Cryptocurrency market analysis with a focus on BTC, ETH, SOL, and other altcoins

[dinotrader777]

BTC Higher Time Frame (HTF) Analysis
  - Current bullish outlook despite bearish propaganda.
  - Emphasis on a macro range of 59k-73k and a micro range of 66k-71k.
  - Importance of not cherry-picking data points.

BTC Lower Time Frame (LTF) Analysis
  - Long bias at 68.8k, targeting previous highs rather than new highs.

ETH Analysis
  - Weekly SFP not valid; focus on holding above 3500 to remain bullish.
  - Potential LTF setup discussed with flexible invalidation points.

SOL Analysis
  - Interest around 153, despite higher time frame bearishness.
  - Positive outlook on recent price action sweeping the origin of a pump.

PEPE Analysis
  - Discussion on range lows and highs; recommendation to take profits mid-range.

WIF Analysis
  - Holding 2.60 region is crucial; importance of stabilizing after volatility.

BONK Analysis
  - Looks decent with specific price levels for bidding under previous lows.

General BTC Sentiment
  - Acknowledgement of bearish appearance but finding opportunities in scary setups.

Execution Strategy
  - Close out 25-50% of position on SFP in lower time frames even if entered on higher time frames.
  - Emphasis on execution quality and risk management.

Other Coins Analysis
  ONDO: Recommended bidding around 1.27-1.28.
  TON: Good buy around 7.12-7.00.
  TIA: Advised to avoid due to poor performance.
  BNB: Should bounce at current levels; similar outlook for SOL.
  FLOKI: Weak chart after losing prior structure.
  INJ: Potential good setup forming.

[dinotrader777]

Crypto Market Update16/06/24


Bitcoin's Current Position

    Bitcoin is at a crucial point that will dictate its short-term direction and influence altcoins.
    A breakout from the multi-month consolidation phase is expected.

Bitcoin's Impact on Altcoins

    Altcoins that have performed well recently may slow down.
    Underperforming altcoins may gain momentum as Bitcoin breaks out.

Technical Analysis and Predictions

    The $60K mark is a significant line of validation.
    Since March 2024, Bitcoin has been in a reaccumulation phase.
    A smaller range within this phase shows deviations and reclaims, indicating potential for a larger move.
    An impulsive move is expected, potentially driving Bitcoin to $100K or higher.

Future Projections

    The initial impulsive move may be followed by a series of increasingly aggressive upward movements.
    The first leg of the move could be around $10K, leading to subsequent legs pushing Bitcoin up to $120K.
    A parabolic advance and a blow-off top are anticipated, similar to the pattern seen in 2017.

Timeframes and Market Structure

    October is estimated as a potential peak period for Bitcoin.
    Corrections and subsequent impulses are expected to speed up.
    The $60K level remains a crucial support, with downside potential limited.

Short-term Movements

    Predictions for a breakout within 7 to 10 days.
    Lower time frame impulses are monitored to indicate the end of the current correction and the start of the next major move.

Risk Management and Trading Strategy

    Importance of managing risk, especially when trading options.
    Advice against inexperienced traders dabbling in options due to high risks.
    Strategies for identifying lower time frame impulses to anticipate market reversals.

Altcoins Performance Relative to Bitcoin

    Altcoins that have performed well over the past 3 to 6 months may experience a slowdown if Bitcoin breaks out from its current consolidation phase.
    Conversely, altcoins that have not been performing well might gain momentum as Bitcoin makes its move.

Conclusion

    Bitcoin is poised for significant growth, but market conditions must be closely monitored.
    Maintaining above $60K is critical for the bullish outlook.
    The market is expected to experience substantial movements, leading to potential highs of over $100K.

[dinotrader777]

BTC Trend Overview
Key Observations:
H4 Trend Shift: BTC has flipped its H4 trend and rapidly approached the H4 100 MA gap fill.
Critical Levels:
H4 100 MA: Must be broken to target the H4 200 EMA at 64.7k.
Support Level: Must hold the H4 trend and H1 200 EMA if retested at 61.5-62.0k.
Higher Targets: Achieving these conditions sets up a potential retest of the H4 200 EMA and D1 trend.
Holding key support levels is crucial to maintain bullish momentum. The market's ability to avoid dipping to 58-60k is seen as a positive sign for bulls.

