Bitcoin and global tensions!

[pooya87]

A little context:
As I'm typing this according to article 51 of United Nations Charter, Armed Forces of Iran is responding to the terrorist attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria earlier this month by bombing Israel, a designated terrorist organization that has also been committing genocide in Gaza for the past 190 days.

Once again the weak hands in the Bitcoin Market are overreacting to the overly hyped up reports by mainstream media and panic selling their bitcoin. So far they've only caused a 9-10% drop which was also partly recovered by going back up to around $65k.
However, this raises the question of how suitable Bitcoin is in times of increased global tensions? This is while I wouldn't even categorize this as a significant tension, this is something that may not even last more than 24 hours. This is also happening at the time when both oil and gold are soaring due to the same increased tensions. By all logic bitcoin price should have soared over the past couple of hours instead of dropping.

In my opinion panic sells like this are telling us that the market has not yet reached the maturity that we'd hoped for but at the same time the fact that the size of the panic sell is not as big as what would have been 5-10 years ago says there is still some hope as we are on the right path.

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[Jawhead999]

Most people still didn't see Bitcoin as their safest asset to hold, so they treat Bitcoin as trading, whenever it reach or down at certain price, they will sell/buy instead of holding.

They prefer to convert their asset to WTI, XAU or even USD since they believe those are immutable and less volatility.

It's really hard for Bitcoin reach maturity level, if most people still don't know why they buy Bitcoin (instead of price) and how to hold it safely (they still use centralized exchanges), what we can expect?

[Stablexcoin]

The bombing of Israel is very alarming. Of course, this situation may not be a major long-term concern, but it has influenced the volatility of the bitcoin price since Friday. Meanwhile, I see no reason why investors should be afraid because of such events. I only expect citizens of the country that is being affected by the bombing.

Also, the bombing may have triggered fear in investors and most of them started selling. Regardless it still does not negate Bitcoin's potential as a long-term asset. Bad news comes and goes but the value of Bitcoin remains for as long as I know. This is not the first time such economical and political news has affected the price of Bitcoin and it is not like we weren't aware that such events can influence Bitcoin before investing in it. A potential investor by now should be aware by now of the factors that may affect Bitcoin's price. 

You're right, the market is still maturing, and these reactions show there's room for growth in investor confidence.

[Lida93]

Once again the weak hands in the Bitcoin Market are overreacting to the overly hyped up reports by mainstream media and panic selling their bitcoin. So far they've only caused a 9-10% drop which was also partly recovered by going back up to around $65k.
However, this raises the question of how suitable Bitcoin is in times of increased global tensions? This is while I wouldn't even categorize this as a significant tension, this is something that may not even last more than 24 hours. This is also happening at the time when both oil and gold are soaring due to the same increased tensions. By all logic bitcoin price should have soared over the past couple of hours instead of dropping.

In my opinion panic sells like this are telling us that the market has not yet reached the maturity that we'd hoped for but at the same time the fact that the size of the panic sell is not as big as what would have been 5-10 years ago says there is still some hope as we are on the right path.

Within this 48hrs tension from the
Iran-Isreal conflict  here's what I learnt regarding bitcoin and it's adopters within this shortest time:

A large number of bitcoin holders don't understand the market that well as they claim to, and they are not holding bitcoin for it's other utilities than as just a means of making profit through it's volatility. And as a result there is an immature trust level from  especially the weak hands as they get consumed by FUD from the media.

Bitcoin is conventionally described as digital gold and if digital gold to it's adopters/holders, then it's rightfully expected that the market forces behind the soaring of oil and mostly traditional gold under this 24hr+  tension ought to have effected also in bitcoin price. However a price fall was what we all experienced, meaning that apart from bitcoin not reaching a preferably matured level it has also not gained so much wide range of trust as traditional gold. That's why any conflict of this nature in any part of the world will always have a reversal effect on bitcoin price not until it acquires and reaches that climax of trust and maturity as gold.

And I agree with Op that if it was to be a decade ago the percentage price fall experienced presently would have been far down than this, which is to say there is a progression and bitcoin will surely get there giving it time.

[bittraffic]

I think they are also converting to USD or hard local cash because it's the only medium they can use when the war breaks out. It's the only money they can use to buy stock they need for the preparation. People need to buy supplies and the prices till shoot to mars when war happens. This tension is somewhat going to this global conflict IMO. 

