Can Monero survive exchange de-listings and low merchant adoption?

[NeuroticFish]

Many of them are still scared even by Bitcoin. The crypto-is-for-criminals narrative was more catchy than I would have expected.
With Bitcoin is simple: greed beats fear. With Monero, I fear it'll take quite some time, especially as it never seemed really focused on big rewards for investors.

Imho Monero's chance/choice is to be noticed by somebody important (like Dogecoin was noticed by Elon) as the proper currency for daily expenses.

I doubt a celebrity or influential person will endorse Monero. Especially when it's labeled as a "coin for criminals" by mainstream governments. Would anyone want their reputation tainted by supporting a controversial cryptocurrency? I think not. I'm afraid Monero will remain a niche to those who truly care about privacy. It won't be able to reach higher market prices in the long term, but at least it will remain useful.

All trading activities will be performed on decentralized exchanges, P2P exchanges, and in-person (F2F). Merchant adoption will continue to decline out of fear from government prosecution. It'll be a dark future for Monero and the crypto industry as a whole. With "Wall Street" in the game, we should expect regulations to become stricter in the long run. Nobody cares as long as they're able to make a profit, right?

While I do understand your point, I'll say "never say never".
Bitcoin was pretty much also seen as a coin for criminals and geeks at some point too, let's not forget that.
Of course, calling Bitcoin like that while it's an openly visible ledger is stupid, and of course, Monero is better suited for that job, hence some will always call it like that.

But I don't think that Monero beats fiat as "coin for criminals". And I hope that soon enough people will wake up an stop bashing this very good coin.
Also, as you said, Monero is not easy to get and not easy to convert back, hence it's not easy for the criminals to deal with it.

This being said, I hope that people will get to see Monero's value before it becomes too "niche".


PS. In the past few weeks Monero's price vs Bitcoin has recovered a little (and that's more than how much Bitcoin price vs fiat has dropped). Any idea why?

[Abu-Naim]

Do you think Monero will be able to survive this? Does it still have a future? As for LocalMonero, what other options are available for P2P trading? Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

When it comes to privacy, many investors prefer Monero to Bitcoin because they have similar future of decentralization. I don't know why some exchanges are de-listing Monero, is it because they are not able to control any of their affairs due to decentralized nature.
Some good exchanges still have monero in their list of coins, I don't think it will be delisted in all exchanges.
But I never hear any news that people are using monero for criminal activities because only that will be the main reason to de-list the cooin with immediate effect.

[d5000]

PS. In the past few weeks Monero's price vs Bitcoin has recovered a little (and that's more than how much Bitcoin price vs fiat has dropped). Any idea why?

I'm not the only one who had predicted that recovery.

During the dump near the Binance delisting, there was massive demand for Monero on some of the exchanges who still offer it. On Exch, for example, they had to set the fee to 20% to protect their XMR holdings. Still their fee for BTC -> XMR is higher (5%) than XMR -> BTC (0,5%) which indicates that the demand for Monero is solidly above the available supply.

The Binance delisting dump was thus probably simply a undervaluation, and it is now correcting to its "fair" value. The way the dump itself evolved can be easily explained: first, traders on Binance tend to be retailers and thus have weak hands, and they simply panicked and sold (also amid fears the XMR could be "banned" everywhere). Second, during some time XMR withdrawals were stopped on Binance and that had probably deepened the panic.

So there are strong indicators that at the time where XMR traded around $110-130 there were some factors in play that did not really indicate a slowdown in real demand, so the price was distorted at that moment. If we look at the Monero transaction chart, for example, the numbers are quite stable. There were spam attacks in April/May which don't count of course, but after those wave it seems the number of transactions per day returned to a slightly higher level than before, and there are no significant changes between before/after the delisting. And there are decentralized market/exchange projects based on Monero which seem to have been making progress lately too, so the hope may have returned.

[Abiky]

There is a huge privacy gap in the crypto world that has been created with the seizure or closure of popular Bitcoin mixers and some No KYC p2p exchanges, as I pointed out earlier on. Most of the users are going to move to privacy leaning coins like Monero. Monero being the oldest and biggest will get a lion share of the users.

Someone said that even if Monero reached $1… Hold up, Like, how is it even going to reach $1? This is no TerraLuna or FTX token 

It could easily go down to $1, if mainstream adoption continues to decline. The removal of XMR trading pairs on centralized exchanges will give less exposure to the cryptocurrency. Only those who know about DEXs and P2P trading platforms will be able to obtain access to Monero. The rest of the people will be unaware of XMR as it will be completely removed from the centralized market. And if governments make it "illegal", things will be even worse.

With most people claiming "they have nothing to hide", privacy coins will become a niche in crypto land. At least the core Monero Blockchain network won't be going anywhere soon. That's assuming it stays decentralized and censorship-resistant. It'll be a "dark future" for privacy and freedom, so don't expect things to get better soon.

