Today (05/07) more than 3x of the BTC were sold than MtGox will pay out in July

[d5000]

So you are panicking due to MtGox's payments in July? With 140.000 BTC flooding the market, driving the price of Bitcoin to 0, or just close to that?

Well, think again.



Today the Bitcoin trading volume was around 45 billion. As you can see here in the historical data, in most of the past days the Bitcoin trade volume was around 20-30 billion on weekdays and 10-15 billion on weekends (ignore the volume today, it's incomplete), with one exception being June 19 with 41 billion.

We can thus safely assume that 10 to 15 billion more Bitcoins were traded today than on a "normal" day of the week.

Now, were these coins bought or sold? Well, the price is telling us that the vast majority were sell orders.

The 140,000 GoxBTC are currently (at ~$60.000) worth slightly less than 9 billion.

This means that today the panicking Bitcoin holders sold more coins than all the Goxcoins that will be sold in July.

Draw your own conclusions


07-05-24: Edited title. Again: MtGox hasn't paid out a single Bitcoin, and panicking weak hands sold about 400.000 BTC this time  (Explanation in other post.)

[Mr.right85]

Today the Bitcoin trading volume was around 45 billion. As you can see here in the historical data, in most of the past days the Bitcoin trade volume was around 20-30 billion on weekdays and 10-15 billion on weekends (ignore the volume today, it's incomplete), with one exception being June 19 with 41 billion.

We can thus safely assume that 10 to 15 billion more Bitcoins were traded today than on a "normal" day of the week.

Some strategies have been known to work in these times where there are expectations on the market. The halving is just a couple of weeks behind us and many including myself are still in expectation of the bullrun to kick in and as such, a lot of manipulations could be done to push weak hands to panic sell so that, a lot of others could accumulate. This could obviously be some of that situation where, the market is been flooded with coins to dump it, just to buy back from a low and have it pump in no time.

It would be a pity for those that would be selling at this time due to the depleting price of Bitcoin on the market. I think this could be the fall before the rise as, I never thought we would find price within the $60k zone no more but price at the moment is just a little bit below $60k.

[buwaytress]

Further reminders to anyone who still thinks a single entity selloff makes a lasting impact. Gox panic is old, yet it still makes people worry. MicroStrategy panic probably still has the same psychological effect but equally impermanent market rub, if any.

Move along now.

[Davidvictorson]

I am thinking right now that the price may go down since traders will believe that all the bitcoins Mt.Gox plan to release in July will be sold on centralized exchanges, and that will make them to short the market irrespective of what the current holders of those bitcoins decide to do. Is there anyone who have had this thought crossed their minds too?

[Familian]

Can't say much but it should be a simple maths to digest in, that a single entity in the person of Mt Gox can't bring a strong fall against the resilience of bitcoin long term hodlers.  Bitcoin is too large for a one single fellow to shake the chain. Maybe small weak hands may wither learning about what July holds about the Mt Gox BTCsale but it's all a distraction towards the bull run.

[SmartGold01]

Sometimes it's pittiable to see that there are people who still don't understand the market derivation and how it's being controlled over the time and of course we know that it's not stable as expected but we should think that it's a natural thing that occurrs in the market where price aren't always stable instead some form of news could hit the market were the minor trader don't mind selling off their holdings to take profits and secure their asset from draining below what they already had at currently given more strength to the whales who are only looking for smallest opportunity to accumulate more bitcoin to their portfolios.

[Kemarit]

I am thinking right now that the price may go down since traders will believe that all the bitcoins Mt.Gox plan to release in July will be sold on centralized exchanges, and that will make them to short the market irrespective of what the current holders of those bitcoins decide to do. Is there anyone who have had this thought crossed their minds too?

And it just shows the that ghost of Mt. Gox is still haunting us after so many years. But still even if everyone sold, it might not put a dent on the market as others might have suggested. We should also cast doubts that in one day everyone is going to sell.

I think those who are going to received their Bitcoin might be thinking of not just selling just for the sake of taking the money. I mean they have been waiting, it's true, but what is to wait till next year when the price goes to 6 digits, which mean more profit for them so it doesn't make sense to dump it in July.

[DaveF]

The one thing that nobody talks about is how much of the MtGox stuff CAN'T be sold quickly.
Some people have died and it's in a trust and it has to go though the estate.
Some people owe money and it's going to their creditors after it goes through the courts.
And so on.

Some people are getting so little vs their 'real' holdings that it's not worth selling.

And so on.

-Dave

[STT]

Main point about Gox is there is no real shock effect, we know and have known for so long.  Its in the price already, Im more wary about news and negatives that are still to come.   Politics, economics, natural disasters anything at all can arrive today and we had no idea previously.