Although they are saying that the US will not take part in the tension between Iran and Israel, Netanyahu is sick in the head. This man is dragging everyone down with this tension.

[kentrolla]

I think they are also converting to USD or hard local cash because it's the only medium they can use when the war breaks out. It's the only money they can use to buy stock they need for the preparation. People need to buy supplies and the prices till shoot to mars when war happens. This tension is somewhat going to this global conflict IMO. 

Although they are saying that the US will not take part in the tension between Iran and Israel, Netanyahu is sick in the head. This man is dragging everyone down with this tension.

This makes sense as the priority for people at the time of possible war is to have enough funds to manage their food and shelter as they will be sticking up things because we all know how worst it gets. Netanyahu is sick sadist who has been killing innocents for years and US and UK are the biggest partner in his crime hence they will be equally responsible for the crimes.

[aoluain]

I can understand traders selling at a time like that, they are riding the FUD wave and would buy
back at the bottom or close to the bottom but yea weak hands and panic sellers will learn their
mistakes when they have to buy back at a higher price than they sold. It also means that those
people dont understand Bitcoin and or have very little faith in it.

News or FUD like just what happened doesnt affect seasoned Bitcoiners, "a lot of water has passed
under the Bitcoin bridge" at this stage this stuff doesnt affect the Bitcoin market in the long term.

[Moreno233]

I can understand traders selling at a time like that, they are riding the FUD wave and would buy
back at the bottom or close to the bottom but yea weak hands and panic sellers will learn their
mistakes when they have to buy back at a higher price than they sold. It also means that those
people dont understand Bitcoin and or have very little faith in it.

The question is: where is the bottom and when will price hit that number? Just days that the price started dropping, a lot of things has already happened. Price has hit $64k and reversed to over $66k at least a few times. The bottom seekers would have gotten in only to see price go lower and hitting $62k. Is this new number the bottom? What if price continues going lower? I see it as a very difficult task looking for the bottom and I have not seen any tool that is used to perfectly get the bottom.

News or FUD like just what happened doesnt affect seasoned Bitcoiners, "a lot of water has passed
under the Bitcoin bridge" at this stage this stuff doesnt affect the Bitcoin market in the long term.

I agree with you, it is always the weak hands that are in panic mode now. The real investors who see Bitcoin as a reliable asset will not panic over this minor drop in price of Bitcoin. I am also taking advantage of the drop to buy more Bitcoin now and that is one beautiful thing about the drop in price.

[Oasisman]

Once again the weak hands in the Bitcoin Market are overreacting to the overly hyped up reports by mainstream media and panic selling their bitcoin. So far they've only caused a 9-10% drop which was also partly recovered by going back up to around $65k.
However, this raises the question of how suitable Bitcoin is in times of increased global tensions? This is while I wouldn't even categorize this as a significant tension, this is something that may not even last more than 24 hours. This is also happening at the time when both oil and gold are soaring due to the same increased tensions. By all logic bitcoin price should have soared over the past couple of hours instead of dropping.

In my opinion panic sells like this are telling us that the market has not yet reached the maturity that we'd hoped for but at the same time the fact that the size of the panic sell is not as big as what would have been 5-10 years ago says there is still some hope as we are on the right path.

I don't know if there are different type of levels for the weak hands, but this one right here is just an example of a worst level of being a weak hand. Selling just because of the tension between 2-3 countries, which definitely is far from becoming the WW3, or maybe it has already started in their books LOL.
I understand that there might be a need to convert our assets into something valuable even during the time of chaos, but this tension right now were really over hype by the media and that would even make the tension even worse, but nah I don't think it could lead somewhere in a global scale all out war.
Weak hands might have sold because bitcoin still at a higher price and they thought it is the wise thing to do since they still get a profit somehow.

[Jating]

Isn't it ironic though that Bitcoin is being tested again and again?

2020 Bitcoin halving - we have the pandemic, worst than war, every country is in a lockdown but we survived, pushing for a all time high

2024 Bitcoin halving - geo-political tensions, we did reach all time high pre-halving, but still, with the looming war, how will Bitcoin react?

