Gold vs bitcoin in a WWIII scenario

[WeThePe0ple]

I got into bitcoin because I believe that the monetary system is guaranteed to end in hyperinflation.
Bitcoin is honest money, if governments allow it to be that. It is not a hedge against hyperinflation, but it is a more honest substitute for the current monetary system.

While bitcoin is not a hedge against inflation, gold is. The goldprice has a long history of soaring when the monetary system fails.
I have never seen the goldprice crash in times of war, but correct me if I am wrong. During WWII, the gold price doubled.

If the scenario for the coming months and years is that we are heading into WWIII, and I truly believe that we will, what is your investment strategy for crypto? In times of heavy monetary inflation/ war threats I expected the BTC price to soar, just like gold soars. In reality what we have seen is that BTC crashes hard and precious metals soar.

I think I should sell my assets prior to a major war, and buy in after the crash

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[Husires]

Gold doubled after the end of the World War due to banks relying on it, but in our present time, even if 6% of inflation is normal, when a war occurs, this percentage will rise to 30%.
A devastating war will not occur due to the presence of nuclear weapons, which may mean the end of life. Armed conflicts will continue until countries fail and collapse internally, which means that paper money will decrease in value.
Your investment in gold and Bitcoin will be smart because, at the very least, your assets will maintain their value.

[mindrust]

In a WWIII scenario neither on of them will matter. You gotta have lots of clean water (preferably a well), dry food, shelter, bullets, 4x4, bunker, fuel, gas mask... and all these should be way away from the city center otherwise the mob will take it away from you. If you think you are John Wick and can kill them all, I can't argue with you however I know that we won't be having any functioning financial markets. Everything will go down very fast the moment the first nuke leaves its silo.

Bitcoin? Don't make me laugh.

[Marvell1]

I think I should sell my assets prior to a major war, and buy in after the crash

In theory, bitcoin can also be considered an effective hedge against inflation and is even better than gold. But unfortunately, bitcoin has not yet reached that stage, and what bitcoin is achieving is just a highly volatile investment. So it's quite normal for it to be dumped every time the world has a black swan, you don't need to be too surprised about that. But you need to know one thing that it is very volatile, bitcoin can be dumped but will also recover quickly, even increase sharply.

And I don't believe WW3 will happen, the war between Iran and Israel is a farce because it seems like it's over.

[pooya87]

While bitcoin is not a hedge against inflation, gold is. The goldprice has a long history of soaring when the monetary system fails.

Why do you think it isn't?
Bitcoin has proven to have a very independent market that is not affected by anything except the economy itself and only on a global level. For example it won't matter if the local economy in one or two countries is booming or crashing it won't affect bitcoin but if the global economy is affected in the same way then it will affect bitcoin.
That effect is always that with inflation price goes up and with recession it comes down. In other words bitcoin is a hedge against inflation or hyperinflation but it is not a hedge against recession.

I have never seen the goldprice crash in times of war, but correct me if I am wrong. During WWII, the gold price doubled.

Read this again and you should realize not to compare such an old asset like gold that has been around for centuries and have been treated as something valuable with bitcoin that is only a toddler in comparison.

If the scenario for the coming months and years is that we are heading into WWIII, and I truly believe that we will, what is your investment strategy for crypto?

It depends on how you define WW3. Technically we're fighting WW5 now (3rd one was the cold war between US and USSR). In some definitions (eg. nuclear extinction) you should invest in potatoes because food would be the currency of the world assuming you're one of the survivors...

In times of heavy monetary inflation/ war threats I expected the BTC price to soar, just like gold soars. In reality what we have seen is that BTC crashes hard and precious metals soar.

We haven't had any major global wars with major global inflation to test this. We've only had major localized conflicts and major global recession where the later caused crashes (the COVID recession and the start of Russian invasion of Ukraine).

[Helena Yu]

I got into bitcoin because I believe that the monetary system is guaranteed to end in hyperinflation.
Bitcoin is honest money, if governments allow it to be that. It is not a hedge against hyperinflation, but it is a more honest substitute for the current monetary system.

You mean Bitcoin is accepted as a legal tender? it didn't help.

