Could China (or similar) take control of Bitcoin?

[stompix]

As of last September, China had 21% of the world-wide hashrate for Bitcoin:

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/by-country/

So that "ban" isn't really doing very much for that either.

That's not last September, that's when the article was updated.
Cambridge, which is the main source quoted there stopped doing any kind of regional research at the end of 2021.
https://ccaf.io/cbnsi/cbeci/mining_map
The 21% number is an approximation from December 2021!

To take control of bitcoin, you need to take control of 80% if not all the networks and even at that moment, you'd still need a lot of power and money (for the equipment) to be able to pull it off and China's lacking in money already

You see this is why I love the contradictions people keep falling for in this field
On one side we have the pitchforks lighting up when we talk about bitcoin energy consumption as we compare them with Christmas lights and then we claim it's impossible to make an attack because it requires a lot of power which no country has...so...which one?

First, there is a mistake in the percentages, they don't even need 50% of the current hashrate!
They could simply buy 3 billion worth of equipment (resell price) so way cheaper produced and with that 30% added they would force a ton of other miners in bankruptcy, taking over the hashrate pie, so rather than adding 600exahash to subdue the current one they could simply replace them by bankrupting and making mining less profitable for other miners, while still making some money.
Instead of 600 exa costing 12 billion in gear, it could theoretically be done with half of that, again at resell not producing cost, Beijing municipality has a 110 billion yearly budget!

[graphite]

They could simply buy 3 billion worth of equipment (resell price) so way cheaper produced and with that 30% added they would force a ton of other miners in bankruptcy, taking over the hashrate pie, so rather than adding 600exahash to subdue the current one they could simply replace them by bankrupting and making mining less profitable for other miners, while still making some money.

This is a good point. They could also cause a death spiral by getting 51% for just a few days causing bitcoin price to tank and miners to go bankrupt much faster and making it easier to maintain the attackers >51% hashrate. So might only require ~100mil worth of total power to end bitcoin. The limiting factor in both cases seems to be the ASIC miners but china has a monopoly on that.

Im not sure if China would have to build additional power plants for this or not. If so, that would greatly increases the cost to pull this off. They would need 12-20GW of power and I think China is capable of producing ~900GW as a whole country.

[Mpamaegbu]

The notion is this: although taking over 50% of the Bitcoin hashrate would be a practical impossibility for any private actor or even a small country, China, as a country, has at times hosted over 50% of Bitcoin's hashrate, and it's thus plausible they could make this happen again if they wanted to.

I don't know why I feel repulsed whenever I see a mention of China in relation to cryptocurrency, anywhere. I guess it has to do with how China let this industry down by banning crypto activities in that country in 2017. That action was one that hit me hard at the time as a newbie in this industry. Then China was in a lead position in the space with lots of mining hash from there. That was then. In today's reality  I don't think anyone should as little as accord China a second thought once this industry is concerned.

[legiteum]

The notion is this: although taking over 50% of the Bitcoin hashrate would be a practical impossibility for any private actor or even a small country, China, as a country, has at times hosted over 50% of Bitcoin's hashrate, and it's thus plausible they could make this happen again if they wanted to.

I don't know why I feel repulsed whenever I see a mention of China in relation to cryptocurrency, anywhere. I guess it has to do with how China let this industry down by banning crypto activities in that country in 2017. That action was one that hit me hard at the time as a newbie in this industry. Then China was in a lead position in the space with lots of mining hash from there. That was then. In today's reality  I don't think anyone should as little as accord China a second thought once this industry is concerned.

It's still legal to hold and trade Bitcoin in China. All they have done is precluded their banks from holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets.

China still contains a sizable percentage of worldwide Bitcoin mining, so it is by no means "banned" there.

And even if China hated Bitcoin, that doesn't mean they wouldn't attempt to take it over.

[harapan]

In as much as China is against the utilization and bitcoin adoptions,China could possibly want to totally get all round control over bitcoin.
However,China's competence to completely take control of bitcoin could be at 0.1 level.Before ever any country wants to authoritates bit coin,she should be capable of solving at least the threatening and consumable activities that are going on or going to occur.
China will not engage bitcoin or whatever they intend doing to bitcoin cannot be predicted or managed under normal circumstances.

