My proprietary Average Joe(tm) indicator has changed

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Recently a friend sold for $483. He had heard about the coin years ago and he was disappointed he didn't have any. So he bought late last year around $1000. He was despairing over the IRS news. He never really had faith in the coin and just wanted to make quick money. He had never traded anything before and was often panicking.
                             
I've seen this before with other positions. So many people asked about gold and bought in during the final months in late 2011. Same for silver in the early part of that year.

This behavior helps one pick tops because you can see it in plain day. People always want to get in just at the end of the cycle. It's always a sad and disappointing that they weren't able to ride the wave of good times.

I previously ignored it but now I use it to diversify my positions. Quite contrarian, yes. I would feel bad doing it but it's practically like clockwork.

So now we can get ready for the next level up. Although I've only seen this work on picking tops I guess it can also pick bottoms to short term cycles in the secular bull market that bitcoin has been enjoying.

Anyone with similar experiences?

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[Torque]

Selling to buy back lower to increase ones position is one thing (provided your hunch is right and it does indeed go lower).  But anyone that panics sells when 30%-50% underwater and "locks in" their losses just baffles me... I'm at a complete loss for words.  All because they have zero patience??

[podyx]

Selling to buy back lower to increase ones position is one thing (provided your hunch is right and it does indeed go lower).  But anyone that panics sells when 30%-50% underwater and "locks in" their losses just baffles me... I'm at a complete loss for words.  All because they have zero patience??

tell people u can make them a millionaire in a year and they will think they are a millionaire the next day

this is basic human psychology

[keystroke]

Selling to buy back lower to increase ones position is one thing (provided your hunch is right and it does indeed go lower).  But anyone that panics sells when 30%-50% underwater and "locks in" their losses just baffles me... I'm at a complete loss for words.  All because they have zero patience??

Yea it doesn't make any sense but some people are more adverse to risk and the bitcoin story does seem too good to be true. Also, most don't take the time to understand the underlying technology, either from a computational or economic perspective.

Edit: I don't think it'll go that much lower for long. Me even posting this is evidence of my own form of feeling despair if I must be honest.

[Dalmar]

You are basically observing the Dow Theory at work (see Public Participation and The Panic Phase).

http://www.investopedia.com/university/dowtheory/dowtheory3.asp

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You are basically observing the Dow Theory at work (see Public Participation and The Panic Phase).

http://www.investopedia.com/university/dowtheory/dowtheory3.asp

Let the cycle begin anew.