EMPTY WALLETS
To date, most Salvadorans ignore bitcoin. They worry about the cryptocurrency's volatility in a cash-based economy where many live hand-to-mouth.
Some 88% of Salvadorans did not use it in 2023, according to a survey by the University of Central America's public opinion institute. Just 1% of remittances were sent in bitcoin.
Nearly two dozen people Reuters spoke to said they did not care to understand the cryptocurrency, but they were increasingly concerned about the lack of jobs and rising costs of housing and food.

El Salvador was been accept Bitcoin as legal tender since 2021, but until now there's no big adoption even Bitcoin already reach 3x times higher since 2022. You can expect a similar thing if Bitcoin has been accepted on other countries, they might ignore Bitcoin too.

I think I should sell my assets prior to a major war, and buy in after the crash

If that so,

Congratulations, it means you sell low, and you buy high.

[Ambatman]

The price of Bitcoin is not supposed to be affected by war because it's borderless.
The sharp decline is a result of individuals selling believing it would be affected due to Bitcoin relative young age to Gold
This same happened during the Ukraine Russian war and even amid the conflict we saw a sharp recovery.
To me it's just a correction that's really needed so we can start hitting the $100K barrier.
Selling your coin is a choice but thinking if buying after not might but would be too late
Note never chase a perfect entry.
Gold is a good option during the war but what about after and by how much do you think it would rise.
Recall Gold isn't as volatile as Bitcoin and you shouldn't be expecting life shaking profit.

Bat out

[m2017]

I got into bitcoin because I believe that the monetary system is guaranteed to end in hyperinflation.

Inflation is a constant companion of the modern monetary and financial system, built into the “program” from the very beginning. Consider it a built-in side effect.

Bitcoin is honest money, if governments allow it to be that. It is not a hedge against hyperinflation, but it is a more honest substitute for the current monetary system.

Money is a means of exchanging goods and services. Evaluating from this position, bitcoin can't be called money, because for the most part it is used for investment purposes, and not for paying for goods and services. If money doesn't fulfill its function (a means of payment), then how can it be called money?

What is the honesty of bitcoin? What do you understand by this term?

While bitcoin is not a hedge against inflation, gold is. The goldprice has a long history of soaring when the monetary system fails.
I have never seen the goldprice crash in times of war, but correct me if I am wrong. During WWII, the gold price doubled.

But what if we look at it from a different angle? Maybe it was just money that depreciated by 2 times during that period, and not gold that doubled in price?

If the scenario for the coming months and years is that we are heading into WWIII, and I truly believe that we will, what is your investment strategy for crypto? In times of heavy monetary inflation/ war threats I expected the BTC price to soar, just like gold soars. In reality what we have seen is that BTC crashes hard and precious metals soar.

Anyone here knows that there can only be one investment strategy in bitcoin - just hodl.

I think I should sell my assets prior to a major war, and buy in after the crash

What if everything develops according to a different scenario and after the war the price goes up? Then you will be in the red.

It is more prudent to sell only half now and if the price of crypto goes up, sell the second half of your savings, if not, then buy more with the proceeds from the sale now.

[WeThePe0ple]

While bitcoin is not a hedge against inflation, gold is. The goldprice has a long history of soaring when the monetary system fails.

Why do you think it isn't?

Because if it was, bitcoin's price would go up when the money supply increases.
Gold does that, but bitcoin does not.

In my opinion bitcoin is a worthy substitute for a corrupted system. But it can only be that if enough people allow it to be that substitute.

[Kelward]

Some people talk about ww3 like it's something to look forward to, and they make financial predictions about post ww3, but they fail to realize that if it happens, their money in the bank and their crypto wallet will be the least of their worries. Like Pooya87, rightly noted, a bag of potatoes that is stored in a secured location and may I also add clean water will become more valuable than all your financial assets. The OP sounded positive about ww3 happening, I'll let him know that if it happens WW1 and WW2 will be nothing near it's devastation, technological advancements have made it possible for warfares to annihilate almost all living things, the few people that'll remain will turn to savages that'll be fighting over food to survive, not billions in the bank or Blockchain, so be careful what you wish for

[EarnOnVictor]

My true assessment is that, since Bitcoin moved in multiples over the past few years, people believe that it is what could be compared exactly with Gold and will always perform well without any challenges. But I see it differently. Bitcoin is still finding its path to survive the test of time even though everything seems perfect, but Gold is way old and has done so well and been used for virtually anything you can think of as an asset and it survived. It is a safe-haven asset which is why it was able to overcome all odds and hurdles, especially during the time of war. For the fact that Gold is one of the common commodities that has not failed people, people/investors prefer to keep their money in it, and not fiat currencies that the war may affect hugely depending on the devastation meted on the country spending the currency during the war. After the war, the currency could have devalued so much.

