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Author Topic: Sentiment incredibly bearish  (Read 1914 times)
inca
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March 30, 2014, 12:42:14 PM
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So having a look through the fora here and on reddit it seems the bears and trolls are out in force uncontested. Sentiment is overwhelmingly negative. Apparently bitcoin is crashing, it has no value and could go to zero! Matthecat and igorr told us so!

Perhaps it could. But sellers who purely bought to trade or profit will soon be exhausted and the price will inevitably bottom.

The shorter time frame charts look ugly Smiley. But pulling out to the 3 day as we see a healthy pullback after an ATH with a potential triple bottom around the 400 area. This represents a good buying area and anything below this is an absurdly good entry for new market participants.

We all know that bitcoin is a nascent currency but as infrastructure continues to grow and user adoption rises those predicting sustained prices below 100 dollars make me chuckle.

The problem with timing a bottom, is that like a top, they seldom become obvious until the future is known. For every seller there is a buyer. The prospect of buying bitcoins in the 3xx and 4xx range two months ago would have people salivating on here. Instead the doomers are screaming sell sell sell and buyers are timid. For every weak hand who sells out now (probably at a loss), there is a more experienced player stepping over the blood in the streets and buying in silently. This is classic markets in action, whales buying low from the sheep selling low Wink

Think critically and without emotion and decide whether the rather shrill calls that bitcoin is dead (again) represent a selling or buying opportunity.

Happy hunting!



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March 30, 2014, 12:44:43 PM
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We've never been here before.  igorr and matthecat are right.  This is the end...cuz we've never been here before.
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March 30, 2014, 12:47:41 PM
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Some foolish bagholders still denying, bitcoin is draining and will be stablizing at 150$ soon
inca
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March 30, 2014, 12:50:18 PM
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We've never been here before.  igorr and matthecat are right.  This is the end...cuz we've never been here before.

Is that confirmed? Smiley
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March 30, 2014, 12:50:37 PM
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We've been ahead of the multiyear log trend since the last leg up, this period is just taking us back to where we "should" be. All this gloom seems quite bullish to me =D

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March 30, 2014, 12:55:24 PM
 #6

I'm not a bag holder. I have someone that does that for me now.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
T.Stuart
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March 30, 2014, 12:57:20 PM
 #7

As long as we stay above 262 right?

 Smiley

I reckon we'll stop at 362, which will happen sometime this week!


                                   
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March 30, 2014, 01:07:49 PM
 #8

I'm not a bag holder. I have someone that does that for me now.

 Cheesy
MatTheCat
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March 30, 2014, 01:30:25 PM
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I reckon we'll stop at 362, which will happen sometime this week!



I don't. I think we will visit the $200 range for sure, although perhaps not before another counter-trend rally or two. Having said that, I never expected Bitcoin to nose dive as quickly as it has done.....perhaps I believed all the Bitcoin Nutters when they insisted that China was already priced in and was bracing myself for a slow grinding long winded bear market.

Things are looking really bad at the moment. Just broken through that $466 high volume low, on next to bugger all volume! Will be interesting to see if $400 can hold if/when a proper level of selling pressure kicks in.

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zhangweiwu
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March 30, 2014, 01:34:52 PM
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Think critically and without emotion and decide whether the rather shrill calls that bitcoin is dead (again) represent a selling or buying opportunity.


I speculate the following: when BTC dip, if LTC price drops against BTC price on Chinese exchanges, Chinese are being bearish. Otherwise the USD world is.

That's because LTC endorsement is phenomenal in China, and LTC investors are more risk-seeking and twitchy (over-react to both bearish and bullish trend). If this is correct, in the 3-days down-ward move, the last Friday's downward pressure is from China (LTC/BTC dipped to 0.265), and this weekends' pressure is from USD world (LTC/BTC remain on 0.0278).

The chance of PBOC (central bank of China) closing exchanges' bank account, is built into the price at 530$. Lower dip is due to Chinese scared the world. (Of course there will be another crash when PBOC actually does it.) Should I laugh seeing panic sellers as stupid as our homebrew (China) version?

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
inca
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March 30, 2014, 02:15:28 PM
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I reckon we'll stop at 362, which will happen sometime this week!



I don't. I think we will visit the $200 range for sure, although perhaps not before another counter-trend rally or two. Having said that, I never expected Bitcoin to nose dive as quickly as it has done.....perhaps I believed all the Bitcoin Nutters when they insisted that China was already priced in and was bracing myself for a slow grinding long winded bear market.

Things are looking really bad at the moment. Just broken through that $466 high volume low, on next to bugger all volume! Will be interesting to see if $400 can hold if/when a proper level of selling pressure kicks in.

Leaving aside your usual emotive book talking, why are you sure the price will drop to 2xx range?

Ultimately it is not in major market participants interest to let it drop that low for a sustained period of time. Who wants to own a larger percentage of something and kill it in the process?
MatTheCat
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March 30, 2014, 02:47:17 PM
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Leaving aside your usual emotive book talking, why are you sure the price will drop to 2xx range?

Ultimately it is not in major market participants interest to let it drop that low for a sustained period of time. Who wants to own a larger percentage of something and kill it in the process?

Have you noticed the way that the lows are being continually pushed down on very little volume?