[YUriy1991]

China still contains a sizable percentage of worldwide Bitcoin mining, so it is by no means "banned" there.

And even if China hated Bitcoin, that doesn't mean they wouldn't attempt to take it over.

True and the conditions are like that if we pay attention. Well, of course China currently has a large percentage in terms of hashing network dominance and potentially in terms of their future dominance of BTC but my view is they are not major key players in the current global cryptocurrency landscape and that is just their Long-Term Strategy.

Simply because everything will lead to a shift in the world economy, of course, it is unlikely that it will be controlled and fully and will depend on one country or single player because many things and factos also affect the growth of this industry.

[davis196]

1. Is this technically possible?

2. What would be the technical implications of China doing this?

3. What would be the geopolitical implications?

4. What would this do the broader cryptocurrency sector?

1.It is technically possible, but the costs are higher than the potential profits.

2.What technical implications? I don't know what you are talking about.

3.I don't think that China taking control over Bitcoin will have any geopolitical implications. Maybe the only consequence would be the USA and the western world Banning Bitcoin.

4.If China takes over Bitcoin, most of the BTC developers, miners and users would fork BTC and move to the forked version of BTC. The version of BTC that was taken over by China would become useless and worthless(which makes the whole process of "taking control over Bitcoin" totally pointless).

3.

[Cryptomultiplier]

This came up as a side discussion in another thread, and I thought it would be interesting as a top-level discussion here.

The notion is this: although taking over 50% of the Bitcoin hashrate would be a practical impossibility for any private actor or even a small country, China, as a country, has at times hosted over 50% of Bitcoin's hashrate, and it's thus plausible they could make this happen again if they wanted to.

And whomever controls over 50% of the hashrate can dictate the software in use, and/or dictate the contents of the blockchain. As the theory goes, if China wanted to wreak havoc on the world economy, or if it wanted to extract a ransom, or if it simply wanted to profit by inserting its own blocks, then... it could. They could do anything. Perhaps China could decide that Satoshi's blocks should be given away to charity. Maybe they change the architecture so that it worked better in China, or conformed to their "laws" or something.

So this brings up questions:

1. Is this technically possible?

2. What would be the technical implications of China doing this?

3. What would be the geopolitical implications?

4. What would this do the broader cryptocurrency sector?

5. Have major governments e.g. the US and NATO countries ever (publicly) announced any contingency planning around this problem? Putting a $1.5T asset at risk is something that could rattle the entire world economy. This seems like something they would at least think through?

Looking forward to people's thoughts...

Am going to speak from the point of recent happenings and it is that, China is really and firstly more interested in making the BRICS currency their own local fiat currency, of which is the Yen. They want to dominate and along with other interested countries, create a new world order that means dedollarization in essence.
It is quite possible that China could decide to tweak cryptocurrencies or create a new kind of Blockchain that may have its own coin specific for the Chinese community, but that has already been done as we see Hashgraph technology being almost similar to the blockchain and even if China does decide to create its own coin for it's economy, it still won't be as original as Bitcoin and that's a major consolation.

[kryptqnick]

Around 50% of hashrate being under control of a certain company and located in China is a very different thing from China as a state being in control. China seems to have chosen a policy of avoiding and restricting Bitcoin, with an exception to Hong Kong.
I don't think that any major economy would try to nationalize major Bitcoin mining farms to gain control of hashrate, and I don't think it's that simple to do it because if someone suddenly creates a huge demand, the prices (for mining equipment and mining companies) will rise, so it'll be a race. There's just not enough motivation to attempt to do something like this and to spend tons of money on it.

[MusaMohamed]

Around 50% of hashrate being under control of a certain company and located in China is a very different thing from China as a state being in control.

Bitcoin miners, if don't have their mining ASICs physically and geographically installed in China mainland, but are in other places, can quickly configure their ASICs and connect them to other pools.