But with Gold that has no certain government/country control/dependence, it remains the same, and could even be reviewed higher in price since more capital would be injected into it. If the world war happens again, we may see Gold reaching the moon indeed, especially as the population of the world is higher now, and so will the value of its liquidity and price. Well, I would have said a little same for Bitcoin but I can't because it is still young, and most importantly, it is not a safe-haven asset. It is a risk-on asset just like other major fiat currencies. It also has the limitation of internet dependency, which makes Gold even more unique during war. Because, if the war is bitting and the internet ceases, Gold can still be used to make transactions, which makes it more valuable at that time.

[suzanne5223]

I got into bitcoin because I believe that the monetary system is guaranteed to end in hyperinflation.
Bitcoin is honest money, if governments allow it to be that. It is not a hedge against hyperinflation, but it is a more honest substitute for the current monetary system.

While bitcoin is not a hedge against inflation, gold is. The goldprice has a long history of soaring when the monetary system fails.
I have never seen the goldprice crash in times of war, but correct me if I am wrong. During WWII, the gold price doubled.

When I first read your statement I first believed you were someone who understood the concept of Bitcoin when said it's the best alternative to the current monetary system, but I was surprised when you saw it as an asset that's not hedged against inflation when its performance during the worldwide total lockdown that was caused by the Covid-19.
If you make the statement due to the market performance after the Iran attack it means you don't understand the things that always influence the crypto market and gold price(Mind you, some governments/organizations always make a profit when attacks like Iran happen).

Believe it or not, it's a political strategy.

If the scenario for the coming months and years is that we are heading into WWIII, and I truly believe that we will, what is your investment strategy for crypto? In times of heavy monetary inflation/ war threats I expected the BTC price to soar, just like gold soars. In reality what we have seen is that BTC crashes hard and precious metals soar.

I think I should sell my assets prior to a major war, and buy in after the crash

War issues always lead to panic sales in the crypto market while 98.9% of it always leads to a soar in the price of the Gold market but that doesn't mean BTC is not a hedge fund against inflation.

[aylabadia05]

While bitcoin is not a hedge against inflation, gold is. The goldprice has a long history of soaring when the monetary system fails.
I have never seen the goldprice crash in times of war, but correct me if I am wrong. During WWII, the gold price doubled.

Why is Bitcoin not a hedge because several studies say that Bitcoin is the best hedge than gold. This does not mean that gold is not a good asset for hedging because finding who is the best hedge between Bitcoin and gold depends on each individual's view.

Traditional investors might choose gold as an investment asset because the price is more stable. For smart investors who have a more modern outlook, Bitcoin is a good asset to invest in as an asset that preserves value from a damaged economic system and the price increase can be greater than gold.
I can't find any more articles that cover at length who is the best hedge for me to link here.

[Ale88]

If the scenario for the coming months and years is that we are heading into WWIII, and I truly believe that we will, what is your investment strategy for crypto?

If you really think that soon we'll start WWIII then I wouldn't care too much about your crypto investments because it'll be a miracle if you're still alive. I'm not sure you actually understand what WWIII means otherwise you would't be here asking about crypto strategies rather than survival strategies. The would would be completely destroyed, at that point it would be all about survival: money, gold, cryptos, all useless.

[Pidgeon]

I have never seen the goldprice crash in times of war, but correct me if I am wrong. During WWII, the gold price doubled.

https://onlygold.com/gold-prices/historical-gold-prices/

1939  $35.00
1945  $37.25

I didn't now it before and I'm a bit surprised but gold didn't moved at all during ww2, I knew it started being a thing in 1972 but the before data surprised me.

