US-China economy war + radical Trump = higher inflation + interest rates + war

[Argoo]

There is a good chance that the next US president will be able to fulfill #1 by ending the NATO-Russian war (possibly recognizing occupied parts as Russia) as there are enough signals coming out from US making me confident about that possibility. Trump will probably have an easier time doing that because of his radical decisions.

Since this opinion was expressed, that is, since mid-July, there have been significant changes in the US presidential election campaign: Biden refused to run again for this post on July 21, and US Vice President Kamala Harris became an official participant instead. Since then, Trump has lost a lot of popularity and Harris is now leading in most states. This is very unpleasant news for Russia, which hoped to weaken support for Ukraine with Trump's help to protect it from Russian occupiers.

Therefore, the Kremlin's hope for freezing the war, recognizing the occupied territories of Ukraine for Russia and easing sanctions is unlikely to happen. And in the issue of the war and its end, Ukraine will always have the last word, even if Trump becomes US president again. In addition, if the borders along the front line are frozen, will the Kremlin agree to lose part of the Kursk region, which has already been "liberated" by Ukraine? A very interesting question.

[pooya87]

Since this opinion was expressed, that is, since mid-July, there have been significant changes in the US presidential election campaign: Biden refused to run again for this post on July 21, and US Vice President Kamala Harris became an official participant instead. Since then, Trump has lost a lot of popularity and Harris is now leading in most states. This is very unpleasant news for Russia, which hoped to weaken support for Ukraine with Trump's help to protect it from Russian occupiers.

Therefore, the Kremlin's hope for freezing the war, recognizing the occupied territories of Ukraine for Russia and easing sanctions is unlikely to happen. And in the issue of the war and its end, Ukraine will always have the last word, even if Trump becomes US president again. In addition, if the borders along the front line are frozen, will the Kremlin agree to lose part of the Kursk region, which has already been "liberated" by Ukraine? A very interesting question.

You are seeing things from a very narrow perspective since all your focus is on Ukraine and Ukraine alone.

If you expand your view, you can see things better.
US regime is already spread too thin around the world. They can not sustain this situation for long specially since they are hemorrhaging money, in trillions. They need to reduce their costs at some point and that means abandoning some of the wars they are participating in specially when the problems pile on back home.
Also since according to all the National Security thing they release, China is on top of the lists of countries US has to declare war on, they will shift all their focus to East Asia sooner or later.

Remember that the conflict in Ukraine has been helping China grow which is not something the US regime wants. The Chinese have not only increased their economic relations with Russia (lots of money in it) they've also started receiving a lot more cheap Russian gas since the European markets were lost to Russia. On top of that the deindustrialization of Europe has also helped China grow significantly as the capital flees Europe.

So THIS is what the US regime cares about not what territory Russia annexed in Ukraine!
This also means the only difference the winner of the upcoming election in US would make is the approach and radicalism. As I pointed out in OP as well.

[WillyAp]

If you expand your view, you can see things better.
US regime is already spread too thin around the world. They can not sustain this situation for long specially since they are hemorrhaging money, in trillions. They need to reduce their costs at some point and that means abandoning some of the wars they are participating in specially when the problems pile on back home.
Also since according to all the National Security thing they release, China is on top of the lists of countries US has to declare war on, they will shift all their focus to East Asia sooner or later.

You should look into a mirror once in a while.

Where do you get the insider info from?
Please post income gross and outflow US Government 2020 to 2024.
So we could draw our own conclusions.

Only because the US sees China as a thread is not a declaration of war.

[pooya87]

Only because the US sees China as a thread is not a declaration of war.

War in this day and age with the existence of nuclear weapons that can wipe out both US and China at the same time does not mean "direct armed conflict" any more.

[WillyAp]

Where do you get the insider info from?
Please post income gross and outflow US Government 2020 to 2024.
So we could draw our own conclusions.

War in this day and age with the existence of nuclear weapons that can wipe out both US and China at the same time does not mean "direct armed conflict" any more.

Please where does the info come from. Plus post income gross and outflow US Government 2020 to 2024.

[Argoo]

If you expand your view, you can see things better.
US regime is already spread too thin around the world. They can not sustain this situation for long specially since they are hemorrhaging money, in trillions. They need to reduce their costs at some point and that means abandoning some of the wars they are participating in specially when the problems pile on back home.
Also since according to all the National Security thing they release, China is on top of the lists of countries US has to declare war on, they will shift all their focus to East Asia sooner or later.

