When you are confident with your picks, do you win most of the time?

[Stable090]

Sometimes I also do this kind of strategy, I will go on the opposite on what I thought to be betting and surprisingly, it's also good for me.

I haven’t tried something like this before. Whenever I am gambling, I always follow whatever my mind tells me, I don’t go against it. You don’t really expect me to be winning frequently, there will be losses sometimes, but I think it works for me like that, and it’s really better. Before I decide to conclude on the side that I will be placing my bet on, I will have taken my time to do my analysis. I will see that if I place my bet, I have higher chances of winning the bet, so I will have to proceed. So after I do my analysis and I know I might be winning the bet if I place it, then why will I decide to do it the other way around.

[Findingnemo]

I would like to ask everyone here who is into sports betting for some advice. I've come to realize that maybe I should start fading myself. I've noticed that my recent gambling journey hasn't been profitable, so I'm thinking maybe I'm missing something. I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

This isn't a strategy but superstitious belief and coincidence met at the the same time.

Can you elaborate on whether you won the bet every time or most of the time? Cause that can give an explanation of what you are seeking from others. If I were you I would just hope on with this thing as long as it gives me the result but it's become obvious when you started to feel that goes against your expectations right?

[Slow death]

In my case I would say no, that's because I'm rarely very confident when I place my bets, I always prefer to think that there's a greater chance of me losing than thinking that there's a greater chance of me winning. In my opinion, thinking negatively in this case seems to be the best option because that way, when I lose a bet, I easily accept that defeat, whereas when a person becomes very confident, that person starts to create high expectations about that bet, even Start making plans for what you will buy when you win a bet. He no longer thinks about whether he wins, he starts thinking about when he wins. in other words, start watching the bet

as being an absolute certainty that he will win, and there are cases where when a person feels very confident that he has got the bet right, he puts in a lot of money, these cases happen a lot and then when people lose everything they go into despair

He decided he could win it all back with one final bet and staked £50,000 on a single horse. When it lost, he accepted his life was over.

source: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-56251835

Most of the time, when people feel very confident in gambling, they make serious mistakes, such as: losing money that they could not afford to lose.

[Strongkored]

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

I've done it several times and the results are good, but there are also the opposite, so I don't use this method too often or always, and if it turns out you can produce results and the opposite is true then that's good, it means you've found the right method and you can continue. do it but I'm sure you can get disappointing results too, and what's important is what the winning rate is from the opposite way or the usual thing, if the winning rate from the opposite way is much better then that could be a method that continues to be done or combines them because maybe the winning rate will be higher.

[moneystery]

I haven’t tried something like this before. Whenever I am gambling, I always follow whatever my mind tells me, I don’t go against it. You don’t really expect me to be winning frequently, there will be losses sometimes, but I think it works for me like that, and it’s really better ....

shouldn't it be like that? how could anyone be willing to gamble against what they believe? if they bet in that way, doesn't that mean that they have the wrong analysis and they should correct the mistake. because it doesn't make sense to me when someone gambles but they gamble against what they believe in, that means they just hope for luck that what they bet on can win and ignore their own analysis.

[davis196]

I would like to ask everyone here who is into sports betting for some advice. I've come to realize that maybe I should start fading myself. I've noticed that my recent gambling journey hasn't been profitable, so I'm thinking maybe I'm missing something. I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

I usually lose, when I'm confident about my sports bets. Maybe that's why I make really small bets and I tend to avoid parlay bets.
Trusting your gut feeling is a wrong approach, if you ask me. You need proper analysis of the teams you are betting on.
Don't fool yourself that your new method is going to win consistently. Maybe you just got lucky and in the next time your bets, that are opposite to your analysis are going to lose. At the end of the day, sports betting is based on luck, just like every other form of gambling.

[STT]

I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

Yes it takes alot of humble thinking to realize maybe you should take the other side of your bet.    Sometimes this might mean you hedge a bet, especially if the odds advance further and favor doing so.

I'd rank this level of versatility as top level betting, where the gamble is more important then your own ego.  You have to be pretty nimble in your emotional flexibility to do this and explore the profitability of each side to the bet; we all have bias for sure.

[hedgeh0g]

It’s likely that you simply don’t have a large enough sample of your opposite bets that brought you profit, I don’t remember how many bets you need to make to understand that we have a winning strategy, but it’s a large number. I want to say that your result may not be objective and it was just an accident, but of course I could be wrong too.

