When you are confident with your picks, do you win most of the time?

[Zoomic]

I would like to ask everyone here who is into sports betting for some advice. I've come to realize that maybe I should start fading myself. I've noticed that my recent gambling journey hasn't been profitable, so I'm thinking maybe I'm missing something. I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

The concepts of this thread is very hilarious, personally I have only thought about this I haven't practiced it, is quite funny and it will take extral mind for any one play against his picks, I know it is a reality in the game of sports betting where at most times the unfortunate opposite will be become the surprising outcome how funny could that be. But however, it is a fact that every gambler has to accept, no certainty or guarantee towards whatever that might be your favorite picks , betting is a game of try your luck and shouldn't be completely rely on, the reason why it is always advisable not to gamble with more than what you can afford to lose, know your limit and stand by it.

I do not find it hilarious, rather it should be able to make OP think outside the box when next he places a bet. I think OP just experimented it by playing against his picks since his picks are usually not in his favour. Fortunately for him, his new decision paid off. This brings me to these conclusions, probably OP always places bets base on how he feels about the teams involved. His emotions plays the most role in the choices he makes. Now he understands where he got it wrong all along, he can take better approaches while placing bets next time. This is gambling and ofcourse there is no 100% guarantee that any strategy is the best, but the most important thing to note is that you are not the one aiding your losses with your wrong decisions all the time.

[coolcoinz]

Unfortunately no. I had a lot of picks in my life where I was pretty confident and they turned out to be disappointing.

A great example was world cup 2018 where everybody was betting for the Germans (former champions) to get at the very least to semifinals and they ended on 20th something place. I had so many bets where I felt strong over the years. Especially in UFC you can never be sure, like in that last fight where Gaethje was knocked out in the last minute of the last round.

[Wapfika]

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

I’m a seasonal sports bettor because I only place bet in sports that I watch closely to make my bets more accurate.

I have a higher winning rate on sports betting because I usually focus on quality of my bets rather than quantity so I only bets on matches that I have high confidence to win regardless of how low the odds is.

Some people aim for higher odds that’s why they keep chasing complicated matches that makes them lose frequently no matter how confident they are with their bets since they are forcing picks limited to high odds that makes it naturally complicated to win.

[nara1892]

I can't be sure if my choices make me more happy and joyful or make me disappointed, I can't be sure enough to know if my choices are always right or miss when gambling, but it is a fact that maybe other people also experience the same thing where when I am confident in my predictions but in the end the results at the end of the session are disappointing, or vice versa when I really gamble desperately and don't really care about the results and I actually win.

It's quite confusing but this is gambling and I think it's normal for this to happen because I understand that in gambling no matter how confident you are with the predictions you think are right, there is no denying that in the end there is always the possibility for you to experience disappointment. And this is why lately I prefer to be neutral about the gambling activities that I do, or that means I don't put too much hope in winning and also I don't put too much confidence in the predictions I choose, simply put I will assume that if I win then it means I'm lucky, and nothing more than that.

[Quidat]

Unfortunately no. I had a lot of picks in my life where I was pretty confident and they turned out to be disappointing.

A great example was world cup 2018 where everybody was betting for the Germans (former champions) to get at the very least to semifinals and they ended on 20th something place. I had so many bets where I felt strong over the years. Especially in UFC you can never be sure, like in that last fight where Gaethje was knocked out in the last minute of the last round.

Yes, all of us would really be having that same experience when it comes to this manner on which we would really be having those kind of thoughts and assumptions that we are really that on the winning side since you are really that confident with your choice or bet with having those good analysis and prediction basing up on what you do know and from your experience until the moment you have seen that different outcome then it would really be bringing out that kind of disappointment but well if you are someone who do make bets just for the sake of fun and not minding much about making money then you wont really be that much stressful in compared into those people who do target out on making money with gambling or sports betting or whatsover that they are dealing with.

[decodx]

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

I’m a seasonal sports bettor because I only place bet in sports that I watch closely to make my bets more accurate.

I have a higher winning rate on sports betting because I usually focus on quality of my bets rather than quantity so I only bets on matches that I have high confidence to win regardless of how low the odds is.

Some people aim for higher odds that’s why they keep chasing complicated matches that makes them lose frequently no matter how confident they are with their bets since they are forcing picks limited to high odds that makes it naturally complicated to win.

You make a fair point on valuing quality over quantity with sports bets.  Just trying to chase the best odds can get you into trouble by taking on too much risk and  i'd say it's smarter to zero in on wagers with strong value, even if the odds are just decent and not through the roof.

