Short-term holders now have about ~1.8M BTC

[Husires]

Short-term holders are those who bought Bitcoin on average in the past 155 days or about the past 5 months, as they bought about 10% of the total supply of Bitcoin. If the pace of buying continues at the same price, the price will continue to move forward and strongly after halving, making it the first time we will see a year of rises without real correction.

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[btc78]

Short-term holders are those who bought Bitcoin on average in the past 155 days or about the past 5 months, as they bought about 10% of the total supply of Bitcoin. If the pace of buying continues at the same price, the price will continue to move forward and strongly after halving, making it the first time we will see a year of rises without real correction.

Bitcoin is extremely volatile so it’s difficult to say whether it’s going to go up or down. There could be some global news or event that could highly affect the price of bitcoin. I don’t think it’s accurately possible that the same rate of people buying will stay constant for a long period of time.

I have no doubts however that the price will be incredibly high post-halving but I’m not very convinced that there will be no correction anymore.

[Ambatman]

This is a bad sign to me and opposite of what you think.
These are holders that bought because of the halving not ones that are accumulating for their believe in the system.
I believe this is one of the reasons we experiencing this fall and volatile
Some are already taking profit. Imagine what will be done post or before halving
They going to drop some bags with the hope of buying cheaper.
To be sincere I would feel more at ease seeing $50K tomorrow than seeing $80K.
A fall is a momentum that gives rise to a pump.
Is like pulling a string, to go farther you have to push it backer _{imagine it's a word}
Once released boom it's off at speed that can scare you

[adaseb]

Yeah short term holders are generally not a good way to measure the demand for bitcoin. The best way is to look at the long term holders and as prices goes up, are they selling.

Usually you will see that during every ATH and during some massive dips, there are long term holders selling. This can give you a clue as when to start taking profit or not.

[bitbollo]

short term holders does not mean they will sell soon.
it would be more appropriate to call them "short term buyers" or people who have purchased in the last period.

Of course, after about ten years, users arrive capable of purchasing 10% of the supply in such a short time, it is clear that new interests and new types of buyers are now coming into play.
I see a significant correlation with ETF approval and this graph...

[martinex]

I think the chart has pointed in the direction of positive growth but also quite high. If so, we must prepare to return to the situation 6 months back, precisely in November 2023.  Well, whether it happens or not, at least Bitcoin has shown its strong capabilities and provides a strong level of trust where there is a long-term value increase for this potential digital currency for those who invest in it.

[davis196]

Short-term holders are those who bought Bitcoin on average in the past 155 days or about the past 5 months, as they bought about 10% of the total supply of Bitcoin. If the pace of buying continues at the same price, the price will continue to move forward and strongly after halving, making it the first time we will see a year of rises without real correction.

I agree with other forum members about one thing. Short terms BTC buyers aren't actual HODLers and you shouldn't call them HODLers.
The pace of buying can't continue "at the same price" because the price won't be the same. Some BTC buyers might be willing to buy at levels above sixty thousand dollars, while other buyers might be waiting for price drops, in order to buy at a lower price. If the price grows above 70K USD, some of the buyers might get discouraged by the high price. I'm sure that there will be FUD news and panic selling in the next few months, so the rapid growth shown on this chart won't be sustainable. The real bull run should start at the end of 2024.

[sheenshane]

Ain't know how we measure the long-term or short-term holders during these short-term buyers because when Bitcoin is in a bullrun, people trying to make a profit or we don't know who are those aiming for a higher profit than possible we can call them long-term holders.  On the opposite side, those people see a small profit and then quickly sell.

So there's no way to know them either short-term holders or long-term holders, as long as Bitcoin gains massive adoption the pace of buying will also be there.

I'm sure that there will be FUD news and panic selling in the next few months, so the rapid growth shown on this chart won't be sustainable.

Pretty common scenario and let's see who are those true long-term holders.