I don’t want to stand still in gambling, I’m always interested in trying something new and looking for different strategies, although I understand that there is a lot of garbage among them. Well, it’s the search for this that attracts me most, because I like to constantly learn something new. I once tried to bet on what I wanted, but never tried the opposite bets. Maybe someone will find this interesting, but I will look for other strategies, because your strategy has a fragile foundation.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

I would like to ask everyone here who is into sports betting for some advice. I've come to realize that maybe I should start fading myself. I've noticed that my recent gambling journey hasn't been profitable, so I'm thinking maybe I'm missing something. I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

Well, my advice in matters like this have always been that, what ever we do and find rewarding in gambling, then keep doing it, after all, it's all about having fun, and we all know that there is no fun in constantly losing money all the time.

I personally, based on my own experiences have stopped being confident in my picks, because just like you, I most of the time end up losing even when I am most confident for a win, this usually breaks my heart and spirit, that is, you know how it feels to trust and have confidence in yourself over something, only to at the end of the day, realize that you were completely wrong about that thing, most especially when there are people who actually believed in you with their bets, it can make a person feel like a complete failure some times.

So, to avoid such feeling, I've stopped believing in my own picks, and this has always made be feel better in times when it turned out I was wrong, since it's something I've predicted will happen.

[boyptc]

No.

Even I can say that I am following the news in the esports which is also another form of sportsbetting. Despite that I am confident with my picks, you will never know what can happen in-game.

This is the same for the other traditional sports too, some injuries can come and key players won't be able to play.

That's the same in esports although in other form as in in-game, come backs as we call it when the team you bet is about to lose but then they start to regain better plays and gradually wins the game.

[stadus]

It’s likely that you simply don’t have a large enough sample of your opposite bets that brought you profit, I don’t remember how many bets you need to make to understand that we have a winning strategy, but it’s a large number. I want to say that your result may not be objective and it was just an accident, but of course I could be wrong too.

I don’t want to stand still in gambling, I’m always interested in trying something new and looking for different strategies, although I understand that there is a lot of garbage among them. Well, it’s the search for this that attracts me most, because I like to constantly learn something new. I once tried to bet on what I wanted, but never tried the opposite bets. Maybe someone will find this interesting, but I will look for other strategies, because your strategy has a fragile foundation.

Confidence in betting should always be present. Take that away, and you’ll never have fun in sports betting anymore. When we are confident, it's a sign that we understand what we are doing and believe our strategy will bring us wins. You can bet against yourself if you think you lose most of the time with your strategy, but for how long? You might win temporarily, but your strategy might not be sustainable in the long term. The only strategy that will make you profitable in the long run is one that you can develop over time.

This is gambling, where bookies are very clever, so we should be the same. Make adjustments when the strategy is not working so we can still end up profitable in the end.

[I_Anime]

Honestly speaking having confident with my picks, doesn't favour me that much, but when I just pick without putting or having any confident am going to win , most time I always endup winning and it will just look like a joke .

But still that doesn't change anything tho, being confident or not one is still going to lose , because gambling is mainly all about luck, so there's possibility of one going to loss or wins , is just depend on one luck that moment.

[Psynthax]

I mean if you are confident then there's nothing stopping you from getting that win but since there are many things that could determin the outcome of your picks you shouldn't get your hopes too high otherwise when thing goes wrong you will feel immense regret.
remember having confidence in your pick doesn't mean somehow the universe will favour you and what ever you pick suddenly gonna be the best pick in this world.
you should realize that in some platform the odds are adjusted so that it has 50:50 chance.

so honestly even with confident, if the pick is shit then its shit, there's no excuse at all, like in football, the biggest club can get rekt by the smaller club.
its just how it works, sometime things turns out as expected, or not at all.
overall, its just depends on your luck, thats why its called speculation in the first place, you can make prediction, but the outcome doesn't necessarily align with your prediction.

[noormcs5]

I would like to ask everyone here who is into sports betting for some advice. I've come to realize that maybe I should start fading myself. I've noticed that my recent gambling journey hasn't been profitable, so I'm thinking maybe I'm missing something. I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

Well, to be profitable in gambling and betting is not an ordinary thing. Only a few people are always lucky in gambling and many will just face the hard luck with gambling. Even if one is confident with his predictions does not mean that he will be able to win the bets. Many times, he will just lose the game and bet, because upsets so happen in gambling.