[patrickus]

Not only it will survive but in 2030, it will be the first crypto to be used in the world. People will need Monero to struggle against totalitarism.

[NeuroticFish]

On Exch, for example, they had to set the fee to 20% to protect their XMR holdings. Still their fee for BTC -> XMR is higher (5%) than XMR -> BTC (0,5%) which indicates that the demand for Monero is solidly above the available supply.

This is very interesting and, shame on me, I didn't notice that.

The Binance delisting dump was thus probably simply a undervaluation, and it is now correcting to its "fair" value. The way the dump itself evolved can be easily explained: first, traders on Binance tend to be retailers and thus have weak hands, and they simply panicked and sold (also amid fears the XMR could be "banned" everywhere). Second, during some time XMR withdrawals were stopped on Binance and that had probably deepened the panic.

A recovery after a panic sell is quite usual. And while I understand that it took some time for the traders make sure the price will not go further down badly before they've started taking it seriously again,... it took quite a lot until this recovery has started. Almost 4 months!

So there are strong indicators that at the time where XMR traded around $110-130 there were some factors in play that did not really indicate a slowdown in real demand, so the price was distorted at that moment. If we look at the Monero transaction chart, for example, the numbers are quite stable. There were spam attacks in April/May which don't count of course, but after those wave it seems the number of transactions per day returned to a slightly higher level than before, and there are no significant changes between before/after the delisting. And there are decentralized market/exchange projects based on Monero which seem to have been making progress lately too, so the hope may have returned.

Nice analysis!

I'll also add that I had a quite nice surprise to see Monero being traded here and there - in more places than I've expected. And I'm not a trader, I've only noticed it (!!)
With KYK-less exchanges gaining "market share", this trend has a good chance to continue/grow.
At least there's still hope.

[d5000]

A recovery after a panic sell is quite usual. And while I understand that it took some time for the traders make sure the price will not go further down badly before they've started taking it seriously again,... it took quite a lot until this recovery has started. Almost 4 months!

There was an immediate recovery from even less than $110 to $120-130. But the reason why it took so long for a more substantial recovery has two reasons for me.

First, there were more bad news incoming in the months following, for example the delisting on Kraken in several European countries, and the current version of the AML directive 6 in the EU which can be interpreted in a way that from 2027 on Monero accounts can't be traded on European (centralized) exchanges (I interpret it a little bit different, but the "de facto ban" interpretation is a real possibility). For sure these news triggered dumps, but the strong demand prevented XMR to fall to new lower lows.

In addition, I believe that as Binance (the biggest crypto exchange) is not longer listing it, strong bullish movements are less likely. In the altcoin sector I'm quite sure that these "green candles" are often triggered by retail traders FOMO on some centralized exchange, and Binance is the most likely place where this occurs as most other exchanges follow it. In general that could mean that a more diversified exchange landscape without a clear "price leader" could lead to more price stability. In this situation, this didn't benefit Monero but held it back a bit.

XMR has fallen again a bit lower (under $160) today, but that's not Monero's fault but was triggered by the weak Bitcoin price evolution.

[Abiky]

There was an immediate recovery from even less than $110 to $120-130. But the reason why it took so long for a more substantial recovery has two reasons for me.

First, there were more bad news incoming in the months following, for example the delisting on Kraken in several European countries, and the current version of the AML directive 6 in the EU which can be interpreted in a way that from 2027 on Monero accounts can't be traded on European (centralized) exchanges (I interpret it a little bit different, but the "de facto ban" interpretation is a real possibility). For sure these news triggered dumps, but the strong demand prevented XMR to fall to new lower lows.

In addition, I believe that as Binance (the biggest crypto exchange) is not longer listing it, strong bullish movements are less likely. In the altcoin sector I'm quite sure that these "green candles" are often triggered by retail traders FOMO on some centralized exchange, and Binance is the most likely place where this occurs as most other exchanges follow it. In general that could mean that a more diversified exchange landscape without a clear "price leader" could lead to more price stability. In this situation, this didn't benefit Monero but held it back a bit.

XMR has fallen again a bit lower (under $160) today, but that's not Monero's fault but was triggered by the weak Bitcoin price evolution.

If demand stays strong, we should have nothing to worry about. Monero might become stable enough (as in market price) to be used as a currency for day-to-day payments. Hopefully, prolonged bear markets won't affect XMR's value over time. With how things are going for Monero, I think it will turn into a better Bitcoin alternative. More decentralized, and private.

Who needs CEXs, the government, and "Wall Street"? Satoshi always wanted Bitcoin to be free from middlemen. It's likely Monero will fulfill Satoshi's original vision by being a truly-decentralized and censorship-resistant cryptocurrency. As long as it stays that way, no one will be able to stop it.

