Gloom Boom Doom thread

[STT]

I was looking for where can I put my deepest darkest outlook predictions and Iam really not seeing enough negative threads.  Contradictory as that is, not enough negative threads is bad for the price I figure.  So heres a gargoyle of a thread to state the worst.


I was just going to post the very obvious giant M formation we have on the price action now.  On weekly bars we spun around in circles so long we are in danger of hitting something and hurting ourselves, perhaps falling down.



https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doubletop.asp

Double top should not be called before completion which is below the middle of pattern but we are very close and its only useful as a heads up for future price action ahead of time.


As I remember it if we do complete this twin peaks storyline for BTC, it falls again by the depth of the M which is about 10k.    So if I say BTC is threatening to go back to early Jan peak pricing you get the idea, it might upset a few.  

I havent read this elsewhere but it seems possible should we continue down.  Its not a for certain thing just some TA.   Its M for murder, double top type action not unfamiliar to most surely.
*apologies to M.Faber

[BITCOIN4X]

The double top you're worried about may be an important indicator of future market action, but I don't expect FUD to worsen the situation to allow a deep decline. The panic of traders and investors will clearly worsen the situation which will then result in a higher selling action. Selling pressure may also be triggered by mtgox's coin distribution plans, so it is true that right now the holders' mentality is being tested.

[stompix]

Its not a for certain thing just some TA.   Its M for murder, double top type action not unfamiliar to most surely.

It actually stands for McDonald's, which will receive a ton of applications if we go in the same bearish pattern back in 2021...
If I remember correctly if we don't touch the lowest point we're safe so the gloom doom etc should only strat at 56.5k, I will say we're pretty comfortable right now unless someone decides to dump a few tens of thousands of coins.
One rate cut this July and we're safe!

[jaberwock]

Its not a for certain thing just some TA.   Its M for murder, double top type action not unfamiliar to most surely.

It actually stands for McDonald's, which will receive a ton of applications if we go in the same bearish pattern back in 2021...
If I remember correctly if we don't touch the lowest point we're safe so the gloom doom etc should only strat at 56.5k, I will say we're pretty comfortable right now unless someone decides to dump a few tens of thousands of coins.
One rate cut this July and we're safe!

LoL that's a good one but if history repeats itself like on what we have on the year of 2021, then I won't panic just yet and sell because the latter stages of 2021 have also turned out as positive, which means we can also have a better year ender scenario in the current year of 2024.

There is no way to tell the lowest point right now but we can only tell it once we end the year. The safety of us will only depend on us as well. Even if the BTC price touched its lowest, I'm very confident that it can still recover, so we are safe if we will not panic and sell. It would be better if we can only stay positive and use that moment as a buying opportunity.

[STT]

The 2021 rebound really fooled me because it was higher yet it fell quite harshly.  I also sold bigger amounts in other assets at end of 2021 because the market overall seemed to be making a top.    That doesnt seem to be the case here, the M formation is still only signalling about an extra 10k being lost which is not an epic sized move.

The year average or 50 week average is about 50k or will soon be at that price.   I just see it as being in that orbit but just moving in that way would scare a few hence the weakness.  It would cause some to sell at that low when perhaps they should be buying.

  Thats why I often take these things as ironically bullish, a test is not such a great negative and this move would be more of a medium term consideration then a long term market top idea.


I did think right after posting this thread well its starting to prove me wrong but today is unfortunately confirming the idea.  We are literally in touch with the 200 day average, the most widely followed indicator allegedly so you have the wider market apprehensive perhaps.

58k is the area I'd watch now for resolution.  Its a fibonacci level about 78.6% of the old ATH or at least thats how I've placed it on the chart.   Its the same price as May start, we already did this so its a low and we've been here twice since March when we started going sideways.  Its the outer edges of the range and we'll have to observe what support is respected if any.

[stompix]

~

LoL that's a good one but if history repeats itself like on what we have on the year of 2021, then I won't panic just yet and sell because the latter stages of 2021 have also turned out as positive, which means we can also have a better year ender scenario in the current year of 2024.

Ok my bad, it's not as bad as ending up working at Mcdonald's since it might get inverted it's like Wendy's 

58k is the area I'd watch now for resolution.  Its a fibonacci level about 78.6% of the old ATH or at least thats how I've placed it on the chart.   Its the same price as May start, we already did this so its a low and we've been here twice since March when we started going sideways.  Its the outer edges of the range and we'll have to observe what support is respected if any.

The problem with Fibonacci is that normally between the two keypoints there is no fear of somebody dumping 200k coins.
Retracements happening naturally on a market can't be the basis of a sudden dump that can break through those percentages like cake
Rather than looking at traditional indicators for sideways movements right now I would only look at the order book evolutions, if indeed there is fear in the markets and the order is strained thin then everything is possible!

[STT]

Theres a bot on the main observer thread that constantly posts the order books as a picture or histogram.  It can confuse me slightly but any of the graphs are variable in their transparency or clarity.