And I don't think that whatever is in the background or noises or going around the world, we will never reach that maturity. There are still investors who are going to panic sells and pushes the sell button. As there are people entering and exiting, so it's going to be a vicious cycle of newcomers getting rattled, going out and then replace by a new set of noobs who will do that same thing over and over again.

[EarnOnVictor]

A little context:
As I'm typing this according to article 51 of United Nations Charter, Armed Forces of Iran is responding to the terrorist attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria earlier this month by bombing Israel, a designated terrorist organization that has also been committing genocide in Gaza for the past 190 days.

Once again the weak hands in the Bitcoin Market are overreacting to the overly hyped up reports by mainstream media and panic selling their bitcoin. So far they've only caused a 9-10% drop which was also partly recovered by going back up to around $65k.
However, this raises the question of how suitable Bitcoin is in times of increased global tensions? This is while I wouldn't even categorize this as a significant tension, this is something that may not even last more than 24 hours. This is also happening at the time when both oil and gold are soaring due to the same increased tensions. By all logic bitcoin price should have soared over the past couple of hours instead of dropping.

In my opinion panic sells like this are telling us that the market has not yet reached the maturity that we'd hoped for but at the same time the fact that the size of the panic sell is not as big as what would have been 5-10 years ago says there is still some hope as we are on the right path.

Are you now calling Israel a terrorist? Then you are not being sincere. If your country faces what Israel faced in the hands of Palestinians/Hamas, I hope you would fold your hands and only watch. They've responded in a low magnitude in the past, but to what end? For Palestinians/Hamas to kill them overnight again? If this happened to your country, maybe you would understand their plight to now control that territory by force. As for Iran that you seem to be backing, they are the actual terrorists, as they've openly shown their support for Hamas and many other militants, terrorists, militias and whatever you can call them in the region. Israel might have been too reacting, which I do not like, but to have peace, they are trying what they believe is good for them. Some people don't feel some pain until they experience it, I don't blame them. Hamas should have thought of the humanitarian aspect rather than being blind with Iran's support before striking a country that could beat them multiple times over. What did you say when their backed terrorists were attaching and bombing the innocent ships across that region and attacking Israel's territory?

Some people don't talk about actions that backfire, it is the reaction caused by the action they talk about.

Anyway, that's by the way. As for Gold and Bitcoin, Gold is a safe-haven asset but Bitcoin is not. So we can expect Bitcoin to disappoint during a time of uncertainty (risk appetite). However, there is no escalation after the terrorist attack by Iran, and this could be the main reason why Bitcoin sold sharply days ago but has stabilized in the early time of today. However, contrary to what you said about Gold, it also sold sharply due to the news, only that Gold often recover in such a situation over time, this is even as it is still not able to recover fully yet. Hopefully, before the end of this week, it might have made a tangible recovery, and I don't exect less for Bitcoin as well because the tension is being doused already.

[STT]

I dont see it by way of the news especially, fighting isnt especially new though the severity of the engagement could be worse and on a trend towards full war.   Everyone knows thats a mistake but it may happen anyway.

I see BTC as taking a pullback that it required, revision of the prices is normal and helpful long term to improve support later on and volume at every price.  If you have a price that was never really traded with any volume it is a hole left as a weakness for the future so despite the appearance now of a sell it does involve some buyers also.   

We are below the 50 day average for 3 days now but its not certain we will continue to be negative especially as 62k is a relatively high place with the recent BTC price action.  We remain within the higher range for BTC.  If it just stays here I expect a recovery and resumption of the positive gains.

[Dave1]

I dont see it by way of the news especially, fighting isnt especially new though the severity of the engagement could be worse and on a trend towards full war.   Everyone knows thats a mistake but it may happen anyway.

I see BTC as taking a pullback that it required, revision of the prices is normal and helpful long term to improve support later on and volume at every price.  If you have a price that was never really traded with any volume it is a hole left as a weakness for the future so despite the appearance now of a sell it does involve some buyers also.   

We are below the 50 day average for 3 days now but its not certain we will continue to be negative especially as 62k is a relatively high place with the recent BTC price action.  We remain within the higher range for BTC.  If it just stays here I expect a recovery and resumption of the positive gains.

I will also go with your assumptions.

