Historical mistake: England sold gold in 1999 and Germany sold BTC in 2024?

[Vincom]

Recent discussions have centered around the potential consequences of the German government offloading 50,000 Bitcoin on the crypto market ^[1]. This scenario bears striking similarities to a previous incident in England during 1999.

The German government's decision to offload its Bitcoin holdings at a price below 60K USD echoes the controversial sale of UK gold reserves in 1999. As one of the world's largest sovereign BTC holders, Germany's divestment at this relatively low price point has raised concerns among financial analysts. Some experts are even comparing this move to the UK's gold sale, suggesting it could be a similarly detrimental financial strategy ^[2].

The recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs marks a pivotal moment, broadening BTC accessibility and potentially attracting substantial institutional investment. I anticipate sustained BTC price growth through 2025. Given this bullish outlook, Germany's decision to offload its BTC holdings could prove short-sighted. There's a possibility that government officials may reconsider this strategy, potentially opting to retain BTC as a national asset rather than liquidating it via OTC.

I would like to know your opinion on this issue:

• Do you think the German government's BTC sell-off was a historical mistake?
• If you could help the German government make a decision, would you like to turn this 50K BTC into a national reserve?
• Do you continue to believe in BTC price growth opportunities in the near future to become an extremely valuable asset in the economy?

References:
[1] Germany Almost Done Selling Bitcoin, Holding Less Than 5K Tokens After Latest Moves
[2] German Government Bitcoin Selling Akin To UK Selling Its Gold

[Reatim]

I would like to know your opinion on this issue:

• Do you think the German government's BTC sell-off was a historical mistake?

It's difficult to say as we have no idea about what exactly is happening in their government. I am not well aware of their laws but it could be a possibility that they had to do this to comply. Or maybe they are going to use it for something urgent. Who knows? As investors we would always see this as a mistake but how they use it could show whether it was really a mistake or not.

• If you could help the German government make a decision, would you like to turn this 50K BTC into a national reserve?

No. Bitcoin is too volatile right now to be used as a reserve and stabilize their economy.

• Do you continue to believe in BTC price growth opportunities in the near future to become an extremely valuable asset in the economy?

Yes which is why I continue to hold my bitcoins unlike Germany

[kryptqnick]

I've tried to find this information online but failed to do so. I think I saw somewhere on the forum that there are rules and timelines in Germany (or perhaps in Saxony specifically) about how fast seized assets must be sold and that Saxony is only following the rules by selling its BTC now. Perhaps someone could find a source on that; I would greatly appreciate it.
If that's true, then Germany is selling regardless of the price. Even if that isn't true, the current price is still fantastic, among the best BTC prices in its history, so I don't think they're making a mistake by selling now. Besides, you never know with Bitcoin: the price can easily be $40k in a couple of months, so waiting for a better moment can be risky.

[Catenaccio]

I've tried to find this information online but failed to do so. I think I saw somewhere on the forum that there are rules and timelines in Germany (or perhaps in Saxony specifically) about how fast seized assets must be sold and that Saxony is only following the rules by selling its BTC now. Perhaps someone could find a source on that; I would greatly appreciate it.
If that's true, then Germany is selling regardless of the price.

They are selling or liquidating these bitcoins according to existing laws and rules in my guess, like you. As government, they do their jobs based on current active existing laws and rules, and don't hold bitcoins as own investments.

Someone live in Germany and understand their laws better, can give us more details but I bet that my theory is true.

Even if that isn't true, the current price is still fantastic, among the best BTC prices in its history, so I don't think they're making a mistake by selling now. Besides, you never know with Bitcoin: the price can easily be $40k in a couple of months, so waiting for a better moment can be risky.

The current price, even below $60,000 is amazing because yearly candles chart shows that in 2021, the ATH of a previous cycle is $67,549 and today Bitcoin is exchanging with price about $58,100. It is only 14% from 2021 ATH and if in this current cycle, Bitcoin did not make its new ATH before a halving in April, current price is very good.

In addition, the Bitcoin bull run will continue.

[Iranus]

• Do you think the German government's BTC sell-off was a historical mistake?
• If you could help the German government make a decision, would you like to turn this 50K BTC into a national reserve?
• Do you continue to believe in BTC price growth opportunities in the near future to become an extremely valuable asset in the economy?