Focus for Today:
H4 100 MA: Break and hold this level.
H4 200 EMA: Target if the H4 100 MA is broken.
Support Retests: Ensure the H4 trend holds if retested.
Early-week movements can be tricky, often requiring confirmation post-NYO (New York Open).

ETH Analysis
Key Observations:
H4 100 MA: Needs to flip to support.
H4 200 EMA: Must break this level to confirm a bullish trend.
Similar to BTC, ETH must hold critical support levels to maintain its upward trajectory.

General Market Insights
Trend Reclaims and Gap Fills: Classic strategies involve reclaiming trends and filling gaps, which have been discussed extensively in recent analysis.
Pre-NYO Moves: Pre-Monday NYO moves can be unreliable, so it's important to see how the market settles.

Focus Areas:
H4 100 MA: A critical level for both BTC and ETH.
H4 Trend Support: Holding this level is vital for a bullish outlook.
Market Behavior: Monitor how SPX behavior impacts BTC, as it often serves as an indicator for broader market strength.

Altcoin Watchlist
Weakness: AI coins like FET and WLD, and TIA show notable weakness.
Strength: WIF shows potential for an H4 200 EMA retest, with ENS also standing out.

Trading Strategies:
Above H4 Trend: Potential scalp long targeting H4 100 MA & H4 200 EMA.
Below H4 Trend: Consider swing shorts using D1 trend breaks as invalidation.
Bounce Plays: Focus on D1 downtrend retests as primary targets.

Market Sentiment
Despite BTC's bounce into the D1 13 EMA and breaking the H4 downtrend, many altcoins remain lethargic. It's still early in the week, so trends may still emerge. Keeping an eye on key levels and market behavior will be crucial in navigating the current landscape.

[justdimin]

General BTC Sentiment
  - Acknowledgement of bearish appearance but finding opportunities in scary setups.

Execution Strategy
  - Close out 25-50% of position on SFP in lower time frames even if entered on higher time frames.
  - Emphasis on execution quality and risk management.

You are welcome to provide all long term, short term and general sentiment of bitcoin market but I feel like other markets are not preferred by this community as far as what I have observed. Because, what you are discussing today may not be the same coins/token in one year of time. In altcoin discussion and speculation boards, we can see such change overs all the times. I mean people were crazy on lite, ripple and doge but these are at the verge of delisting or at least being not attractive to traders and investors. So, my suggestion would be sticking around BTC and if you need another one means then you may include, ETH.

Another thing I am concerned is, what are strategies that you are using for your all kind of analysis. I mean, for long term and short term, we cannot rely on same strategy and similarly all altcoins may not obey same strategy. If you are ready, kindly share your technical part as well here which may help and double check your analysis by other traders here.

[dinotrader777]

SPX (S&P 500 Index):
In my previous update, I anticipated a longer trading range for SPX, but it broke out to a new high much sooner than expected. Last week, we were at the range low, and I advised against shorting SPX at that time. Although I didn't foresee such a quick rise, the range high became a support level, invalidating my initial expectation.
Currently, SPX has lost its daily upward trend for the first time in a while, and the trend has turned downward. Next week will be crucial to see if SPX can reclaim its daily trend or if it will face resistance. Right now, it's holding at the 4-hour EMA200, and we should watch for a potential bounce, especially around the 5600 level in the next two weeks.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qcRsDGoC/

BTC (Bitcoin):
Last time, I predicted a possible range of 40-52k for BTC, and it slightly missed that target. We managed to enter a long position during a 1-hour compression last week. I prefer focusing on lower timeframe entries, so the macro outlook for BTC isn't as critical. We're now looking at whether BTC will fail between the current level and 72k again or break through it, potentially leading to a significant rally.
The daily compression isn't tight yet, so a scenario like this chart link is possible. The next higher low on a higher timeframe (HTF) could be a great buying opportunity. If BTC breaks 72k, the potential for opportunities will be vast, even without the perfect entry.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EOM4twUV/