Think back to early March when the $400 low hit. Think of all the back slapping and euphoria, that the bottom was in and 10K Bitcoins were just around the corner, only for one month later to be back below where most 'bottom fishers' would have gotten in on the MtGox crash, with Bitcoin looking weak as ever. This is a real kicking. Bitcoin is getting badly hurt and the punishment has barely begun. Thus, if +/- $20 around $400 doesn't hold as a bottom, then $200 range is next logical conclusion with $266 (April 2013) being the last significant pivotal price. Look along the Bitcoin chart and see how Bitcoin never fails to play around these pivotal price points. When one fails, or is taken out, then it is on to the next.

I expect a rally at around $400, but I expect it to peter out very quickly as sentiment is just too bearish and so many speculators who thought they were getting a cracking deal are either underwater by now or have just had all the joy sucked out them.

So, leaving aside your usual emotive book talking, why are you sure that sentiment is strong enough for $400 to prove itself the ultimate bottom? (even though that is only $50 away and we are hardly in the midst of a bout of panic selling right here).

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BitCoinsLOL
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March 30, 2014, 03:20:26 PM
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We've never been here before.  igorr and matthecat are right.  This is the end...cuz we've never been here before.

Is that confirmed? Smiley

  • Confirmed!  Grin

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March 30, 2014, 04:36:41 PM
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It is confapped and fapfirmed.
Tzupy
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March 30, 2014, 04:54:23 PM
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'Sentiment incredibly bearish'? Come on... Sentiment is bearish, and this is normal in a bear market.
It's more bearish than I previously thought, so it seems that this bear market is going to resemble more 2011 than 2013.
But my EW count says that the market is still far from the very bottom. If 400$ will break during the next days and
there will be a rebound from that local bottom, only after that will the 'incredibly bearish' sentiment kick in.
Quoting from Wikipedia: Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
inca
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March 30, 2014, 04:55:52 PM
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Leaving aside your usual emotive book talking, why are you sure the price will drop to 2xx range?

Ultimately it is not in major market participants interest to let it drop that low for a sustained period of time. Who wants to own a larger percentage of something and kill it in the process?

Have you noticed the way that the lows are being continually pushed down on very little volume?

Think back to early March when the $400 low hit. Think of all the back slapping and euphoria, that the bottom was in and 10K Bitcoins were just around the corner, only for one month later to be back below where most 'bottom fishers' would have gotten in on the MtGox crash, with Bitcoin looking weak as ever. This is a real kicking. Bitcoin is getting badly hurt and the punishment has barely begun. Thus, if +/- $20 around $400 doesn't hold as a bottom, then $200 range is next logical conclusion with $266 (April 2013) being the last significant pivotal price. Look along the Bitcoin chart and see how Bitcoin never fails to play around these pivotal price points. When one fails, or is taken out, then it is on to the next.

I expect a rally at around $400, but I expect it to peter out very quickly as sentiment is just too bearish and so many speculators who thought they were getting a cracking deal are either underwater by now or have just had all the joy sucked out them.

So, leaving aside your usual emotive book talking, why are you sure that sentiment is strong enough for $400 to prove itself the ultimate bottom? (even though that is only $50 away and we are hardly in the midst of a bout of panic selling right here).

I am not sure about the price, you are Smiley.

Your arguments are based on technical analysis, fine. If we breach support therefore we drop much lower. Maybe. You are right a beautiful high volume reversal would be most welcome, but I am a buyer here. I will continue to buy in enlarging tranches the lower we go.

As I said before this is a punt for me which could easily return several hundred % over a couple of years. It forms a small part of my portfolio, but owning high double digits today stings Wink
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March 30, 2014, 04:58:46 PM
 #17

'Sentiment incredibly bearish'? Come on... Sentiment is bearish, and this is normal in a bear market.
It's more bearish than I previously thought, so it seems that this bear market is going to resemble more 2011 than 2013.
But my EW count says that the market is still far from the very bottom. If 400$ will break during the next days and
there will be a rebound from that local bottom, only after that will the 'incredibly bearish' sentiment kick in.
Quoting from Wikipedia: Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched.

I agree with this. The error the OP is making is that he's using sentiment in a quantitative manner. However, the market is a fractal. To end a bear market, we need to see sentiment comensurately negative relative to the optimism seen near the highs. If you recall how insane this bubble/mania got, then you'll realize it's going to take one hell of a rout to properly retrace
inca
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March 30, 2014, 05:33:55 PM
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'Sentiment incredibly bearish'? Come on... Sentiment is bearish, and this is normal in a bear market.
It's more bearish than I previously thought, so it seems that this bear market is going to resemble more 2011 than 2013.
But my EW count says that the market is still far from the very bottom. If 400$ will break during the next days and
there will be a rebound from that local bottom, only after that will the 'incredibly bearish' sentiment kick in.
Quoting from Wikipedia: Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched.

I agree with this. The error the OP is making is that he's using sentiment in a quantitative manner. However, the market is a fractal. To end a bear market, we need to see sentiment comensurately negative relative to the optimism seen near the highs. If you recall how insane this bubble/mania got, then you'll realize it's going to take one hell of a rout to properly retrace

Sentiment can be scraped from public sites and fashioned into an index which provides useful predictive information. Though in this case I haven't.

Fractals, elliot wave theory, mmm,  you both drive a ferrari I suppose Smiley
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March 30, 2014, 06:19:27 PM
 #19

Some foolish bagholders still denying, bitcoin is draining and will be stablizing at 150$ soon

probably $80 or less is what KNC will keep selling it down past

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