1. The difference is that at that time gold was already a global reserve asset and considered the most reliable asset that any country would want to own. Therefore, the decision to sell more than 50% of gold reserves is really a wrong decision by the British Government even though we do not know the reason behind it.
Meanwhile, bitcoin remains a volatile asset and is not a national reserve asset nor does it account for too much of the German government's budget. There was a huge difference between the British government's sale of gold at the time and the German government's sale of bitcoin.

2. So far, no country has dared to turn bitcoin into a national reserve asset because of its volatility, so using bitcoin as a national reserve at this stage is somewhat risky for the economy.

3. As a bitcoin investor, everyone wants the value of bitcoin to skyrocket, but the future is unpredictable.

[Solosanz]

I don't understand why people nowadays really like to getting involved in someone else business, please mind your own business, if they want to sell their coins, let they go. It's their own choice to sell their coins, why we need to hope other people to sell their coins during x price or x time?

There's nothing wrong for them doing that, same to Laszlo who spent 10,000 Bitcoins to buy 2 pizzas, yet people still saying he's stupid. Laszlo was the one who make Bitcoin price can be so high.

[Lucius]

~snip~
Do you think the German government's BTC sell-off was a historical mistake?

Why would that be a historical mistake? They got all that BTC for free, they didn't even have to bother too much because after the investigation, the "criminals" voluntarily sent them BTC. Besides, what impact does a few billion $ have on the economy of a country that has an annual budget of $4+ trillion?

You forgot to add China to the whole story, because some persistently repeated that China also made the wrong move when it banned BTC - but even if they had all the BTC that exists and had a 100% share in mining, for such a huge economy it would not means too much.

[examplens]

~snip~
Do you think the German government's BTC sell-off was a historical mistake?

Why would that be a historical mistake? They got all that BTC for free, they didn't even have to bother too much because after the investigation, the "criminals" voluntarily sent them BTC. Besides, what impact does a few billion $ have on the economy of a country that has an annual budget of $4+ trillion?

Perhaps this amount helped them to close some budget holes that would later cause greater losses than the profits that would bring a potential increase in the price of Bitcoin.

Why do a large number of Bitcoin holders think that the only right thing to do is to keep Bitcoin? Which holding period is best, 10, 50 or 100 years? Every cycle has its beginning and end and whenever the German government sold its Bitcoin, one could always question whether they should have waited longer. In the end, they got them for free, and most likely there will be more free Bitcoin for them in the future.

[m2017]

Recent discussions have centered around the potential consequences of the German government offloading 50,000 Bitcoin on the crypto market ^[1]. This scenario bears striking similarities to a previous incident in England during 1999.

Your title says 2019.

I would like to know your opinion on this issue:

• Do you think the German government's BTC sell-off was a historical mistake?
• If you could help the German government make a decision, would you like to turn this 50K BTC into a national reserve?
• Do you continue to believe in BTC price growth opportunities in the near future to become an extremely valuable asset in the economy?

1 - History studies events over time and it will be possible to evaluate events from the perspective of historical error only after time. It is now impossible to say for sure whether the German government's move was a mistake.

Although I am sure that most of the BTC-community will condemn these actions, believing that bitcoin will continue to rise in price. But even with the sale of BTC by the German government now, they found themselves in a huge profit (money out of thin air), because these bitcoins were received for free (confiscated).

2 -  It’s difficult for me to say, because I don’t know the internal economic situation in Germany, what to make a decision about holding bitcoin (there are other reserves) or selling right now (reserves are running out).

3 - All direct and indirect indicators indicate this.

[darkangel11]

The way I see it, they took the coins from a movie sharing platform in January and started dumping it in June. Most likely they had no way of holding it or thought it posed a risk and made them vulnerable. What if someone were to gain access to it due to a clerk's mistake and steal it? The government would become a laughingstock, they would have a problem tracking the thief, wouldn't be able to block or blacklist the money like they can do with fiat money...
I also believe this is part of some speculation by them. I wouldn't be surprised if the employees of the office tasked with selling bitcoin had shorts on bitcoin futures set up before they started dumping on spot, which is exactly why they did not do what the FBI did many times before and put seized coins on auction. They wanted to influence the spot market. Maybe for their own benefit, maybe under pressure from EU central bank who as we all know hates crypto.
Was this a mistake? I don't think so. If they really wanted to hold enough bitcoin that could mean anything to a country, they'd need to go way beyond 100k coins. They'd need to invest at least 1% of GDP every year.