That said, if your picks keep missing the mark, it makes sense to reevaluate your approach.  But there's a difference between overthinking past choices versus taking in new info.  Maybe a key guy just got hurt or there was a last-second change to the roster that shakes up your original analysis.  In those cases changing up your selection could be the right call.

[Lida93]

Talking about confidence, I’m always confident about my bet but confidence will never get me my right choice so I’m used to viewing the end result win or lose.

I have seen so many gamblers who were confident of their game but at the end of it the game ended in loses. So despite how confident we believe that our bet will win, we still have to play cool about our bet until it finally end in FT. In fact some gamblers are very confident sometimes that they still go ahead to rebet outside the original bet that there game must win.

Being confident of your bet doesn't make it play as predicted. I get to keep my confidence level in check going by the mistakes made by other gambler's who out of much confidence have lost a trembling amount of money. Confidence on their game playing probably due to the source of games makes them stake in high amount of cash that isn't what they can afford to lose. Nothing about gambling is sure so I wonder the too much confidence from people about their bet.

[Agbamoni]

Unfortunately no. I had a lot of picks in my life where I was pretty confident and they turned out to be disappointing.

A great example was world cup 2018 where everybody was betting for the Germans (former champions) to get at the very least to semifinals and they ended on 20th something place. I had so many bets where I felt strong over the years. Especially in UFC you can never be sure, like in that last fight where Gaethje was knocked out in the last minute of the last round.

Guess this things happen most in soccer betting. I have made a lot of bets which i knew was a.clear stand for me but unfortunately i lost. Football betting is unpredictable and i understand. There is no match that is 100% accurate and it one cannot be confident that the game will play. In most cases when we are confident is when we need the bet to win so badly funny enough when we dont need it so badly that is when we would win in the game.

[AliMan]

I would like to ask everyone here who is into sports betting for some advice. I've come to realize that maybe I should start fading myself. I've noticed that my recent gambling journey hasn't been profitable, so I'm thinking maybe I'm missing something. I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

I do feel comfortable when I saw my picks nearly hit the target, but it doesn't give me frustrations when failing if I just can afford what I'm going to lose in a certain bets. Honestly, learning to accept any negative consequences isn't easy to handle in times of struggles, what's important is you should keep the mindset of entertainment instead of being so serious with gambling. Self confidence unto something, will result in positive outcome no matter what happens.

[darkangel11]

I'm usually confident with my picks. If I'm not I prefer to wait and not bet any money, therefore I can't tell you how I'm doing betting money on picks I'm confident with vs the ones I'm not.
That said, I'm about 55% maybe 60% in profit. I often lose, but overall I win more than I lose. This can be seen as something good and bad at the same time, because as I said, I'm confident all the time, but almost half of these confident picks are lost. Tough life, I guess

[Rockstarguy]

No, confidence does not bring winning in gambling. It only brings about hope that we would win in a particular bet. Infact most of the times i was confidence with the game i had selected i mostly don't win because i choose the games out of passion and not based on the quality and performances of the team which i mostly experience in sports gambling.

Gambling is luck, which means once luck is on your side you will win. If your bets were analyzed well then there are also chances of you wining as well. Sometimes i just take a few games like two or three then i use a big amount to stake it, it mostly come out well anytime i do this.

Having too much confidence in gambling can even make you to lose the more, just be positive and also understand that gambling is unpredictable.  Play with amount you can afford to lose , when you are so confidence in gambling it can make you to take much risk which you can play with a reasonable amount of money or to play with money which you are not supposed in playing gambling.

  Winning gambling is not by having confidence but good understanding.  Understanding is everything in gambling,  with it you can be able to manage your lose. Having confidence on something that you can't predict to tell what will be the result of the game is not a good strategy in winning gambling. Playing with amount that you can afford to lose in gambling is even a big win than Playing with so much confidence that can lead one Playing with a big amount.

[Cryptoprincess101]

It depends on the type of bet you choose to play like if it involves accumulated matches or just a single match but most gamblers do complain that picking familiar options for a bet doesn't work most of the time like for instance predicting a team that is on winning streak to keep winning doesn't go as predicted because the day you will choose them to win with confidence that they have always been winning is the day they will either lose or draw but since gambling is more of luck it does not matter if you use familiar options for an event but if you are just lucky to pick correctly you can win.

[Juse14]

It depends on the type of bet you choose to play like if it involves accumulated matches or just a single match but most gamblers do complain that picking familiar options for a bet doesn't work most of the time like for instance predicting a team that is on winning streak to keep winning doesn't go as predicted because the day you will choose them to win with confidence that they have always been winning is the day they will either lose or draw but since gambling is more of luck it does not matter if you use familiar options for an event but if you are just lucky to pick correctly you can win.

