Bitcoin supply shock will come, price will make new ATH

[OcTradism]

While everyone was freaking out that #Bitcoin price was not rising the last 2 months, available BTC was quietly being scooped up, and importantly without paper BTC printed in its place.

Last time I'll say it... It's only a matter of time before BTC squeezes past all-time-highs.

Glassnode Insights Week 21, 2024 report, A macro reset.

Summary and Conclusions

Following an intense period of mature investor distribution into the $73K ATH, sell-side pressure has markedly declined. This has led to a reduction in headwinds and overhead resistance, with even only modest demand able to stimulate positive price action.

Alongside this, volatility continues to compress across longer timeframes, whilst a dense cluster of supply has formed below our current spot price, potentially providing a robust foundation to build upon.

Money flow from Bitcoin Spot ETFs starts to be green again after some weeks of outflow, red.
Bitcoin network flow


Keep up your DCA, if you have money to DCA more bitcoin and keep up your Bitcoin hodling, do it patiently with time, in coming months, you will be rewarded very good profit.

[AVE5]

Keep up your DCA, if you have money to DCA more bitcoin and keep up your Bitcoin hodling, do it patiently with time, in coming months, you will be rewarded very good profit.

While I don't have to believe that investors who're not under financial pressures would sell their bitcoins, the patient dogs to eat the fattest bones would always hold without selling even at a common attractive green lines and while we don't need to be around a circle of minimum profits, buying and accumulating more is way forward of maximizing your goals.

[Luzin]

Keep up your DCA, if you have money to DCA more bitcoin and keep up your Bitcoin hodling, do it patiently with time, in coming months, you will be rewarded very good profit.

This is an interesting accumulation, I hope it's not a fake signal. Because some moments I see there is a fake phase that starts a new ATH. But I am indeed very optimistic that Bitcoin has a better value for the post halving period. This is because 2 times I have passed that period.

Hopefully there are no bad fundamentals such as the decision to raise interest rates by the Fed due to inflation. Because in some periods an interest rate hike can always undermine the acceleration of Bitcoin's price increase. Meanwhile political issues and decisions by the SEC I think can be a good and bad fundamental for this bull period. As I read June 11-12, the Fed will make a decision on the next interest rate policy

DCA is the best option, I think those who have more money power is good strategi. Because they have oportunity to excecute in much moment. It doesn't apply much to me due to money limitations. I just keep trying not to sell BTC before I can see the realistic targets I have planned. Hopefully, the Great Bull will come soon and we can make good use of that moment.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-price-prediction-2024/

[Agbamoni]

Many individuals are investing more into Bitcoin through the Bitcoin ETFs and it is not a surprise because Bitcoin rose above 70k in the past few days and had shown that the green candle is back which we may see more of that in the coming weeks. Whats shocking or surprising is that who would these new investors and old investors choose to buy now when the market has already risen above 70k. I was expecting this market flow during the little dip that Bitcoin did. Perhaps during the dip many were looking for sellers to sell but everybody held to their coins and it green to choose to sell to the hungry buyers.

[sv2022]

Yep, I am confident that this will come too. 

[promise444c5]

We might still experience a dip but the previous trend was actually broken since May 15 and i think the major  supply point have been reached again  let's  see what it brings this time....
Keep holding  and DCA your way into profits there'll  sure be a nice ROI  for you  

[Supianto]

Well, that's kinda obvious, supply is getting lower, and there is less and less BTC on exchanges. And I'm a small part of that too, been taking BTC from exchanges to OWNR wallet.

[yazher]

We might still experience a dip but the previous trend was actually broken since May 15 and i think the major  supply point have been reached again  let's  see what it brings this time....
Keep holding  and DCA your way into profits there'll  sure be a nice ROI  for you  

This is what we expected after the halving event because after it mostly we gonna experience a rise in the price of bitcoins which creates a new ATH based on its past history. right now we are seeing it's happening again that's why everyone was recommended to hold when they saw that nothing has happened since the Bitcoin halving because bull runs are not happening with halving at the same time rather it will come lately and now this is the sign for us to be patient and sooner we will gonna see another ATH after this.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

This is what we expected after the halving event because after it mostly we gonna experience a rise in the price of bitcoins which creates a new ATH based on its past history. right now we are seeing it's happening again that's why everyone was recommended to hold when they saw that nothing has happened since the Bitcoin halving because bull runs are not happening with halving at the same time rather it will come lately and now this is the sign for us to be patient and sooner we will gonna see another ATH after this.