[tranthidung]

To simplify it like if anyone, any entity sells anything and years later, its price goes up a lot, it means that person, entity made historical mistake.

I am sorry but no, it's not historical mistake because at different point of time or period of time, a person or entity has specific need and has to do most appropriate decisions. Years later, looking back, don't see it as mistake if at the time you sell anything, it helped you to solve some problems in your life.

But to avoid regret, to buy massive chance in future, you can reserve a small part as your lottery ticket to future. Like if you can not hold all or most of your bitcoin, you can reserve 1%, 5% or 10% of it, as a bet for future. It might help or might not help, but time will tell you about result of this approach.

[aoluain]

~snip~
Do you think the German government's BTC sell-off was a historical mistake?

Why would that be a historical mistake? They got all that BTC for free, they didn't even have to bother too much because after the investigation, the "criminals" voluntarily sent them BTC. Besides, what impact does a few billion $ have on the economy of a country that has an annual budget of $4+ trillion?

Perhaps this amount helped them to close some budget holes that would later cause greater losses than the profits that would bring a potential increase in the price of Bitcoin.

Why do a large number of Bitcoin holders think that the only right thing to do is to keep Bitcoin? Which holding period is best, 10, 50 or 100 years? Every cycle has its beginning and end and whenever the German government sold its Bitcoin, one could always question whether they should have waited longer. In the end, they got them for free, and most likely there will be more free Bitcoin for them in the future.

my thinking after reading the OP was that it will turn out to be a historical mistake
within the next 12 months or so and I'm thinking they couldnt have been desperate
enough for the proceeds from the sale not to wait less than a year.....

unless someone in the decision making was fearful Bitcoin was going to ""ZERO""

Definitely no rules on how long anyone should HODL but the timing of the sales was
not the most opportune even if it is 100% profit.
I'm taking it that the German government

[examplens]

my thinking after reading the OP was that it will turn out to be a historical mistake
within the next 12 months or so and I'm thinking they couldnt have been desperate
enough for the proceeds from the sale not to wait less than a year.....

I think that the error with the prefix historical requires a slightly longer period of 12 months. The German economy has a rather long and complex history for one decision in 12 months to have such weight.
They have already waited for a certain period, why would they wait another year? Because forum users think it's better that way?

It should also be kept in mind that the German government's decision to sell Bitcoin is not simple, and it certainly did not happen that the decision was made today and the next day Bitcoin went on sale. It is very possible that the initiative was launched approximately at the time of ATH, but a period of obtaining the consent of all authorities, ratification in the parliament or whatever process was needed. A process that certainly lasts a certain period.

[tread93]

Recent discussions have centered around the potential consequences of the German government offloading 50,000 Bitcoin on the crypto market ^[1]. This scenario bears striking similarities to a previous incident in England during 1999.

The German government's decision to offload its Bitcoin holdings at a price below 60K USD echoes the controversial sale of UK gold reserves in 1999. As one of the world's largest sovereign BTC holders, Germany's divestment at this relatively low price point has raised concerns among financial analysts. Some experts are even comparing this move to the UK's gold sale, suggesting it could be a similarly detrimental financial strategy ^[2].

The recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs marks a pivotal moment, broadening BTC accessibility and potentially attracting substantial institutional investment. I anticipate sustained BTC price growth through 2025. Given this bullish outlook, Germany's decision to offload its BTC holdings could prove short-sighted. There's a possibility that government officials may reconsider this strategy, potentially opting to retain BTC as a national asset rather than liquidating it via OTC.

I would like to know your opinion on this issue:

• Do you think the German government's BTC sell-off was a historical mistake?
• If you could help the German government make a decision, would you like to turn this 50K BTC into a national reserve?
• Do you continue to believe in BTC price growth opportunities in the near future to become an extremely valuable asset in the economy?

