

lol a great way to know not to trust someone is when they say Bitcoin is gonna hit half a million this bull run  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Half a million dollars will probably most likely be hit for the first time in 2032 bull run. That's a lot of years away.

Anyway, now way to know what the price will be during the halving, all we can say is a new bull market is starting so in the months to come the price is going to be a lot higher than it is now.

even the last time they predicted B TC to go $100K in 2021 didn't happen. we know now that they are just hyping all these to get more people into crypto market. it's working though and i guess we just need to be part of it and hype this thing to hit that price too. we are all in this together you know.  Grin

if i have to predict how low the price will be is probably the same as they say, maybe around $52k since that's where the support line is. i'm not good at predicting also so i could be wrong.









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March 26, 2024, 05:53:30 PM
 #14

It's very difficult to answer this question, anything can happen, it can go up, it can fall, it can go sideways... You need to stick to the fundamentals and always buy little by little, once a week is a good strategy.

After all, you still don't know how to swim, why dive into the deep end of the pool? Enter the water little by little, start at the edges, just put your foot in...then go to the shallower parts, learn to swim first for bigger dives.

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March 26, 2024, 05:56:25 PM
 #15

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down?
No one has the right answer on this one and we can always say that it can range from $10k-$20k.

or how high can the price go up?
As for this range, it can be from $100k-$500k. That's why no one really has the right answer for this one and with Bitcoin's volatility, any price can be of possibility and only time can tell on what price it is going to be soon. While you've asked this question, are you prepared for any of those possible high prices soon and you've got some holdings already? if still none, start doing DCA.

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March 26, 2024, 06:09:19 PM
 #16

We already have a bull market in bitcoin, price of bitcoin is above 70k at the moment, if the price of bitcoin goes down in next bitcoin halving then it can go down to minimum 50k, I think it will not be less. Whether the price of Bitcoin goes up or down, we must always be prepared, if you invest in Bitcoin now, you will definitely experience an all-time high. Just hold for long term, you will definitely get profit from this investment.

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March 26, 2024, 06:15:25 PM
 #17

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?
You shouldn't get bothered as to what the price of Bitcoin would do in the short term if you are thinking about the long term, all you have to do is just get yourself ready for either ways, up or down and this should be base on on your plan of investment in Bitcoin,  and besides everything is made easier with DCA, keep aside some funds and split your capital into small portions to buy whilst Bitcoin gets dips in the price ,this way you won't miss out on opportunities to accumulate, though this is the first time we've Seen Bitcoin create a new ATH before Halving, maybe this suggests what's big ahead as we have had more institutional interest this cycle.

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March 26, 2024, 06:49:41 PM
 #18

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

I honestly doesnt have any idea on what going to happen in the market on Bitcoin halving, in my theory it would probably be the safe in the past Bitcoin halving for sure the market price is going to drop down a huge percentage, but honestly, it might that be the case this one, it was surely evident but there was no way to accurately predict the market in this situation, it's still kinda new to a lot of people so market patterns could easily change for sure, it's just that easy to relay on patterns.

My best guess here is the market price is going to drop I could hope back to 25k$ probably, the market is just too high at the moment, most of the traders that are in the market doesnt have any idea they just go in because of FOMO and it was pretty common where newbies are going to think that Bitcoin is unstoppable and just gonna continue to skyrocket to the point where nothing can stop it, you're a fool if you think that way, the higher the market price increase that higher the chance that the bubble is going to explode market could easily experience a huge correction where market price could drop a huge amount in just a short amount of time.

The still best strategy is still going to be Dollar Cost Averaging, I've sold some of my holdings, because for sure it might take a long time again if the market drops its going to be a long time to recover again from that drop, gaining profit is going to be reasonable every time.

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March 26, 2024, 07:03:32 PM
 #19

I always keep my eyes on Fear and Greed index.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/
This is the craziest level I've seen of Bitcoin in its circle. At the moment it's over 80% and the
https://feargreedmeter.com which I use calls it Extreme Greed. The market is very much active and excited.

even the last time they predicted B TC to go $100K in 2021 didn't happen. we know now that they are just hyping all these to get more people into crypto market. it's working though and i guess we just need to be part of it and hype this thing to hit that price too. we are all in this together you know.  Grin
No one holds the holy grail when it comes to speculation. It's either below the mark or above it. If there's a target hit, then it's pure luck. I don't believe anyone knows exactly where price will be this bull run to hit ATH, we can only speculate. On the part of getting more people onboard the crypto space as you alleged of PlanB, I don't think it's so. If there's anything, making a prediction puts its reputation on the line. Just like it's doing now after the failed one in 2021.

Quote
if i have to predict how low the price will be is probably the same as they say, maybe around $52k since that's where the support line is. i'm not good at predicting also so i could be wrong.
If we hit $100k before halving, I don't see price crashing and losing almost 50% which will be what $52k would be. $100k could be possible. It's just more $30k to go. In this industry, everything is possible. However, if we only get between $70k–$80k, then $52k dump is more likely after halving.

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March 26, 2024, 07:13:14 PM
 #20

So far bitcoin has dropped to $62K - Then after halving $100K it is uncertain we cannot predict we will still look forward to bullishness.

There will be many predictions from famous people who come out they are like real forecasters, we follow the flow they say but I don't fully believe even if later bitcoin suppose to $200K then it's good the price is so high from the previous ATH.

I don't think bitcoin will retreat further, the bubble will still be seen with a strong wave after the halving then that will be the moment to see the price continue to rise.

The important thing is that I have bought the $70K price and see the next price.

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