Is June a Downturn for the Crypto Market?

[AnonBitCoiner]

I don't really think so the movement of Bitcoin or crypto at Large is always volatile going upwards and downward it may be dip today the next day it pump up we can't really predict, but those that invested into Bitcoin shouldn't panic because Bitcoin investment is not like other coin in the Crypto market like shitcoins which is not reliable. For me the dip should be an opportunity for investors to accumulate more Bitcoin instead of panicking and stack enough Bitcoin in their bag and continue to hodl.

The market is highly volatile so if sometimes the market is not in a good condition then it does not mean that the market is going to collapse forever but sometimes there will be a pump and sometimes there will be a dump but one mistake which newbies are often doing is that they get afraid of market dumps and suddenly change their mind so they sell with loss.

Some altcoins are risky so if their price reduces then one can sell it to minimize the further loss but it should not be done with Bitcoin investment because Bitcoin is the only currency and investment tool which cannot give you loss until you lose your hope and sell with panic. Holding Bitcoin without keeping any negative thoughts in mind will help you to continue holding at least for one cycle which consists of four years.

[UmerIdrees]

The market is highly volatile so if sometimes the market is not in a good condition then it does not mean that the market is going to collapse forever but sometimes there will be a pump and sometimes there will be a dump but one mistake which newbies are often doing is that they get afraid of market dumps and suddenly change their mind so they sell with loss.

It is very hard to predict month by month as how the bitcoin price will behave. We cannot say that June will be a month where bitcoin price will dump because the price even if it dumps throughout this month, can also pump back by the end of the month. This is true for every month. The only think we can predcit is that over the next few months, the bitcoin will be in a bullish trend.

Some altcoins are risky so if their price reduces then one can sell it to minimize the further loss but it should not be done with Bitcoin investment because Bitcoin is the only currency and investment tool which cannot give you loss until you lose your hope and sell with panic. Holding Bitcoin without keeping any negative thoughts in mind will help you to continue holding at least for one cycle which consists of four years.

I think all the altcoins are dependent on the movement of bitcoin. If bitcoin dumps, even the best of the best altcoin will take a hit and dump badly. Similarly, a little pump in bitcoin price will make altcoin prices rise high. If anyone is doing investments in altcoisn, they should need to know that Bitcoin is the king of the crypto market and all altcoins movement direclty depends on bitcoin.

[darkangel11]

yeah people belief too much on some random sayings and the previous year chart shows that may or june is the month of downtrend doesn't mean it will happen when overall market greet index is at high and also we are at bullish. so that is anecdotal at best.
currently there's downturn because we've reached $73k not too long ago it does make sense for market to go down a little but there are many speculators out there saying that if bitcoin somehow cross $72k it will means another big rally coming for us which you shouldn't never take it as a financial advice but quite optimistic speculation coming from people probably gonna be self fulfilling prophecy.

To clarify, June is as much a red month as May. Historically there's almost no difference.
Greed index is just a random score that checks social media posts and other random stuff. When bitcoin is in a bear market it always shows fear. It used to show fear when bitcoin was -30% and -50% which is a big deal. If you saw the indicator at -30 you'd say there's not much to go down since it's fear already, then it would go to 50% and you'd say the same there's not much left, and then ift would go another 10% down and the indicator would also show greed, like it used to for the past year. Don't try to time your trades with fear indicator or you won't do good.
73k not long ago? Dude, that was in March!

[stompix]

You just have to look at Bitcoin's previous history,



https://www.coinglass.com/today

Year 2020, halving year, you can see that in June, we have a slight decreased in price at around -3%.

So it might be history repeating itself again, for all we know.

But if you look at the same table you will see that previously we had a 3 consecutive red month in May, yet we went green this year, so....
I've never changed my opinion that past data is meaningless on a small sample, and the more we add on top of those early years the more the randomness increases, plus we have events that will not repeat in the future or will not do it in the same month, like covid or the war in Ukraine or things that are definitely one time events like ETF approvals.

I think that to date Bitcoin has already broken all the patterns, including the no ATH before a cycle, no going below the previous ATH, no double ATH in a cycle, and a hundred more, it's about time we let go of the past and put more of an accent on what is expected in future.

[_BlackStar]

-snip-

-snip-
I think that to date Bitcoin has already broken all the patterns, including the no ATH before a cycle, no going below the previous ATH, no double ATH in a cycle, and a hundred more, it's about time we let go of the past and put more of an accent on what is expected in future.

