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Author Topic: Short-term holders now have about ~1.8M BTC  (Read 247 times)
stompix
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April 18, 2024, 05:32:35 PM
 #21

Am I the only one who doesn't get that chart?
How it is even calculated, it says (average coins age <155 days), so that means it should also show here:
https://www.mesmerdata.com/on-chain-charts/btc-coin-age-cohorts-supply-hodl-waves/

But once you zoom out there is nothing special at all.
I assume most of that si caused by coins moving out from Grayscale to Blackrock coffers but how does this make them "short-term" holders?

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April 18, 2024, 06:47:41 PM
 #22

So short-term holders are ETFs because they bought in the last 150 days. Are they really a group that adds to the volatility? I don't think so. It's not like these people buy to sell in a week or a month. Most ETF buyers are long-term investors.

I assume most of that si caused by coins moving out from Grayscale to Blackrock coffers but how does this make them "short-term" holders?
Exactly! How do they can calculate if someone bought?
Let's say I move my coins from Electrum to a new hardware wallet - does that mean I'm a short-term holder now?'
If bitcoin ever goes above $100k you will see a lot of these fake short-term speculators because a lot of people will find themselves holding small fortunes and moving that, for instance to a multi signature service.
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April 18, 2024, 09:04:33 PM
 #23

Yeah short term holders are generally not a good way to measure the demand for bitcoin. The best way is to look at the long term holders and as prices goes up, are they selling.

Usually you will see that during every ATH and during some massive dips, there are long term holders selling. This can give you a clue as when to start taking profit or not.
I think it is, if you look at long-term holders, it means you are looking at people who bought Bitcoin years or months ago which in some sense can be considered outdated data, but when you look at short-term buyers, it means that people are currently buying and that is the correct way to measure the demand for Bitcoin in recent times because it's the current stats that matter and not the ones that are old. It's true that if there are a lot of long-term holders, it means Bitcoin is still in demand, but when you look at short-term buyers, it helps you understand whether the demand is increasing or decreasing.

Such data can also be useful for investors or traders to evaluate current situations and make their trades accordingly. If the demand is increasing and more people are buying, it means the price will go up soon, and if it's the opposite of that, expect a dip or a correction.

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April 18, 2024, 10:34:31 PM
 #24

There's no way I'm going to get excited about short term holders chart going up because anyone buying in the short term is only betting that that Bitcoin halving event will act as a super catalyst for future bitcoin price growth and will effectively dump on us when the market reaches their target prices. What I'd be excited to see if if addresses that haven't had any outflows in years start accumulating even more Bitcoin. This way, there's market downturn that would be caused by the quick in-out traders.

I'm looking forward to the halving event. I might just open a small bitcoin long in this dip.

 
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April 18, 2024, 11:03:02 PM
 #25

IMO, they're ready to get deployed and get dumped once the price target has been reached. Well, it's not a new thing to be seen because everyone is for profit.

Regardless of how long we want to hold Bitcoin when the times of need get close to you, you have no other option but to sell it. But many of these holders have it all planned on how long and at what rate they'd sell those.

As with this data, I guess it's more optimistic knowing the long term holders and those that haven't moved more than that range as the so called real HODLERS.

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April 18, 2024, 11:13:51 PM
 #26

Short-term holders are those who bought Bitcoin on average in the past 155 days or about the past 5 months,
~~~

Is it? What if some of the people who purchased Bitcoin at the same time frame are people who want to invest for the long run but that’s when they decided to enter the market? I’m not sure if there’s a way to get the short term holders because they don’t have a difference from those who buy for long term, the only difference is their will (in their mind) to not hodl for long.
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April 18, 2024, 11:39:43 PM
 #27

Short-term holders are those who bought Bitcoin on average in the past 155 days or about the past 5 months,
~~~

