How to Approach Alt-Coins in This Israel-Iran Pretended War News?

[Juxoz]

So everyone is apparently freaking out, selling their bags over a potential conflict between Israel and Iran. Been around long enough in life to know that these two countries always do a lot of chest beating and always come out from the other end with whimpers. In the meantime, the markets, even outside of crypto, react like idiots, and there lies opportunities for the rest of us.

I am a bit shock to see how poorly Alt-coins are reacting today (last 6 hours) with this news. I get it that the crypto community acts on their emotional instincts but holy cow! I entered crypto during the last crypto winter, so I have a better understanding of what it's like and how to react next time around, but given that we are going into the bull market, I am experimenting how crypto market reacts to events like this too.

I called the latest highs a while back, and my last post was speculating that the market for some of these Alt-coins will plunge by 30%+. Nonetheless, I restrained myself not to go back in after selling some parts of my tax-free account at the very top. Boy I'm glad I got busy with work and couldn't bother researching what I should be buying.

That said, I am trying to gauge which one of these tokens I should be buying now that everything gone apesh*t. Please note that given that is my tax-free account, I use it to buy and sell frequently, so my goals are short-terms and not long-term (the bulk of my crypto investment is in long-term accounts, and the plan is to leave them there till we hit "euphoria"):

MATIC Polygon: -50% down from the recent high; close to the bottom since last Oct. I had high hopes for MATIC, but it's just not pumping like Alt-coins, so not super excited about shifting my account to MATIC anymore.
ALGO Algorand: -100% down from the recent high; around the lows hit in Feb; this looks promising but not a huge fan; still considering it
ATOM Cosmo: -80% down from the recent high; in par with the lows in Nov, but 20% to go since the lows in last Oct; good long wavy formation. I might consider it
AVAX Avalanche: -90% down from the recent high; close to lows from Jan; needs another 25% from Nov lows; Avalanche has never been good to me. I think I'll pass for this round too.
DOT Polkadot: -85% down from the recent high; almost passed from Jan lows; 15% to go to reach the lows in Nov; like Avalanche all of a sudden it became a rising giant. Not too sure about it, but it looks like a safer bet than others.
AAVE Aave: -84% down from the recent high; almost passing the lows set back in Oct; lots of saw pattern with no discernible pump
GRT Graph: -100% down from the recent high; still 30% north of the most recent support back in Jan-Feb; I am considering Graph as my top choice due to the last run being too good to me
AXS Axis Infinity: -85% down from the recent high; 10% to go to reach the lows back in Feb; don't know much about it.
COMP Compound: -87% down from the recent high; 5% left to hit the support reached back in Jan; a lot of steady side way movement... I need volatility
CRV Curve: -105% down from the recent high; has reached the support hit back in Oct; love the volatility of Curve, so this is one of my top choices for this round.
DOGE Dogecoin: -50% down from the recent high; 10% to the lows in March; 40% left to the lows in Feb; Dogecoin didn't dip too much recently, and I am wondering why?
FLOW Flow: -88% down from the recent high; 20% left to hit the support reached back in Feb; just don't know much about it to make the decision
GALA Gala: -105% down from the recent high; reached the support hit back in March; 47% left to reach the lows hit back in Feb; this one was super depressed for a long time, and only showed signs of life just recently, so not too sure about it
HBAR Hedera: -77% down from the recent high; 10% left to the lows hit in Feb
MANA Decentraland: -85% down from the recent high; has reached the support hit back in Feb; don't know much about it, so I think I'll stay away from it for now.
SAND Sandbox: -90% down from the recent high; surpassed Feb or Dec lows; 10% to hit Nov lows; don't know much about it, so I think I'll stay away from it for now.
SHIB Shiba: -77% down from the recent high; 50% left to reach the lows in Feb
SOL Solana: -50% down from the recent high; 25% left to reach the lows in Feb; Solana has performed beautifully, but how much gas does it left in its tank for short term pump? Not too sure.
SUSHI Sushi: -125% down from the recent high; hitting the support reached back in Nov; what is up with SUSHI? Lots of steady side ways, then a pump, then another steady side way movement, then a pump. I am considering it.
UNI Uniswap: -132% down from the recent high; 10% left to reach the lows in Feb; with the recent U.S. government going after them, I don't think I want to risk it with them


After filtering:

ALGO Algorand
ATOM Cosmo
DOT Polkadot
GRT Graph
CRV Curve
SUSHI Sushi

I am seeing more luck with Graph, Curve, and Sushi. What do you think?

UPDATE [4/13/2024]: Purchased Graph (40%); Curve (30%); Sushi (30%) of this small fund. Hoping to double it by the end of this summer.

[1714529308]

1714529308

[d5000]

DOGE Dogecoin: -50% down from the recent high; 10% to the lows in March; 40% left to the lows in Feb; Dogecoin didn't dip too much recently, and I am wondering why?

