When will the bears take advantage? This bull run lasts so long

[SOKO-DEKE]

This year I was expecting that we would see a main bull run later after halving, in winter, like we see traditionally but today the situation is absolutely different, we saw an all-time high of many coins very soon and the price has been increasing for months, good news after good news, now I can't imagine how long this bull market will last. At the moment, it looks like there is no place for bears and after so much positive news, I can't imagine what should happen to make people start selling.
What do you think, when will bears take advantage and start dominating the market? Is this bull run the major bull run that we will see till the next halving?

Yes, bull runs are always expected after each halving and last for a few months before the bear market takes over. At this point, I don’t think the bear market will take over soon, but even the pumps in many coins, I think, were caused by good news like the ETF approval of Bitcoin. Since we witnessed this new halving, Bitcoin has not pumped like that, so we are really expecting more pumps from Bitcoin and some other altcoins.

I believe, despite the good news coming about cryptocurrency always nowadays as people are expecting more pumps in Bitcoin. Some people will still sell their Bitcoin because their aim was just to invest for a short time and take a profit. There are many investors in the cryptocurrency industry now who are only there because of the bull run. So, some people must sell, and there are some big investors among them. If they start selling, some new investors will start panicking too, and from there, it can start leading to a bear market.

[$weetne$$]

What do you think, when will bears take advantage and start dominating the market? Is this bull run the major bull run that we will see till the next halving?

Do some research so you do no get things wrong or it will affect your investing plans and you will make the wrong investment or get your timing wrong. The bears has already taken over the market and are currently dominating but let us not lose hope because they would not stay in the market very long. The bull market we experienced was not the last bull market before we start looking towards another Bitcoin halving, there are more bull moments that are yet to come and we will start having them soon until Bitcoin rise to a new highest price that should be anywhere above $100,000 but this will also depend on how hyped the market gets. Already we have institutional investors now in the game so it should not be surprising if we record very high milestones being reached by Bitcoin price.

[tabas]

That's true and we have to wait until it comes next year. This is still a long period of this bull run cycle and all of us are optimistic for its run. I'm holding to my holdings and I know that the right time will come and everyone is planning to get their share worth it when the time has come.

Five years ago, I wouldn't have believed that a bull market would come the following year. However, after the last bull market, I've come to understand that Bitcoin's current price levels make it unlikely for a sudden surge in just 1 or 2 months. Instead, the price will rise with frequent dips, making it hard to predict when the bull market is truly established.

That's right, that's how it goes before we finally see the real bull run. Although it comes with phase, and I guess we're on the phase 1 as we're just a few months from the halving. The effect won't be immediate but we did saw some unexpected rise before even the halving came for which it had brought Bitcoin a new all time high. But I'd believe that was just the beginning of it and there's more to go.

This uncertainty has trapped many long-time traders who didn't take enough profit, or any profit at all, during the last market cycle.

And by this time, many are going to make sure that they get their profit. A long time is more than enough for a reason to take what you deserve for holding for so long but don't sell them all.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Nowadays it is difficult to expect sellers to dominate. A lot of ETFs entered Bitcoin at a fairly high price and were clearly in it for the long haul. More precisely, I can fully accept that holders may dump part of their positions upon reaching $100,000, for example, but selling right now is a bit strange. We know how fast government debt is growing in America and how fast the money supply m2 is growing. I don't see any significant reasons to sell yet.

[Lucius]

I don't know if you have been active in the past two years, but you are asking questions that you should know the answer to. You and everyone else should have realized how important the spot BTC ETF (US) was to the price, but you obviously thought the halving was the only thing to wait for.

I missed a year or two on this forum and in the crypto world recently. I understand how important the spot Bitcoin ETF approval was but things are very strange. When ETF approval was announced, the price was pumping up but when it got officially approved, it looked like almost nothing happened, then very slowly, the price continued rising but on the other hand, we also see that the price has been rising up steadily for a very long time and it went from 15K to 70K which is a huge boost, it's not 2016 when the price was 500 dollars.
As I was expecting, the price fell from 72K and it's down to 66K.

I think that many underestimated the approval of spot BTC ETFs (US), because they thought that it was something similar to futures ETFs. This only shows that the average investor cannot properly assess the influence of various factors on the market and that he exclusively relies on already known patterns such as halving.

What surprises you and many others was quite predictable, because supply and demand played its role (and still does), and when someone buys over half a million BTC in a few months, it must have an impact on the price.

What is currently happening with the price is a logical short-term profit taking. Although 5-10% price movement in both directions doesn't seem like much to you and me, don't forget that investors who have a lot of BTC can earn a lot from such changes.

[AnonBitCoiner]

Actually the bull season seems longer because the effects of halving take place and people have to hold their coins until they reach their target value so the price will remain higher until the demand remains higher. Bear and bull seasons are regularly coming one after the other but no one has the ability to predict the starting and ending of such a season. 

We will see bull season till the middle of next year because halving effects were strong enough after each four years of duration but this time we have not seen any stronger effects that can bring new ATH of Bitcoin after the halving so I think we are in bull season yet but it is also not guaranteed that when bear will take place.

[justdimin]

Actually the bull season seems longer because the effects of halving take place and people have to hold their coins until they reach their target value so the price will remain higher until the demand remains higher. Bear and bull seasons are regularly coming one after the other but no one has the ability to predict the starting and ending of such a season. 

We will see bull season till the middle of next year because halving effects were strong enough after each four years of duration but this time we have not seen any stronger effects that can bring new ATH of Bitcoin after the halving so I think we are in bull season yet but it is also not guaranteed that when bear will take place.

