The Enigma of Crypto Trading: Weighing Experience Against Historical Trends

[Jegileman]

I have been trying to figure out something about cryptocurrency trading and the volatility in its entirety. I see traders entering trade after taking analysis of the market, considering the market pattern as it has been from past till now. Also putting into consideration other factors like order block, trendline etc. If the market movements is based on that and all traders are experienced, that means they will mostly be on the winning side of the market.

Now for those that have known how bitcoin have been transgressing since its inception and a possible bull run after the halving. If the traders are to put that into consideration, will they still need to do their normal analysis before entering the market or follow the past pattern of the market that it usually does when an event like that happens? It’s really confusing me and amazed to know how traders still get to be profitable amidst this factors.

[Lida93]

Yea, patterns repeat itself, trends never cease from repeating but the question the trader has to solve to be in profit is when does the trend has to actually repeat... Cause that's where your analysis comes in, you've to analyze to know not to take a wrong trading position because fake-outs are there to test your psychology. Simply put, market history do repeat but the challenge lies on the trader to get an accuracy of the timing either through technical or fundamental analysis of the market.

[EL MOHA]

I think I get what you’re driving at, that’s if the pattern of the coin actually takes precedent of the past that they don’t need to analyze and just go with the pattern of the past. I will say you are not that wrong to assume that history is will repeat it self but I say history doesn’t repeat it self always in the matter that concerns volatility. Yes in very long term history will repeat it self like your coins growing in profits oof held on to for long. But on a short basis like that of trading you made of most especially futures it fluctuates because of two things the demand and supply. The Chart might be in a certain pattern obeying past trend but a huge change can happen due to any of this factor.

Another strong factor that alters patterns is the fundamental analysis of that coin. Take a look at bitcoin, in the pa a new all time high only comes when the halving must have occurred, now forward to this year, we had a new ATH right before the halving period breaking the trend of the past and what did brought this? It was certainly the news around ETF approval which caused a huge surge of demand and made it so. So you see traders need to re strategize or analyze all the time just not to be beaten off by news. But in a long run the market tends to obey history that’s why you see many experienced investors ask people to go for

[GreatArkansas]

(....)
Now for those that have known how bitcoin have been transgressing since its inception and a possible bull run after the halving. If the traders are to put that into consideration, will they still need to do their normal analysis before entering the market or follow the past pattern of the market that it usually does when an event like that happens? It’s really confusing me and amazed to know how traders still get to be profitable amidst this factors.

We have a lot of things to consider here just as market efficiency, market sentiment, high volatility, and many more.
Other experienced traders may have a higher chance of making profitable trades because of their knowledge, skills and experience for long time in the market, most already master and become more familiar in the market.

[shinratensei_]

using pattern based on historical trend usually to determine the bigger picture of the current market  .

if you analyze from the chart itself it always varies in every bullrun, so really despite bitcoin keep repeating pattern of its historical price chart, nobody know whether it will still follow the same pattern, or not.
so, people and more prominently trader are still so uncertain what direction the market gonna take, not to mention the traders are more of trying to predict the price for short term to profit from the volatility which often has so many variables added that could twist the outcome of the trade such as short squeeze, sudden bad news and so on.

so basically despite all of those things to predict the future price such as following the historical chart pattern and so on, you're still blatantly speculating here or in other words, just don't really know what's gonna happen.

[AVE5]

I have been trying to figure out something about cryptocurrency trading and the volatility in its entirety. I see traders entering trade after taking analysis of the market, considering the market pattern as it has been from past till now. Also putting into consideration other factors like order block, trendline etc. If the market movements is based on that and all traders are experienced, that means they will mostly be on the winning side of the market.

Now for those that have known how bitcoin have been transgressing since its inception and a possible bull run after the halving. If the traders are to put that into consideration, will they still need to do their normal analysis before entering the market or follow the past pattern of the market that it usually does when an event like that happens? It’s really confusing me and amazed to know how traders still get to be profitable amidst this factors.

Investor with great analysis based on experiences doesn't really mean that they're in the winning side rather they stand on chances to the winning side as you may think.
Nomatter how knowledgeable investors would be in the crypto sphere, they'll always be faced with UPs and Downs with varies of sentiments in the market. There's absolutely no professional in the crypto world to remain predictable in the market that's why a long term holding and DCAs becomes the best approach to profitablities because you can't afford to generate all that factors in just a while as a matter of being an experienced Investor.

[slaman29]

Experience and historical trends, aren't they the same thing? If your experience doesn't match historical trend, then you're remembering things wrongly, right? hehe

I mean, if my experience says, every halving, there's a bull run, but historical trend (as in, stats and charts with proven data) shows a bull run came after every halving (but also came before the most recent one), then it's just saying the same thing?

[Ahli38]

I have been trying to figure out something about cryptocurrency trading and the volatility in its entirety. I see traders entering trade after taking analysis of the market, considering the market pattern as it has been from past till now. Also putting into consideration other factors like order block, trendline etc. If the market movements is based on that and all traders are experienced, that means they will mostly be on the winning side of the market.

Now for those that have known how bitcoin have been transgressing since its inception and a possible bull run after the halving. If the traders are to put that into consideration, will they still need to do their normal analysis before entering the market or follow the past pattern of the market that it usually does when an event like that happens? It’s really confusing me and amazed to know how traders still get to be profitable amidst this factors.

Market analysis is not only carried out technically but must also be seen from various other aspects, such as carrying out fundamental and sentimental analysis. Even technical analysis sometimes cannot be expected to be accurate when there is big news that can affect market trends due to changes in market players' sentiments. So if you want to really understand market movements then you shouldn't just focus on technical analysis. But you have to complete it with fundamental and sentimental analysis. And there are several other types of analysis that use several indicators commonly used in the market. But the most basic are these three analyses. Trading looks easy. but it becomes more complex when we really want to understand it.

[Baki202]

Yea, patterns repeat itself, trends never cease from repeating but the question the trader has to solve to be in profit is when does the trend has to actually repeat... Cause that's where your analysis comes in, you've to analyze to know not to take a wrong trading position because fake-outs are there to test your psychology. Simply put, market history do repeat but the challenge lies on the trader to get an accuracy of the timing either through technical or fundamental analysis of the market.

One of the best things about bitcoin is that it's always easy to learn from because there's a record to refer to and it always follows the same path. If you want to learn, all you have to do is look at the price, which is either rising or falling and applies to both bull and bear markets, so everyone can understand. And the thing to focus on is not more than to know how to do analysis that way you can enjoy your trading become a lot of people don’t want to take their time to learn.

Repeating is not actually the problem but how to address the challenges that comes your way while trading because everything about bitcoin has challenges, knowing how to manage your emotions to matters a lot because number this is that people are always scared that they might lose their money, they need to prepare their self before they start anything.