I agree with your opinion - but how can we forget everything considering that there are still many people who really use the past as a benchmark in predicting the future?

As far as I know - the current optimism of holder and investor is because they have learned from past history, but it is perhaps somewhat realistic that now that pattern has been broken. The same pattern may or may not be repeated at all - but there are many other factors that support the same pattern repeating itself considering that we are pass the second month after the halving ^{[third month on going].} High flows in Spot ETF are likely to be expected throughout the year - but lower interest rates are certainly hopes.

[DeathAngel]

It certainly seems that may be the case presently doesn’t it. There seems to be insufficient buying interest to sustain any price above $70,000. We’re now at $65,000 & I’m not confident that $60,000 is guaranteed support either. I am reading lots about miners selling which could be true because Spot ETFs are doing well & we are after the halving now so price should go up soon. We need to see a bottom formed quickly though, it just keeps bleeding.

[Saint-loup]

Is it truly a month of downturn, or is this perception based on anecdotal ?

Until 2018 it's rather a red month indeed but before this year it use to be a green months during several years in a row, so on the overall we can't conclude easily IMO. But if we just look at the 6 last years we can expect a negative month indeed. And since the BTC ETF spot hype has ended along with the halving one, I think people will start to look for other investments or will need(or will just want) to take the profits they've made thnaks to the past bull run. So for me it will be a red month in the end.

[stompix]

~

I agree with your opinion - but how can we forget everything considering that there are still many people who really use the past as a benchmark in predicting the future?

Simple, you stop trying to predict the future based on past events and understand the difference between things like stocks that can only float this much, that have a basis on demand and performance of a company, and Bitcoin that started from scratch and is a different league altogether! If we go only with TA that for a century has been dedicated to classical assets on things that is completely different and a first in history is a bullet poof ay to be more wrong and right.

Also, as I kept saying for two years, history has a habit of pushing completely new things, the covid crisis showed us all how all models flopped when oil went into negative, it was one funny sight at that moment as indicators were running errors because of that.

As far as I know - the current optimism of holder and investor is because they have learned from past history, but it is perhaps somewhat realistic that now that pattern has been broken. The same pattern may or may not be repeated at all - but there are many other factors that support the same pattern repeating itself considering that we are pass the second month after the halving ^{[third month on going].} High flows in Spot ETF are likely to be expected throughout the year - but lower interest rates are certainly hopes.

But you see, again those patterns you mentioned are things that were not experienced before, we anticipate ETH inflows but we have no data on how inflows work long-term, we have no data on how Bitcoin works on lowered interest rates, just as we had no idea on how it did on rising ones.

I'm not saying we're not going to see a price rise, I'm actually betting on having one but at the same time I won't say we're going to experience this because charts show it will.

[STT]

My evaluation for June thus far is a definite decline is in progress, thats not to say it has to continue but going on the trend so far seems to give reason for caution and closer inspection.    We are above the 50 day average but only just and BTC is trying to close below that measure a few times now, so Im waiting now to see if it that breach will occur. 

Important note for moving averages is they are not support they are only indicators or representation of volume as inertia roughly for that medium time frame.  So people will buy at the 50ma but it should be taken as momentary not actual volume support like certain areas can be built up with.

[sunsilk]

We're already halfway through this month and based on the images given, it's true that there's something reliance on the history for every year of this month.

Well, holders are not gonna mind that much and we're going to keep on holding this time. And use that discouragement that we're not yet on the peak and everyone still have got time to accumulate for more.

So, use this downtime of the market and we're looking at it right at $66k.

Well, if bitcoin price consistently drop in the next few days, I would admit then that we are now at a month of downturn but that does not mean that it’s going to be bloody for the rest of the year. Personally, btc price at the moment is never really that low, it’s still $60k above so there’s always a lot of chances that it will continue to cross $70k and above, until we’ll head into its newest all time high for this year.

We will just take it that this entire month of June is really always as it is even for the past years. The month of June is likely always the reddish month of the year.

However, whatever it is, hodling is the best option. We can’t dare to sell our coins while seeing its value plummeting, most likely we need to hold it more and be more patient not to be bothered by the sudden price downturn.

We're not worried at all for this month. Holders won't be moved, we've been holding for years and just because this month is quite slow, we're going to be moved? nah.

We're already half of this month and the best is yet to come. So for the holders, newbies and everyone, no need to panic and just wait for the upcoming months.