China ban on Bitcoin mining years ago only cause a Great Mining Migration to other countries around China and to the USA. It did not kill Bitcoin network but make its stronger by being more decentralized. China government opened a Pandora box years ago.

China seems to have chosen a policy of avoiding and restricting Bitcoin, with an exception to Hong Kong.

Because Hong Kong is still not fully under control of China in politics and other things. China mainland government always want to bring Hong Kong back to their control and will continue to do this in future.

[stompix]

Am going to speak from the point of recent happenings and it is that, China is really and firstly more interested in making the BRICS currency their own local fiat currency, of which is the Yen. They want to dominate and along with other interested countries, create a new world order that means dedollarization in essence.

Yuan, not yen, the yen is Japan's currency!
This is actually funny when people talk about de dollarization and China replacing the $ but half of the population doesn't even know their currency name!

4.If China takes over Bitcoin, most of the BTC developers, miners and users would fork BTC and move to the forked version of BTC. The version of BTC that was taken over by China would become useless and worthless(which makes the whole process of "taking control over Bitcoin" totally pointless).

As long as you don't change the algorithm the attack will not cease, and changing that and render all legit miners useless will be just as bad, and even so will just earn you a bit of time till they build the new asics. Even PoS will not be a solution, they could simply buy their validators and good luck stopping that!

[Medusah]

First, there is a mistake in the percentages, they don't even need 50% of the current hashrate!

In theory, there's no specific amount required to launch a network attack.  You only need at least 50% to sustain the attack indefinitely, although, as you rightly pointed out, initiating such an attack would likely lead to a significant drop in price (unless the attacker exclusively mines empty blocks, good luck moving coins in that case, lol).

The pressing question is: Why would China or any other nation undertake such an action?  What would they stand to gain from it?  Investing in and implementing new tax regulations could offer them benefits, providing additional revenue sources for their tax systems. 

[VanKushFamily.com]

This came up as a side discussion in another thread, and I thought it would be interesting as a top-level discussion here.

The notion is this: although taking over 50% of the Bitcoin hashrate would be a practical impossibility for any private actor or even a small country, China, as a country, has at times hosted over 50% of Bitcoin's hashrate, and it's thus plausible they could make this happen again if they wanted to.

And whomever controls over 50% of the hashrate can dictate the software in use, and/or dictate the contents of the blockchain. As the theory goes, if China wanted to wreak havoc on the world economy, or if it wanted to extract a ransom, or if it simply wanted to profit by inserting its own blocks, then... it could. They could do anything. Perhaps China could decide that Satoshi's blocks should be given away to charity. Maybe they change the architecture so that it worked better in China, or conformed to their "laws" or something.

So this brings up questions:

1. Is this technically possible?

2. What would be the technical implications of China doing this?

3. What would be the geopolitical implications?

4. What would this do the broader cryptocurrency sector?

5. Have major governments e.g. the US and NATO countries ever (publicly) announced any contingency planning around this problem? Putting a $1.5T asset at risk is something that could rattle the entire world economy. This seems like something they would at least think through?

Looking forward to people's thoughts...

If China did that there would just be a Fork, one way or the Other, China would Fork to their New Chain, or a Rebel Organization, maybe Bitcoin Foundation at that Time might be considered the Rebel Cause at less than 50% Consensus, and then they would Fork. Someone would Fork. And this was like the 1999 to 2000 Bug where Everyone thought the Missiles would Launch and we would all Die, when this Happened with Ethereum it was just nothing, it was no Big Deal, both Chains actually Continued to Work because some People didn't Switch.

Ethereum did it because of a Hacker, but if there were a Serious Disagreement it would be the same. Like how Aggroed Wrote a Steemit Magna Carta and they all left and Created HIVE. STEEM and HIVE were Built for Forks. There is no Reason for those and BLURT to be the Only ones, there should be 500 Steemit Clones. But China actually is kind of mad about that maybe, or was and didn't understand. By now there should be Universities in China Studying the STEEM Technology, Graphene. And all of this Exists between China and kind of American Anarcho-Capitalists is who is on the Other Side.