Well, let's broaden our view. The USSR, and then after its collapse Russia, have always been strategic opponents of the USA, and all the time after World War II the USA was preparing for a military confrontation with Russia. Russia's attack on Ukraine, the heroic and often effective resistance of Ukrainians to Russian aggression gave the USA the opportunity, with the hands of Ukrainians, if not to destroy their main potential enemy, then significantly weaken it to such an extent that Russia will no longer have such a big influence on the international arena as it did before. By helping Ukraine, the USA spends only material resources, while saving the lives of their soldiers, since the USA is not yet involved in a direct military contract with Russia. At the same time, the effectiveness of American weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine and, accordingly, the weak effectiveness of Russian weapons, led to the fact that third countries refuse to purchase weapons from Russia and buy them from NATO countries. And this, in turn, led to a sharp increase in the military-industrial complex, an increase in jobs, and so on.

The only thing that the USA still fears is the loss of control over nuclear weapons in the event of the collapse of the Russian Federation. Therefore, the US is not yet providing Ukraine with weapons in the required quantities and assortment, which can lead to a quick victory for Ukraine on the battlefield. But all these red lines are in motion and changing, which was demonstrated by the successful invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region of the Russian Federation and the Kremlin's realization that this is for a long time, and also showed the world the far-fetched greatness of Russia.

On the other hand, the US cannot allow Russia to win the war against Ukraine. This would simultaneously mean the defeat of the US and its allies in the international arena, and the defeat of the US military doctrine, and a departure from the values it advertises, and the need for further military confrontation with Russia after it licks its mortal wounds and gets stronger. The only question is in what format this defeat will be recorded. And Ukraine has already proven that it is a good combat shield for NATO from Russian aggression.

Also, if the US allows Russia to win, this will significantly strengthen the positions of China, Iran, North Korea and the Russian Federation, their military and economic alliances and launch a new round of deadly wars on the planet.

[pooya87]

As I always say: time proves everything...
It is a good thing to go back to these old analysis and see which parts were true, which weren't and what has changed.

I dare say my analysis in OP which I posted before US elections was quite accurate. We saw Trump's tariffs a couple of days ago and we are seeing how the tensions are rapidly rising.
Here is an update:
Europe
US regime needed Europe in its war against China. However, they never imagined their proxy war with Russia to take this long (they really thought Russia would be defeated in a matter of weeks). That proxy war US regime started has destroyed European economy and because of that weakness they refused to fully comply with US regime's demands to join the war against China. In fact many of them did the exact opposite and got closer to China!

Energy market

(1) remove sanctions on Russia and let that oil flow again (2) convince Arab dictators to increase their production (3) end the wars in West Asia so that security comes back and they can actually increase production (remember Saudi invasion of Yemen is in a ceasefire state and not ended).

Trump failed to achieve #1 miserably. However he succeeded in #2, he somehow managed to strongarm the Saudi dictators to increase production and as we see today the oil price has dropped to $60 (of course another reason is recession) which will help but only a little because the inflation is harsher than what $60 can solve.

That leaves us with #3, a situation that is getting worse. This is most probably one of the main reasons why US regime started carrying out terrorist attacks against Yemen, an operation that has cost them over a billion dollar already without achieving anything (the cost doesn't take into account the damage US Navy sustained or the aircrafts they lost).
Considering how some of the US military aircrafts used for carrying out these terrorist attack are flying from these energy rich dictatorships like Saudi usurped Arabia, Qatar and UAE that makes them and all their energy infrastructure a legitimate target. If Yemen chooses to go that way, things will fall apart in the US very rapidly... specially now that millions of Americans are protesting against what they refer to as a fascist government. IMO the chances of that is currently low since as I said the US regime has failed miserably despite committing terrorism, but it can change very fast.

China retaliating
Obviously China is responding to these acts of economic aggression but also as the title says world got one step closer to war (ie. armed conflict). For example China has already increased its aggression toward Taiwan with increased number of military "exercises" and multiple violation of their airspace and also basically surrounding this small island. I can't predict when China will invade but it is definitely one step closer.

[wiss19]

^ Saudi part was quite easy, offering someone a lot of money for giving what they already have plenty of, is not really a shocker. I have no clue how sustainable Saudi Arabia will be in the future after their oil runs out, but I do not think that's anytime soon, so they are probably trying to figure out a way, and all these extra money helps.

