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Author Topic: German government having second thoughts.  (Read 394 times)
darkangel11 (OP)
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July 07, 2024, 06:46:07 PM
 #1

So, as you guys probably know the most of this recent pullback was caused by two main factors. The German government selling bitcoins worth close to $400 million and a liquidation of long positions that this caused. As a result people called out Germany for dumping bitcoin to manipulate the market and not being smart enough to sell OTC. There were even people who offered to buy their coins. Finally, there were German politicians who questioned the move, since this not only was a loss for Germany, but also other market participants. They could easily get a better price if they sold OTC.
Now it looks like Germany pulled back the last 1915 BTC from exchanges, so it looks like we won't see any dumps from them for some time. Still, the damage was done, but maybe we needed some liquidations to move forward?
Here's the article.

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July 07, 2024, 07:10:14 PM
 #2

I was reading another article earlier today, and the article stated that they bought back some bitcoin after the market dump as a result of panic selling as they moved that heavy amount of BTC to exchanges.
 
But from the information I got from X
Quote
Update: German Government BTC Movements German Government wallets received 1915 BTC ($111.5M) last night back from addresses linked to Kraken, Bitstamp and Coinbase. 1047.4 BTC ($57.2M) has been moved out of their wallets this morning: -547.4 BTC ($30.1M) to Flow Traders -500 BTC ($27.1M) to 139Po (likely deposit for institutional/OTC service)

It appears that maybe they actually did not sell off all the deposits they made across the 3 major exchanges; maybe their plan was probably to manipulate the market, or there could also be a possibility that they sold out some of those coins and later bought them back after the market dropped below $55,000.

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darkangel11 (OP)
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July 07, 2024, 07:21:08 PM
Last edit: July 08, 2024, 06:58:20 PM by darkangel11
Merited by OgNasty (1)
 #3

I was reading another article earlier today, and the article stated that they bought back some bitcoin after the market dump

According to the Forbes article they pulled back ~2k BTC but the amount they sent to exchanges was 7800 BTC. The rest was sold and caused the liquidations and the drop in spot price.
They did not buy back anything. There are articles like this one circulating in the Internet that suggest they bought some coins back. IMO there was no buyback and many sources seem to support that. They stopped selling and moved the rest of the coins back to their wallet.

maybe their plan was probably to manipulate the market,

I don't think so. It's the government, it can't allow itself to be accused of manipulating the price, dumping to liquidate traders and buy back.
They're selling because this was seized money and they don't need a bitcoin position, but want to get EUR for it. The problem is they could get more by selling OTC, but someone irresponsible was charged with selling coins, so that person thought they were smart and moved BTC to a number of exchanges to spread it, so that it doesn't put too much pressure on 1 exchange, but I don't think they realized how shallow the market was and how deep this sale would take the price. Once they did their thing and saw the price drop by 20% they stopped.

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July 07, 2024, 07:52:42 PM
 #4

maybe their plan was probably to manipulate the market,

I don't think so. It's the government, it can allow itself to be accused of manipulating the price, dumping to liquidate traders and buy back.
They're selling because this was seized money and they don't need a bitcoin position, but want to get EUR for it. The problem is they could get more by selling OTC, but someone irresponsible was charged with selling coins, so that person thought they were smart and moved BTC to a number of exchanges to spread it, so that it doesn't put too much pressure on 1 exchange, but I don't think they realized how shallow the market was and how deep this sale would take the price. Once they did their thing and saw the price drop by 20% they stopped.

Yes, maybe someone just messed up.  But come on, we are talking about the third-largest economy in the world! They gotta have at least one brainiac who could have seen this market impact coming a mile away, right?  Especially since those wallet addresses were public knowledge, everyone was watching them!  It is easy to imagine someone on the inside, someone who knew the whole plan, trying to game the system for their own gain.  You know how it goes with money, people see an opportunity... And hey, remember that insider at the SEC who tried to mess with Bitcoin ETFs?  Same idea.  Now they are probably scrambling to fix things after realizing what a blunder this was.

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July 07, 2024, 09:13:21 PM
 #5

It appears that maybe they actually did not sell off all the deposits they made across the 3 major exchanges; maybe their plan was probably to manipulate the market, or there could also be a possibility that they sold out some of those coins and later bought them back after the market dropped below $55,000.

