WATCH the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting May 1, 2024

[Wind_FURY]

What Jerome Powell will be saying in his speech will determine if they continue on with the plan to cut rates three times this year, or not.

It will be live in the Schwab Network's YouTube channel, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWhVz1ozr1o

What's are your guesses? Will Powell be Dovish? Or Hawkish?

I believe he'll say that it will still be "higher for longer" and that they will continue be "data dependent". I'm confident that he will also say that there WILL be a "soft landing", WHICH is truly LOW probability.

[DeathAngel]

With the current look at crypto & stocks I think people are predicting that rates will stay the same & we’ll be told higher for longer. I’m not sure how much more of this the economy can take though until everything cascades down. Hopefully he is slightly dovish & Bitcoin recovers but I’m not confident of it.

[Wind_FURY]

With the current look at crypto & stocks I think people are predicting that rates will stay the same & we’ll be told higher for longer. I’m not sure how much more of this the economy can take though until everything cascades down. Hopefully he is slightly dovish & Bitcoin recovers but I’m not confident of it.

The unemployment rate is still very low. Unless they cooked those numbers, I believe the Federal Reserve has until the end of 2024 to keep sticking with their "soft landing" narrative. - Until something breaks. 👀

But I do believe that Jerome Powell might postpone the planning of three rate cuts that he has been using to keep the stock market from crashing.

[DeathAngel]

With the current look at crypto & stocks I think people are predicting that rates will stay the same & we’ll be told higher for longer. I’m not sure how much more of this the economy can take though until everything cascades down. Hopefully he is slightly dovish & Bitcoin recovers but I’m not confident of it.

But I do believe that Jerome Powell might postpone the planning of three rate cuts that he has been using to keep the stock market from crashing.

I agree, a few economists think we might get one in 2024, possibly December. I just hope they keep the economy propped up for long enough so we can get a full cryptocurrency bull run without any interruptions or anything neutering it like last cycle with FTX & China ban.

[Smack That Ace]

With recently published data related to inflation, unemployment index...it is unlikely that the Fed will soon lower interest rates and will even continue to increase interest rates if inflation increases again.
Personally, I believe that he will continue to maintain a more hawkish attitude than ever when economic indicators are not as expected. Perhaps the market has somewhat anticipated what Jerome Powell will announce, and that may be the reason why we are seeing another round of dumping today. The market reacted before the FOMC meeting took place, and I think there will be no further volatility after the meeting ends.

[Wind_FURY]

With recently published data related to inflation, unemployment index...it is unlikely that the Fed will soon lower interest rates and will even continue to increase interest rates if inflation increases again.

Yes, no they won't because the labor market is still strong. But keep checking those numbers. Because if something breaks and the unemployment rate surges uncontrollably, expect an emergency pivot to QE and rate cuts.

Personally, I believe that he will continue to maintain a more hawkish attitude than ever when economic indicators are not as expected. Perhaps the market has somewhat anticipated what Jerome Powell will announce, and that may be the reason why we are seeing another round of dumping today. The market reacted before the FOMC meeting took place, and I think there will be no further volatility after the meeting ends.

The Federal Reserve has actually been more dovish during their recent meetings that's why S&P 500 has been going up. Jerome Powell is still saying that a soft landing as highly probable, and that he expects three rate cuts later this year. During his speech yesterday, he said that that he doesn't expect to have any more rate hikes this year = Dovish.

[MusaMohamed]

The Federal Reserve has actually been more dovish during their recent meetings that's why S&P 500 has been going up. Jerome Powell is still saying that a soft landing as highly probable, and that he expects three rate cuts later this year. During his speech yesterday, he said that that he doesn't expect to have any more rate hikes this year = Dovish.

I did not believe in terms like soft landing or technical recession because governments want to use those adjusted terms to mislead citizens about what's actually going on and severity of it.

When they say technical recession, we know recession has been here for a while.

Recent tightening of FED and some stricter regulations on banks, a latest bank bankruptcy don't give me feeling about a good soft landing at all. Powell will try to give us a soft landing because he is asked to do this in a year of President Election.