Yes, it is not something that would happen very quickly, a lot of people think that it should be so quick, but that is not how any of this works. We should just consider how to move further from that, and we need to consider how to get better. I am very well aware of the situation and not really consider the deal that big.

I think we should definitely consider this to be a great move because if bitcoin went up very quickly, then everyone would buy at that moment and take profit and leave. But because it is not known exactly when it will happen, a lot more people keep on buying and making it work. That is why I believe that we should probably consider this as something that will be helping bitcoin on the long run.

[Rabata]

It is difficult to predict when the market will go down and when it will rise up. Even if this issue seems complicated to the investors, it must go through the normal course of the market, i.e. ups and downs. But when there is any hype or seller's sales pressure increases then the bearish market starts.
 As we have come through a long period of bearishness for which the bullish sentiment will naturally be lenient. Moreover, another reason is that Bitcoin price touched ATH quickly from the dip and stayed around $60k for a long time and the market will stay like this until it reaches $100k.

[Marvell1]

That's still a question mark, and if what you say is true it means we won't see a bear market anymore, bitcoin won't drop 50%-70% like before and that means that we will no longer have bull season. I mean we won't have a bull run like everyone expecting, a market where bitcoin will increase 2x, 3x from current price, many altcoins will increase x5-x10? And the market gradually start moving like the stock market?

Bitcoin gradually becomes more stable and profits from bitcoin will gradually become smaller. I don't want this to happen and I believe many people don't want this to happen either.

I think the bull and bear markets still exist but the scale is smaller and does not have a significant decline like the previous year or cycle, because the competition for accumulation is getting bigger because of the ETF the bitcoin market can also be touched by more investors, so many assume that the decline in bitcoin will not be as deep as in previous cycles, most of which used to be retail investors but now institutions that have greater financial fundamentals are also competing, regarding the possible increase I think it is far more likely that today's prices are still relatively cheap than what should get the attention of many investors.

The biggest reason is that we are not competing with retailers anymore in accumulating bitcoin.

If volatility decreases it will also make the cryptocurrency market less attractive because most of us choose bitcoin and cryptocurrencies because of their high volatility, and think the stock market is boring.

Personally, I am thinking of a scenario where bitcoin will gradually stabilize and will be the game of Wall Street, but with the altcoin market nothing will change. I mean bitcoin will gradually become an asset with stable growth like gold and no longer be as volatile as before, but the alts market will still have pump and dump cycles because that is necessary if the market makers want to retain and attract players. The volatile nature is what makes cryptocurrencies different from other markets, if it disappears people will lose interest.

If you pay attention to the bitcoin rainbow chart, you must have seen that bitcoin fluctuations have indeed decreased, but if compared to S&P or the wall street game that you made, bitcoin will be an asset that has higher fluctuations among assets such as stocks and others.

If talking about stable gold I don't think so, it's too far away, because bitcoin is the riskiest asset compared to gold if seen from my perspective, bitcoin will have a Dump and Pump cycle too but relatively lower, unless retail bitcoin investors have very massive growth it might have a much bigger impact on its fluctuations, because retail must be easily consumed by fomo and also panic sell.

Talking about altcoins is definitely crazier especially on coins or tokens that don't have many fundamentals.

Currently, you're right because bitcoin is still a more volatile asset and still one that offers higher returns than the stock market. But over the next few years, there's no guarantee that bitcoin will continue to maintain its volatility or become as boring as the stock market. Like I said, I don't want that to happen either because once bitcoin's volatility decreases that means our profits will also decrease. But I don't rule it out, Wall Street can do whatever they want.
But if that happens, I think we still have the altcoin market, a risky and volatile market  .

[Richbased]

I don't think that we'll see this bull run up until the next halving. But what's good is that every cycle that we're coming in, we're having a new higher low for Bitcoin and the price is going to be higher compared to the last cycle of bull run. And anticipating the bears, that might take on 2026 for which most of us are assuming that this year to 2025 is likely the actual bull run, and the peak might appear from 9-10 months from now on. But who knows? every cycle is becoming different and depends on the news that will come out unexpectedly.

Checking at previous historical data of Bitcoin price movement I don't think that a bull season can run till the next halving because as more investors are coming in others that have made some good profits will want to take their profits and when there is also a massive withdrawal of Bitcoin from exchanges to safe wallets it also affects the price of Bitcoin to fall so just like you said, every cycle comes with different expectations so let's see how far the bull will run till it starts becoming bearish but for now we should be expecting to see the price of Bitcoin reach it's peak after some months from now as that has always been the aftermath in previous halving seasons. However, the bear season may start between the fourth quarter of 2025 or the early stage of 2026 but it's not certain when the real bear season will happen.

[Gaza13]

It is difficult to predict when the market will go down and when it will rise up. Even if this issue seems complicated to the investors, it must go through the normal course of the market, i.e. ups and downs. But when there is any hype or seller's sales pressure increases then the bearish market starts.
 As we have come through a long period of bearishness for which the bullish sentiment will naturally be lenient. Moreover, another reason is that Bitcoin price touched ATH quickly from the dip and stayed around $60k for a long time and the market will stay like this until it reaches $100k.

Indeed, in investing we want to get maximum or optimal profits from our investment, but no one can predict exactly when the increase will occur. In my opinion, every decrease and increase is a very (common) thing that happens when we invest because it fluctuates. from market price movements, in my opinion investment is not just about when there is an increase or quick profit, if we have this kind of mindset in investing of course we will feel panic if prices experience a decline. In cases like this, it would be better if we could take advantage of the moments that occur in the market, if there is a moment of decline, at least we make good use of it if that moment occurs to continue accumulating our assets. In cases like this we need extra patience to get good results from optimal investment.