[Helena Yu]

yeah people belief too much on some random sayings and the previous year chart shows that may or june is the month of downtrend doesn't mean it will happen when overall market greet index is at high and also we are at bullish. so that is anecdotal at best.
currently there's downturn because we've reached $73k not too long ago it does make sense for market to go down a little but there are many speculators out there saying that if bitcoin somehow cross $72k it will means another big rally coming for us which you shouldn't never take it as a financial advice but quite optimistic speculation coming from people probably gonna be self fulfilling prophecy.

Most people are trying to timing the market, instead of buy and forget.

The ATH in the two previous halving reached in Q4, but this halving the ATH hit in Q1.

May in the two previous halving are in red, but this halving the market in May is green.

Now, people speculated Q3 is the best time to buy Bitcoin since the two previous halving Q2 correction happened.

What if I speculate Bitcoin will reach the peak in Q3, then Q4 and next year we will see bear season...

[MiF]

Is it truly a month of downturn, or is this perception based on anecdotal ?

I think down trend can happen every time, and it coincidentally happen in june that is why most of us think that june is a month of downturn, but if we look at the price history there are also a down trend on some other months not only in June so i think it is just a coincidence not every month of june has a downtrend.

[shinratensei_]

It certainly seems that may be the case presently doesn’t it. There seems to be insufficient buying interest to sustain any price above $70,000. We’re now at $65,000 & I’m not confident that $60,000 is guaranteed support either. I am reading lots about miners selling which could be true because Spot ETFs are doing well & we are after the halving now so price should go up soon. We need to see a bottom formed quickly though, it just keeps bleeding.

miners selling doesn't really mean anything other than maybe they are just selling to cover operational costs, some news i've read earlier saying that some miner do exactly that for the sake of keeping their bitcoin possession not because they want to dump the market because as you know running mining farm like that i expect requires millions of dollars a year just for the cost of electricity alone so thats understandable doesn't really mean its bearish season starting.
anyway the interest does still lacking but BTC ETF inflow as well as the trading volume also still quite high in my opinion, the thing about sufficient buying interest is just psychological in my opinion, had bitcoin reached $100k earlier thisy ear and dumps to $90k, people would think current price which is floating around $60k as rather cheap, its just matter of the market greed.

i'm just expecting that there may be new narrative going after the approval of ETF, one that could really carry the entire market to another level of bitcoin price probably around $100k, probably with even more ETF approval coming from another big countries.

[bitgolden]

Hedge funds are just building short positions on futures. It’s an understandable way to make income. At some point it will become a positive instead of downward pressure on the market. I think the downside pressure will likely continue through October, but I expect November to be the kickoff to the next bubble.

I would consider that they are doing it because they think that June (or summer) will just be not that great since people are spending money on mojitos and beach clubs, and not buying more. They will turn that around when September comes, they always do.

Because people ended up coming back, will put their money back into it, and get ready for another summer for a while. This is one of the reasons why we usually go up during Q4, and I think they will do that. Just because they are shorting doesn't mean we will go down on the summer, I am just trying to see from their point and I think it will be quite good and I think they will definitely end up with something good one way or another, which is why I think we should respect their decision.

[Lanatsa]

Hedge funds are just building short positions on futures. It’s an understandable way to make income. At some point it will become a positive instead of downward pressure on the market. I think the downside pressure will likely continue through October, but I expect November to be the kickoff to the next bubble.

I would consider that they are doing it because they think that June (or summer) will just be not that great since people are spending money on mojitos and beach clubs, and not buying more. They will turn that around when September comes, they always do.

Because people ended up coming back, will put their money back into it, and get ready for another summer for a while. This is one of the reasons why we usually go up during Q4, and I think they will do that. Just because they are shorting doesn't mean we will go down on the summer, I am just trying to see from their point and I think it will be quite good and I think they will definitely end up with something good one way or another, which is why I think we should respect their decision.

Sentiments such as this could really be that precise or not but basing up into those possible actions that investors would really be doing then we could really be able to assume but if we do really tend to look into
previous years conditions whereas Q4 didnt really have that much of a movement or simply it didnt really get in line with the sentiment that mentioned above that Q4 would really be indeed an increasing momentum or will really be the start of the bubble but since we are on this year which halving event happened already then it would really be that somewhat safe to say that we would really be breaking new higher highs
until the bull run even but the main question on this one is on WHEN? Downturn or not, then there's no way on knowing on what it would really be because movement could really be that totally opposite on what we do have experienced on the past years on which there would really be no assurance that it would really be just that the same. So back up plans will really be always needed just in case that there would really be
those rejections or even just that having that sideways movement of the price in the market.