Most People don't even Notice, but it does Shape some of the Finances in American Politics. STEEM Platforms Fund Travel, they are Travel Blog Earnings Engines once an Account is Established, and Travel is Part of it Regularly. And it is also a Political Finance Engine in the same way. STEEM Platforms can Finance anything, like GoFund me but Better, more kind of "Democratic" You might Call it. But there are still so few Platforms we could also say they are anything but Democratic because there aren't 500 Options with 500 Themes and 500 Teams of Devs and Business People Running them. But all of this is Good for Money, and if it Happened with Bitcoin, it would be similar. It would matter where it Mattered, and most People wouldn't understand it.

Most of the International Problems are about kind of Eastern European Hackers asking for Ransoms. That has been a Big Problem. But not just them, that is just a Generalization when I said Eastern European, a lot of the Ransoms do come from there.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

The notion is this: although taking over 50% of the Bitcoin hashrate would be a practical impossibility for any private actor or even a small country, China, as a country, has at times hosted over 50% of Bitcoin's hashrate, and it's thus plausible they could make this happen again if they wanted to.

It wasn't the Chinese government that were incharge of the 50% hashrate but it was individual miners located in China and they'll all have different beliefs so this attack isn't possible. We have core believers of Bitcoin that are miners in China and they won't want anything to happen to Bitcoin Blockchain so they won't be in support of the Idea if it gets proposal by the government. We aren't the only ones tired of the government centralized fiats system and wants
a decentralized currency to succeed so you can forget about this thought of yours, nothing is happening to the way Bitcoin was built to operate, if after so many hard forks, nothing has happened and the Bitcoin Blockchain hasn't been affected, there's nothing any government will do to take down Bitcoin and be successful. The Chinese government have probably thought about this and didn't see a way they can pull it off.

5. Have major governments e.g. the US and NATO countries ever (publicly) announced any contingency planning around this problem? Putting a $1.5T asset at risk is something that could rattle the entire world economy. This seems like something they would at least think through?

They first have to accept Bitcoin before they can start planning any counter measure if this event was to come to reality but since the governments don't care about Bitcoin they won't have plans for this in their books. The Chinese governments are attacking Bitcoin and other related services in their country, other governments are doing the same thing in their various countries so what we should be more concerned about is the government coming to an alliance and try to ban Bitcoin globally instead of having this thought of yours but I get it as it's a discussion that shouldn't be swept under the rug.

[Iamgoat]

I don't know why I feel repulsed whenever I see a mention of China in relation to cryptocurrency, anywhere. I guess it has to do with how China let this industry down by banning crypto activities in that country in 2017. That action was one that hit me hard at the time as a newbie in this industry. Then China was in a lead position in the space with lots of mining hash from there. That was then. In today's reality  I don't think anyone should as little as accord China a second thought once this industry is concerned.

Going by the population of China and their technological advancements, China has the potential power to take control of the Bitcoin technology if they chose to. I am saying this on the basis of the two factors I mentioned earlier, which are the population and the advancements in the technology of the country and amongst its people. Although, we do not know the founder of Bitcoin by identity due to his anonymity, however, from his name, Satoshi Nakomoto, he is an Asian by thoughts and could have come from those axis. Interestingly, China is great enough to take charge of the financial technologies but may not be able to do so, because the government in itself have banned the adoption of such.

[Webetcoins]

To take control of bitcoin, you need to take control of 80% if not all the networks and even at that moment, you'd still need a lot of power and money (for the equipment) to be able to pull it off and China's lacking in money already if you're keeping up with the Chinese stuff that's reported by investigative reporters so I don't believe that it's in their agenda to take over the bitcoin network anytime soon, pretty sure that whatever they're doing now, bitcoin or any cryptocurrency has no relation to it or anything like that.

Why would they need 80% and not just 51%?

China has no problem finding the money to build large scale infrastructure projects. I don't see how it wouldn't be possible for them to get 5-10 billion dollars worth of ASIC miners. Also with the current block reward it would only require 32mil USD a day worth of power to produce majority of the hash power. Based on my rough math this would require a 12GW power source and china has a large number of power plants to spread that over. For reference Chinas largest power plant is Three Gorges Dam with 22GW.