I agree with what you said, that indeed confidence in choices when gambling and winning often does hinge on the nature of the bet. Whether it entails an aggregation of matches or a singular match, it truly varies. However, numerous gamblers voice discontent towards opting for familiar betting options not always panning out. Take for instance forecasting a triumphant team's continued success based on their winning streak: it often backfires. The day you place blind faith in their victory might turn out to be the day luck eludes them, ending their winning run with an unexpected draw or loss. The situation can sometimes be likened to walking on thin ice while confidently expecting solid ground beneath your feet.

Gambling is based on chance, so it makes no difference if you pick familiar options or not. If luck is on your side and you happen to choose right, you win. But always bear in mind: when it comes to gambling, there are no certainties; the result of an event often defies prognostication with any degree of assurance. Even though you may be sure about your decision and feel confident, remember that risk is always part of it, regardless of how good your choice might seem to be at first glance.

[leonair]

I would like to ask everyone here who is into sports betting for some advice. I've come to realize that maybe I should start fading myself. I've noticed that my recent gambling journey hasn't been profitable, so I'm thinking maybe I'm missing something. I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

The concepts of this thread is very hilarious, personally I have only thought about this I haven't practiced it, is quite funny and it will take extral mind for any one play against his picks, I know it is a reality in the game of sports betting where at most times the unfortunate opposite will be become the surprising outcome how funny could that be. But however, it is a fact that every gambler has to accept, no certainty or guarantee towards whatever that might be your favorite picks , betting is a game of try your luck and shouldn't be completely rely on, the reason why it is always advisable not to gamble with more than what you can afford to lose, know your limit and stand by it.

Gambling is never won with confidence but our guesses are often correct with long experience of gambling. But if you gamble with confidence, you can surely win, I have not seen it happen in anyone's case. But sometimes we can bet with confidence for sports because sometimes when a strong team plays against a weak team it is very easy to predict which team will win. then it is possible to win by betting with confidence  But this is not always the case. so we have to accept gambling risk and loss there.

[Mia Chloe]

When placing gambling bets , most of the time the gambler often measures  his level of confidence based on how much he is able to analyze the bet based on some factors like his. Level of experience and even his calculative ability based on that game relative to how much luck he hopes to have on his side to be able to ace the bet. However sometimes analysis could go wrong and even in a confident state, the gambler can also lose the bet.
This is one of the main reasons why gambling is often referred as a game of luck. This is mainly because even when gamblers are able to input their calculative and perspective ability they still depend on some level of luck to be able to make gambling wins. Even if the level of luck isn't same as well as huge for all games it is still an important factor.

[ethereumhunter]

Many gamblers still fall for that, taking gambling as means to earn quick big money without minding to accept the obvious fact about gambling which is fun and nothing else, most of them that have experienced some bad outcome from gambling all dis so because of the false belief that gambling can be taken as a short caught to gaining wealth.
That is the reason why most gambling addicts are as a result of greed and misplaced judgment about gambling and how to handle it outcomes.

Best to stay away from gambling if you know you have problems with just gambling for fun and also ready to lose all that you gamble with, and still be ok because at that point you will be a balance gambler regardless of what the outcome of the games could become.

That's why people should not thinks to makes money from gambling as they will only gets more lose. Even if they feels confident with their picks, they don't have to be serious in gambling because the outcomes can't always the same as what they wants. Many times the outcomes changes in the end of the match so they must realizes that they only use gambling to have fun. We can still analyze the match but we must realizes our chance will still 50/50 because it's gambling where no certain results for us. If you can use gambling for fun, you will not thinks much about playing gambling because you always aware that gambling is not a place for makes money. You will only use some money to playing gambling moderately because you wants to avoids many problems that can occurs in gambling.

[Rabata]

Many gamblers still fall for that, taking gambling as means to earn quick big money without minding to accept the obvious fact about gambling which is fun and nothing else, most of them that have experienced some bad outcome from gambling all dis so because of the false belief that gambling can be taken as a short caught to gaining wealth.
That is the reason why most gambling addicts are as a result of greed and misplaced judgment about gambling and how to handle it outcomes.

Best to stay away from gambling if you know you have problems with just gambling for fun and also ready to lose all that you gamble with, and still be ok because at that point you will be a balance gambler regardless of what the outcome of the games could become.