I disagree with armed conflict though, stuff like Russia vs Ukraine, or Israel vs Palestine, or Saudi vs Yemen, are all huge nations vs small tiny nations, the biggest weak nation there is Ukraine, and even they are hanging in there all thanks to European and American help, if nobody helped them, it would be over in a month and Russia would have taken any part of Ukraine they wanted.

Maybe China would attack Taiwan too, that's another huge nation vs tiny one. But, I do not see a world war three type of big deal. We have nuclear weapons now, so a world war three is impossible, if anything gets too serious, then some maniac will shoot their nukes, and we will all be gone.

[pooya87]

But, I do not see a world war three type of big deal. We have nuclear weapons now, so a world war three is impossible, if anything gets too serious, then some maniac will shoot their nukes, and we will all be gone.

World Wars in that sense ended with number 2. After Nukes, the world entered a different way of wars and we are currently in World War 5 because the way these wars are fought are changed. The third one was what is known as the cold war (between US and USSR) which the West won, the forth one was NATO's war of terror which despite all their destructions the West lost, and the fifth one is currently ongoing. A proxy war (proxy armed conflict) which we see in Ukraine between NATO and Russia, the US backed terrorist proxies fighting Iran and its allies in the West Asia, and the proxy war they are trying to start with China through Taiwan. WW5 has other aspects too like the economic war US regime is waging against the world.

[God Of Thunder]

I don't understand politics well, but I already understand that Trump is bad for the world. He started the tariff war on purpose. He paused the tariff for 90 days, but the world will suffer. For example, my country exports garments worldwide, and I believe most of the buyers are from the US. If the exporters have to pay more taxes, they will have to increase the product rate.

He is fueling Israel to destroy the Gaza Strip and announced to move the people of Gaza to somewhere else. I feel like Israel is just a proxy country here. The main country is America, which is destroying Gaza.

[NotATether]

But, I do not see a world war three type of big deal. We have nuclear weapons now, so a world war three is impossible, if anything gets too serious, then some maniac will shoot their nukes, and we will all be gone.

World Wars in that sense ended with number 2. After Nukes, the world entered a different way of wars and we are currently in World War 5 because the way these wars are fought are changed. The third one was what is known as the cold war (between US and USSR) which the West won, the forth one was NATO's war of terror which despite all their destructions the West lost, and the fifth one is currently ongoing. A proxy war (proxy armed conflict) which we see in Ukraine between NATO and Russia, the US backed terrorist proxies fighting Iran and its allies in the West Asia, and the proxy war they are trying to start with China through Taiwan. WW5 has other aspects too like the economic war US regime is waging against the world.

They are more like covert wars than world wars as they are not fought with troops personnel (who only act as a security guarantor), and instead of fighting with conventional weapons such as AK-47s, tanks, Apaches and nukes, the world powers are using completely different weapons such as RATs (remote access trojans), troll farms, spyware, and drones.

[EarnOnVictor]

With a quick look at GDP charts you can see that Chinese economy has been rapidly growing. For reasons that nobody can understand the US regime sees that as a threat and at some point they declared war on China! It's more like a cold war and one of the battlefields is the economy.

Permit me to talk with regards to what's currently happening between the US and China:

The prosperity of China that was caused by their decades of discipline, planning, dedication, hard work etc., to achieve the total revamping of the economy is now the target of the US. The US is just hating. Trump only made me see the evil in the US that always wants to have that monopoly of power (politics and economy) while the other countries follow.

Now tell me, should a country as big as China follow the US? I don't think so. Must it always be the US? For what reason? The power must be taken by the economy and politics, and it's too late for Trump to harrass China like he did in his first term.

[Cossyblack]

With a quick look at GDP charts you can see that Chinese economy has been rapidly growing. For reasons that nobody can understand the US regime sees that as a threat and at some point they declared war on China! It's more like a cold war and one of the battlefields is the economy.

Permit me to talk with regards to what's currently happening between the US and China:

The prosperity of China that was caused by their decades of discipline, planning, dedication, hard work etc., to achieve the total revamping of the economy is now the target of the US. The US is just hating. Trump only made me see the evil in the US that always wants to have that monopoly of power (politics and economy) while the other countries follow.

Now tell me, should a country as big as China follow the US? I don't think so. Must it always be the US? For what reason? The power must be taken by the economy and politics, and it's too late for Trump to harrass China like he did in his first term.