References:
[1] Germany Almost Done Selling Bitcoin, Holding Less Than 5K Tokens After Latest Moves
[2] German Government Bitcoin Selling Akin To UK Selling Its Gold

Its a pity for Germany really that they don't see the value in the Bitcoin but hey maybe they just needed the cash for something?? I definitely think it was a huge mistake for them and that they will realize that down the road but for now i'm sure the government officials are all sitting in some huge bungalow drinking german beers thinking what a great decision they made. 

[yhiaali3]

I don't know the motives behind the German government selling all of its Bitcoin. They started selling and did not stop until they emptied the entire wallet. Do they really need this money? Or do they want to get rid of Bitcoin for other reasons? No one knows exactly.

I do not know if the German government made a historical mistake by selling all of its bitcoins, but they certainly have strong reasons for doing so. I also do not expect that keeping these quantities would have a major economic role in a rich and economically strong country like Germany. If it were another smaller country, it would certainly have been a mistake. Historically, but for Germany I don't think so.

[shield132]

There are many German users on this forum, I'll be glad if someone explains how this goes and I'll add some more questions in this thread.

First of all, when the government seizes Bitcoin, who makes the decision on how to save the wallet keys? And who is about to take care of that? Who is responsible for Bitcoins going from the seized wallet? Who has control over wallet private keys?

Second of all, who decides to sell those confiscated coins? Can the government hold the seized assets as long as it wants? If yes, then who decides when to sell it and at in what price? In my country, there is an online auction and everything is sold in the auction. As I see, the German government sold them manually on different exchanges.


Btw OP, this sell was not a historical mistake, they sold it at 58K or something like that, not at 500$. Selling at ATH would be nice but it's still not something they need to worry about, and it's still a decent profit.

[seoincorporation]

Is hard to know if it was a mistake because we don't know what are they doing with that capital, maybe they invest in something with a better revenue. But I would bet they will put that money on war.

The se days are complex for europe, the ww3 feels really close nowadays. They need money for it.

[nelson4lov]

Do you think the German government's BTC sell-off was a historical mistake?

Frankly, I don't even know because Bitcoin's price is still relatively higher than when they first started selling bitcoin (mid 60K price level) so if they buy back now, it won't be a mistake after all. Worth noting that those Bitcoins were seized when Bitcoin's price was dead cheap.

If you could help the German government make a decision, would you like to turn this 50K BTC into a national reserve?

Definitely a reserve but not just passively. Sell a part of the reserve as perceived top levels and buy back on any pull back. Bitcoin is going to be very valuable in the future, we might just accumulate enough of it while holding. Good plan imo.

Do you continue to believe in BTC price growth opportunities in the near future to become an extremely valuable asset in the economy?

Same as above. Like businesses and firms, countries too need good assets as much as they have liabilities. Bitcoin would make a fine asset for any country's economy.

[adultcrypto]

How did you come to the conclusion that it was a mistake selling Gold by 2019? It could be their target price to sell even though the price went further. That might also be the case with the German government with bitcoin, they might just be selling at a price they felt was fine for their target. We cannot possibly call their targets a mistake. Well, holding bitcoin would have actually been a better option for the German government unless they sold with plans to buy back.

[davis196]

Do you think the German government's BTC sell-off was a historical mistake?
If you could help the German government make a decision, would you like to turn this 50K BTC into a national reserve?
Do you continue to believe in BTC price growth opportunities in the near future to become an extremely valuable asset in the economy?

1.I don't think that this was a "historical mistake". Do you remember the BTC price in July 2023? I don't remember the exact price, but I remember that it was in the range of 25-30K USD. Selling BTC at 55K-59K USD seems like a good deal for the German government.
I don't really believe that the German government would be HODLing BTC and waiting for the price to hit 100K only for the sake of maximizing profits. This is a government, not a private investor, so maximizing the profit isn't the main goal here.
2.I don't care if any government in the world would keep BTC as a national reserve.
3.Yes, there will be more BTC bull runs in the future. The Federal Reserve is going to decrease the interest rates and the financial markets will be flooded again with easy money, which means higher crypto prices.