They definitely didn’t sell off all the coins that’s why the remaining 1915 are coming back. Also they didn’t want to Manipulate the market because I don’t see reasons, from even their strategy of selling that’s using three different exchanges and also spreading the sales into days because they started sell off since first of July they didn’t want it to impact the market but it got caught up with other sell offs like Mt.Gox refund and also movement of large amount from US addresses were what caused the FUD to intensify the fall not necessarily them alone. probably that’s why they had a second thought and stop selling

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July 07, 2024, 10:18:34 PM
 #6

The big whales have all sorts of plans to dump the market as a strategy to get the German government to sell their bitcoins. However, holders and traders should be aware of such activities because the amount of BTC they are trying to sell is not a huge amount according to the Bitcoin market, but their selling has a negative effect on the crypto market as a whole. But it certainly won't take long to get rid of this position. If one of the big whales announces more bitcoin purchases I think it won't take long for the market to go back to its previous position. However, this dump in the market could certainly encourage more bullish action in the future.

The German government has applied a good strategy. After they panicked ordinary investors by selling bitcoins and raising the pacer of sales in the market, they again bought 1915 bitcoins using various exchanges. Here they bought bitcoins from the market at a lower price after selling at a higher. They profited but lost who panicked and quickly sold Bitcoin.

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July 07, 2024, 10:33:00 PM
Last edit: July 07, 2024, 11:01:10 PM by AmoreJaz
 #7

It appears that maybe they actually did not sell off all the deposits they made across the 3 major exchanges; maybe their plan was probably to manipulate the market, or there could also be a possibility that they sold out some of those coins and later bought them back after the market dropped below $55,000.

They definitely didn’t sell off all the coins that’s why the remaining 1915 are coming back. Also they didn’t want to Manipulate the market because I don’t see reasons, from even their strategy of selling that’s using three different exchanges and also spreading the sales into days because they started sell off since first of July they didn’t want it to impact the market but it got caught up with other sell offs like Mt.Gox refund and also movement of large amount from US addresses were what caused the FUD to intensify the fall not necessarily them alone. probably that’s why they had a second thought and stop selling

If they will continue selling, the price will just go down and they won't get a lot from it. If they are not in a hurry to sell, better sell those bitcoins in a staggered basis. In that way, they will earn more from this sell-off. Dumping those coins all at once may influence the btc market, but it will only be for short-term.

The big whales have all sorts of plans to dump the market as a strategy to get the German government to sell their bitcoins. However, holders and traders should be aware of such activities because the amount of BTC they are trying to sell is not a huge amount according to the Bitcoin market, but their selling has a negative effect on the crypto market as a whole. But it certainly won't take long to get rid of this position. If one of the big whales announces more bitcoin purchases I think it won't take long for the market to go back to its previous position. However, this dump in the market could certainly encourage more bullish action in the future.

The German government has applied a good strategy. After they panicked ordinary investors by selling bitcoins and raising the pacer of sales in the market, they again bought 1915 bitcoins using various exchanges. Here they bought bitcoins from the market at a lower price after selling at a higher. They profited but lost who panicked and quickly sold Bitcoin.

As we have seen btc throughout the years, this sell-off won't cripple its market. The price may go down, but sooner or later, it will recover again. This was not the first time that an organization sold a big chunk of bitcoins in the market. And we all know the drill here.

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July 07, 2024, 10:55:21 PM
 #8

I do not think that's a guarantee just because they've pulled back those Bitcoins. They're playing the market and probably thought that there's no way that Bitcoin is the same as their cash that they can have it more if they want to as it's limited supply.

The German government has applied a good strategy. After they panicked ordinary investors by selling bitcoins and raising the pacer of sales in the market, they again bought 1915 bitcoins using various exchanges. Here they bought bitcoins from the market at a lower price after selling at a higher. They profited but lost who panicked and quickly sold Bitcoin.
It's a common strategy that even the financial institutions apply. I've been seeing that type of strategy since I was new on this market.

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July 07, 2024, 10:59:04 PM
Last edit: July 07, 2024, 11:11:47 PM by STT
 #9

1915 BTC is only 107m  and I dont think thats a weight great enough to alter the balance of market order books globally.    The German government being the seller is the bigger factor, the perception is moving the market and Im surprised to hear they have 40,000 in reserves.  That entire amount would count as something but still its not a proper reason to move a market price around the world.

In conjunction with other factors, a whole series of moves in a trend then yea it matters but not by itself.  Just another story that is written to go with the market moves, valid news but its a label not the actual content of what is moving the market imo.

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July 08, 2024, 03:31:03 AM
 #10

It appears that maybe they actually did not sell off all the deposits they made across the 3 major exchanges; maybe their plan was probably to manipulate the market, or there could also be a possibility that they sold out some of those coins and later bought them back after the market dropped below $55,000.
Pretty doubtful with this maybe people just become so afraid they took out their buy orders once they know that german government moving their BTC to exchange addresses.
a bad news can indeed be quite shocking to the BTC holders many of times it amplifies the bearish sentiment.

but the final gesture of actually settling things over OTC saved the market from going down further, honestly market could easily eat up all those BTC but man the news about it is what causes people to make a big deal out of it.
Even recent sell off actually amounts to more than the amount of BTC mt.gox is trying to distribute.