China is rapidly catching up to the US in military technology and economy and the Americans see this as a threat to her national security & personal interests. The major problems between both countries is world dominance, The US doesn't want China to dominate the Asia regions or any other region in the world and have been doing everything within her power to stop China growing influence. Due to that the US  have been flexing her Muscles by sending dozens of her most powerful military fleets to the  south China seas to intimidate China and to maintain her influence in the region. The US always wants to rule and doesn't mind destroying any nations that stands as an obstacle to her. Same thing happening in the middle East and I am happy IRAN isn't like the rest of them in the middle East,despite US pressure and intimidation, IRAN were brave enough to acquire a Nuclear nukes for herself and would used it as an influence to scare and reduce the US influence on her soil.

[EarnOnVictor]

With a quick look at GDP charts you can see that Chinese economy has been rapidly growing. For reasons that nobody can understand the US regime sees that as a threat and at some point they declared war on China! It's more like a cold war and one of the battlefields is the economy.

Permit me to talk with regards to what's currently happening between the US and China:

The prosperity of China that was caused by their decades of discipline, planning, dedication, hard work etc., to achieve the total revamping of the economy is now the target of the US. The US is just hating. Trump only made me see the evil in the US that always wants to have that monopoly of power (politics and economy) while the other countries follow.

Now tell me, should a country as big as China follow the US? I don't think so. Must it always be the US? For what reason? The power must be taken by the economy and politics, and it's too late for Trump to harrass China like he did in his first term.

China is rapidly catching up to the US in military technology and economy and the Americans see this as a threat to her national security & personal interests. The major problems between both countries is world dominance, The US doesn't want China to dominate the Asia regions or any other region in the world and have been doing everything within her power to stop China growing influence. Due to that the US  have been flexing her Muscles by sending dozens of her most powerful military fleets to the  south China seas to intimidate China and to maintain her influence in the region. The US always wants to rule and doesn't mind destroying any nations that stands as an obstacle to her. Same thing happening in the middle East and I am happy IRAN isn't like the rest of them in the middle East,despite US pressure and intimidation, IRAN were brave enough to acquire a Nuclear nukes for herself and would used it as an influence to scare and reduce the US influence on her soil.

You butressed my point, I appreciate that, I didn't elaborate in the military the way you did. However, it must all start from being an economic superpower before everything else falls in place, and China is getting there (if not already there). This is hurting the US to the bone, and Trump's administration is trying everything to slow it down as much as possible.

Some of them are late already, especially the economic superpower, China will continue to use its creativity, preparedness, vast population and already gained ground to achieve that better than the US, it's a matter of time. China has always been silent in taking the world gradually by having agreements with countries around the world in many deals (economic, military and economic). Who knew that China has been dominating around Afganistan? That is the reason the US is returning now. I wonder the desperate deal they made with the Taliban government to make that possible.

[Kavelj22]

I would also like to mention that after the crypto market has been also impacted by the trade war, and with China's entry into the conflict, it's becoming clear that it's a global economic war that began with tariffs and growing concerns about how it could spread to more sectors and international transactions. It's only natural that the market is in a state of panic, especially since there have been no reassurances from any party.

[avp2306]

Did you see the latest trend on China guys? on where the Chinese manufacturer expose some famous also luxury brands that it was created on China. See this  https://www.tiktok.com/@lan.furniture6/video/7492968807640698117?_r=1&_t=ZS-8vWYvBpNmev

If videos like this surfacing on Tiktok is true, I guess those famous brands are in trouble especially in this ongoing trade war between China and US. They are the one possibly get affected if their productions rely on  Chinese owned companies.

Curious to know what's going to happen more especially if Trump will not eliminate his craziness towards this tariff implementation.

[pooya87]

I don't understand politics well, but I already understand that Trump is bad for the world. He started the tariff war on purpose. He paused the tariff for 90 days, but the world will suffer.

He is mostly delusional which is the reason for these weird actions. He imposed those tariffs on a lot of countries thinking the US economy will either not suffer or the damage would be minimal. The on Monday when the US markets opened, they all crashed hard which was expected by everyone except delusional Trump team so he had to back off and "pause" them! Specially after his oligarch supporters had their net worth decreased due to the dumps started pressuring him

And you are right, unfortunately all these "wars" is going to make the world suffer and the regular people and the middle class is the first to carry that burden.

He is fueling Israel to destroy the Gaza Strip and announced to move the people of Gaza to somewhere else. I feel like Israel is just a proxy country here. The main country is America, which is destroying Gaza.