If we see the price going down way below the $62k threshold, then there is something new that we need to look at like global tensions. But if we look at it, the price is above, at $63k and I think we are all good by now, and maybe there is a recovery, although we are fast approaching halving and so it will have a big impact on the price regardless of the war between Israel and Iran and it's proxies.

[redsun114]

Some people are so vulnerable that they would sell at the slightest bad news they hear and any FUD that is spread around the industry or the world. I wonder why such people don't invest their money in things that have stable values most of the time and aren't as volatile as Bitcoin and why they don't do their research before they make their investments so that they would know the nature of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and that it is normal for them to lose and gain value since they are volatile.

If I have some money I want to invest somewhere to get some profit, I would surely do my research before deciding where the money should go, and if I'm not a fan of risks and know that I can't bear seeing my money losing value even for a slight moment, I wouldn't invest the money in cryptocurrencies.

[martinex]

If we see the price going down way below the $62k threshold, then there is something new that we need to look at like global tensions. But if we look at it, the price is above, at $63k and I think we are all good by now, and maybe there is a recovery, although we are fast approaching halving and so it will have a big impact on the price regardless of the war between Israel and Iran and it's proxies.

I also agree that although there has been a lot of Geo-political turmoil recently, I don't think it has too much impact on BTC price movements and indeed currently the price of BTC is in the price range of $62,700, but I am very sure this is only temporary where many describe that after the halving is over, the price will be much stronger and if we tie it to the previous halving moment, the journey is also identical.

This will be very interesting for us to follow. No need for complicated analysis, just play money management at a time like this and don't just go against the mainstream then wait for how the market responds after the hustle and bustle after this halving ends.

[pooya87]

Are you now calling Israel a terrorist? Then you are not being sincere. If your country faces what Israel faced in the hands of Palestinians/Hamas, I hope you would fold your hands and only watch.

Israel is not a country, it is a project and an occupying force that has taken over Palestine and has been actively committing genocide for decades, is globally condemned for it and crimes of apartheid, regularly commits acts of terrorism and assassinations overseas, regularly breaks international laws, and commits a wide variety of crimes against humanity.

You blame Palestinian resistance known as Hamas without knowing anything about the history. For example there were no Hamas when the Israeli terrorists slaughtered 6000 people in Sabra and Shatila in the 80's and even slaughtered the livestock and the birds in the sky!
There was no Hamas when the Israeli terrorists crushed the American activist Rachel Corrie with an armored bulldozer when she stood between them and the Palestinian homes they were demolishing with people inside.
...

This contains a disturbing image: https://euromedmonitor.org/en/article/6202/Israeli-tanks-have-deliberately-run-over-dozens-of-Palestinian-civilians-alive
But you need to see it if you still don't think Israel is a terrorist organization. I personally don't know any normal human beings that would take hostages, tie their hands behind their backs with zip-ties and then drive over them with a tank, legs first, for increased and prolonged agony.

I also don't know any normal human beings that has been regularly taking hostages, harvesting their organs for who knows what reasons https://euromedmonitor.org/en/article/5982/Int%E2%80%99l-committee-must-investigate-Israel%E2%80%99s-holding-of-dead-bodies-in-Gaza%E2%80%8B

And of course the children Israeli terrorists have been murdering. The record was held by ISIS terrorists but now the record is in the hands of Israel by far: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5473187.0
Have you even heard an Israeli/Zionist Hakham explain to their troops how they must murder children in Gaza before they're deployed? Here's an example: https://thecradle.co/articles-id/23810 and here is his speech with English subtitles: https://twitter.com/KhaledYousry22/status/1766212862719004836
If you have ever seen ISIS terrorists, they too give similar speeches for their terrorist troops before they're deployed to murder everyone including children.

And most importantly they've been doing this for decades not just over the past 6-7 months!

[Hewlet]

And I agree with Op that if it was to be a decade ago the percentage price fall experienced presently would have been far down than this, which is to say there is a progression and bitcoin will surely get there giving it time.

you know that thier are different category of investor in the bitcoin ecosystem and what mostly happens is that those that are still new to investing into Bitcoin and have probably not been thinking more long termed that looking at the momentary effect of global crisis on the world of Bitcoin are the ones that are too quick to sell off thier holding during this minor issue.