The price drew near to the 200 day average but did not touch.  In fact we improved on the May low so far and its bounced some.  The measure of strength comes from that quality in the bounce, repeated selling from there will have us touch the 200 day average.

  I expect now or at some point this year the 200 day average is where we determine strength.  As 200DMA is rising, its a point of interest repeated from here on until BTC can accelerate upwards properly or possibly fail and pass below when then proven weak.

[Greyhats]

My current tinfoil hat theory, is that all of this going on for the last weeks to instill fear into the mtgox coin owners so more sell when the time comes.

[bittraffic]

Is the MtGox coins distribution even true?
We've heard of this news many times but they were never really distributed. Same with cryptopia coins, where most of those who still have coins in there are not expecting them anymore. Even the FTX users may not even expect them anymore.

But if it's true this time though, I think it could really spark the panic and still sell their coins. Seem a human nature already to sell when there is a threat to the price.

[stompix]

Today the Bitcoin trading volume was around 45 billion. As you can see here in the historical data, in most of the past days the Bitcoin trade volume was around 20-30 billion on weekdays and 10-15 billion on weekends (ignore the volume today, it's incomplete), with one exception being June 19 with 41 billion.

We can thus safely assume that 10 to 15 billion more Bitcoins were traded today than on a "normal" day of the week.

So this means that even if everyone would see all their coins it would still not matter because that's just monthly volume? 

Volume is meaningless without market depth!
I always said that if I had 2 1l  bottles and I would pour 1litre of water from one to another relentlessly I would transfer 10,000 liters with ease (volume),  but it takes just 1 additional liter of water (the dump) dumped in the same bottle to overflow (market depth) and spill (yesterday's crash).

Oh, and btw if you think that 9 billion doesn't matter at this volume, doesn't this also imply we need some 100 billion to go up in a meaningful way?

[$weetne$$]

This means that today the panicking Bitcoin holders sold more coins than all the Goxcoins that will be sold in July.

Draw your own conclusions

I appreciate this thread because when I see the market panicking it confuses me if people do their research when they hear rumors or news to understand what is going to happen. When MtGox will payout in July, everybody is not going to sell, most people will be hodling because they know they can get more value if they hodl for Bitcoin to reach a new highest price for this market cycle. It is the fear in the traders that tanks the market and not the people that will receive the Bitcoin. Before the payout happens people will begin to speculate a dip without knowing that if everybody was hodling strong and buying, the payout in July would not have any impact on the market. The market has the volumes to make the sell pressure from the people that will be selling to not be noticed.

[noormcs5]

I am thinking right now that the price may go down since traders will believe that all the bitcoins Mt.Gox plan to release in July will be sold on centralized exchanges, and that will make them to short the market irrespective of what the current holders of those bitcoins decide to do. Is there anyone who have had this thought crossed their minds too?

First of all, all those MT Gox users must be following the market for so many years and they know that the bull market season is very near and hence we expect that not everyone will try to sell as soon as they get those bitcoins.
Secondly, there are so many investors and buyers in the market that they will absorb this selling pressure and the market may not dump as much as everyone is expecting.

Just like sell the news event, i think this time bitcoin will pump instead of dumping and surprises most of the people who have opened short positions in anticipation to this event.

[d5000]

Volume is meaningless without market depth!

A scientific analysis of market movements indeed should take into account market depth. But meaningful data about market depth evolution is difficult to obtain it seems (I have already searched and asked here for that, if you know a source a link is much appreciated).

So for a simple forum post I reccur sometimes to assumptions.   A day with 50% more volume than "normal" is probably caused by people adding massively sell or buy orders, influencing market depth in this process. Most of yesterday's movement (until I wrote that post) was downwards, so it was quite obvious that more sell orders were added than buy orders. And the value of all additional sell orders probably exceeded 9 billion if the volume was 15 billion more than "normal".

It is of course possible that the 15 billion additional orders were all wash trading, but it's highly unlikely.

Oh, and btw if you think that 9 billion doesn't matter at this volume, doesn't this also imply we need some 100 billion to go up in a meaningful way?

9 billion does matter, in my opinion (based on the data on yesterday's dump, which was about 9% in the moment of its maximum panic) it would cause about a 5-7% dump of the price in a similar (sideways to slightly bearish) market situation ... if everything was sold 100% and the same day (highly unlikely). Of course, if more people panic while the coins are sold, the crash can be deeper. But the Goxcoins and BKAcoins alone would probably not be enough to cause a really deep crash (let's say 20% or so).

[coolcoinz]

Why do you think that people who sold yesterday were panicking due to Gox news? We knew Gox coins were being prepared since April when the coins were moving and there were some statements from the liquidators that they are in the final stage. People were even speculating when the price dropped a bit in April that it might be first wave of Gox coins already being sold.