ETH (Ethereum):
With BTC performing well, we're interested in how ETH can outperform BTC, focusing on the ETH/BTC pair. ETH/BTC is currently at a critical support level with a large gap below. Despite underperforming in the recent rally, ETH hasn't seen the severe retracements of the past. Now would be an excellent time for ETH to show strength, sitting on a horizontal level above a big gap and the daily MA100 ascending.
If the daily compression works out, the next significant resistance is at 0.605, which is 16% higher. If BTC pumps 10-15% and ETH outperforms by 16%, it would be substantial. It's a critical level to defend, and it might be a good time to rotate from BTC to ETH, although recent attempts haven't been very successful.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/336twMyI/

Gold:
Gold is still consolidating, making higher highs. After four months of consolidation, a big move is expected. While I'm bullish, I don't rule out a sudden drop, similar to the one before the Gaza conflict in September 2023. If such a drop happens, targeting around 2200 (near the daily EMA200) would be an excellent entry point. Overall, I'm very bullish but cautious of potential market tricks.

TOTAL2 (Total Market Cap Excluding Bitcoin):
We've stayed within the highlighted range. If ETH/BTC breaks out as mentioned earlier, the target would be around $1.7 trillion.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3im3zy53/

TOTAL3 (Total Market Cap Excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum):
Despite the altcoin meltdown, TOTAL3 filled a gap and bounced back with significant momentum, aided by strong performances from Solana and meme coins. It looks even more bullish than BTC or TOTAL2, despite a series of lower lows and highs.

DXY:Squiggly line had started well, and that first correct leg was good confluence for being bearish/flat during the altcoin meltdown and now buying the dip too early on BTC. Remember when people started to buy the dip at 66k in June? Many of them are the people who puked at the lows (if only it was only Germany!) averaging down too early can be fatal, we use a trend based system so buying in a downtrend is a big no, sure we never catch the pico bottom (went long at 57k, and yet this is still much better than people averaging down from 66k mid-June). So yeah while DXY ended up ranging, that first DXY pump I called ended up extremely useful. We're back to the mid-range, but still over 3D EMA200, and that rounded bottom shape isn't invalidated yet. https://www.tradingview.com/x/yTkYhPZ0/ But I'd say time for a move soon. For once I find EURUSD a bit cleaner so I'll include that too - I know what it looks like, bearish at the lows and bullish at the top. But nah not really the level where I mark as BELOW is giga bearish is a great buy if we get it. We're wanna be worried if we lose it. The main point with these two levels to break or hold is that I don't think the current range in-between is for trading. Unless we get a clean bullish setup between 1.075 and 1.078 like the squiggly within the range I think that would be a good long too.

DXY (US Dollar Index):
The initial upward move in DXY was helpful for predicting the altcoin meltdown and the subsequent BTC dip buying. We're back to mid-range, but still above the 3D EMA200, and the rounded bottom shape isn't invalidated. A move is expected soon.

For EUR/USD, it appears cleaner than DXY. While the range between 1.075 and 1.078 isn't ideal for trading, a bullish setup within this range could be a good long opportunity.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/s1o9HnHH/

Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate these critical levels and market movements.

[dinotrader777]

Here's what you need to know for the week:

Key Market Update:
Over the past weeks, we’ve been accurately predicting Bitcoin’s movements, including the recent price pump after the 50bps announcement. Now, the big question is whether Bitcoin will break through the current resistance at $64k. It’s not a matter of if, but when.

What’s Next:

    The $64k resistance level is important. Once we get a daily close above it, the next target will be $68k-$70k.
    If Bitcoin drops, look for a strong support zone between $60k and $61k. There’s a lot of liquidity here, and it could offer a good entry point for a long position.

My Plan:

    If the price dips to $60k-$61k, I’ll add to my long position (I already have a long from $53k).
    Once $64k is broken, expect a quick move towards $68k.

This week may bring more volatility, especially with the US GDP numbers coming out and Jerome Powell speaking on Thursday.

Summary:
Focus on $64k as resistance and $60k-$61k as a possible support for new longs. My overall expectation is an upward move towards $68k-$70k soon.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Everyone has their own strategy and market price analysis in which they take on as their entry points, we may not have to agree the same way with what others are giving because we know what we want and when to strike in for an investment in any of the mentioned cryptocurrencies, as for me, i dont think these are perfect enough foe me, because i will have to go more dip if am to invest knowing the current and recent market analysis.