Panic can appear quickly with a fud on the market and people will response immediately with panic sell.

It's difference on how greed will appear in the market because it takes more time to warm up, to spread news for people to read, hear, watch and slowly digest it with a long time. The warm up time is very long like months and people need time to do their research, go from doubt to a little bit interested in but still hesitate to invest. Finally they decide to invest or just spend money and very shortly after that, we will see FOMO wave on the market.

FOMO does not last too long but it will last longer than panic time. People will have more time like days, weeks to take profit than time to sell, cut loss or close their position to avoid margin calls, liquidations.

[pakhitheboss]

snip..

The topic looks more like a speculation one than a discussion to be fair. The topic headline looks more like a clickbait to be fair than an actual discussion.

I am not denying the fact that Bitcoin ETF is the singular effect that helped Bitcoin break it's ATH before the halving. This price surge will be the first in the history of Bitcoin price that happened before an organic bull run happened. By organic bull run I meant a demand created naturally due to halving. I am loving it and all those who have been diamond hands or those doing DCA.

I will still not believe in charts as mostly they are incorrect with Bitcoin prediction. I prefer news over charts as that is how Bitcoin has been surviving over all odds till now.

[DaveF]

The topic looks more like a speculation one than a discussion to be fair. The topic headline looks more like a clickbait to be fair than an actual discussion.

That is because it is.

I am not denying the fact that Bitcoin ETF is the singular effect that helped Bitcoin break it's ATH before the halving. This price surge will be the first in the history of Bitcoin price that happened before an organic bull run happened. By organic bull run I meant a demand created naturally due to halving. I am loving it and all those who have been diamond hands or those doing DCA.

There are / were other factors at play too. There are / were a lot of other things that made people look at other assets for investments then traditional ones.

I will still not believe in charts as mostly they are incorrect with Bitcoin prediction. I prefer news over charts as that is how Bitcoin has been surviving over all odds till now.

Glassnode talks out their ass. They act like they know everything and it has been proven many times that they are wrong.
They see a bunch of BTC "leave" an exchange and tell everyone it's outflow. A few weeks later it is found out that they moved the BTC to what was at the time an unknown cold storage address that still belonged to the exhcnage....

-Dave

[Kelward]

I can't agree less with your speculations, every events in the Bitcoin space are indicators that we're going to experience a massive bull run and a new ATH price in it's peak. The Bitcoin ETF and halving this year had prepared us for a supply shock, like you phrased it, so it's not late to start or continue accumulating because harvest season will mature in bull run ATH.

[sunsilk]

Keep up your DCA, if you have money to DCA more bitcoin and keep up your Bitcoin hodling, do it patiently with time, in coming months,

We all have to be patient. While there have been hypes left and right on the crypto market, Bitcoin remains to be stably moving up and crossing back to its new ATH that has been reached.

you will be rewarded very good profit.

Only if they will be patient and able to make it because in the upcoming months, surely there will be greater prices and they're going to be tempted to sell.

But no matter at what prices they sell, if they're in profit then that's the main reason why we've held.

[OcTradism]

I can't agree less with your speculations, every events in the Bitcoin space are indicators that we're going to experience a massive bull run and a new ATH price in it's peak. The Bitcoin ETF and halving this year had prepared us for a supply shock, like you phrased it, so it's not late to start or continue accumulating because harvest season will mature in bull run ATH.

I don't speculate but my belief is that supply shock will help price because Supply and Demand Principle always works. It does not show effects immediately but supply shocks and increasing, bigger demand will absorb gradually in the market and participants. When skew between supply and demand is big enough, we will see big reflection on price.