[Husires]

I expected the cuts to begin before June, but it seems that the Fed will be more cautious and we are hearing about three interest rate cuts instead of 6 as expected in the past.
Geopolitical influences may affect the Federal Reserve’s decisions. The world is on a hot plate, and there are elections and the possibility of war that may affect energy prices. The effect of energy prices has a direct effect on inflation.

[Wind_FURY]

The Federal Reserve has actually been more dovish during their recent meetings that's why S&P 500 has been going up. Jerome Powell is still saying that a soft landing as highly probable, and that he expects three rate cuts later this year. During his speech yesterday, he said that that he doesn't expect to have any more rate hikes this year = Dovish.

I did not believe in terms like soft landing or technical recession because governments want to use those adjusted terms to mislead citizens about what's actually going on and severity of it.

When they say technical recession, we know recession has been here for a while.

"Technical Recession" is merely an economic term to indicate that an economy is already in a recession after two quarters of negative growth. That's just the official definition for economists. There's nothing wrong with the term, but what the U.S. government was doing during, I believe 2022, was the changed the definition and made it three quarters of negative growth.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Recent tightening of FED and some stricter regulations on banks, a latest bank bankruptcy don't give me feeling about a good soft landing at all. Powell will try to give us a soft landing because he is asked to do this in a year of President Election.

Jerome Powell is trying to give the Oligarchs their soft landing, but there's a higher probability that a recession should happen to remove the stickiness of inflation.

[stompix]

The Federal Reserve has actually been more dovish during their recent meetings that's why S&P 500 has been going up. Jerome Powell is still saying that a soft landing as highly probable, and that he expects three rate cuts later this year. During his speech yesterday, he said that that he doesn't expect to have any more rate hikes this year = Dovish.

I did not believe in terms like soft landing or technical recession because governments want to use those adjusted terms to mislead citizens about what's actually going on and severity of it.
When they say technical recession, we know recession has been here for a while.

What technical recession are you talking about?
The US GDP has grown by 3.4 in the last quarter of 2023 and by approximately 1.6 in the first of 2024, it hasn't seen a decline since Q2 in 2022.
No matter the hate the thing is that the economy still grows, jobs are still there, and unemployment I still low, the only tragic things that is happening right now is all the doomsday fanatical at zerohedge cutting their wrist as another global recession or economy meltdown is avoided.

Seriously, we have been talking about these for 3 years already, time to simply give up and watch as there is no apocalypse happening!

Jerome Powell is trying to give the Oligarchs their soft landing, but there's a higher probability that a recession should happen to remove the stickiness of inflation.

So why not short the market with leverage then? 

[pooya87]

Federal Reserve says interest rates will stay at two-decade high until inflation further cools

You can't really expect any kind of interest rate cuts when the government in office is increasing the national debt by a trillion dollar every 100 days!!!. The worst part is that every day they keep the interest rates high they have to pay a ridiculous amount of "interest" on those bonds they've been dumping on any idiot who buys them which would further increase inflation...

We're also seeing its effect on bitcoin price although I wouldn't say this crash is all because of it but it is still a contributing factor. Keep in mind that interest rates in a lot of countries around the world are still high and they are all causing recession that in turn affects bitcoin price.

[yhiaali3]

I believe he'll say that it will still be "higher for longer" and that they will continue be "data dependent". I'm confident that he will also say that there WILL be a "soft landing", WHICH is truly LOW probability.

Yes, exactly as you expected, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements yesterday that it will remain “higher for a longer period” and that it will remain “data dependent”:

“With regard to reducing interest... our next decision will be based on the economic data that will come to light in the coming period, and we will not reduce interest until the data confirms to us that inflation is declining towards our target of 2 percent,” adding, “The stubbornness of inflation and the situation of the labor market are two major factors in the issue.” Determine the interest rate.

This means that the factors determining the interest rate reduction are the stubbornness of inflation and the labor market situation, according to him. This, of course, means that it will remain for a longer period and whether it is reduced or maintained as it is will depend on future economic data about inflation and the labor market.