[Saint-loup]

Where have you seen that "In reality what we have seen is that BTC crashes hard" correct me if I'm wrong but Bitcoin has never experienced any world war up to now. So I don't understand how you can say that. Nobody can predict how it will react actually. Unlike fiat money Bitcoin only needs internet and few miners in order to run, while banks can't work by their own. And even if some miners are bombed it will continue to be fully available thanks to its decentralized features unlike banks. In addition countries could buy weapons and ammunitions more discreetly by using cryptocurrencies. 

[darkangel11]

Let's compare it to the situations Ukrainians found themselves in.
They needed to flee the country, but there was a chance border guards would steal their money if they found them carrying a lot. The same would happen if they were found carrying a bag of gold.
If they happened to enter the EU, they wouldn't be able to fly anywhere because you cannot carry a lot of cash and valuables like gold, jewelry, including watches, and cash. AFAIK the legal limit is somewhere around 20k EUR. So, in a situation where you have to migrate with a lot of money, bitcoin is the obvious choice.

[WeThePe0ple]

Congratulations, it means you sell low, and you buy high.

I'm in decent profit at this point.
But not one altcoin has kept its BTC pair.

When BTC corrects 5%, altcoins correct at least 15%.
When BTC rises, altcoins barely beat the BTC price rise. And if they do, they correct shortly after.

If WWIII really breaks out (BTC correction of 20% or much more), I believe that most altcoins will just disappear.
For now I'm only getting into BTC and XRP (small percentage). Some other altcoins are 1% of my portfolio or less.
I was into ADA and Matic for 5% but that was a mistake. Both have disappointed greatly.
With the current global situation being the way it is, I'm only going to buy altcoins after the next bloodbath

[WeThePe0ple]

Where have you seen that "In reality what we have seen is that BTC crashes hard" correct me if I'm wrong but Bitcoin has never experienced any world war up to now. So I don't understand how you can say that.

There was a flash crash simply because of Iran launching an attack on Israel.
I don't think it's wrong to assume that when this escalates, BTC's response will be an exaggeration of what happened yesterday.

[WeThePe0ple]

Some people talk about ww3 like it's something to look forward to, and they make financial predictions about post ww3, but they fail to realize that if it happens, their money in the bank and their crypto wallet will be the least of their worries. Like Pooya87, rightly noted, a bag of potatoes that is stored in a secured location and may I also add clean water will become more valuable than all your financial assets. The OP sounded positive about ww3 happening, I'll let him know that if it happens WW1 and WW2 will be nothing near it's devastation, technological advancements have made it possible for warfares to annihilate almost all living things, the few people that'll remain will turn to savages that'll be fighting over food to survive, not billions in the bank or Blockchain, so be careful what you wish for

While there is a lot of truth to this, I'd like to make a few points:

- I think the consequences of war greatly depend on the location of the person. I'm personally located in Belgium. I believe that NATO will end up backing the USA in another war, orchestrated by Israel against Iran and its allies. It's hard for me to guess how we will be affected. I'm thinking rampant inflation. I can't imagine there would be loads of violence in my own country. If we somehow would get attacked by Iran, the target would likely be the capital which is a 3 hour drive from where I live. This is where the NATO headquarters are located, so it makes sense. The only scenario in which I think all of us can be affected, is a nuclear strike on the capital with miles of devastation around it. I don't know if we have the capacity to intercept nuclear strikes the way the USA and Israel do.

- Regarding the bag of potatoes. I live in a large family house at the countryside. I think this location is much more preferable than a city in a case like this. The house has a huge garden (about half the size of a soccer field) which allows me to grow my own food. I am personally looking forward to this regardless of any war. The house also has 5 rooms, allowing us to take friends and even refugees if we want to. It is likely that we will.

- About water I am not sure. My main concern is default on mortgage downpayments due to rampant inflation in WWIII. I think this is how the World Economic Forum will establish their famous quote "By 2030 you will own nothing". They know that the monetary system will inevitably crash. I believe they will either blame it on a cyber attack, or on all out war.

Surely the end of life on earth as we know it is possible because of nuclear strikes. But I personally believe it will happen because of AI outsmarting the human race and killing all of us, within the next 20-30 years. AI will take over most jobs. We don't need 16 billion people on the planet.