Bitcoin Forum
December 11, 2016, 08:19:45 AM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: This lack of volatility almost makes Bitcoin look... civilized  (Read 3079 times)
evoorhees
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 994


Democracy is the original 51% attack


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 05:03:39 AM
 #1

The past week has been remarkably calm, with the price sticking in $3.16-$3.21. It "feels" calmer than I've ever seen it. It's almost as if... dare I say... the marketplace has found an appropriate price given the current economy + NPV of future economy.

It's almost like Bitcoin has become... a civilized asset.

Certainly, it won't stay like this. But, I must say I'm enjoying this current oasis. RIM, gold, and the EUR have been more wild in recent days.

That such a speculative asset like a bitcoin can enjoy stable value - if only for a matter of days - is quite remarkable.

Thoughts?
1481444385
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481444385

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481444385
Reply with quote  #2

1481444385
Report to moderator
1481444385
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481444385

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481444385
Reply with quote  #2

1481444385
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481444385
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481444385

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481444385
Reply with quote  #2

1481444385
Report to moderator
zhoutong
VIP
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 490


View Profile WWW
December 18, 2011, 05:07:21 AM
 #2

This is definitely remarkable, but I'm sure it's temporary too.

Bitcoin can almost never gain stability unless: 1) the price rises to above $100, or 2) it dies.

The potential instability is still there until the price is high enough to push market cap to an astronomical number.

Founder of NameTerrific (https://www.nameterrific.com/). Co-founder of CoinJar (https://coinjar.io/)

Donations for my future Bitcoin projects: 19Uk3tiD5XkBcmHyQYhJxp9QHoub7RosVb
bittenbob
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 560


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 05:08:01 AM
 #3

I believe we have reached the area of true value for Bitcoin. I don't expect to see any major bubbles unless something happens. I also do not expect any sustained values below $3 for longer than a day in the foreseeable future. From the moving averages it really appears we have hit a bottom or market reversal. I am more inclined to believe we will stay around the current price for the near term.
ineededausername
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 784


bitcoin hundred-aire


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 05:09:55 AM
 #4

You're reading too much into this.  Look at the volumes:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
People are leaving for the holidays... anyone see those straight lines on mtgoxlive?
When all the traders and speculators come back, we'll see real price movement again. 

(BFL)^2 < 0
old_engineer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 387


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 05:24:42 AM
 #5

It is nice.  There is precedent though, as stability like this happened once before in July, with a similar percentage range:



What happens next depends on the next big player: is it someone dumping another 20k coins, or buying up 20k coins?
I could see price dropping to $2.5 again, or jumping to $4.
ineededausername
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 784


bitcoin hundred-aire


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 05:32:44 AM
 #6

It is nice.  There is precedent though, as stability like this happened once before in July, with a similar percentage range:



What happens next depends on the next big player: is it someone dumping another 20k coins, or buying up 20k coins?
I could see price dropping to $2.5 again, or jumping to $4.


Dumping 20k? Still stable at 3.10.
In fact dumping 40k would take us to 3.00.
60k would take us to 2.95.  Still within sight of $3.

On the other hand, buying 20k would take us to 3.35.  Buying 40k... 3.75. Smiley

(BFL)^2 < 0
adamstgBit
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1904


Trusted Bitcoiner


View Profile WWW
December 18, 2011, 06:04:42 AM
 #7

You're reading too much into this.  Look at the volumes:
People are leaving for the holidays... anyone see those straight lines on mtgoxlive?
When all the traders and speculators come back, we'll see real price movement again.  

I like this explanation, the speculator are taking a 2 week break...
Question now becomes where they holding coins or USD b4 leaving?  Tongue

I'd like to think we've had stable prices because there is a lot of poeple buying things with their bitcoins

customer buys bitcoins at market rate and buys a gift with bitcoins right way
merchant sells the bitcoins at market rate right away

if enough of this is going on... the current price wtv it may be, is supported & stabilized.

I really should buy some bitcoins just to buy gifts.... i like buying things with my visa card because i get 1% cash back  Tongue

netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 06:32:58 AM
 #8

customer buys bitcoins at market rate and buys a gift with bitcoins right way
merchant sells (keeps) the bitcoins

My sales have gone up quite a bit in the past month. Some newbies ask if I'll accept PayPal, etc, to which I answer 'no'. They go off to convert paper to digital and the economy grows. I presume other merchants will say the same.

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
DarkEmi
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 215


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 08:07:00 AM
 #9

My opinion :

When bitcoin had more variance, there was a lot of people dumping coin (omg ! i am rich !) and a lot of people randomly buying the most coin they could with the bandwagon, without paying too much attention to the price.

I believe a lot of those coins are now in the hands of market makers and that the float (the coins and $ available for trade on the market) has increased as well. So now someone dumping 20k randomly in a panick movement doesn't have an huge effect anymore.