IMO the reason for the drop was the FED meeting, because we started moving down since they said there will be only 1 cut later this year.
That started a slow process of long positions being liquidated and people who invested in ETFs in hope of making money on coming rate cuts pulling back.
I'm not amazed that Wall Street did a 180 degrees turn because most of these people want to make money ASAP and Nvidia went up 15% in the last month while bitcoin moved by less than 5% (69k-72k) in the same time. So they said fuk it, stocks are doing better lets move money elsewhere.

Gox coins aren't going to flood the market. If you think that everything that Gox gives back to people will be dumped, think again. Most of these people had years to sell their claims and did nothing, patiently waited for the money to be returned to them, so many of these people are bitcoin believers. They thought that it would go up, so they wanted the real thing and were willing to wait a few years for it.
If 50% of them sell I'm going to be surprised.

[Franctoshi]

Today the Bitcoin trading volume was around 45 billion. As you can see here in the historical data, in most of the past days the Bitcoin trade volume was around 20-30 billion on weekdays and 10-15 billion on weekends (ignore the volume today, it's incomplete), with one exception being June 19 with 41 billion.

We can thus safely assume that 10 to 15 billion more Bitcoins were traded today than on a "normal" day of the week.

Some strategies have been known to work in these times where there are expectations on the market. The halving is just a couple of weeks behind us and many including myself are still in expectation of the bullrun to kick in and as such, a lot of manipulations could be done to push weak hands to panic sell so that, a lot of others could accumulate. This could obviously be some of that situation where, the market is been flooded with coins to dump it, just to buy back from a low and have it pump in no time.

It would be a pity for those that would be selling at this time due to the depleting price of Bitcoin on the market. I think this could be the fall before the rise as, I never thought we would find price within the $60k zone no more but price at the moment is just a little bit below $60k.

Majority of people will perceive this as if the Bull market is over if we go further below $58k, we are in a period of time where experience is differciated from knowledge, only people that has experienced from the past Bull market cycles would understand the game beacausec there's usually the last panic sell before the main event and which I believe that this is likely going to be the last dip and the last chance we would have to buy Bitcoin in such a cheaper price.

[Mr.right85]

Majority of people will perceive this as if the Bull market is over if we go further below $58k, we are in a period of time where experience is differciated from knowledge, only people that has experienced from the past Bull market cycles would understand the game beacausec there's usually the last panic sell before the main event and which I believe that this is likely going to be the last dip and the last chance we would have to buy Bitcoin in such a cheaper price.

I agree with you on this though, not having any experience at all makes it had for you to persist and in times like this, you either bank on other person’s experience or take comfort in historical data to hold on to your precious Bitcoins. Just yesterday it was reading numbers that weren’t promising and now, it’s pumping a little bit, showing that the correction that was been done on the market is past and we could be heading right back towards an uptrend. I never expected it to go below $58k and am proud to see the correction been reversed.

[Felicity_Tide]

Majority of people will perceive this as if the Bull market is over if we go further below $58k, we are in a period of time where experience is differciated from knowledge, only people that has experienced from the past Bull market cycles would understand the game beacausec there's usually the last panic sell before the main event and which I believe that this is likely going to be the last dip and the last chance we would have to buy Bitcoin in such a cheaper price.

I agree with you on this though, not having any experience at all makes it had for you to persist and in times like this, you either bank on other person’s experience or take comfort in historical data to hold on to your precious Bitcoins. Just yesterday it was reading numbers that weren’t promising and now, it’s pumping a little bit, showing that the correction that was been done on the market is past and we could be heading right back towards an uptrend. I never expected it to go below $58k and am proud to see the correction been reversed.

You are on point. The corrections has been neutralized from what I see and the price gradually moving upward. I am quite sure that in the past few hours, so many people who are new to the market were predicting and maybe even selling due to fear that it might drop far below $58K. Let's see what happens in the next few hours and hope it climbs further.

[EarnOnVictor]

-snip-
Draw your own conclusions

I am not surprised, I've always known that people often hype the market situation than it is, but at the same time, the reason for the current selling is more than any single scope. If solely I should draw the conclusion from what you explained, it is just something that is insignificant. Let's assume that a $9B would be moved out of Bitcoin, and so? Many more volumes are often moved in and out in many days of ordinary trading activities, so this can't hurt anything ordinarily. But still, the market does not view everything the way you do at times, this is why, at times, a mere rumour could move the market significantly, while true news with even more devastating data may move it less, the market is funny.

This is where market psychology comes into play and it works in relation to the market sentiments. Now, the current market sentiment is extremely bearish, so the implication is that the news that would have had an impact of $9B may end up having an impact of over $45B or more. This is the way the market works.

It is just like the vehicle in a sloppy position, only a finger push could make it move so much, something that can't ordinarily happen if it was positioned differently. I hope you under this!