That's why people should not thinks to makes money from gambling as they will only gets more lose. Even if they feels confident with their picks, they don't have to be serious in gambling because the outcomes can't always the same as what they wants. Many times the outcomes changes in the end of the match so they must realizes that they only use gambling to have fun. We can still analyze the match but we must realizes our chance will still 50/50 because it's gambling where no certain results for us. If you can use gambling for fun, you will not thinks much about playing gambling because you always aware that gambling is not a place for makes money. You will only use some money to playing gambling moderately because you wants to avoids many problems that can occurs in gambling.

No matter how good a gambler's analysis is, if he cannot win, he will not consider his analysis correct. But in reality even if the analysis is correct, he could not win because he had no luck. Gambling may or may not win but don't depend too much on it. When it is not taken seriously, losing there will have no effect. We should remember that we will never have a guaranteed win in gambling. In my gambling career I was not sure about certain bets but was confident and managed to win about 60-70 percent of those bets. But i cannot be confident in all bets.

[EarnOnVictor]

I would like to ask everyone here who is into sports betting for some advice. I've come to realize that maybe I should start fading myself. I've noticed that my recent gambling journey hasn't been profitable, so I'm thinking maybe I'm missing something. I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

The concepts of this thread is very hilarious, personally I have only thought about this I haven't practiced it, is quite funny and it will take extral mind for any one play against his picks, I know it is a reality in the game of sports betting where at most times the unfortunate opposite will be become the surprising outcome how funny could that be. But however, it is a fact that every gambler has to accept, no certainty or guarantee towards whatever that might be your favorite picks , betting is a game of try your luck and shouldn't be completely rely on, the reason why it is always advisable not to gamble with more than what you can afford to lose, know your limit and stand by it.

I do not find it hilarious, rather it should be able to make OP think outside the box when next he places a bet. I think OP just experimented it by playing against his picks since his picks are usually not in his favour. Fortunately for him, his new decision paid off. This brings me to these conclusions, probably OP always places bets base on how he feels about the teams involved. His emotions plays the most role in the choices he makes. Now he understands where he got it wrong all along, he can take better approaches while placing bets next time. This is gambling and ofcourse there is no 100% guarantee that any strategy is the best, but the most important thing to note is that you are not the one aiding your losses with your wrong decisions all the time.

Bro, in contrast to your opinion, I found it more hilarious and odd at the same time, something that will not see the light of day. For the fact that the OP is happy now due to the luck he had in the first pick does not mean that this is a good idea. Unless the initial strategy of the gambler is bad from the onset, that is how this kind of strategy can be practicable. You might have a very strong trading strategy with a 75% winning, which means that your probability of losing is also 25%. Regardless, if you are a good manager of your gambling and its portfolio, it will be easy for you to work with the 75% winning and manage your way to success even as you use the opportunity to override the possibility of losing which is 25%.

By that, it is not that you will not be losing at times but you have limited the impact in your betting, and in the long run, you would have an above-average high success since the 75% chance of winning is greater than the 25% chance of losing. Now, think it this way, the possibility of losing is 25%, the time that the OP won in his narration might merely be the time of the 25% of losing possibility. But for the fact that it better it in the opposite of his startegy, he now won it. But what about the higher chance (75%) of winning with the same strategy? What happens has he now turns to 75% of losing due to his propose opposite strategy? I think this strategy will never last long regardless of what anyone tells me, unless he had a bad strategy initially.

[goaldigger]

It depends on the type of bet you choose to play like if it involves accumulated matches or just a single match but most gamblers do complain that picking familiar options for a bet doesn't work most of the time like for instance predicting a team that is on winning streak to keep winning doesn't go as predicted because the day you will choose them to win with confidence that they have always been winning is the day they will either lose or draw but since gambling is more of luck it does not matter if you use familiar options for an event but if you are just lucky to pick correctly you can win.

It is not working all the time but when you have that good guts and believe that you picked the right team to bet, then most of the time you’ll hit a win. I bet with confidence though I don’t always win but still I make effort to have a good bet and always be responsible for that bet, luck will still be there in betting and if you’re feeling it, then take the risk without regrets.

[Issa56]

I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

Will I say your strategy is really effective, or should I say you are just lucky for now. It might not really last for you. How are you going to do your analysis, then you will decide to place a bet opposite your analysis, it’s not really a good idea to me. If you know you will be going against your analysis, then why stress yourself out doing analysis? To save yourself from that kind of stress, you should just pick randomly and place your bet. You have to be careful because time might come when you will start losing money unnecessarily. Make sure you always control yourself when gambling.

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting?

If my picks aren’t hitting, then I will just check what’s wrong, maybe during that period, I will have to gamble less. When gambling, there is always a period when you are going to be winning frequently, and time will come when you will be losing, so just because I am losing doesn’t mean I will start placing bets against my analysis.