It is true that on chain parameters can be changed quickly because people are free to move their bitcoins on chain any time. They can move their bitcoins in exchanges or out exchanges very quickly but I believe the Supply and Demand Principle is important.

Halving will cause a skew between Supply and Demand towards Demand, that will help trading volume and price.

[kotajikikox]

Perhaps during the dip many were looking for sellers to sell but everybody held to their coins and it green to choose to sell to the hungry buyers.

During price decline, it just means that there’s not much demand to buy bitcoin and those who are holding it are basically not in any pressure to sell.

Now however during times of price increase, those who have held since a long time ago might now see an opportunity to finally claim their profit. As the price rises, more and more people are going to want to buy which will further increase the value of bitcoin.

[Poker Player]

I'm still accumulating and I think the price will go up for the rest of the year, but that's just looking at the Bitcoin available on the exchanges.... I remember the previous cycle the same thing happened, everyone expecting a higher price rise because of the supposed shock and the price started to go down and we entered a bear market. So I don't trust that metric very much.

[yhiaali3]

“Continue your DCA” This is my favorite tip, yes this is the best strategy to follow at the moment and the best investment advice.

Real long-term investors know well the value of this advice and they do not care about all these temporary rises and falls, unlike speculators who burn their nerves in front of screens watching the decline and rise of indicators.

I am confident that the big rise is coming and I am completely reassured that we will achieve an unprecedented historical ATH, so I will not waste my time monitoring indicators.

[fauzan Ichsan]

Perhaps during the dip many were looking for sellers to sell but everybody held to their coins and it green to choose to sell to the hungry buyers.

During price decline, it just means that there’s not much demand to buy bitcoin and those who are holding it are basically not in any pressure to sell.

Now however during times of price increase, those who have held since a long time ago might now see an opportunity to finally claim their profit. As the price rises, more and more people are going to want to buy which will further increase the value of bitcoin.

Basically, economics greatly influences price changes that occur. Here our task is to find the right time to buy or sell it. It seems easy, but it has classic challenges, where greed and panic are a threat that must be overcome within us, which of course we must have knowledge so that we can analyze and draw the work area, so that there is a target that can be taken advantage of.

[d5000]

I don't disagree with the conclusion drawn in the OP. I would also recommend to continue a DCA-based strategy now, as I see us firmly in a bull market, even if there may more dips to follow.

However, I want to point out that the exchange holding graphs of Cryptoquant, Glassnode etc. look much more dramatic than they really are.

For example, between January 2023 and today according to Cryptoquant the exchange holdings went down from 2.2 million to 1.9 million Bitcoins. 300000 BTC less, that is a respectable number, you'll say It's the equivalent of 20.4 billion USD (at a price of 68000$ per BTC).

But this equation is wrong, because the BTC price in January 2023 (Edit: lol, I wrote 2020 first) was at about $20000.

So if you take the dollar value, the USD value of BTC exchange holdings went actually up, and by a lot - from 44 billion USD to 129 billion! This means exactly what it means: that you need almost three times the dollars to buy all Bitcoins on exchanges than in January 2023!

Now some will be scared a bit perhaps But that wasn't actually my intention. This is something that happens in all bull markets. But it is also one of the reasons why the volatility at the end of the bull markets is so high. For a supercycle or so, we'll need much more dramatic decreases of the exchange supply.

[AnonBitCoiner]

We might still experience a dip but the previous trend was actually broken since May 15 and i think the major  supply point have been reached again  let's  see what it brings this time....
Keep holding  and DCA your way into profits there'll  sure be a nice ROI  for you  

We can experience both the situations of fall and rise because the crypto market cannot remain longer in a similar pattern like two days ago there was 71k$ of worth but now it is 69k$ so we have experienced fall in value which is not a new thing in the market.

Whales are trading on huge scale so therefore the market fluctuates a lot but as the supply of Bitcoin is the same and Bitcoin cannot increase in its number therefore when the buying rate increases then price also increases so we trust that very soon we will see another ATH. Apply the DCA and take the benefit from every situation without getting into a worried situation about what will happen.