When you are confident with your picks, do you win most of the time?

[freedomgo]

I would like to ask everyone here who is into sports betting for some advice. I've come to realize that maybe I should start fading myself. I've noticed that my recent gambling journey hasn't been profitable, so I'm thinking maybe I'm missing something. I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

[Odusko]

I would like to ask everyone here who is into sports betting for some advice. I've come to realize that maybe I should start fading myself. I've noticed that my recent gambling journey hasn't been profitable, so I'm thinking maybe I'm missing something. I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

Your lucky day I think, because no one can give an accurate predictions, as far as sports bets is concerned, more also while you should consider betting outside the thought of making a profits may be that is the reason you are not finding satisfaction in you current betting format, what I will advise you is that, you should bet based on the confidence that you have made the analysis based on your own understanding and also having it at the back of your mind that gambling is based on luck and not skills.

[Yogee]

I feel more comfortable losing by following my analysis than by going against it but I still do that sometimes to break the pattern or the losing streak. The problem is I didn't keep a record so I cannot really compare. If going by memory alone then I guess it's 1 or 2 out of 3 and then I go back to my usual style.

[Agbamoni]

No, confidence does not bring winning in gambling. It only brings about hope that we would win in a particular bet. Infact most of the times i was confidence with the game i had selected i mostly don't win because i choose the games out of passion and not based on the quality and performances of the team which i mostly experience in sports gambling.

Gambling is luck, which means once luck is on your side you will win. If your bets were analyzed well then there are also chances of you wining as well. Sometimes i just take a few games like two or three then i use a big amount to stake it, it mostly come out well anytime i do this.

[Odohu]

When I'm confident in my picks, I end up losing more and I don't know why that happens. I did a kind of experiment few weeks ago in which I compared the profitability of playing heavy bets of supposed sure small odds with that of playing lower amount in big odds that have high risks.  While I had higher win rate with the small odds, there was lower win rate with the bigger odds. Consequently, I realise that I was better of with the bigger odds in terms of peace of mind and even profit margin. This may sound funny but the reason is that with small odd and heavy stake, a single loss will destroy several wins... I couldn't just shoulder the losses and pretend that nothing happened
Unlike the bigger odds which I can afford to lose several bets and have a single win clear them and still put me in profit. So I realised that the more confident I become, the less profitable it gets for me.

[uneng]

Confidence doesn't mean a positive record of outcomes on long run. Sometimes I'm pretty sure about a match's result, but in the end the result is completely the opposite from what I firstly expected. There isn't a general rule or recipe on what you should do to improve your performance in sports betting. Even in this niche of gambling industry outcomes are too random to be predicted with some accuracy on long term. You still has to rely on luck, anyway. That is sad, but it's true.

Sometimes games' results are so unbelievable that we start thinking they must have been fixed, as the only possible explanation for what is in front of our eyes, going completely against our expectations, as if we didn't have any notion of reality to predict the result so wrongly. However, at same time we can't prove anything, so all we can do is to accept the loss and move ahead.

[mirakal]

No, confidence does not bring winning in gambling. It only brings about hope that we would win in a particular bet. Infact most of the times i was confidence with the game i had selected i mostly don't win because i choose the games out of passion and not based on the quality and performances of the team which i mostly experience in sports gambling.

Gambling is luck, which means once luck is on your side you will win. If your bets were analyzed well then there are also chances of you wining as well. Sometimes i just take a few games like two or three then i use a big amount to stake it, it mostly come out well anytime i do this.

Gambling is purely a game of luck. If you’re out of luck, you will never experience winning your bets. Even if your confidence to bet is high, that won’t still guarantee winning. But if luck is on your side, no matter how unpredictable the outcome of the game, you will still end up in profits even if you aren’t sure of your bets.

However, when it comes to sportsbetting, if you’re quite good in your game analysis because you know how the game is played, sometimes the outcome turn into skill based. But most of the time, regardless what type of game as long as it’s gambling, it’s always luck based.

[Yatsan]

Nope, unfortunately. The ones which often turns into winning bets, personally, are those which I weren't that much confident of. Well to some it would be frustrating but I just accepted how gambling works. However, it just feels good whenever outcome meets my expectation in particular with the teams I assumed to win. It quite gives me the feeling that I am not only guessing but more of analyzing the game and that's more fulfilling for me. But again, we just don't have control of gambling outcomes. There are times you don't really feel the confidence but you end up winning and this is not fulfilling on my end however, I still continue doing some random bets for the sake of calibrating my luck with the games I invested time analyzing. Well, what matters is that I enjoy watching games in sportsbetting.

But I do see this often with card game players especially those who knows how to bluff and card count wherein they seem to be doing what they planned.

[topbitcoin]

Sometimes, when the results of your analysis do not align with your expectations, it might be a smart move to change your perspective by fading yourself. We often find that trusting our intuition in betting can lead us astray, particularly if we are not being objective in our assessments.

I find your trial of jotting down your picks and afterward betting against them rather intriguing, and it appears to have worked out well for you. It serves as an indication that at times, looking at things from a different angle can help break free from habits or distorted perceptions.

I haven't personally tried this approach, but your recount piques my interest in its utility for breaking free from a losing streak's grip. The concept underscores the significance of adaptability and willingness to experiment with new tactics in the realm of betting. However, betting against our own selections can pose a mental challenge, and it might feel discordant to ever move away from our intuitive leanings. Unsettling as those sensations may be, if this alternative route leads to greater benefits, perhaps it warrants deliberation.