[d5000]

Reviving this thread because Monero did it again: it largely escaped the big crypto dip. In the last month it only lost 7%, and in the particularly bearish last 7 days less than 9%. Trading currently at 145-150, with daily highs and lows between about $138 (in the moment of maximum panic today morning) and $155.

I believe this happens because Monero is now partly disconnected from the big CEX markets. Most heavy speculation probably takes place on Binance. I don't know where the big drops originated but for sure Binance holders were among those most prone to panicking. And being less exposed to these folks can be an advantage

[BitMaxz]

Reviving this thread because Monero did it again: it largely escaped the big crypto dip. In the last month it only lost 7%, and in the particularly bearish last 7 days less than 9%. Trading currently at 145-150, with daily highs and lows between about $138 (in the moment of maximum panic today morning) and $155.

I believe this happens because Monero is now partly disconnected from the big CEX markets. Most heavy speculation probably takes place on Binance. I don't know where the big drops originated but for sure Binance holders were among those most prone to panicking. And being less exposed to these folks can be an advantage

Only 4 exchanges that I see have heavy traders Bybit, bitget, Binance, and OKX where Monero is delisted.

It's not worth holding for long term Monero might totally be removed from currently available exchanges once other exchanges are chased by authorities. I guess Monero will just die like other privacy coins like Grin and Beam coin both of these coins are dying. So it's too risky to hold these coins unless you want to exchange them immediately for other assets while other exchanges still accept them.

[SatoPrincess]

I thought the demand for Monero would be so high because of its privacy features. But it seems people do not care much about privacy like we thought. It is mistletoe about profits when it comes to buying crypto, the use-cases come after. Monero being a privacy coin is one huge advantage it has over Bitcoin which is pseudonymous. The attack on mixers, Monero and other privacy coins by the government should be enough reason to buy some but it is actually doing the opposite and more people are getting scared of buying Monero. I believe in the long term Monero will get the recognition it deserves.

[Abiky]

I thought the demand for Monero would be so high because of its privacy features. But it seems people do not care much about privacy like we thought. It is mistletoe about profits when it comes to buying crypto, the use-cases come after. Monero being a privacy coin is one huge advantage it has over Bitcoin which is pseudonymous. The attack on mixers, Monero and other privacy coins by the government should be enough reason to buy some but it is actually doing the opposite and more people are getting scared of buying Monero. I believe in the long term Monero will get the recognition it deserves.

Not because people don't care about their privacy (although the majority claim they have nothing to hide), but because they're afraid of the government. Most people believe getting caught using privacy coins will result in fines or jail time. Even in countries where privacy coins aren't "illegal" (like the US), you could easily raise suspicion if you're caught using them. It's why Monero has been under the radar of mainstream investors after all these years. It will remain "hidden in the shadows", while the rest (like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana) continue to rise all the way to glory.

I'm fine with Monero just the way it is, as long as governments keep their hands off it. Ensuring the network remains decentralized and censorship-resistant is our best bet to help protect our right to privacy. Who knows if XMR lasts for generations?

[d5000]

It's not worth holding for long term Monero might totally be removed from currently available exchanges once other exchanges are chased by authorities.

The Monero community is preventing this by creating an infrastructure independent from the big exchanges, with specialized exchanges operating in friendly jurisdictions, and P2P exchanges/markets.

And my expectation is exactly the contrary than yours: The price increase from Binance's delisting on is showing that Monero is worthy as an investment. The recovery versus Bitcoin and other altcoins is gradual but quite steady -- a slight return to lower XMR/BTC levels (but never reaching the lows just after the Binance delisting) in July was recently countered by new XMR/BTC highs in the 0.0028 region during yesterday's dip. 0.003 looks very likely soon, and 0.004, where Monero already traded often before Binance's delisting, is also within reach in a couple of months. If people were only using Monero to increase privacy on BTC and other coins, then this move wouldn't be explainable.

In reality Monero is showing the world how Bitcoin for example could continue to exist if the governments were employing increasingly unfriendly regulations.

Monero should be added to the UN Intangible Heritage. Alongside BTC of course

[SatoPrincess]

I thought the demand for Monero would be so high because of its privacy features. But it seems people do not care much about privacy like we thought. It is mistletoe about profits when it comes to buying crypto, the use-cases come after. Monero being a privacy coin is one huge advantage it has over Bitcoin which is pseudonymous. The attack on mixers, Monero and other privacy coins by the government should be enough reason to buy some but it is actually doing the opposite and more people are getting scared of buying Monero. I believe in the long term Monero will get the recognition it deserves.