[Fuso.hp]

Short-term investors have bought a substantial amount of Bitcoin in the last five months and they have relatively sold Bitcoin. In the last few months the price of Bitcoin has been relatively higher in buying than selling and the price has increased due to which investors have regularly bought Bitcoin in the last few months. But if Bitcoin were to halve its value right now, there are many investors who would sell their Bitcoins instead of buying them. But whenever investors sell their bitcoins instead of buying them, the price of bitcoins will keep dumping again. But if the investors continue their buying during this season of halving then the price can recover but every investor usually refrains from investing in Bitcoin with large amount of money during this season.

[Z390]

If that happens then it is going to be a new one, because since the past years of Bitcoin there is always a big correction after the halving, it is why the present volatility is making sense to me, it should be the final flush out, just as expected, many people will eventually quit crypto in this same year before a new big move happens.
I still think that Bitcoin will dump even further, not instantly but gradually, this is what my trading chart is showing, Bitcoin is bearish and the 50k mark is very possible, if anyone want to dump Bitcoin they should just do it, we will see new buyers buying everything up in no time.

If you have been around crypto for a very long time you should not worry about someone dumping a huge bag, its been happening since the first day of Bitcoin, this won't stop a new all time high from happening, it is always a matter of time..

[MusaMohamed]

Short-term holders are those who bought Bitcoin on average in the past 155 days or about the past 5 months, as they bought about 10% of the total supply of Bitcoin. If the pace of buying continues at the same price, the price will continue to move forward and strongly after halving, making it the first time we will see a year of rises without real correction.

This rise without big correction is mainly from Bitcoin Spot ETFs because these Spot ETFs approved in middle of January and so far, it is about 3 months. The chart shows significant growth recent months and so far these Spot ETFs are holding about 838,746 bitcoins or $12,267M

https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
https://heyapollo.com/bitcoin-etf

Short term holders will buy more after the halving because halving will bring more new investors into Bitcoin market.

[Maus0728]

Yeah short term holders are generally not a good way to measure the demand for bitcoin. The best way is to look at the long term holders and as prices goes up, are they selling.

Usually you will see that during every ATH and during some massive dips, there are long term holders selling. This can give you a clue as when to start taking profit or not.

It's not accurate though, since there's some long-term hodlers that are also buying at the same time as those short-term hodlers, in fact this demand graph isn't the best one to use if we want to measure the growth or potential of bitcoin in the near future. Regarding long-term hodlers selling during dips, wouldn't that be the wrong way around to sell their stash of bitcoins since they're going to be selling at loss if not maximized profits? Maybe during the ATH, that can be a good indicator to sell bitcoin since that's what you should do, that's why we got whale alerts right?

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Well, to me this is not surprising. That when there is a bull market retail investors rush to buy is nothing new, just as it is nothing new that those who have bought now are the first to sell when the market starts to go down. They move according to 'buy high, sell low', the opposite of what they should be doing.

[kryptqnick]

I agree with the op that a very high amount of BTC in the hands of short-term holders is a positive thing for BTC price. Some might worry that it's a bad sign because if people aren't hodling long-term, they can as easily sell their BTC as they bought it and drive the price down. But, actually, short-term holding means that there's high liquidity, and that people are willing to exchange BTC. Because hodling is good for hodlers, but not good for a currency itself, as low liquidity would make the price artificial.

[arjunmujay]

I agree with the op that a very high amount of BTC in the hands of short-term holders is a positive thing for BTC price. Some might worry that it's a bad sign because if people aren't hodling long-term, they can as easily sell their BTC as they bought it and drive the price down. But, actually, short-term holding means that there's high liquidity, and that people are willing to exchange BTC. Because hodling is good for hodlers, but not good for a currency itself, as low liquidity would make the price artificial.

Short-term bitcoin holders will actually not have a big impact on bitcoin price movements, because they only hold a small portion of the bitcoin circulating on the market. But the function of retail Bitcoin holders also influences the continuity of Bitcoin, because they are the spearhead that can bring people who don't know about Bitcoin to try buying and selling Bitcoin.

If everyone chooses to invest in long-term Bitcoin, of course buying and selling activities will not occur every second. Instead, they only buy Bitcoin and continue to accumulate it until the investor's target is achieved, which could be decades away or at least until the next halving period.