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

As far as betting is concerned, you would not depend on a single strategy when placing the bets. Some people always place the bet on the low odd team as these are bets which are more likely to be won but the odds are low. Some people will risk less money but will place the bets on higher odds. The chances of losing such bets are more but if you win such bets it will be of higher profitability. It depends on how one would like to bet and the betting strategy varies from person to person.

[Ruttoshi]

Honestly speaking having confident with my picks, doesn't favour me that much, but when I just pick without putting or having any confident am going to win , most time I always endup winning and it will just look like a joke .

But still that doesn't change anything tho, being confident or not one is still going to lose , because gambling is mainly all about luck, so there's possibility of one going to loss or wins , is just depend on one luck that moment.

Over confidence is bad when you are gambling, because it can lead you to big loss. This is why when gambling don't be confidence but just have it in your mind that a loss is also part of the game, and don't believe that you will win the game. If you do, you might end up losing. I have seen a gambler that thinks it is by his skills and forgets that gambling is based on luck and he bet all his bankroll because he felt that he has known the trick of winning.

When he lost it all that was when he came to me that he was stupid to have confidence in that trick just because it worked for him yesterday, he never knew that it was his luck that made him win those bets he won the previous day. When you gamble for fun, you will not have any confidence because you want to entertain yourself, you just do your picks and whatever is the outcome, you are cool with it.

[Bravut]

One of the most important factor in sport betting is following our own personal rules, not jeopardizing it for anything. Confidence in gambling has to be whatever outcome I accept be it win or loss. Once we can shape our minds this way, we would be okay either in a winning or Lossing situation, because nothing is guaranteed.

You just place your bet, and ensure you stake the amount you are willing to lose and relax for whatever outcome.

[Zanab247]

Honestly speaking having confident with my picks, doesn't favour me that much, but when I just pick without putting or having any confident am going to win , most time I always endup winning and it will just look like a joke.

Maybe you are not familiar with the game, because there are some games you will bet with a huge amount of money, you will have the confidence of winning which i have experienced such thing from my gambling.

I guess we have some gamblers like you, who use the same partner with you and they are enjoying their gambling because they bet base on they are not expecting anything from betting and they will win something or lose something which they cannot guarantee their winning.

But still that doesn't change anything tho, being confident or not one is still going to lose , because gambling is mainly all about luck, so there's possibility of one going to loss or wins , is just depend on one luck that moment.

Despite gambling is a luck, but is still require knowledge to make your winning higher than losing because there are some bet you will play base on your gambling experience, it will come to pass but it will not give you exactly the amount of money you targeted for the game.

[Sunderland]

shouldn't it be like that? how could anyone be willing to gamble against what they believe? if they bet in that way, doesn't that mean that they have the wrong analysis and they should correct the mistake. because it doesn't make sense to me when someone gambles but they gamble against what they believe in, that means they just hope for luck that what they bet on can win and ignore their own analysis.

Its a myth, a gamble fallacy and many people still gamble with that way, especially for those who gamble on sports every day.
They believe that they will win more often by betting against their own predictions after experiencing a losing streak based on their own analysis and predictions.

[0t3p0t]

Honestly speaking having confident with my picks, doesn't favour me that much, but when I just pick without putting or having any confident am going to win , most time I always endup winning and it will just look like a joke .

But still that doesn't change anything tho, being confident or not one is still going to lose , because gambling is mainly all about luck, so there's possibility of one going to loss or wins , is just depend on one luck that moment.

Yeah confidence does not guarantee a favorable winning as it always depends on your luck in a particular bet you have placed. I know we all experience this kind of thing where at some point we are confident enough but it always turn against our luck and I consider this thing as normal in the gambling industry.

[Tmoonz]

Yes I do win most of the time, in as much as being confidence is not enough  for any one to win but it is always good to have certain believe over what we consider to have possibilities, being confident puts you in the position of making an informed decisions in terms of making your best picks and your staking power, but however, we  do feel so much disappointed on seeing that what we presumed to have confident about didn't go the way we expected. nevertheless, it is just a game that has zero percent guarantee over getting expected outcome. What we do is just to clear our conscience by picking what we feel is the best and wait for what will be the outcome of it, gambling with only the amount that you can afford to lose is what will put you in a better emotional condition when the outcome of your picks  didn't come to your favor.