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July 08, 2024, 02:49:00 PM
Merited by darkangel11 (1)
 #11

They have no intention of reconsidering, they are continuing to deposit larger amounts of bitcoin into various exchanges today. After sending 155 million USD this morning, they also just sent 8100 BTC to exchanges, of which 200 million USD was sent to Flow Traders. My guess is that they are looking to sell out rather than hold any bitcoin and the bitcoin price continues to fluctuate with this news. In the short term, it looks like this will be negative news that causes panic and we need to brace ourselves. But in the long run, it will be good for us because ultimately we won't have any impact from them once they sell all those bitcoins.

https://x.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1810315954431176898


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July 08, 2024, 02:59:46 PM
 #12

I was reading another article earlier today, and the article stated that they bought back some bitcoin after the market dump as a result of panic selling as they moved that heavy amount of BTC to exchanges.

Don't tell me that the German govt is playing pump and dump games on Bitcoin market...
However, if your source is correct, it looks like it's the case...

Let's see what will they say they did. It would make sense to take a break until mt.gox hysteria ends and the price goes back to up trend.
On the other hand, government related tasks are more like a train: start slow and also slow to stop. So.. did they buy back or not?!

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July 08, 2024, 03:37:44 PM
 #13

To me it doesnt make sense why they would sell at this time, I mean they dont NEED
to sell those coins, they could HODL hold them until say next year when there is a
market push up. Who advised them to sell now? whoever it was do they not have
an understanding of the Bitcoin cycle and post halving historical trend?

The cynic in me thinks the government did this in order to create an opportunity
for themselves to buy cheap at a personal level...

it also gives everyone the same opportunity!

R


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July 08, 2024, 06:28:37 PM
 #14

So, as you guys probably know the most of this recent pullback was caused by two main factors. The German government selling bitcoins worth close to $400 million and a liquidation of long positions that this caused. As a result people called out Germany for dumping bitcoin to manipulate the market and not being smart enough to sell OTC. There were even people who offered to buy their coins. Finally, there were German politicians who questioned the move, since this not only was a loss for Germany, but also other market participants. They could easily get a better price if they sold OTC.
Now it looks like Germany pulled back the last 1915 BTC from exchanges, so it looks like we won't see any dumps from them for some time. Still, the damage was done, but maybe we needed some liquidations to move forward?
Here's the article.
What they did was pure market manipulation but it was ill-advised.  Like you said, they would have gotten a better deal of they had sold through OTC but seems that was not their target. What I can make of the whole scenario is that they internationally dumped to lower the price so they could buy lower, this can be seen from their repeated selling and buying but then, the handlers seems not too smart about it. Well, I agree with you that we have passed that now and even if they would want a repeat of that, they will explore other options. The lucky people are those who used the dip to collect more Bitcoins... they are the real winners.

R


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July 08, 2024, 07:06:38 PM
Merited by darkangel11 (1)
 #15

So, as you guys probably know the most of this recent pullback was caused by two main factors. The German government selling bitcoins worth close to $400 million and a liquidation of long positions that this caused. As a result people called out Germany for dumping bitcoin to manipulate the market and not being smart enough to sell OTC. There were even people who offered to buy their coins. Finally, there were German politicians who questioned the move, since this not only was a loss for Germany, but also other market participants. They could easily get a better price if they sold OTC.
Now it looks like Germany pulled back the last 1915 BTC from exchanges, so it looks like we won't see any dumps from them for some time. Still, the damage was done, but maybe we needed some liquidations to move forward?
Here's the article.
What they did was pure market manipulation but it was ill-advised.  Like you said, they would have gotten a better deal of they had sold through OTC but seems that was not their target. What I can make of the whole scenario is that they internationally dumped to lower the price so they could buy lower, this can be seen from their repeated selling and buying but then, the handlers seems not too smart about it. Well, I agree with you that we have passed that now and even if they would want a repeat of that, they will explore other options. The lucky people are those who used the dip to collect more Bitcoins... they are the real winners.

The fact that the transactions were known to the public and it was publicly available information where they sent BTC to 3 exchanges is like they want people to also dump. And along with this, there is also Mt.Gox distribution. It was like a coordinated dumping party, they ditched FTX though as if it could clean its reputation.

But this is close to the government dumping and pumping BTC. They know El Salvador is mining BTC like it's the most valuable mineral to find in a quarry but the German government is throwing them. But who benefits from this act by the way?