For me it's not so much of a surprise. Dogecoin benefits from a couple of developments lately:

I think the most important fact is that Dogecoin futures were announced by Coinbase (they're coming still in April according to this Coinbase blogpost from a few days ago). This is the first time a Doge-based financial product is issued on a regulated US exchange (perhaps even worldwide). While BCH and LTC futures are also part of the original announcement, they were already launched at April 1. For Doge, this "sell the news" event has still not happened.

Then of course it's benefitted by the memecoin frenzy in general. While their heyday may have passed already (at least for this wave), Doge specifically may be benefitting from the current developments as people are running away from extremely risky assets, so if they have still hopes for the "memecoin" category, they would probably choose the more established ones -- or some exotic newcomers, but it's not for everyone to search the cryptosphere for weeks for "the next new thing". Doge has performed well in the last weeks but did not explode completely like dogwifhat and friends, so people may be seeing still potential to the upside.

This is not an advice to buy Doge now, I'm quite skeptic about it and it could of course crash deeper. But in comparison to other memecoins they seem now a relatively acceptable choice.

[Bureau]

So everyone is apparently freaking out, selling their bags over a potential conflict between Israel and Iran. Been around long enough in life to know that these two countries always do a lot of chest beating and always come out from the other end with whimpers. In the meantime, the markets, even outside of crypto, react like idiots, and there lies opportunities for the rest of us.

Iran has attacked Israel and this time there is no chest beating. Iran launches hundreds of missiles, drones in first direct attack on Israel

I am a bit shock to see how poorly Alt-coins are reacting today (last 6 hours) with this news. I get it that the crypto community acts on their emotional instincts but holy cow! I entered crypto during the last crypto winter, so I have a better understanding of what it's like and how to react next time around, but given that we are going into the bull market, I am experimenting how crypto market reacts to events like this too.

Altcoins always react poorly whenever Bitcoin goes into the red zone. This is nothing new as this has happened in the past but this might be the first time that the crypto market is reacting to this war like the global stock market.

MATIC Polygon: -50% down from the recent high; close to the bottom since last Oct. I had high hopes for MATIC, but it's just not pumping like Alt-coins, so not super excited about shifting my account to MATIC anymore.
ALGO Algorand: -100% down from the recent high; around the lows hit in Feb; this looks promising but not a huge fan; still considering it
ATOM Cosmo: -80% down from the recent high; in par with the lows in Nov, but 20% to go since the lows in last Oct; good long wavy formation. I might consider it
AVAX Avalanche: -90% down from the recent high; close to lows from Jan; needs another 25% from Nov lows; Avalanche has never been good to me. I think I'll pass for this round too.
DOT Polkadot: -85% down from the recent high; almost passed from Jan lows; 15% to go to reach the lows in Nov; like Avalanche all of a sudden it became a rising giant. Not too sure about it, but it looks like a safer bet than others.
AAVE Aave: -84% down from the recent high; almost passing the lows set back in Oct; lots of saw pattern with no discernible pump
GRT Graph: -100% down from the recent high; still 30% north of the most recent support back in Jan-Feb; I am considering Graph as my top choice due to the last run being too good to me
AXS Axis Infinity: -85% down from the recent high; 10% to go to reach the lows back in Feb; don't know much about it.
COMP Compound: -87% down from the recent high; 5% left to hit the support reached back in Jan; a lot of steady side way movement... I need volatility
CRV Curve: -105% down from the recent high; has reached the support hit back in Oct; love the volatility of Curve, so this is one of my top choices for this round.
DOGE Dogecoin: -50% down from the recent high; 10% to the lows in March; 40% left to the lows in Feb; Dogecoin didn't dip too much recently, and I am wondering why?
FLOW Flow: -88% down from the recent high; 20% left to hit the support reached back in Feb; just don't know much about it to make the decision
GALA Gala: -105% down from the recent high; reached the support hit back in March; 47% left to reach the lows hit back in Feb; this one was super depressed for a long time, and only showed signs of life just recently, so not too sure about it
HBAR Hedera: -77% down from the recent high; 10% left to the lows hit in Feb
MANA Decentraland: -85% down from the recent high; has reached the support hit back in Feb; don't know much about it, so I think I'll stay away from it for now.
SAND Sandbox: -90% down from the recent high; surpassed Feb or Dec lows; 10% to hit Nov lows; don't know much about it, so I think I'll stay away from it for now.
SHIB Shiba: -77% down from the recent high; 50% left to reach the lows in Feb
SOL Solana: -50% down from the recent high; 25% left to reach the lows in Feb; Solana has performed beautifully, but how much gas does it left in its tank for short term pump? Not too sure.
SUSHI Sushi: -125% down from the recent high; hitting the support reached back in Nov; what is up with SUSHI? Lots of steady side ways, then a pump, then another steady side way movement, then a pump. I am considering it.
UNI Uniswap: -132% down from the recent high; 10% left to reach the lows in Feb; with the recent U.S. government going after them, I don't think I want to risk it with them

Wait for more bloodshed in the crypto market, this situation will escalate and we might be seeing a big war in the making. I do not think you should presume that the market will recover soon.