How I'm reading this latest action is weakness, we did trade the 200 day average.   We are below that longer term measure and then we recovered some but only to touch the underside.  It does look bearish in continuation for now.   200 DMA is not resistance, its just looks for the moment.

 We are still 4000 above the recent low but there is the fear of losing that and making a lower low.  It is a gloomy outlook and I wont only look once but Im putting my worse outlooks here for now.  When we boom I'll stop doing so because that will just be back to normal we hope

Flip side is if we rally to end this week, be bullish.  That would be a solid performance, the ideal recovery to put the past action down as just a blip.

[uneng]

Tomorrow the tendency will be clearer, as a new week begins. Personally, I don't think the situation is so alarming. I risk saying that if Bitcoin had to fall deeper, it would have already happened when it touched 53,000$'s two days ago. What happened next was a nice recovery to 58,000$. Today the market is more bearish, but Bitcoin is still maintaining at 57,000$.

The intensity of the bearish psychological effect from previous days tend only to dimish, so it's good news for Bitcoin market. The signal I see is that speculators don't want Bitcoin price to fall too much, because once Bitcoin hit 53,900$, they immediately pumped it to almost 55,000$ in a matter of 1 hour!

If Bitcoin remains stable around 58,000$ until the end of this month, I will consider it positive progress already. The focus are the incoming summer months, the final months of the year, which must be pretty bullish, allowing us to reach a new ATH!

[philipma1957]

Nope btc going to $0.00 dump it all and exchange for gold.

How is that for doom and gloom.

Myself I continue to stack.

[STT]

Solar flare activity peaking at highs across decades is bearish for any modern electronics.  Yellowstone volcano and tsnumai potential etc.   always a negative out there but we got to take the daily positives that BTC continues to grow for many years now in users and utility.

   I remain bullish overall, the M formation appears to have been nullified.  A failed move leads to fast moves, we are quite fast up now.

   I will continue in my original take which is without negative threads on this board or similar its an unbalanced situation akin to everyone standing on one side of boat, instability can occur.   Can you see anyone being negative on the price, if the trade gets too hyper we'll get some reset of some kind.  However we just sold over most of June and it failed to deliver further movement beyond the wide range of this year.

[Marvell1]

   I will continue in my original take which is without negative threads on this board or similar its an unbalanced situation akin to everyone standing on one side of boat, instability can occur.   Can you see anyone being negative on the price, if the trade gets too hyper we'll get some reset of some kind.  However we just sold over most of June and it failed to deliver further movement beyond the wide range of this year.

Do you mean we need more pessimism spread in the markets, more fear, and worse, people stop thinking about a bull run scenario that won't come? Because wealth is not for the masses and the market prefers to go against the thoughts of the masses rather than satisfy the masses?

I also like that idea because I don't like Fomo and following the crowd. But you need to remember one thing everyone knows about history, everyone knows about the 4-year cycle, so making people pessimistic at this time is not easy. I think it is not necessary to push bitcoin prices to the lowest level as you said to scare many people, there are many other ways.

[buwaytress]

I've long held that I'm at my most comfortable when the general outlook is grim. And for some reason, I feel like we haven't had that in a really, really long time. Hard to expect it though. Everyone's waiting for that post-halving ATH that must surely happen despite the premature one we already enjoyed.

But if one allows to consider the early ATH as a portent of doom, then one considers that the cycle pattern is over as we know it, and the delay of the sharp crash that should have happened instead can only mean a much more painful fall when it does happen. That negative enough?

[STT]

Sounds nice and negative,  for speculators at least I feel we do best when everyone is fully gloomy.   Surprise is then to the upside, ironically awesome.

Im duty bound right now to not just mention but underline we have some great doom news which is:

☠ The Death Cross ☠

 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathcross.asp



Its perfectly simply the 50 day average crosses below the 200 day average.  Supposedly it indicates a wider negative and a trend of lower prices.   However this mostly happens when 200 day average is positive which it is, BTC 200 Daily Moving Average is rising every day and the shorter term is far less positive which is the case, we've drifted in BTC price since March.
   I do see higher chance of volatile pricing but beyond the skulls, Im not that negative on long term prospects just yet tbh.




https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/121114/what-difference-between-golden-cross-and-death-cross-pattern.asp

We held the opposite term, 'the golden cross' or 50 over 200 DMA from Oct '23 till just recently.

[cabron]

Monday Aug 5th the market dumped to $49k. This price might just be the bottom of this bear before going back up again. So that $49k resistance might just be tested in the coming weeks. And if this 49k resistance breaks, we're going down $38k to present an oversold RSI on the weekly chart which will reset the momentum.

This could be the most negative speculation, in my opinion. But if it bounces back up from $49k, that's when it's time to buy more.

[aoluain]

I've long held that I'm at my most comfortable when the general outlook is grim. And for some reason, I feel like we haven't had that in a really, really long time. Hard to expect it though. Everyone's waiting for that post-halving ATH that must surely happen despite the premature one we already enjoyed.