So now we should except less volatility : with enough speculators, day like we seen some time ago where the price did 30 => 9 => 25 seems almost impossible. Those were merely possible because "traders" (lets say : THE MANIPULATOR) weren't a great part of the market.

In my opinion bitcoin was and still is a traders dream : Very low trading fees and insane volatility (usually), what trader wouldnt want that ?

Of course "real" traders (ie those with banks funds or their own assets, called "proprietary traders") are largely a legend, 98% of them are merely orders followers for clients and salesmen ("buy me this or this").
I just think there is enough small-time speculators wanting in for a profit.

Well.. that or the manipulator is tricking us for his next scheme  Wink

speculate on the mtgox price - http://www.btcoracle.com/
buy Mastercoin - http://masterxchange.com
DarkEmi
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 215


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 08:09:01 AM
 #10

But i think we are moving towards UP. The speculators-wall are moving from 3.X onto 3.10 and lower as they are downed.

We can see that most of the trades these last days are onto the ask side.

Hopefully we can keep at 3 (or even better lower xD) for a few month still I have more coins to buy Smiley

speculate on the mtgox price - http://www.btcoracle.com/
buy Mastercoin - http://masterxchange.com
edd
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372



View Profile WWW
December 18, 2011, 08:18:54 AM
 #11

customer buys bitcoins at market rate and buys a gift with bitcoins right way
merchant sells (keeps) the bitcoins

My sales have gone up quite a bit in the past month. Some newbies ask if I'll accept PayPal, etc, to which I answer 'no'. They go off to convert paper to digital and the economy grows. I presume other merchants will say the same.

Ditto.

Still around.
da2ce7
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1218


Live and Let Live


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 10:46:45 AM
 #12

Anecdotally, I have been talking to quite a few of the established bitcoin-shops; it seems that buying volume is has been slowly increasing over the last month.

I really am thinking that it will take more and more bitcoin to drop the price back down to 2.5  At some point it will take such a large % of the total market cap to shift the price large amounts.

Ideally we want the collected order-books to have move than the total issued Bitcoin holdings… so we know if every Bitcoin was spent how far the price would drop. (Not that would ever happen).

One off NP-Hard.
P4man
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 504



View Profile
December 18, 2011, 12:30:27 PM
 #13

Its as stable as this:


All it needs is a small push in either direction and then the speculation will take off again, because bitcoin is inherently instable, certainly the way its currently used (ie, hardly used, mostly hoarded and speculated with).

proudhon
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1148



View Profile
December 18, 2011, 01:40:29 PM
 #14

Its as stable as this:


All it needs is a small push in either direction and then the speculation will take off again, because bitcoin is inherently instable, certainly the way its currently used (ie, hardly used, mostly hoarded and speculated with).

+1
ineededausername
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 784


bitcoin hundred-aire


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 02:54:20 PM
 #15

Its as stable as this:


All it needs is a small push in either direction and then the speculation will take off again, because bitcoin is inherently instable, certainly the way its currently used (ie, hardly used, mostly hoarded and speculated with).

+1

+1 again.  We've seen metastability before Smiley

(BFL)^2 < 0
Vandroiy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1036


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 03:59:57 PM
 #16

I don't think the image is right. We're already converging into some direction, we just don't know which yet. The system has become larger, it now has a massive amount of inertia.

That said, a little punch into either direction will not cause sudden accelerated hyper-huge movement. Yes, we may see another correction one way or the other, but I doubt we'll see positive feedback loops at the speed we had before. Remember that a good bit of immaturity has been purged from the market by now; people think twice before hopping onto a trend now.

It's good. Things have turned out quite well. Unless there's a catastrophe around the corner, Bitcoin has achieved an unprecedented state of maturity; software support is better, sensitivity to larger orders was reduced, volatility is lower. A more liquid, more robust market than before.

Let's wait for the whole stuff to settle, until the new year begins. If things are still as sane then, we have reason to celebrate.
RodeoX
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114


The revolution will be monetized!


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 04:40:32 PM
 #17

I'm not entirely convinced of the Holliday theory. I will out of the USA during the holidays. But I will still be checking prices and buying, if a deal is to be found.

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Free bitcoin=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1610684
adamstgBit
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1904


Trusted Bitcoiner


View Profile WWW
December 18, 2011, 04:42:57 PM
 #18


JohnOliver
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 28


View Profile
December 18, 2011, 09:59:57 PM
 #19


A rollercoaster building its own tracks? That's...that's just like the blockchain!
cloon
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 387



View Profile
December 18, 2011, 10:09:36 PM
 #20

I'm not entirely convinced of the Holliday theory. I will out of the USA during the holidays. But I will still be checking prices and buying, if a deal is to be found.
+1 so, what are you waiting for? buy, and the rainbow will shine! ;-)

donations to 13zWUMSHA7AzGjqWmJNhJLYZxHmjNPKduY
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!