If you're investing with the aim to get your in the future, minor issues like this wouldn't cause you to tamper with your holding and that's the mentality of those that didn't sell any shit even when rumors of a full blown global war was flying here and thier. I mean, the COVID and other worse of issue that made Bitcoin go bearish in the past have all come and gone and Bitcoin have still soawed to the point it is now after those issue and those that even made it a necessity to buy during such moment where the ones that will be at a good amount of profit. While we can't deny the fact that Bitcoin went down somehow around that day, the movement was to minimal for a long term holder to become bothered about.

[Coyster]

There are quite a lot of weak hands in the Bitcoin commuinity, and they make up the numbers of those who don't believe or trust Bitcoin, thus as long as we have so many people like this, Bitcoin price will always fall during a global tension. As soon as there is problem in any part of the world that garners attention, they will dump their coins, spread FUD about it and others will dump their coins too.

That being said, the situation is going to keep getting better until we have very less of such people in the network, but it is going to take quite a long time, but i believe a time will come when Bitcoin is stronger and very much resistant to FUD, global tensions and other whatnots.

[EarnOnVictor]

Are you now calling Israel a terrorist? Then you are not being sincere. If your country faces what Israel faced in the hands of Palestinians/Hamas, I hope you would fold your hands and only watch.

Israel is not a country, it is a project and an occupying force that has taken over Palestine and has been actively committing genocide for decades, is globally condemned for it and crimes of apartheid, regularly commits acts of terrorism and assassinations overseas, regularly breaks international laws, and commits a wide variety of crimes against humanity.
-snip-

Bro, it took me a long time to read most of the links provided and I must say that I am so surprised about some of them including your position on the whole issue. Maybe you should choose more verifiable sources for your information that will balance things up with initial issues and causes fairly discussed, and not some random and sentimental ones like the above. I stand with Equity, Justice and Humanity. I repeat, I will never take sides against the three. But judging by all I know, I think Palestinians should have thought things through wisely before allowing more havoc. At least in recent decades, they always strike first, but to what end? Death and Destruction. Then why strike if not for foolishness?

Also, I've stated that Israel is overreacting, but let me tell you, war and military actions could be brutal, and it would have been worse if Palestinians and their allies were capable of dealing with Israel. They should have known better before daring them. As usual, this issue has always been controversial among people as we take different sides. Sadly, what we mostly read is what they want us to read and judging by how misinformation is flying these days, I am so confident that most of what you guys believe you know could be pure false, though an iota of truth will be there, but to what extent? That is why I disregard the too-long years' statements if actions and reactions are not fairly included.

What I know of the situation is a bit different from what you know, but regardless, one thing I am confident about in this present dispensation of Israel is that they do not throw the first punch. The hostility of Palestinians causes enough of what we see today. Do you mean they are the saint here and are never genocidal against Israel? The histories are there, including the most recent ones we all know.

Above all, I was surprised by the statement that Israel is not a country but a project. A project doing better than Palestine. If it is not a country, what is it by true (no sentiment) definition? An occupied territory? An occupied territory that is on the world map and backed by all the international laws possible? The world is not foolish.

Perhaps, you should read more about how countries of the world came to be, many were neighbours before, and some families, friends, and some were travellers who sojourned with some settlers before they moved to a nearby land to form their countries. No one, I repeat, no one brought their lands from heaven, and most of the countries you see today started by one history or another, and some are even similar to that of Israel-Palestian's story and they've moved on since nations have already been established regardless of how it happened. But the fact that Palestinians can't move on is the issue they have till now.

"Angering a giant when you are nothing compared to him can't be well with the person," they should be wise. Israel has been established on the world map whether they like it or not.

[Odusko]

Most people still didn't see Bitcoin as their safest asset to hold, so they treat Bitcoin as trading, whenever it reach or down at certain price, they will sell/buy instead of holding.

They prefer to convert their asset to WTI, XAU or even USD since they believe those are immutable and less volatility.

It's really hard for Bitcoin reach maturity level, if most people still don't know why they buy Bitcoin (instead of price) and how to hold it safely (they still use centralized exchanges), what we can expect?

Bitcoin price speculations have been there for ages and most of the times mostly newbies who have not build the basic understanding of how investment profitability grows and what the safest assets to hold and at whatever time, the knowledge of that will allows you to choose between short terms gains that could potentially leads to loses, or long term values, although news may have some short-term effects on bitcoin price, which is normally.