[DeathAngel]

Just like we dumped hard whenCOVID news first broke, just like we dumped hard when Russia vs Ukraine war started, the price of Bitcoin & most altcoins will recover in a few days. I would be surprised if we haven’t retraced the whole dump within one week. Whales & market makers use bad news to dump the price to buy in at a cheaper price. Retail investors are usually the panic dumpers, stronger hands will buy the dip & all will be good again. Don’t fall for whales games.

[kentrolla]

I would say sensible selection and we have already seen such situations in the past as well especially during COVID, I would say we need to either utilize this opportunity by going with Altcoins when they are at rock bottom price but need to filter the Altcoins the way you have done because if we choose any random Altcoin then there are chances that the Altcoins chosen may never recover. Else, stick to Bitcoin if you don't want to risk or experiment.

[coiningz]

Thanks, i bought some coins from your list but i expected that almost every big alt will recover pretty fast

[pinggoki]

Just like we dumped hard whenCOVID news first broke, just like we dumped hard when Russia vs Ukraine war started, the price of Bitcoin & most altcoins will recover in a few days. I would be surprised if we haven’t retraced the whole dump within one week. Whales & market makers use bad news to dump the price to buy in at a cheaper price. Retail investors are usually the panic dumpers, stronger hands will buy the dip & all will be good again. Don’t fall for whales games.

It's a sad thing but if you think about it, altcoins and bitcoin will almost always benefit when there's something negative, what I mean is that you can almost always expect price dips that you can use as an opportunity to buy a lot and then you can expect yourself to get the profits really fast since most of these dumps are quickly recovered. So when it comes to approach, I'd say that you should keep your eyes peeled on the market via the exchanges and your fiat ready because you're not going to want to miss out when this happens. As @DeathAngel have said, it's probably the best if you don't become your typical retail investor that panic sells and dumps their crypto, think like a whale, you know that they expect small retail investors like us to be panicking so they dump their own hoard and they get it back much lower and they get more value because they know that you and I were selling, if you do this, you're most likely going to get some profit in times like this instead of losses.

[Juxoz]

I think the most important fact is that Dogecoin futures were announced by Coinbase (they're coming still in April according to this Coinbase blogpost from a few days ago). This is the first time a Doge-based financial product is issued on a regulated US exchange (perhaps even worldwide). While BCH and LTC futures are also part of the original announcement, they were already launched at April 1. For Doge, this "sell the news" event has still not happened.

Then of course it's benefitted by the memecoin frenzy in general. While their heyday may have passed already (at least for this wave), Doge specifically may be benefitting from the current developments as people are running away from extremely risky assets, so if they have still hopes for the "memecoin" category, they would probably choose the more established ones -- or some exotic newcomers, but it's not for everyone to search the cryptosphere for weeks for "the next new thing". Doge has performed well in the last weeks but did not explode completely like dogwifhat and friends, so people may be seeing still potential to the upside.

This is not an advice to buy Doge now, I'm quite skeptic about it and it could of course crash deeper. But in comparison to other memecoins they seem now a relatively acceptable choice.

I had briefly skimmed over the future news; thanks for mentioning it. That's one thing I don't like about memecoins; they are just too out of whack for my market sensibility. Maybe Dogecoin is one of the most stable of this category, but they've never sit well with me. I'm sure it'll recover, but would the delta be higher than the other 6 or 3 that I listed it at the bottom? I doubt it. (paint me wrong in a few months  )

[Juxoz]

Iran has attacked Israel and this time there is no chest beating. Iran launches hundreds of missiles, drones in first direct attack on Israel

Altcoins always react poorly whenever Bitcoin goes into the red zone. This is nothing new as this has happened in the past but this might be the first time that the crypto market is reacting to this war like the global stock market.

Wait for more bloodshed in the crypto market, this situation will escalate and we might be seeing a big war in the making. I do not think you should presume that the market will recover soon.

Yes, I was watching the footages yesterday evening; I was talking about a full blown war between these countries. That would never happen as both sides are too smart to escalate it to that level. It won't benefit neither; these back and forths are just to avoid losing face at this point. Shooting a few rockets that whimper in the air means nothing in the grander scheme of geopolitical push and shove.

Alt-coins do react poorly in general, but looking at Bitcoin, it's down only 8%, when the rest are -- as you can see above -- 80% to 110% down. First time living through a bull run, so I'm a bit surprised that after so many cycles since 2011, there is such volatility in Alt-coin markets at this stage. Live and learn.