Is it? What if some of the people who purchased Bitcoin at the same time frame are people who want to invest for the long run but that’s when they decided to enter the market? I’m not sure if there’s a way to get the short term holders because they don’t have a difference from those who buy for long term, the only difference is their will (in their mind) to not hodl for long.
They are classified as short-term holders because they have only a few days or months that they are holding their bitcoins. That's why, yes, we can never know if they will continue to go long-term. That's why they are still classified as short-term holders, and there's nothing wrong with that. As long as there are investors, bitcoin will survive, short-term or long-term. Anyway, if someone sells their holdings because they are not long-term, then there's still a lot of people buying bitcoin because we know how powerful and popular bitcoin is. That's why, this year, many people or new investors chose bitcoin, as it became hyped and proved that it could be in the same rank as those leading fiat currencies.
And also, there are a lot of short-term holders there because they only aim to earn through bitcoin, not thinking long-term and maximising the potential profit if they go long-term.

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April 19, 2024, 12:21:57 AM
 #28

Short-term holders are those who bought Bitcoin on average in the past 155 days or about the past 5 months,
~~~

Is it? What if some of the people who purchased Bitcoin at the same time frame are people who want to invest for the long run but that’s when they decided to enter the market? I’m not sure if there’s a way to get the short term holders because they don’t have a difference from those who buy for long term, the only difference is their will (in their mind) to not hodl for long.
If they want to hold for longer, then it is considered long-term. Right now we have no official basis for the definition of short-term and long-term holder or investment.

I also agree with you that the only difference is their will or in their mind, which is right as we have no official basis for long-term or short-term. We have different investors right now so for me, what OP shared was based on specific time frames.

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April 19, 2024, 03:11:00 AM
 #29

What's a real correction, by the way? Corrections always happen every once in a while. What makes a correction real?

The price has been making strides thanks to the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US. A new ATH has been achieved even before the halving. That's history. I think the halving at this point isn't priced in yet so I'm still seeing an upward movement overall. But, again, there are always corrections along the way. As a matter of fact, we are in the middle of it right now. We're more than $10,000 below the ATH which was just achieved around a month ago. That's almost 18% down. I consider this a real correction.

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April 19, 2024, 04:23:32 AM
 #30

Short-term holders are those who bought Bitcoin on average in the past 155 days or about the past 5 months, as they bought about 10% of the total supply of Bitcoin. If the pace of buying continues at the same price, the price will continue to move forward and strongly after halving, making it the first time we will see a year of rises without real correction.



The halving event is approaching and there has been a small correction in the past few days, but I still find this correction to be insignificant and not worth mentioning. But that doesn't mean we're entering bull season without a correction. I predict that if bitcoin continues to rise after the halving and reaches a new ATH, sooner or later a significant correction will occur. I believe that no market is strong enough to continuously increase without correction. In the second scenario, we may soon witness a correction in the coming days and then enter the bull season.
The market is still influenced and manipulated rather than based on supply and demand, so I don't trust these onchain data, IMO.

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April 19, 2024, 01:23:12 PM
 #31

Short-term holders are those who bought Bitcoin on average in the past 155 days or about the past 5 months, as they bought about 10% of the total supply of Bitcoin. If the pace of buying continues at the same price, the price will continue to move forward and strongly after halving, making it the first time we will see a year of rises without real correction.


Short term holders can also be those who have bought more than 155 days or 5 months. However, one of the reasons short-term holders are currently increasing is the Bitcoin halving. We can see that Bitcoin halving is only 10 hours away and Bitcoin halving will be completed within this 10 hour. During this time people will increase their short-term investment liquidity as they want to earn more profit by holding for a short period of time and we know that the bull market will happen a few months after the bitcoin halving and the market will definitely increase at that time. I also hold bitcoins but I haven't held bitcoins for too long but considering mine I've definitely held short term.

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Rabata
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April 19, 2024, 01:34:42 PM
 #32

Yes we can never plan for short term profit in case of Bitcoin. Only those who invest in this most volatile asset with a long-term plan will be able to profit according to their goals. I can suggest DCA strategy for long term holders and those who want to hold. It can be bought during both highs and lows of Bitcoin price. A long term holder can reduce his risk from Bitcoin by applying this strategy while he can create a favorable environment for his long holding. Short-term holders may lose money rather than profit from Bitcoin. A decision must be taken considering the short-term and long-term benefits before investing.

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