[Die_empty]

This is a bad sign to me and opposite of what you think.
These are holders that bought because of the halving not ones that are accumulating for their believe in the system.

I assume you are calling long-term hodlers the ones who believe in the system. The truth is that almost every investor is in the Bitcoin space for profit making and you cannot stop anyone from buying or selling Bitcoin since the market is decentralized. There will always be buyers and sellers, hence no cause for alarm.

I believe this is one of the reasons we experiencing this fall and volatile
Some are already taking profit. Imagine what will be done post or before halving
They going to drop some bags with the hope of buying cheaper.

This is one of the benefit of Bitcoin. The price drop is an opportunity to buy at a cheaper price. One can hodl and sell when the price appreciates. The Bitcoin system is a self-correction mechanism but it will take knowledge, long-term planning and patience to take advantage of the benefits Bitcoin offers.

To be sincere I would feel more at ease seeing $50K tomorrow than seeing $80K.
A fall is a momentum that gives rise to a pump.
Is like pulling a string, to go farther you have to push it backer _{imagine it's a word}
Once released boom it's off at speed that can scare you

Bitcoin price is highly unpredictable and the Bitcoin Spot ETF has even made predictions more complicated. I will not also be surprised to see the price keep rising till early next year.  For now, we are expecting a correction which will give way to price increase.

[Zaguru12]

Of course, after about ten years, users arrive capable of purchasing 10% of the supply in such a short time, it is clear that new interests and new types of buyers are now coming into play.
I see a significant correlation with ETF approval and this graph...

No doubt about this correlation they are the investors that have been pushing this up high. Since the ETF approval on January 10 the nine institutions have been continuously stacking up bitcoin with the overall bitcoin bought within this time has been reported to be more than 900,000 bitcoin (~$60B), which shows that within this short period of time they Have definitely bought more than half of the 1.8 million reported. The only investor reported to be selling during this correction time is Gary scale.

So I also think they are the investors influencing this correlation, even bitcoin hitting a new ATH right before halving which is the first time definitely makes it clear.

[peter0425]

The Bitcoin system is a self-correction mechanism but it will take knowledge, long-term planning and patience to take advantage of the benefits Bitcoin offers.

Exactly despite all the risks tied down to it, many are still able to make money out of investing whether that is short-term or long-term.

People need to understand that in order to avoid losses you have to study religiously and find which type of investment method is applicable to you. You can not just dive in head first if you want to make great profits and as least possible mistakes

[yazher]

Yeah short term holders are generally not a good way to measure the demand for bitcoin. The best way is to look at the long term holders and as prices goes up, are they selling.

Usually you will see that during every ATH and during some massive dips, there are long term holders selling. This can give you a clue as when to start taking profit or not.

At the end of the day, long-term investment in bitcoins is the best way and is recommended for everyone because you don't need to stress yourself about it once you decide to buy bitcoins using the money you can afford to lose because sometimes the crypto market might not get increase as shown in the picture. After all, the volatility is mostly happening, and the price drops due to some decline in the crypto market. But if you are a long-term investor, all of that scenario is nothing to you and you just completely ignore it because you know sometimes that something like this will happen before the big bull-runs in the future.

[tranthidung]

I agree with the op that a very high amount of BTC in the hands of short-term holders is a positive thing for BTC price. Some might worry that it's a bad sign because if people aren't hodling long-term, they can as easily sell their BTC as they bought it and drive the price down. But, actually, short-term holding means that there's high liquidity, and that people are willing to exchange BTC. Because hodling is good for hodlers, but not good for a currency itself, as low liquidity would make the price artificial.

Are they worry opposite to what can cause a market dump?

Market will be dumped with massive selling pressure from whales, institutional investors, not from retail investors that are mostly short term holders. I understand that inexperienced people have many uncertainty and they can feel fearful with many things. This one is one of their wrong thinking and bad fear on things which are not too much important.

If they zoom out and discover that long term investors get very high ROI with investment in Bitcoin and holding it for years ^[1], they will no longer be fearful with short term holders.

^[1] https://casebitcoin.com/charts