Their government definitely has a financial advisor, they should consult him before this selling. But I'm guess it's not up to the German government to hold these coins.

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July 08, 2024, 07:25:08 PM
 #16

They have no intention of reconsidering, they are continuing to deposit larger amounts of bitcoin into various exchanges today. After sending 155 million USD this morning, they also just sent 8100 BTC to exchanges, of which 200 million USD was sent to Flow Traders. My guess is that they are looking to sell out rather than hold any bitcoin and the bitcoin price continues to fluctuate with this news. In the short term, it looks like this will be negative news that causes panic and we need to brace ourselves. But in the long run, it will be good for us because ultimately we won't have any impact from them once they sell all those bitcoins.

https://x.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1810315954431176898



This is very interesting because they moved back that $2k and then some other articles claim that they send 500BTC worth $28m to exchanges today. Why would they take back 2k and days later send 25% out to be sold? Makes no sense, unless they had conflicting orders.
Ultimately the people who are doing it are low level employees. There are bosses who come and say sell it all, then call them saying we had a shit storm in the parliament about selling so maybe take that back for now, and then the next day the employees are being told to keep selling but at much slower pace 25% of what they used to do so the market can digest it.
I have no idea why they're doing it the way they are, but I know how it's done in institutions that follow a chain of command. Usually the smartest people are lower in rank but due to their position cannot fix the mistakes made by people higher up.

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July 08, 2024, 07:25:56 PM
 #17

To me it doesnt make sense why they would sell at this time, I mean they dont NEED
to sell those coins, they could HODL hold them until say next year when there is a
market push up. Who advised them to sell now? whoever it was do they not have
an understanding of the Bitcoin cycle and post halving historical trend?

The cynic in me thinks the government did this in order to create an opportunity
for themselves to buy cheap at a personal level...

it also gives everyone the same opportunity!
In essence, the bitcoin market is still very volatile and prices tend to easily fall by thousands of dollars when there is confirmation of large sales from any institution, including the government. Regardless of the German government's reasons for selling its bitcoin, we can only take the positive side that the bitcoin market is basically very easy to sway and take advantage of by certain groups with a lot of money. One sells in large quantities, the other buys and takes advantage of the panic. What kind of market game is this?

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July 08, 2024, 09:27:36 PM
 #18

To me it doesnt make sense why they would sell at this time, I mean they dont NEED
to sell those coins, they could HODL hold them until say next year when there is a
market push up. Who advised them to sell now? whoever it was do they not have
an understanding of the Bitcoin cycle and post halving historical trend?

The cynic in me thinks the government did this in order to create an opportunity
for themselves to buy cheap at a personal level...

it also gives everyone the same opportunity!
I don't know if the German government had a plan to sell at the beginning of July without thinking about the price going up or down?
Does the government also not care about the profits they get. the important thing is that they sell the confiscated proceeds?
It is certain that the government has advisors who understand the bitcoin cycle, it's just that we don't know why the German government is selling now.

Let an institution sell all the assets it has from confiscation, in the end this news will subside too, I don't care if this is profitable or not, what is clear is that this sale makes the price fall.

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July 09, 2024, 01:18:59 AM
 #19

Germany's next federal election on voting for their representatives in the Bundestag will be next year on October 2025 heheheh. If you are from Germany and you want your voices to be heard on stopping the dump on bitcoin, I reckon this might be a good chance for the bitcoin community in Germany to have a meeting and begin a campaign against politicians who are anticrypto. Do not vote for these people, they do not care for the cryptospace and the price of our cryptocoins heheheheh. Vote for the politicians who will pump our coins!

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July 09, 2024, 01:41:46 AM
 #20

The fact that the transactions were known to the public and it was publicly available information where they sent BTC to 3 exchanges is like they want people to also dump. And along with this, there is also Mt.Gox distribution. It was like a coordinated dumping party, they ditched FTX though as if it could clean its reputation.

But this is close to the government dumping and pumping BTC. They know El Salvador is mining BTC like it's the most valuable mineral to find in a quarry but the German government is throwing them. But who benefits from this act by the way?

Their government definitely has a financial advisor, they should consult him before this selling. But I'm guess it's not up to the German government to hold these coins.

The transaction discovered by arkham intelligence which entire project focused on tracking the movement of bitcoin especially from the big whales, german government have massive amount of BTC will definitely catch their attention not to mention it's sending to exchange address.
regardless I agree, their government should've done better with selling through OTC instead of right on dumping in the exchange creating massive panic, they could've gotten better price too.
but unfortunately, the public already shaken by the news, so yeah the fear & greed index already at the level of fear.

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