[$weetne$$]

The market is highly volatile so if sometimes the market is not in a good condition then it does not mean that the market is going to collapse forever but sometimes there will be a pump and sometimes there will be a dump but one mistake which newbies are often doing is that they get afraid of market dumps and suddenly change their mind so they sell with loss.

Singling out just one month to determine if you are going to be making profit is not a good way of investing or looking at the market because what matters at the end of the day is if you made profits or not when you are at the end of your investment and not if you made profits in this month or not. Different months always come with a different market reaction each year because the market is growing and can not have the same feedback every month. June could be a good month for profit in Bitcoin last year but this year might be different and that should be fine because what matters is the end feedback of your investments. The market is experiencing a correction at the moment but it should not be seen as a reason to be panicking but an opportunity to be buying.

[AnonBitCoiner]

No one can say whether it is a bearish month or not predicting the future of the crypto market is difficult. Sometimes it is seen that the crypto market goes up through the dumping. This is the best time to hold the coins if they are dumping. If the movement of the market can be held by extremely unstable hold, the currencies can go up in the interval of months and days.

Bearish and bullish seasons are not predicted then when they will start and when they will end even though one cannot predict the coming hour that what will happen in that. Currently the market has dropped a little bit which means that after this drop there is a hope that we will see a rise and if someone is astonished about the current situation then there is no need for it but one thing is needed here which is to make investment now and hold it longer or up to a target value.

The number of buyers will surely increase so if buyers make more purchases of Bitcoin and hold it longer without selling it then the dump will not be so deep and very easily it will turn greener so I think after a correction the market will again attain a huge price due to huge demand for Bitcoin.

[dezoel]

Is it truly a month of downturn, or is this perception based on anecdotal ?

I think down trend can happen every time, and it coincidentally happen in june that is why most of us think that june is a month of downturn, but if we look at the price history there are also a down trend on some other months not only in June so i think it is just a coincidence not every month of june has a downtrend.

Not every time but from time to time only. Both words might look the same but I think the other is not very frequent, and that is how I can describe or see this market, based on my activity here. If people can see it either of them, then they won't feel that it is coincident anymore because it was only normal.

I think in last days or weeks in the same month of June, there are increases that happened in this market, so I won't say that it is a downtrend month but the month is not yet finished, so it's also hard for me to say by now that it is a good and uptrend month, or even a normal month. Let us only see what this month has in store for us. Whatever it is, I'm sure that a good user can utilize it very well.

[letteredhub]

Is it truly a month of downturn, or is this perception based on anecdotal ?

We are in the middle of June right now and the price hasn't stopped making lows, so maybe you could be correct that this month of June is assumably a downturn month and what we should rather see from it should be an opportunity to buy the dip as the price gets more down which am convinced won't go below 61k$ before it starts pull back high anytime soon. No need to get scared about the downturn, it's an opportunity to buy buy and buy more as one can.

[stomachgrowls]

No one can say whether it is a bearish month or not predicting the future of the crypto market is difficult. Sometimes it is seen that the crypto market goes up through the dumping. This is the best time to hold the coins if they are dumping. If the movement of the market can be held by extremely unstable hold, the currencies can go up in the interval of months and days.

Bearish and bullish seasons are not predicted then when they will start and when they will end even though one cannot predict the coming hour that what will happen in that. Currently the market has dropped a little bit which means that after this drop there is a hope that we will see a rise and if someone is astonished about the current situation then there is no need for it but one thing is needed here which is to make investment now and hold it longer or up to a target value.

The number of buyers will surely increase so if buyers make more purchases of Bitcoin and hold it longer without selling it then the dump will not be so deep and very easily it will turn greener so I think after a correction the market will again attain a huge price due to huge demand for Bitcoin.

This is something that you should really be baring up into your mind on which you should really be that expecting that when it comes to price movement then this market would really be just only having two possible ways or path that could be able to take on which it would really be neither going down or up and this is something that you should really be getting that prepared into. Downturn or not then you should be that prepared on whatever the actions you would really be taking specially into those people who are really that making some short trades on which they would really be that keen when it comes to positioning.

If you are really just that new into this market then you would really be definitely get shocked ito the moment that you are really that expecting for positive results but ending up on
having that downtrurn event into this market on which we do know that it is really just thata typical movement but since you are expecting something positive then
you would really be that definitely having that kind of disappointment.