But if one allows to consider the early ATH as a portent of doom, then one considers that the cycle pattern is over as we know it, and the delay of the sharp crash that should have happened instead can only mean a much more painful fall when it does happen. That negative enough?

Yea thats why there isnt any Gloom, Boom, Doom on the forum, its supposed
to be a Bull market after the halving. And yea thats what people are waiting for.

I recon we are about 10 to 12 months too early to be calling Gloom and Doom,
before that we should have Boom!

[Kemarit]

I've long held that I'm at my most comfortable when the general outlook is grim. And for some reason, I feel like we haven't had that in a really, really long time. Hard to expect it though. Everyone's waiting for that post-halving ATH that must surely happen despite the premature one we already enjoyed.

But if one allows to consider the early ATH as a portent of doom, then one considers that the cycle pattern is over as we know it, and the delay of the sharp crash that should have happened instead can only mean a much more painful fall when it does happen. That negative enough?

Yea thats why there isnt any Gloom, Boom, Doom on the forum, its supposed
to be a Bull market after the halving. And yea thats what people are waiting for.

I recon we are about 10 to 12 months too early to be calling Gloom and Doom,
before that we should have Boom!

Yeah, we are in the bull run so we shouldn't have this kind of gloom and doom although we might see from time to time price going in a correction and then maybe we are nervous to see as we are expecting a bull run.

Probably in the next year, we might all forgotten about it as the price might go up to $100,000. And it could be that this correction is just a precursor of what will be the market is. So from some $50,000->$150,000. But just good to see this kind of thread, not that it's negative, but something to look and then connecting the dots looking backwards.

[Zigabel]

This is an in depth analysis and  prediction i see there, this looks suitable for those with investing mindset because i see some projections which has got fills for possibilities and chances as it gets along with the present, past and possible future, looking at the chart especially in recent time with the projection of the anticipated bull run i don't think the market will be going down as much as to match the early jan price which was around 35k as compared to the recent if it gets 10 k below it will still be nowhere close to what it was earlier at January but then it may avail an opportunity for an entry for both traders and  investors, whatever it is we are doin on the bitcoin chart and opportunities its expected to provide us with, then be careful and have at the back of your mind the anticipated bull run.

[STT]

I recon we are about 10 to 12 months too early to be calling Gloom and Doom,
before that we should have Boom!

Bitcoin moves forward like its powered by TNT not any normal fuel.   Thats my impression since 2017 when the Chinese government banned Bitcoin and the price fell massively, not the greatest surprise but the truly amazing thing was how it came back from that not just a little but explosively.   Upto the end of 2017 was more then a little surprising in all its twists and turns, a year earlier I had sold some BTC for well under 1k


We're nowhere near those prices and probably wont ever be again but I have to learn the lessons of just how volatile BTC can be, or I'll just repeat my mistakes but I hope not.

[buwaytress]

Yea thats why there isnt any Gloom, Boom, Doom on the forum, its supposed
to be a Bull market after the halving. And yea thats what people are waiting for.

I recon we are about 10 to 12 months too early to be calling Gloom and Doom,
before that we should have Boom!

Yeah, we are in the bull run so we shouldn't have this kind of gloom and doom although we might see from time to time price going in a correction and then maybe we are nervous to see as we are expecting a bull run.

Probably in the next year, we might all forgotten about it as the price might go up to $100,000. And it could be that this correction is just a precursor of what will be the market is. So from some $50,000->$150,000. But just good to see this kind of thread, not that it's negative, but something to look and then connecting the dots looking backwards.

Responding a month after my previous post but nothing's changed. No new "true" ATH. No crazy crash. Nothing of note. We're still barely half a year post halving, so nothing to suggest the up cycle's done and over with. We're still waiting around. Doom and gloom party way, way too early.

I'll be here

[tabas]

Yeah, we are in the bull run so we shouldn't have this kind of gloom and doom although we might see from time to time price going in a correction and then maybe we are nervous to see as we are expecting a bull run.

Probably in the next year, we might all forgotten about it as the price might go up to $100,000. And it could be that this correction is just a precursor of what will be the market is. So from some $50,000->$150,000. But just good to see this kind of thread, not that it's negative, but something to look and then connecting the dots looking backwards.

We are in, but the expectation of everyone has grown a lot when Bitcoin hits new ATH before the halving. The typical setup comes next after the halving and then, we'd see that brand new ATH but it has been different this time. I believe that we're not yet going to see the next new ATH until next year. Perhaps, if the market will have that huge dump once again and will be lower than the most recent one that we've got when we've seen $49k, I'm starting to see people now having thoughts and hopes that we'd see $20k - $30k. Well, that's them but for me, $49k was the kind of bottom needed for Bitcoin to surpass $71k. It's applicable that it's not going to be high forever but it won't be down too. As said, "everything that goes up must come down and vice versa". Still, I'm bullish until next year. The doom will come, I don't know and I don't even think that term is the right one to use if the market becomes bearish.