Not because people don't care about their privacy (although the majority claim they have nothing to hide), but because they're afraid of the government. Most people believe getting caught using privacy coins will result in fines or jail time. Even in countries where privacy coins aren't "illegal" (like the US), you could easily raise suspicion if you're caught using them. It's why Monero has been under the radar of mainstream investors after all these years. It will remain "hidden in the shadows", while the rest (like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana) continue to rise all the way to glory.

I'm fine with Monero just the way it is, as long as governments keep their hands off it. Ensuring the network remains decentralized and censorship-resistant is our best bet to help protect our right to privacy. Who knows if XMR lasts for generations?

It’s not just with privacy coins. I have heard this I have nothing to hide so why use them mindset when it comes to the discussion of using mixers. The government has been very successful in shutting down mixers, I believe the more pressure they clamp down on mixers, people will get more scared of using mixers so they do not end up being under the watchlist of the government. I think it is the same challenge that privacy coins are faced with in the crypto industry.

[DeathAngel]

I love Monero, it does everything you need in a privacy coin. It’s bulletproof as a privacy method of payment but we have a big problem with regulation, authorities & governments hate it & are desperate to destroy it. It can survive but I don’t think it will dramatically rise in price due to it being delisted & forced into the darkness. It still does what it is required to do but I don’t see mainstream adoption as a possibility.

[betswift]

I love Monero, it does everything you need in a privacy coin. It’s bulletproof as a privacy method of payment but we have a big problem with regulation, authorities & governments hate it & are desperate to destroy it. It can survive but I don’t think it will dramatically rise in price due to it being delisted & forced into the darkness. It still does what it is required to do but I don’t see mainstream adoption as a possibility.

It's a shame, really. Didn't hear about the project but from what I've read big hands don't like being challenged in the aspects that matter to them (what a surprise). We shall see if it will be put out of this darkness and into the light, or it will stay there never being able to shine.

[Plaguedeath]

It's a matter of time Monero will be delisted from all centralized exchanges and SEC will declare Monero as an illegal coin which will pressure to other countries except China, Russia, North Korea etc.

Monero can still being used and it will not die, but the price and usage will be low.

Do most people care with their privacy and decentralization? nope, if they care they will buy Bitcoin from no KYC P2P or DEX, same applies to Monero.

[Qiubell5]

I love Monero, it does everything you need in a privacy coin. It’s bulletproof as a privacy method of payment but we have a big problem with regulation, authorities & governments hate it & are desperate to destroy it. It can survive but I don’t think it will dramatically rise in price due to it being delisted & forced into the darkness. It still does what it is required to do but I don’t see mainstream adoption as a possibility.

like the needs that must be met so you get the desired benefits of the similar network security properties, and no control of user information, but keep in mind the government does not understand all that they prohibit it, but I think with the most common cryptocurrency seen in transactions, but the development community gives a different picture of this privacy coin, on the other hand treating it well which helps trade, the need for sufficient consideration by providing a number of services to the coin community.

[Lanatsa]

It's a matter of time Monero will be delisted from all centralized exchanges and SEC will declare Monero as an illegal coin which will pressure to other countries except China, Russia, North Korea etc.

Monero can still being used and it will not die, but the price and usage will be low.

Do most people care with their privacy and decentralization? nope, if they care they will buy Bitcoin from no KYC P2P or DEX, same applies to Monero.

Really that hard to make up some conclusions that Monero would die on which i do even have the feeling that this coin would really be that surpassing Bitcoin to be used on dark/deepweb considering about true anonymity which is really that unlike if we do speak about Bitcoin which is pseudonymous as we do all know. Well, this is only my own personal views and opinions on which its really that hard to make up conclusion basing up on whats happening now or speaking about being getting delisted on many exchangers but as long there would be those people whom really that still holding this coin then it wont die no matter what.
They can delist all they want but we do know that we do have those decentralized platforms on which we could really be able to trade or buy those coins.

Its really that not shocking nor really that something new that they would really be that doing their very best on getting rid into something which cant be controlled completely. Yes, it was first mainly focused on Bitcoin but they've seen that this is something that they could able to at least be able to hold on at least but not totally on which it would really be not that possible or cant be just that possible
when dealing up with Monero. This is why government would really be that targeting out those platforms which do allows Monero.

[NotATether]

Reviving this thread because Monero did it again: it largely escaped the big crypto dip. In the last month it only lost 7%, and in the particularly bearish last 7 days less than 9%. Trading currently at 145-150, with daily highs and lows between about $138 (in the moment of maximum panic today morning) and $155.

I believe this happens because Monero is now partly disconnected from the big CEX markets. Most heavy speculation probably takes place on Binance. I don't know where the big drops originated but for sure Binance holders were among those most prone to panicking. And being less exposed to these folks can be an advantage

Monero is necessary for privacy, so nobody should be cheering for it to go down.

I for one, take back everything bad I've said about it.