Exactly, Israel has always been a proxy of the West specifically US in West Asia to be used to create mayhem. Although it is not a "country" it is an occupying force with an illegitimate terrorist regime that has been carrying out genocide in Palestine for far too long. There are already arrest warrants out for the heads of this regime for genocide and crimes against humanity. But since US is supporting this terrorist regime, they can't be enforced... so the Holocaust continues in Gaza...

Same thing happening in the middle East and I am happy IRAN isn't like the rest of them in the middle East,despite US pressure and intimidation, IRAN were brave enough to acquire a Nuclear nukes for herself and would used it as an influence to scare and reduce the US influence on her soil.

A little correction:
Nuclear weapons and generally any kind of weapons of mass destruction are against Iranian ideology (Islam to be specific) that highly values human life. And the Islamic Republic of Iran has never pursued any type of WMDs nor does the country currently owns any type of WMDs including nukes.
For example in the 1980's when they invaded Iran and specifically US and Germany were arming the invaders with chemical weapons (WMDs) to be used against Iranians, and despite some people saying Iran needs to reciprocate in kind, the orders from the Commander in Chief and Leader was to never even consider them. In one word they are considered "Haram" which is the highest form of prohibition.

From a military perspective, today Iran's military strength is so massive, deadly and most importantly precise that there is no need to use WMDs to neutralize any military threat from any enemy force or coalition of forces like NATO on any place on earth (ie. no range limit).

What is even more interesting is that Iran has had the capability to make an arsenal of nukes for many years but never chose to for the reasons I explained above. For example today Iran can build nuclear warheads in a matter of hours and it would be according to international law, namely article ten of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)...

[God Of Thunder]

He is mostly delusional which is the reason for these weird actions. He imposed those tariffs on a lot of countries thinking the US economy will either not suffer or the damage would be minimal. The on Monday when the US markets opened, they all crashed hard which was expected by everyone except delusional Trump team so he had to back off and "pause" them! Specially after his oligarch supporters had their net worth decreased due to the dumps started pressuring him

And you are right, unfortunately all these "wars" is going to make the world suffer and the regular people and the middle class is the first to carry that burden.

The reason for the tariff was laughable. He talked about it. All those countries were exporting their products to the US, but they were not buying anything from the US. Imagine a country like Bangladesh, a third-world country where the most revenue comes from exporting garment products; what does Mr Trump expect my country to buy from them?

Should we buy a Tesla from them, which costs $100,000, while most people make only $300 per month? Doesn't he think that other countries will impose retaliatory tariffs on his country? China has already imposed retaliatory tariffs on them, which will not help any country.

[Stella Mese]

He is mostly delusional which is the reason for these weird actions. He imposed those tariffs on a lot of countries thinking the US economy will either not suffer or the damage would be minimal. The on Monday when the US markets opened, they all crashed hard which was expected by everyone except delusional Trump team so he had to back off and "pause" them! Specially after his oligarch supporters had their net worth decreased due to the dumps started pressuring him

And you are right, unfortunately all these "wars" is going to make the world suffer and the regular people and the middle class is the first to carry that burden.

when trade tariffs are imposed at the beginning it may not be felt, after a few days the world will start to object to the new tariffs from the US which will be very influential and will slowly bring itself down, and Trump will definitely think again because he did not think in a smaller direction when issuing his policies, with goods increasing drastically and trade wars will result in a shortage of goods and that is burdensome.

[DYING_S0UL]

I don't understand politics well, but I already understand that Trump is bad for the world. He started the tariff war on purpose. He paused the tariff for 90 days, but the world will suffer.

He is mostly delusional which is the reason for these weird actions. He imposed those tariffs on a lot of countries thinking the US economy will either not suffer or the damage would be minimal. The on Monday when the US markets opened, they all crashed hard which was expected by everyone except delusional Trump team so he had to back off and "pause" them! Specially after his oligarch supporters had their net worth decreased due to the dumps started pressuring him

And you are right, unfortunately all these "wars" is going to make the world suffer and the regular people and the middle class is the first to carry that burden.

Chinese imports now face 245% tariffs, Lol..

Trump forgets that China has history dating back to thousands of years and there was no USA then. They can survive well on their own without America. Even if Trump puts 1000% or restricts all imports and exports to China, they wouldn't give a damn. Because we may be able to survive without Americans products, it may be difficult for any countries to survive without Chinese products..

At this point, he is punishing Americans not the Chinese. All this noise is leading to a great fall of the USA and Trump will be the man responsible for it.