We probably won't expect a reduction for a long time.

[bocyaj]

Federal Reserve says interest rates will stay at two-decade high until inflation further cools

You can't really expect any kind of interest rate cuts when the government in office is increasing the national debt by a trillion dollar every 100 days!!!. The worst part is that every day they keep the interest rates high they have to pay a ridiculous amount of "interest" on those bonds they've been dumping on any idiot who buys them which would further increase inflation...

We're also seeing its effect on bitcoin price although I wouldn't say this crash is all because of it but it is still a contributing factor. Keep in mind that interest rates in a lot of countries around the world are still high and they are all causing recession that in turn affects bitcoin price.

If the country debt increase like trillion dollars in 100 days,it was the big drawback the country economy at the end.Even the Paris will became a developing country,if it face the debt issue like this.Most of the country economy directly and indirectly influences the bitcoin price,because most of the country had legalised the bitcoin and cryptocurrency to get the taxes from the people who had their nose in the cryptocurrency.The inflation had both the effect,it help the country to grow above the damaged level and back to the normal economy.Some economists had their arguments of inflation was the important one for the country to increase their currency value in the world market.Now the bitcoin price was affected by many factors,this seems to be the prime factor and correction after the bull run was additional reason.

[Wind_FURY]

Jerome Powell is trying to give the Oligarchs their soft landing, but there's a higher probability that a recession should happen to remove the stickiness of inflation.

So why not short the market with leverage then? 

Or why not go on a safer journey, why not HODL Bitcoin and make that a form of shorting legacy finance?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It's volatile, and we will absolutely get negative price movement, but truly zoom out and tell me it isn't in a continuous bull cycle from the start - trading vs. fiat. It would be a lie if anyone said that it's not.

[Wind_FURY]

Jerome Powell spoke in Amsterdam, during a Foreign Banker's Association summit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TufaG29B7w

He said that he "thinks it's probably a matter of staying at the current policy rate for longer".

Perhaps he's saying that he has just cancelled the three rate cuts that he said the Federal Reserve has planned later in the year, no? My viewpoint has not changed. I truly believe that the Federal Reserve will cut rates for the wrong reasons. They will do it with an expectation that something is about to break.

[DeathAngel]

Jerome Powell spoke in Amsterdam, during a Foreign Banker's Association summit.

He said that he "thinks it's probably a matter of staying at the current policy rate for longer".

Perhaps he's saying that he has just cancelled the three rate cuts that he said the Federal Reserve has planned later in the year, no? My viewpoint has not changed. I truly believe that the Federal Reserve will cut rates for the wrong reasons. They will do it with an expectation that something is about to break.

I think they’ll cut rates to try & help them win the election. The cost of living crisis is running wild, people are struggling. The election is coming up soon, I think they will cut rates to try & appease voters, to win votes. If they don’t cut rates, I think people will blame their struggles on The Democrats & vote Trump. Obviously the Dems don’t want that so they will lower rates to appease voters. 

[Wind_FURY]

Jerome Powell spoke in Amsterdam, during a Foreign Banker's Association summit.

He said that he "thinks it's probably a matter of staying at the current policy rate for longer".

Perhaps he's saying that he has just cancelled the three rate cuts that he said the Federal Reserve has planned later in the year, no? My viewpoint has not changed. I truly believe that the Federal Reserve will cut rates for the wrong reasons. They will do it with an expectation that something is about to break.

I think they’ll cut rates to try & help them win the election. The cost of living crisis is running wild, people are struggling. The election is coming up soon, I think they will cut rates to try & appease voters, to win votes. If they don’t cut rates, I think people will blame their struggles on The Democrats & vote Trump. Obviously the Dems don’t want that so they will lower rates to appease voters. 

They can't because inflation is sticky. If the cut rates now, it would make inflation surge. How would that help them win the election?

BUT there's one reason that could make Powell cut rates and pivot to Quantitative Easing though. But it will be for the wrong reason - A Recession.