51% is smaller than 80% but why only 80% and not 100%, for it to be sure? Hehe. Yes they have a good budget but I think they aren't only interested on it because if they do then they already did it long time ago and there will ever be no banning that will occur in both BTC and BTC mining. 2 to 3 billion dollars and 32 million a day worth of power is a lot of money and all of this is for the hopes of controlling BTC?

But, what can they get after this? To earn more profit? However, I think people will stop supporting BTC once they figured out that it is now fully centralized and China can only get a bad reputation which I'm sure they don't like for it to happen.

[Iranus]

Could China (or similar) take control of Bitcoin?

But OP, I want to ask you why China wants to control bitcoin and what is their purpose? Have you ever thought about the scenario if China or any country controls bitcoin but the rest of the world bans bitcoin to avoid manipulation from China, would controlling bitcoin be beneficial?

Remember that bitcoin's value comes from its decentralized nature and if someone can control it then it means it is no longer decentralized so no one needs it anymore. The idea of controlling the bitcoin network makes no sense, so I never thought this would happen.

[legiteum]

Could China (or similar) take control of Bitcoin?

But OP, I want to ask you why China wants to control bitcoin and what is their purpose? Have you ever thought about the scenario if China or any country controls bitcoin but the rest of the world bans bitcoin to avoid manipulation from China, would controlling bitcoin be beneficial?

Several posts here have made the point about whether China would want to do this, but that wasn't my question. My question was whether they could, and the answer to that question is yes.

Remember that bitcoin's value comes from its decentralized nature and if someone can control it then it means it is no longer decentralized so no one needs it anymore. The idea of controlling the bitcoin network makes no sense, so I never thought this would happen.

China or some other country or entity with similar resources could absolutely take over Bitcoin if they wanted to. Decentralization makes a network resistant to a take-over, but no network is takeover-proof.

[Iranus]

Could China (or similar) take control of Bitcoin?

But OP, I want to ask you why China wants to control bitcoin and what is their purpose? Have you ever thought about the scenario if China or any country controls bitcoin but the rest of the world bans bitcoin to avoid manipulation from China, would controlling bitcoin be beneficial?

Several posts here have made the point about whether China would want to do this, but that wasn't my question. My question was whether they could, and the answer to that question is yes.

Remember that bitcoin's value comes from its decentralized nature and if someone can control it then it means it is no longer decentralized so no one needs it anymore. The idea of controlling the bitcoin network makes no sense, so I never thought this would happen.

China or some other country or entity with similar resources could absolutely take over Bitcoin if they wanted to. Decentralization makes a network resistant to a take-over, but no network is takeover-proof.

Talking about whether China or any country can control bitcoin or not, I think there will be no exact answer. The answer "yes" is just everyone's speculation, none of us know the true strength of the Chinese government, how can they arbitrarily give such an answer? Also, if you consider that they can control bitcoin, that means they can also destroy it but why haven't they done that so far and can only issue a ban?

No country is strong enough to control, stop or destroy bitcoin. That will only happen if all governments join hands, but this scenario is even more unlikely. That's why governments that don't like bitcoin can only issue a ban and can't do anything else.

 

[legiteum]

Talking about whether China or any country can control bitcoin or not, I think there will be no exact answer. The answer "yes" is just everyone's speculation, none of us know the true strength of the Chinese government, how can they arbitrarily give such an answer? Also, if you consider that they can control bitcoin, that means they can also destroy it but why haven't they done that so far and can only issue a ban?

No country is strong enough to control, stop or destroy bitcoin. That will only happen if all governments join hands, but this scenario is even more unlikely. That's why governments that don't like bitcoin can only issue a ban and can't do anything else.

 

No, as we discussed here, China absolutely could take over Bitcoin if they wanted to, as could any country with their resources. I agree that they probably don't want to, but that doesn't mean that it's impossible, or that Bitcoin is some sort of magical force that can withstand any conceivable attack.