[ralle14]

I've done that a few times because i'd sometimes have a terrible record in certain sports, and during those times it only made me lose more bets. I'd rather endure these losses than fade my bets again as I could miss the timing for my luck to turn the other way around.

However, I do use that strategy against the bettors that I follow and are consistent at choosing the losing teams based on their profit or record.

[stadus]

There's no problem with that strategy if you don't invest emotion in gambling. But the thing is, we gamble in the first place because we are having fun, and profit is just secondary. You know, there's no challenge in gambling if we are not having fun, so the best fulfillment as a gambler is when you are having fun and being profitable at the same time.

You can bet against yourself but learn to enjoy it in the long run, because if not, you are just gambling with no sense, it's just all about the greed of money, just like working in a company, you make money but you don't love your job, how would you feel?

[Oshosondy]

I will say yes but people will have different experiences about this. I prefer to bet with high amount of money before and I did lost almost all the time and my losses were far more than my profits. But I later prefer to bet with small amount of money and the confidence increased because if I lose, it is just small amount of money. But I noticed that my strategy changed and I win than lose. But I do not care if I lose than win because gambling is not a way I am looking for money anymore.

[retreat]

If your analysis always ends in losses and when you bet against your own analysis and actually win, then that means there is something wrong with your analysis and you should try to find out why that happened. Because when you keep trying to bet against your own analysis, that means you are constantly trying to fight your own beliefs. Over time it will lead to your lack of confidence in betting and that will cause other problems. So personally, I would rather bet according to what I believe, that even if I lose, at least I lose by believing in myself.

[Bitinity]

Confident will not affect your luck, but since it is related to sports, it depends on where your confidence come from. Is the confidence come because you have good analysis/researches or is the confidence come from your own feeling only? Other thing is back to luck because sometime luck also take a big part in sports betting. There can be something really unexpected happens many times in sports, even we can lose some bets with so low odds.

[Gozie51]

I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

It happens sometimes that you get tired of losing and frustrated that you try out many options and this seem like one but it is not profitable all the time. If you get a right prediction and bet on it, it will fail.

But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

Some gamblers also lost hope in their analysis and started betting against it and after winning few times, they started getting their analysis right and when they bet against it they started losing. You understand what that means?


It means you have not been getting your analysis right which is why you bet against it and get it correct. Check this then, what will make you bet wrongly and win? You can only bet rightly for you to win.

[Assface16678]

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

The thing about betting, especially sports betting, is that I bet on what matches I will bet on. Before I bet, I make sure that I will review who's team or players will be playing, and next I will do analysis, looking at the stats of each team or player. So, for example, look at the stats of each team or player. So, for example, in an NBA match, will I really like to bet? Before I decide which team I will bet on, I will view the standings of the team and their conditions. In short, I will do my own analysis first. I'm not a bettor who will bet just because I feel like betting on this team. No, I want to become rational and do my primary analysis so that I will have a better chance of winning the bet. So for those who like to bet, be rational and think before you bet on a team or player.

[Crypt0Gore]

Confidence and luck are not the same, many confidence on a game or sure bets still leads to losses, I don't want to choose a side, I would rather gamble with what I can afford to lose and enjoy the game instead, confidence in gambling is like you saying that you can see the air.

I know a brother who is into sports betting, he kept losing for a long period of time and is life changed after he choose basketball and abandoned football bets, I don't know how he pulled this off but man, this basketball games is very good to him, as if this was where he was supposed to be right from the beginning.

It is not a must to keep putting your head into football, you can try other sports just to see what happen, in your own case you want to win but in my own case I won't mind losing $5 on a game every week, like I make over 100s over dollars per week anyway, when the time is right luck will come looking for me.

[lovesmayfamilis]

Absolutely right. Nothing is permanent. If you manage to do the same thing several times, one day it will fail. Going ahead without making any decisions to change is tantamount to making the same mistake over and over again. Gambling cannot be patterned. Here, you need to take risks and make decisions that, from the outside, seem rash, but that’s what games are for to catch your luck and take risks every time.

[junder]

Gambling is purely a game of luck. If you’re out of luck, you will never experience winning your bets. Even if your confidence to bet is high, that won’t still guarantee winning. But if luck is on your side, no matter how unpredictable the outcome of the game, you will still end up in profits even if you aren’t sure of your bets.

However, when it comes to sportsbetting, if you’re quite good in your game analysis because you know how the game is played, sometimes the outcome turn into skill based. But most of the time, regardless what type of game as long as it’s gambling, it’s always luck based.

That's right, gambling is a game of chance, even though we are confident in our choices, whether it's a high betting amount or something else, that doesn't change the portion of our own luck. I once felt that I was sure that I could win and indeed the result was that I could win, but of course it wasn't because of anything, but because luck was on our side. What you say is true, even though we are doubtful or unsure, if luck is on our side then victory can happen, and after that control in the future is ours alone.

Remembering that sports betting can sometimes lead to skill, but I think luck still plays a role, but maybe not as much as other gambling games which only depend on luck. because indeed all games that are said to be gambling are closely related to luck. What we have to pay attention to is that we don't force ourselves by continuing to play to chase luck because that is not the right action. luck will come by itself.

[Obim34]

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

From what you said, I think there is a bit of emotions attached to your selections, it might be fan factor or rival factor which reduces your possibility of winning most of your bet. Confident betting should be based on team's current performance, comparing their stats in the season against their opponent but yet doesn't still assure us of winning the bet. Betting against our own picks might be an awful way to make selections, just imagine giving one of the relegated premier league club a straight win against Manchester city, it is more likely to favor City than any of them despite their is a bit possibility of City losing to any of them. We bet on the ones with the highest percentage of winning other than against it.