And yes, I could have waited, but I think at this point either direction the market moves, there is more chance that it won't go further down by much. Almost all the Alt-coins I listed in the OP stopped, or settled, around their support hit last Nov/Oct (and some Feb). If it goes further down, then there is no end at sight. And it looks like the market stopped bleeding last night, but who knows.

[Husires]

The cash flows that were supposed to go to MATIC Polygon went to Solana. Investors were interested in quick profits and cheap blockchain, which is what that blockchain provided them.

Curve, ALGO, and AVAX are pumped based on Ethereum. If something happens to the Ethereum blockchain, they will be pumped, but there is news that there may be an Ethereum ETF.

DOT will turn into a little-used blockchain, and I do not advise you to invest in it.

DOGE may start pumping again if Musk starts tweeting again, but invest in it, who knows what will happen in the future.

MANA Decentraland I've never heard of it before.

UNI Uniswap: There may be accusations from the SEC, this will put pressure on the price.

[electronicash]

your approach will always vary as to whether you think this dump will last long. wars can always last for more than 3 years but i don't think the market will still be crashing when its only 5 days left for the halving to come. so if you think that the price of altcoins will keep dumping, it's up to you. but it is always known that these altcoins will follow whatever BTC does. 

once the BTC goes up, all these altcoins also will start climbing back again.

[wheelz1200]

DOGE Dogecoin: -50% down from the recent high; 10% to the lows in March; 40% left to the lows in Feb; Dogecoin didn't dip too much recently, and I am wondering why?

For me it's not so much of a surprise. Dogecoin benefits from a couple of developments lately:

I think the most important fact is that Dogecoin futures were announced by Coinbase (they're coming still in April according to this Coinbase blogpost from a few days ago). This is the first time a Doge-based financial product is issued on a regulated US exchange (perhaps even worldwide). While BCH and LTC futures are also part of the original announcement, they were already launched at April 1. For Doge, this "sell the news" event has still not happened.

Then of course it's benefitted by the memecoin frenzy in general. While their heyday may have passed already (at least for this wave), Doge specifically may be benefitting from the current developments as people are running away from extremely risky assets, so if they have still hopes for the "memecoin" category, they would probably choose the more established ones -- or some exotic newcomers, but it's not for everyone to search the cryptosphere for weeks for "the next new thing". Doge has performed well in the last weeks but did not explode completely like dogwifhat and friends, so people may be seeing still potential to the upside.

This is not an advice to buy Doge now, I'm quite skeptic about it and it could of course crash deeper. But in comparison to other memecoins they seem now a relatively acceptable choice.

I think for the most part all of the top coins are pretty safe from bottoming out too far.  The coins you have to worry about are the new ones that recently took off.  People aren't long term holders and if it drops too far it likely will never go back up.  Dogecoin will see a nice bu.p once we get into a full on bull run.  I'm not bullish on doge long term but in these bull cycles it will go up so long as bitcoin goes up.  They trend together.

[Juxoz]

The cash flows that were supposed to go to MATIC Polygon went to Solana. Investors were interested in quick profits and cheap blockchain, which is what that blockchain provided them.

Being new to crypto back in 2022, I constantly saw negative news about Solana in certain circles. At the same time, I was seeing a lot of projects popping or growing around it, so didn't ignore it. As a matter of fact, Solana has become #1 in my portfolio, even surpassing ETH. Don't ask me how. I still think Polygon will find its place, so not unloading its position (#6 or #7 right now).

Curve, ALGO, and AVAX are pumped based on Ethereum. If something happens to the Ethereum blockchain, they will be pumped, but there is news that there may be an Ethereum ETF.

Curve is a liquidity-focused protocol. I think when the demand in liquidity grows exponentially during euphoria stage of bull run, the demand might spike rapidly. Of course, since it operates on the Ethereum blockchain, those lovely ETFs will mostly boost its position in near future, but I am just aiming for small cycles during the bull run with this account. But point is taken.

DOT will turn into a little-used blockchain, and I do not advise you to invest in it.

I believe one of its main goals is interoperability between chains. If you recall, back in 2022-2023, interoperability was the frothiest space in crypto (now being taken over by AI). Hence my interest. I only got 70% return from mid last year till its recent high. With other coins being more volatile, and not being interested in a long-term investment, I think I'll shelf this one for now.

DOGE may start pumping again if Musk starts tweeting again, but invest in it, who knows what will happen in the future.

Being after short-term volatility, you would think I'll be interested in a memecoin like DOGE, but I've always had an uncomfortable with these type of coins. I feel like they can't be tamed, lol.

MANA Decentraland I've never heard of it before.

A virtual reality BS, lol!